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Tirreno-Adriatico Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 29-11-2021 02:26
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 Tirreno-Adriatico
Welcome to the “Race of the Two Seas”, this year the Italian race gets the climbers while it’s French partner is for the puncheurs. It includes a time trial stage but it is just a 5.4k opening prologue, so this is a race for the climbers who prefer to stay off the TT bike. The race GC will likely be decided on the finishing climbs on Stages 5 (Terminillo 16.3k at 7.3%) and Stage 7 (Prati di Tivo 14.5k at 7.5%). On Stage 5 maybe some of the riders will be doing some recon, as the Giro tackles the same climb at the end of Stage 7.
In addition to those two big climbing stages, Stages 2 and 3 will be for the sprinters and Stage 4 is a mid-mountain stage where the first GC shakeout should occur. Stage 6, from Ameilia to Cheti, is the primary obstacle other than the mountains, at 245k it is the longest stage, and the last third features multiple punchy climbs. The diesel climbers will need to be at their best not to lose time.
 Herklotz won this race in 2019 when it last featured the big climbs and he is back to try and become the fourth two-time winner (F. Schleck, Ponzi, Trofimov). His team will undoubtedly have targeted Stage 6 as the key because that is the stage where he has significant advantages over his biggest GC rivals,  Morton and  Dombrowski, as they both fit into the diesel category. The German beat them both in 2019 with Dombrowski 3rd and Morton 6th.
 Pluchkin is the 4th big name on the start list, he won the race in 2017 when Dombrowski was again 3rd and Herklotz 7th. But the Moldovan was a younger man then and this year he will be challenged on Stage 6 as well as being the weakest climber of the top 4.
Although with Padun on also on the favorites list, Pluchkin has some of the best team support.
While those four top the list they are not the only contenders:
| MT | HI | RS | ST | PR | | Herklotz | 84 | 81 | 80 | 79 | 78 | | Morton | 84 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 73 | | Dombrowski | 84 | 75 | 78 | 80 | 71 | | Pluchkin | 83 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 77 |  Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 80 | 76 | 79 |  Guldhammer | 81 | 77 | 75 | 74 | 71 | | Padun | 81 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 65 |  Olivier | 81 | 76 | 80 | 76 | 69 |  Godoy | 81 | 76 | 76 | 75 | 67 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 65 |  Yates | 80 | 76 | 80 | 79 | 71 |  Roglic | 80 | 76 | 76 | 75 | 70 |  Areruya | 79 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 65 |
Cattaneo will look to gain ground in the prologue but will be challenged on Stage 6 while Areruya is the opposite. The Xero rider is the second strongest puncheur in the field after Herklotz and the pair of them have a significant edge over the rest of the field in that category.
The remaining riders are all strong climbers who can’t quite match the top 4 and will likely be fighting it out for the 5 to 10th.
Before the mountains there are two stages that belong to the sprinters. And although there are only 2 stages the sprint field is pretty deep:
| FL | SP | AC | RS | PL |  Coquard | 73 | 84 | 83 | 74 | 79 | | Groenewegen | 73 | 82 | 81 | 71 | 72 | | Swift | 72 | 82 | 79 | 67 | 68 |  Bewley | 76 | 81 | 80 | 73 | 69 | | Enger | 73 | 81 | 78 | 73 | 77 | | Kragh Andersen | 77 | 81 | 77 | 74 | 75 | | Kemboi | 78 | 80 | 80 | 77 | 81 |  Moser | 72 | 80 | 79 | 69 | 72 |  Petit | 76 | 80 | 78 | 72 | 66 | | Rowe | 78 | 79 | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Scully | 74 | 79 | 80 | 70 | 77 |  Bertilsson | 73 | 79 | 77 | 71 | 65 |
Coquard is the top dog on paper and he will also have been attracted by the prologue. That stage will also interest Kemboi and a few others. In sprint terms Groenewegen stands out as Coquard’s main rival. But you have to go down the list to Bewley to find a sprinter with two clear lead out riders ( Cisse and Grosser). Time will tell if that matters.
The race also attracts a wealth of prologue riders, in addition to those already noted. The best of these are  Andersen,  Chavanne and Leung. But the full list is daunting:
| PL | | Andersen | 83 | | Chavanne | 82 | | Leung | 82 | | Kemboi | 81 | | Coquard | 79 | | Tanfield | 79 | | Kukrle | 79 | | Zakarin | 79 | | Stoltz | 79 | | Sergent | 79 | | Goldstein | 79 | | Cattaneo | 79 | | Ciccone | 79 | | Larsen | 78 | | Golovash | 78 | | Herklotz | 78 | | Prado | 78 |
Due to some technical issues this race got delayed. I will post stage 1 about this time tomorrow and then try and go to 2 stages a day to catch up.
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-11-2021 08:40
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World Champion
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With a prologue and 2 flat stages to start the race we had to bring Coquard. But as we know it's a gamble I expect nothing really. Seeing how poorly Vlatos performed in Paris-Nice I probably should have brought him here instead, but we had to atleast try to spread out some "quality".
I'm interested in how well David de la Cruz can do in a race like this. He isn't listed as one of the favorites, and obviously isn't one either - but he does have a better PRL stat than most of the lower tier favorites, and if the race is relatively uneventful (as many bumpy stages have been), he might do alright due to the difference in seconds gained on the opener. But then again, our TT performances have been all over the place so he might even be beat by the likes of Padun, Areruya and Berhane in the prologue.
I hope we can get to see Giannoutsos and maybe Rochas among the top 10 U25 riders. They can't beat Areruya, Aular and Sivakov, but we might be in an OK position to fight for whatever will be from then on. More likely outside the top 5 though.
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-11-2021 10:50
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Grand Tour Champion
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Easily the most neglected race during my season planning. It's basically the prologue and then hoping for miracles. We bought both Chavanne and Stoltz here because it looked like the better alternative of the two clashing prologues and because i wanted to force the AI focus entirely on Eislers in Paris-Nice without any bad excuses.
After that, maybe Hofstetter can get some sort of result in the sprints. But with the strong sprinter startlist that looks unlikely. I considered bringing Eislers here as it would have fit his RD count a lot better than P-N but looks like i made the right decision there.
I also considered for quite some time whether Taaramae or Chiarello would be good here but figured that both of them have other options that could make slightly more sense - particularly as i expected a strong startlist here and the lack of TTing does not benefit Taaramae at all. So it's just Vosekalns here with the rare leadership opportunity. He has proven in past years that he loves to join breaks as "mountain leader" and i hope he will do so again on this occasion. Going for the KoM jersey would be lovely.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 29-11-2021 11:26
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The startlist is a lot weaker as expected. Herklotz should have a walk in the park, this could be a crucial race for him & Puma with 3-4 stage wins.
We have Scully as our best rider here which says a lot, but actually hope for Villella to try something and Inkelaar to maybe finish in the Top3 of the u25 classification.
Also never would've thought knockout would say that "the lack of TTing does not benefit" his team and he thus doesn't send his leaders, but oh boy times have changed. 
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-11-2021 11:43
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Croatia14 wrote:
The startlist is a lot weaker as expected. Herklotz should have a walk in the park, this could be a crucial race for him & Puma with 3-4 stage wins.
Also never would've thought knockout would say that "the lack of TTing does not benefit" his team and he thus doesn't send his leaders, but oh boy times have changed.
I'm so sorry 
And i second you, I'm also surprised about the rather weak climbers startlist as i had riders like Lecuisinier or Kudus as likely contenders. For purely selfish reasons i dislike those decisions 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-11-2021 12:09
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I had Lecuisinier here for a long time too, but ended up with Colombia + Tasmania rather than Tirreno + Lombardia as I saw Lombardia as the biggest risk of getting low points.
Lecuisinier scored 110 points from Tasmania, so it might be the wrong decision, but I still think he will score better in Colombia - Where I suspect he will be the rider aiming for 3 stagewins and not Herklotz.
But I must admit that every year I get frustrated when it comes to the triple-header because I tend to fancy other GC races and thus bring some handicapped Festina-session. I really miss the time where I had duothreats (or more) like Contador/Castaño/Ardila or Contador/Fothen/Serpa or Spilak/Ricco or Spilak/Lecuisinier. The past 3-4 seasons I have had riders like Bongiorno, Boily, Chamoro, Vasyliv, De la Cruz and Mavrikakis as my secondary leaders. It does't quite give the same excitement for me. Maybe that is something I have to consider for next season when I explode in anger over sprints and timetrials
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-11-2021 13:36
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Tour de France Champion
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We're here as a wildcard and we've got everyone we could stack here due to the lack of race day usage. Guldhammer debuts for us against tough competition but with the pressure off entirely. Hopefully that allows him to ease into his role. He certainly has more mountain support than he ever will in a PCT race, so hopefully that helps. Warbasse, Aranburu, Eg, and Olesen are all hungry to make their mark here.
Then we've got AKA riding his first PT (not counting PTHC) sprints. Hopefully that doesn't destroy his confidence after a strong start to the year.
Assuming Guldhammer is not in the GC title fight, we'll be rooting for Herklotz to take care of business to, as Kamna will be helping him defeat us.
Really excited to be here and see what my guys can do!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| roturn |
Posted on 29-11-2021 16:06
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Olivier should be able to fight for a top10 here for sure.
IF he plays out his advantage over some on the hard hilly stages, a top5 might even be possible.
In addition to Groenewegen for the sprints and 2-3 options for a strong prologue, this hopefully becomes the best of the triple clash races for my team. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 29-11-2021 17:11
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SotD wrote:
I had Lecuisinier here for a long time too, but ended up with Colombia + Tasmania rather than Tirreno + Lombardia as I saw Lombardia as the biggest risk of getting low points.
I really wish you would have gone with the second option
It looks like a clear shot at the podium for Dombrowski here so anything but that will be a major disappointment.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 29-11-2021 18:56
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World Champion
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Here we are!
The first three days in the world champion's jersey for Silvio, because ideally he'll have something even more important to wear after stage 4.
I quite enjoy the startlist here, particularly with the combination of a short prologue and a hilly stage to kick the GC battle off being particularly to Herklotz' liking.
The few strong puncheurs that have made the trip to Italy should concede some time in the prologue already, while the strong TTers like Cattaneo and Pluchkin are the weakest puncheurs among the favorites.
This hopefully means that even if Herklotz doesn't win the lottery in the downhill sprint on day 4, sufficiently aggressive racing on those hills should see him be the best placed rider in the front group to take over the lead.
If he can't drop Pluchkin and Cattaneo there, that'd be a problem indeed.
Being in the lead up Terminillo would set us up very nicely to control the race from then on, and both major climbs in this week have the perfect profile of steep final 5km while flattening out under the flamme rouge.
If the incline's not enough of a springboard to make the difference, Silvio's sprint can be.
Furthermore, the two hilly stages are also very long days in the saddle, which suits his endurance well.
Beyond the first days in the WC jersey, I'm thrilled to follow this race as it's indeed the first time my current favorite rider directly supports my past favorite rider!
Lennard is surely excited to aid Silvio here, and I can't wait to see how things will pan out and whether we'll already get a nice shot of them together.
We obviously bring our strongest climbing support with Vasyliv/Stüssi, and fill the team up with the best of the rest in Egger, Mager, Madouas and our second loanee Zimmermann.
I think it's definitely worth mentioning that this means that we field a whopping six Germans in one of our most vital races of the season, alongside a Swiss and a Frenchman who certainly didn't grow up too far from our focus nation either. 
It's not a surprise that this is a win goal for 2021, and while there has to be some optimism involved in that prediction, I do believe that smart racing and a great spring form for Silvio can see us aim for the GC victory, three days in the lead and three stage wins here.
Thank you for the preview Ulrich!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-11-2021 08:42
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Scully can't surprise sadly, but glad to see Leung doing well here!
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| SotD |
Posted on 30-11-2021 09:37
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If Croatias theory is correct on how sprinting AI works, then I suspect this might have been too strong of a start for Coquard. On paper it was perfect though as he sits in a great position to take a stagewin and the leaders jersey (and points) tomorrow, but I fear he won't despite being the clear and undisputed pre-stage favorite!
Overall a solid performance. I would have liked to see a little bit more from David de la Cruz. Looking at the competitors he should have taken 10 seconds off the time, and those 10 seconds could well be the difference between him and some of those ahead of him with similar climbing stats. A top 10 will be almost impossible, but maybe top 15 can still be achieved.
Giannoutsos and Farantakis both with strong rides here, albeit not for any stage points. Giannoutsos in 3rd in U25 though is a nice start. I suspect he won't be fighting for the jersey, but from a roleplay perspective he is in a good position to give it a go.
I'm both excited and scared to read the next report in this race as it's the key for us as to whether this will be a good race or a dissapointing race.
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-11-2021 10:59
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5th on the day by Chavanne, 10th on the day by Stoltz is a completely decent result but misses out on the big points by 1-2 spots. Really cant complain about the result but it still feels a bit underwhelming after the other prologues were pretty shit so far.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 30-11-2021 11:15
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Really good to see an actually realistic prologue. Kemboi and Ciccone with big underperformances, but the other 11 79+ riders all in the Top 14, and the Top 6 on the stage are the Top 7 names on the favorites list minus Kemboi. Especially after a few weird TT results so far, this is a good sign.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 30-11-2021 12:15
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Dombrowski not off to a great start there.
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| roturn |
Posted on 30-11-2021 12:15
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Seems like Groenewegen went far too early for no reason as his short lead didn`t age well.
Vermeersch and Olivier both were able to "sprint" to a decent result, which shows, they were still having some energy left and the leadout could have last longer.
I guess it was some head wind here as the difference between his lead and dropping back was huge.
Congrats Kemboi, nice win by him and abviously not ideal to see those 3 top sprinters all struggling the same fate.
Thanks for the report! Hopefully tomorrow a bit better from Groenewegen. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 30-11-2021 13:21
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Hmm not good enough. No stagewin tomorrow = a bad race.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 30-11-2021 13:41
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Like the start from the team. Guldhammer with a very solid prologue, which is not his specialty. AKA was out of position going into the sprint and only manages 10th. I wouldn't like that in this startlist at PTHC, but sicne we don't have to care about points, I'll take a PT top 10 as a positive! Not to mention, Cannister continues to excite by going in the break several times despite his lack of strength and young age. Love that spirit!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 30-11-2021 14:08
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Excellent start to the race with 4th places for both Tanfield and Holloway, the KoM jersey for Lampawog and additionally the overperformance of Rucigaj on Stage 1. No points for the latter, but always nice to see.
First mountains here for a trained Godoy. No advance expectations but the startlist could have been worse, so being in the Top 10 fight would be great.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 30-11-2021 15:24
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Great start! Had of course hoped that Kragh could take the win in the prologue, but a podium is always good. And then Larsen showing his qualities and taking the lead in the U25.
Surprised to see Trondsen suddenly popping up in the sprint, and he really delivered. I thought the semi-hard sprint stages in the third week of a GT would be his kind of stage, but guess this works as well!
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