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Chrono d'Arenberg Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 03-02-2022 09:55
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 Chrono d’Arenberg
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Preview
Welcome to one of the more unique races in the calendar, the Chrono d’Arenberg. It’s a time trial classic, and as such raced in two legs, but the eye-catching thing here are of course the cobbles.
Indeed, ten cobblestone sectors are scattered across the course, including right after the start and going into the finish. Some longer, some shorter, but they will all have an impact on the race, that much is certain. In its inaugural edition in 2018, cobblestone specialists reigned supreme, but in the the previous two years, time trialists with a knack for cobbles have come out on top. With the assumption that it continues like that, here’s a look at the contenders:
| FL | TT | CB | RS |  Cataford | 74 | 79 | 67 | 75 |  Vlatos | 72 | 81 | 68 | 71 |  Lammertink | 74 | 80 | 65 | 76 |  Atkins | 75 | 78 | 66 | 75 |  Ganna | 74 | 78 | 66 | 79 |  Eaton | 75 | 77 | 67 | 76 | | Anderberg | 78 | 76 | 78 | 76 |  Scotson | 72 | 76 | 75 | 70 | | Cavagna | 77 | 76 | 73 | 74 |
Cataford tops the list simply by being the defending champion, and he certainly has the skills to do it again. But it won’t be easy: Vlatos is very similar in skillset to Silvan Dillier, who came short of Cataford by just 9 seconds last year and won the race in 2019.
Lammertink is a worse cobbler than both, though not by much and his flat/resistance combo is pretty good. We then have a slight drop in time trialing skills to Atkins, Ganna and Eaton, but on a good day, they could certainly all be in podium contention - although their floor is also lower, obviously.
We also have some of the strongest hybrid type of riders, who are not as great as the others in this tier in terms of time trialing, but who are solid-to-good cobblers. First and foremost that’s Anderberg, who combines those two skills like no other in the field. However, while that looks great on paper, he was only 10th here last year, almost two minutes behind Cataford, so he will certainly want to improve on that. Scotson and Cavagna similarly may not be able to attack the very top of the rankings, but hope for a good result nonetheless.
| FL | TT | CB | RS |  Zmorka | 74 | 82 | 61 | 75 |  Kittel | 74 | 80 | 56 | 69 |  Brändle | 75 | 79 | 56 | 73 |  Coppel | 73 | 79 | 50 | 72 | | Janse van Rensburg | 70 | 78 | 63 | 71 |  Onodera | 74 | 78 | 61 | 74 | | Kukrle | 72 | 78 | 58 | 74 |  Golovash | 72 | 78 | 55 | 69 |  Balloni | 73 | 78 | 54 | 71 |  Goldstein | 75 | 77 | 63 | 75 |
While good cobblestone skills are likely a requirement to go for the win, it’s not like pure time trialists don’t have any shot at all. Of the guys on this list, Janse van Rensburg even managed to finish 9th last year - he is the best cobbler among these guys, though. However, this should give Zmorka some hope, who is not a complete catastrophe on cobbles and easily the strongest time trialist around. Goldstein and Onodera are certainly riders to watch in that way, too.
Golovash finished 34th here last year, Kittel will hope to do a bit better than that with his stronger time trialing, but what’s his ceiling? It’s the same question that all of Brändle, Coppel, Kukrle and Balloni are faced with as well.
| FL | TT | CB | RS |  Nechita | 73 | 75 | 70 | 69 | | Weinstein | 71 | 75 | 67 | 70 |  Gamper | 75 | 74 | 76 | 76 |  Chokri | 73 | 73 | 74 | 71 | | Peng | 75 | 72 | 75 | 73 | | Harrison | 72 | 72 | 73 | 70 | | Basso | 73 | 72 | 73 | 73 | | Arissol | 74 | 72 | 72 | 73 |  Stavrakakis | 72 | 71 | 72 | 67 |  Kruijswijk | 76 | 71 | 72 | 70 | | Matthews | 72 | 70 | 75 | 67 | | Malecki | 73 | 70 | 73 | 75 |
There are quite a few guys who are neither elite time trialists nor great cobblers, but who combine both in a way that might give them a shot at a good result. Arissol, for instance, returns after finishing 16th, Nechita was just one place behind. This should be encouraging for young guns Gamper and Chokri, as well as many of the other guys on the list. Matthews, for instance, is another one who managed a decent result last year, when he finished 24th.
| FL | TT | CB | RS | | Summerhill | 78 | 59 | 83 | 72 | | Zepuntke | 72 | 65 | 82 | 72 | | Altur | 75 | 63 | 82 | 70 | | Gerts | 77 | 67 | 81 | 80 | | Teunissen | 76 | 64 | 81 | 73 |  Theuns | 72 | 65 | 80 | 73 | | Vanbilsen | 78 | 63 | 80 | 74 | | Sibilla | 70 | 57 | 80 | 67 |  Daniel | 73 | 56 | 80 | 76 |
Historically, we would not expect these guys to do all that well. Sam Bewley was the best cobblestone specialist last year in 13th place, but he was a better cobbler than anyone here bar Summerhill, and a much better time trialist than the American. Altur finished 44th here last year, Gerts 48th, a slightly weaker version of Zepuntke 49th, just to give you a frame of reference. That said, we’ve seen a shift between cobblers and time trialists before, so I would be remissed if I didn’t at least mention them in case the pendulum swings back the other way.
As this preview suggests, lots of riders may have a shot here. I’ve included some of last year’s results to hopefully give you a better feel for the race, but of course that’s before we even talk about whether the results of the last two years have much predictive power in the first place. Either way, hope you’ll enjoy the race. Here’s the full start list:
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Edited by cunego59 on 03-02-2022 10:00
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 03-02-2022 09:58
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Quick question for those who it may concern: I use the gray color for sub-70 stats because the standard black was not all that different from the dark green and I thought it highlighted weaknesses nicely. But I also recently had the thought that this might not be great from an accessibility standpoint? So if any of you have issues reading the grey digits because they're too close in color to the background, please let me know and I'll return to basic black or find another way 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-02-2022 10:01
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My best time trialist, best cobbler and best hybrid at the start, so all bases covered. Let's see what PCM 20 makes of this race 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-02-2022 10:08
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First time here, thought we had a decent shot with Gamper, but there's definitely better hybrids out there. Maybe next year!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 03-02-2022 10:38
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Win Goal! After AC last year i might have gotten a little carried away. However our performances in Goal races have been amongst our best this year. At least i'd hope AC can still be amongst the Top5 to get us some goal points, Anderberg & Vlatos will be tough to beat.
Altur & Matthews i don't expect much from, but there's only so many vaguely cobbled race days on the calendar to send them to. And yes i feel more comfortable sending Altur to a TT at the moment than another Cobbled race, and that sums up this season really.
We're not here to really get points. I'm here specifically for a good Goal result to carry extra budget into the CT i won't be able to spend.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-02-2022 10:49
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Missing this after last year's pain. Wishing to see a good race.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 03-02-2022 12:45
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Interesting to see Zmorka get bib #1. The game doesn't care about the cobbles I guess, but I fear Zmorka will be in for an unpleasant surprise tomorrow 
Would be nice to get a top-10 with him. Thanks for the preview cunego, and good luck to everyone.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 03-02-2022 12:58
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No idea what to expect. Just want some points really, if Brandle can do more than just a few I'll be happy
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| ember |
Posted on 03-02-2022 14:34
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Thank you for that in-depth preview, cunego!
I've got big expectations for Anderberg here! Being very decent here last year as an unmaxed rider proved this should be a tailormade race for him. I've been exciting for this particular race day for years, finally getting to see a maxed Anderberg 
Peng and Lammertink have also been mentioned, and I'm curious to see what they can do here, but it will however they do be overshadowed by finally getting to see what a maxed Anderberg looks like in such a race. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 03-02-2022 18:25
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Big hopes for us, with an improved Ganna trying to break into the Top 10 after being 11th last season and Cavagna aiming to repeat his 7th place from that edition.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-02-2022 19:04
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None of my cobblers have even acceptable TT abilities, so I'm fine with skipping this one this year. Should be very interesting to see how it plays out though.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-02-2022 11:16
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When I selected my bands I must admit I had this one as a total write off, it wasn’t until I saw the results of last season I actually saw some potential.
Knowing how badly the TT’s have worked this season I won’t get my hopes up, but Vlatos on paper one of few big pre race favorites… I am quite eager to see how it turns out.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 04-02-2022 12:14
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Hampus! 
Congrats on the win, ember
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-02-2022 12:28
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What a report, it just kept coming! Sajnok was just superb, didn't expect anything of him here but he did great. I would've prefer just the first leg though
A bit more disappointed in Gamper but to be fair they just switched places. Hope to be here again next year, as both of them will be maxed out then. Thanks again for the report and congrats to Ember!
Edited by Ollfardh on 04-02-2022 12:34
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 04-02-2022 12:33
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Cunego with one of the single best reports in MG history! So brilliantly well done!
That's a lost of Goal Points secured! Don't make a Canadian angry i think is the message here. AC with a crazy second run saved this race. Ok in the season as a whole it's not going to matter, but in terms of pride it helps. Certainly AC is again showing why we have a tough call to make on his future as we relegate.
Matthews was so close to something impressive! The loss of depth points is irrelevant to us in the scheme of things, i was just hoping we could get another top Caribbean result this season. Slightly missed opportunity for the Barbadian but a Top20 is still not too bad.
And heck, even Altur finished in the Top50! Which is not that much worse than his Cheshire performance. Should have spent the 2million training on his TT apparently, he'd be unstoppable!
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-02-2022 12:38
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Can’t make much sense of the result tbh, but great for Puma in the fight for the overall win.
Vlatos in 7th clearly worse than it should have been. Too bad…
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 04-02-2022 12:55
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Forgot there are two legs in time - trials now and I was celebrating Goldstein's podium. 6th is still a very good result though
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-02-2022 13:07
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Looks like it really isn't Los Pollos' day. Was happy with how things were after the first time trial, but then that second leg my riders, definitely Ulloa, took an incredible hit. Know I sound like a crybaby after being the victim here, but imo a second leg for a time trial classic is as arbitrary as having only one, like in every other race.
Thanks for the massive report and congratulations to those that did well. Especially winner ember, must feel great to see Anderberg do exactly what you hoped for!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-02-2022 14:39
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Nechita wasn't signed with this particular race in mind, just as fifth rider in a TTT, but his non-terrible cobblestone squad gives him a surprisingly good result. Zepuntke with a very good first leg as well, while Ligthart is not even going to score high in a regular TT. Plenty of positives.
Congratulations Aker and thank you very much for the report cunego! TTs, and especially those double-staged, can be very difficult to report on without spoiling the ending or repeating yourself over and over but you did very well!
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| ember |
Posted on 04-02-2022 14:44
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Thank you for all the congratulations
That is a big, big highlight for us this season, actual in general for my whole time in the MG. Brilliant to see Anderberg take the win in such a convincing way What a way to conclude his development.
Thank you a lot for the report, cunego! That was intense, and very well covered from start to finish. |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
