I made predictions for PCT last year, but never posted them. Since they weren't half bad I decided to make a short post this time. There is no big mathematics involved in this prediction. Mainly I looked at all the team's riders and gave them a score based on the riders and my opinion on the manager making use of those riders. So quite subjective.
So the ranking below is very much subjective. The coefficient is a relative average score for each team and gives an idea which teams are very evenly matched. Let's have a look.
Rank
Team
Coeff.
1
Aker - MOT
1,31
2
Polar
1,22
3
Team UBS
1,20
4
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
1,20
5
cycleYorkshire
1,18
6
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
1,16
7
Binance Cycling
1,12
8
Assa Abloy
1,09
9
Kraftwerk Man Machine
1,08
10
Minions
1,06
11
Los Pollos Hermanos
1,01
12
Duolingo
1,01
13
Voyagin - Bird
1,00
14
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
1,00
15
Red Bull Zalgiris
0,98
16
Philips - Force India
0,92
17
Eurosport x GCN
0,92
18
Bralirwa - Stevens
0,90
19
Project: Africa
0,90
20
Tryg - Ritter Sport
0,86
21
Carrefour - ESPN
0,85
22
Sauber Petronas Racing
0,83
23
Cedevita
0,82
24
Jura - Fiat
0,81
25
Podium Ambition
0,81
26
Indosat Ooredoo
0,75
Given the way the coeff has fallen I will split the division in a few tier groups and just talk briefly about each group of teams.
1st Place
Aker - MOT are at the top of the table with a bit of gap to everyone behind them. They have leaders on multiple terrains, good depth and perhaps the best rider in the division in Kwiatkowski. Should be a safe bet for promotion at least.
Places 2-6
The following 5 teams are the other big promotion favourites that will fight for the remaining 4 spots that guarantee automatic promotion. All of them possess top leaders with Polar on top as the team with the strongest depth among them.
Places 7-10
All four of these teams are going to compete for the promotion spots also. Binance might have the best sprinting combo in the division with a lot of depth on different terrains behind that. Kraftwerk already showed that their approach works from last year and they are no worse off, while Sykkel's team always seems to hover outside the top 5.
Places 11-15
These teams should place firmly in mid table and might challenge for the top 10. Los Pollos got the edge in this group with a terrific leader trio of Zmorka, Manninen and Spilak. A great transfer season for the newly promoted team, very similar can be said of Carlsberg.
Places 16-19
Three teams from CT + Eurosport x GCN in this group and all have done good jobs as they all possess top riders. From Bobridge and Kelderman to Stallaert and Blythe expect them to be in direct battle for the same places in the table. While they might be looking over their shoulder more than looking up, they still should have enough for safety.
Places 20-25
For some people the most exciting and nerve wracking part of the table, the relegation battle. A total of 6 teams here for only 2 more safe spots. Tryg top this group with an incredible duo of Skujins and Wellens, as long as they get at least something from the other riders then they have a great chance of staying up. Carrefour will rely on Van Stayen and impressive depth that carried them to a CT title last year, will this be enough in PCT?
Sauber have good riders but will only mountains and hills suffice? My own team is very much dependent on whether Beltran can improve in a tougher puncheur field and underperformers like Alarcon and Saber. Jura will rely on Quintana and Reinhardt, those two need to perform. Their depth is solid, but the leader duo is crucial. Lastly, Podium have 3 awesome leaders in Ewan, Altur and Cataford, but the depth behind them is sparse.
26th Place
Indosat spent a huge portion of their wage acquiring Dunbar. He is a great rider no doubt, but will he be enough? They need a great season from Howard + 2nd tier leaders like Jensen and Warchol might need to overperform.
So that's it. A short, simple prediction of the 2021 PCT division. I for one hope that my own team's prediction is better than last year when I placed 8 spots lower than predicted. Of course I won't complain if I finish a couple spots higher this time
Feel free to leave a comment on your own team or anything else that caught your eye
Yep, i'd have us basically at the bottom as well. Gives me hope you value my managerial skill a lot
Coefficiants based on a teams overall strength is tricky, as i think a few of those teams will be way off. Purely because each good result for one rider means another misses out, eg i think one of Eurosport/Braliwra will benefit hugely whereas a Duolingo/Voyagin might be in for some struggles.
But yes your Top5 & Bottom 5 seem pretty much accurate.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and coefficiants, redordead!
I’ll obviously be very happy if this turns out true I’m also confident in our promotion chances, but our team also have clear weaknesses. We’re thin in several races counting pure numbers, and I’m curious to see how AI plays it out when we’ve only got 7 or 6 riders at the start, but still one of the favourites (Kwiatkowski). Really hope it won’t affect his scorings too much, as that can really cost us if it does.
Based on your coefficiants, it’s clear the promoted teams did a very good job this transfer season, making themselves competitive as a PCT team. Will be exciting and fun how this compares to the final results when the season is done
Well, I obviously hope the bottom 5 aren't exactly accurate - it would mean I've done a really bad job during transfers, being the worst promoted team... But with a coefficient difference of 0.05 between 20th and 25th, a lot will come down to planning and luck I guess. I just hope Moscon won't just be a "depth" rider, but our actual leader
But I pretty much agree on the regions of most teams. LPH seems a bit high; Manninen would need a copy&paste season for this I guess. But I see them in a fight with Carlsberg and Philips for the best promoted team, indeed.
RB Zalgiris and Philips so close to each other is cool as well, so the season definitely won't get boring
At the top of the table, I definitely hope that UBS will get back up! Aker and Polar should be promotion favorites, though. Anyway, it will be a tense season I guess, and I'm looking forward to it
Agree mostly on the Top 10 although I would have them in a different order behind Aker. Don't really agree with the bottom half, especially positions 15 onwards. Don't think you will relegate, for one Don't think 7 of the 9 promoted teams will survive either. I think 4 of us will go down again, 3 at the minimum. Agree though that Indosat is probably the non-promoted team who look most in trouble.
Looking forward to cozying up next to our Lithuanian friends all season long. Hopefully some good sense will rub off on us for future glory
Well, based on the coefficients, you have us as an exactly average PCT team. And well, that's pretty much my exact goal, so I would be very happy with that result.
No back to back promotion candidates this year, although some former PT teams are in the relegation zone. Should be interesting to see which CT teams stay up. I hope I'm one of them.
Overall I think PCT is a lot more evenly balanced and spread out in terms of talent compared to most years. The coefficients in general might have a narrower range and standard deviation than usual.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Oh I like it, if you offered me 3rd right now I would definitely take it! I wonder if the high ranking is because of my team's depth in spite of the skill of the manager
One of two,, either I'm not seeing things very well or you're being too optimistic about my team.
In my opinion I think that at best we should finish in the middle of the table, somewhere between 12th and 16th place.
But one thing I know, if it were possible I would sign an agreement not even to hold the season and we would take the places from this preview
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
