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Benelux Challenge - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 06-05-2021 09:06
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Welkom in België, welkom in Nederland, and since I don’t speak Luxembourgish, welkom in Luxemburg! A very interesting six day stage race that includes a prologue, flat stages, hilly stages and even cobbles, no idea who will win this! The startlist is quite small, with only 120 riders, and a lot of them weak domestiques. The amount of riders that are clear favourites is quite low. Only five I think, with one joker. As there are so many different terrains, we’ll just cover each one of them, and I’ll tell you who I think are the favourites to win the seventh edition of the Benelux Challenge! First, we’ll have a look at the prologue specialist.
| TT | Prologue |  Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 78 |  Dumoulin | 78 | 78 |  Li | 78 | 78 | | Kalaba | 70 | 78 | | Ghyselinck | 77 | 77 |  Quaade | 78 | 76 |  Nechita | 76 | 76 |  Kireva | 75 | 76 | | Rosas | 75 | 76 |  Mygind | 72 | 76 |
The race starts with a prologue in Maastricht, home base of Minions manager Marco, and it shows. Three of his riders on the list of prologue specialists, with the top favourite probably being Janse van Rensburg. Other favourites for the stage win and first yellow jersey are all CT guys: Dumoulin, Li, Ghyselinck and Quaade. None of those should be looking to win the GC though. Let’s find out who the best sprinters of the pack should be.
| FLAT | HILL | SPR | ACC |  Kristoff | 74 | 67 | 82 | 77 |  Gaviria | 76 | 72 | 81 | 84 |  Kump | 74 | 77 | 81 | 80 |  Salleh | 70 | 59 | 80 | 80 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 71 | 80 | 78 | | Kalaba | 74 | 69 | 79 | 79 | | Stauff | 73 | 64 | 79 | 79 |  Houle | 78 | 75 | 79 | 78 | | Canelon | 77 | 57 | 78 | 83 | | Boev | 72 | 65 | 78 | 78 |
Top favourite for the sprint seems to be Lierse’s Gaviria. Although the flat stage(s) finish in The Netherlands, you never know if he can survive until the end in stage three to give his team win on home soil in Leuven. Kristoff and Salleh might be strong competitors, but let’s not forget about Kump. The Slovenian rider is probably the second strongest sprinter on the list, and the first GC favourite we come across, as he is a good puncheur and not too shabby on the cobbles. Winning seconds in (a) sprint(s) could be vital towards winning the GC and keeping his team in the relegation battle.
Van Asbroeck should also not be underestimated, while a calm second stage might be in favour of Kalaba, who could have two chances to take yellow in the first two stages. Houle is another good sprinter who is a decent puncheur, but he won’t be Xero’s leading man, as we’ll see later. Boev is Philips’ free agent, and has already been performing very strong in C2 and C2HC. Can he perform against PCT riders as well?
Time to take a look at one of the more deciding factors of the stage race, the riders’ puncheur capacities.
| MTN | HIL | COB | ACC | | Claeys | 66 | 82 | 63 | 71 |  Di Maggio | 65 | 82 | 51 | 75 | | Benoot | 75 | 78 | 76 | 71 | | Juul-Jensen | 70 | 78 | 70 | 79 | | Barbin | 68 | 78 | 57 | 76 | | Tsatevich | 62 | 77 | 75 | 75 | | Kump | 66 | 77 | 73 | 80 | | Mutsumine | 69 | 77 | 58 | 71 | | Felline | 66 | 77 | 57 | 78 | | Caruso | 68 | 77 | 53 | 76 | | Skjerping | 70 | 77 | 52 | 65 | | Dieteren | 70 | 77 | 51 | 66 | | Roux | 64 | 77 | 51 | 74 | | Selander | 68 | 76 | 63 | 76 |  Lavery | 71 | 76 | 63 | 77 |
Purely looking at their puncheur skills, the top favourites should be Claeys and Di Maggio. They might be able to get some nice stage results, but as they are not the best cobblers at all, a strong GC position should probably be out of reach, definitely for the Italian. Looking at some names below them we find four of the, according to me, GC favourites. Benoot, Juul-Jensen, Tsatevich and Kump. As explained earlier, the Slovenian could win vital bonification seconds on flat stages, but is it enough to compete with the all-roundedness of Benoot on home soil? That remains to be seen. It is interesting to see that two of the pre race favourites in a C1 race are CT riders.
Still one favourite and one joker to go though, and we’ll find those in the list of the cobblers.
| HIL | COB | STA | RES | | Summerhill | 73 | 83 | 76 | 72 | | Machado | 63 | 79 | 72 | 67 | | Bush | 63 | 78 | 75 | 73 | | Debesay | 74 | 77 | 75 | 79 | | Kristoff | 67 | 77 | 73 | 69 | | Schreurs | 67 | 77 | 75 | 75 | | Van Lerberghe | 66 | 77 | 75 | 74 |  Insausti | 64 | 77 | 76 | 73 | | Benoot | 78 | 76 | 75 | 74 | | Tsatevich | 77 | 75 | 74 | 73 | | Paprstka | 69 | 75 | 74 | 70 |
Stage four has some cobbles, and it quite hilly. If the break doesn’t take it, Summerhill is the clear favourite for the stage win. Nevertheless, I consider the American a joker for the GC instead of a favourite because of his terrible prologue stat. Debesay should finish well on this stage as well as in the other hilly stages and the prologue, therefore the Xero rider is one of my five GC favourites. The other favourites for both the stage and GC win should be Benoot and Tsatevich.
Enough previewing and talking to myself, I’ll leave the rest of it up to you. Here’s the startlist of the Benelux Challenge, good luck to everyone!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 06-05-2021 09:18
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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Oof, should've came here, would've possibly been a great race for us
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 06-05-2021 09:37
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Sprinters race 
Nemolito's cursed reporting 
It's not Bonifazio 
ITS NOT BONIFAZIO
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 06-05-2021 09:42
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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A contender for every terrain (except cobbles because of a clash with Macskako) which could bring us a lot of points or backfire immensely.
Funny how you call Maastricht our home base when the second stage literally starts in my hometown 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 06-05-2021 11:46
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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AI please work, AI please work, AI please work...
Thanks for the preview Nemo, sure the reports will be great as ever no matter the outcome. If this race works out as I know it could then it will be a great last hurrah to give us a bucket of points before the late season slide away from the top 5 begins. If not then the slide begins here 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 06-05-2021 14:02
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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This race is most likely the determining race in regard to whether or not we stay up. Need a mega race from Kumpi!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 06-05-2021 15:44
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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When I was picking my C1 races, I singled this one out as where we needed to be. It's not just because this is where Marc De Maar got his first win in Carlsberg colors, but because we have a rider who should be uniquely capable of performing well here.
There really aren't that many cobbles, but my hope is that they're just enough to pop most of the pure puncheurs, but not enough to pop JJ (at least for considerable time). It could really go either way though, we'll just have to see. Consistency is key for us, and the startlist isn't too packed, so he has a shot even if he can't match the best on any given day.
Benoot is the obvious favorite I think, and generally I agree with your assessment Nemo. Tsatevich and Kump are good options too, and Kump could definitely gain some bonus seconds if he sprints. Debesay is also a contender, but I'd put him more on JJ's level with just a different rider type since the hills are more prevalent than cobbles.
Lastly, we probably should have brought Bertilsson, but in planning I still thought giving him to AKA might matter.
I'd say top 5 is the goal here, but we'll see what happens. Thanks for the preview! |
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 07-05-2021 09:23
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2907
Joined: 15-07-2007
PCM$: 300.00
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Hahaha, already by far the worst in the team standings and no riders even close to top 10. Hopefully we can only climb from here 
Thank you for the detailted prologue report! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 07-05-2021 09:25
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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Can every race be a prologue next season
Four riders in the top eight and all jerseys, that must be a new personal record. Did not expect Rosas to be first but an early start apparently did good. Kalaba in a good position to defend that jersey tomorrow.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 07-05-2021 09:36
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Congrats Marco!
Average stuff from us. I was wondering why I didn't send WVA here and realised I probably misread the prologue as a flat sprinter stage
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 07-05-2021 10:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Kalaba for the Minions, awesome ride!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 20:51
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 07-05-2021 11:42
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Love to see another Jams stage placing after the sprint in Slovenie, hope he can have a good race here as it’s not a bad one for his skillset really. Obviously the big focus on Debesay who made an ok start here. Looking forward to the rest of it and big congrats Marco!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 07-05-2021 13:15
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Quaade continuing to do nothing for me, but cool to see Sulvaran make the top 15! JJ not too bad, beating Benoot, Tsatevich, and Summerhill at least.
Congrats to Marco, now to the real racing!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 08-05-2021 07:23
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
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Damn I forgot I was in this race...
Best ITT result of the season for Dumoulin, still should've won .
Thanks for the report Nemo and congrats Marco
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 08-05-2021 09:54
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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Well that was another special stage, we work so hard to get a gap, then throw away the gap and the stage win because we don't want to lead out Gaviria too soon. Thanks for the report!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 08-05-2021 10:40
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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Kalaba just wanted to take a picture with the manager, no need to start chasing him like crazy 
Bit of a wonky race from him but at least he's now in yellow. Still looking good on all classifications but the polka dot, but even I can climb up the Amerongse Berg with my normal bike so there shouldn't even be a KoM there
Thanks Nemolito, congrats beagle!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 08-05-2021 13:46
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
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Well good things don't last with Dumoulin. Perhaps the bigger loss is Bovenhuis also losing 3 minutes as we were hoping he'd be able to keep up on both the hills and the cobbles for a good result.
Congrats beagle and thanks for the report!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 08-05-2021 14:29
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Congrats to Beagle, good move, hoepfully Kump will be able to produce a better result further into the race, Peak holding KoM is a nice bonus even if it's only going to amount for 3 points at the end of the race!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 08-05-2021 14:40
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Nice to see JJ being attentive and well positioned here. I had no belief that the gaps would hold even if they actually did because for flat rated stages gaps just aren't given even when they exist. Top 10 on the stage is cool, though it doesn't score anything for us. I'll take it though if it's any indicator of JJ's fitness going into the next 3 days.
This is the kind of stage where a late attack might have actually worked, so it's not too bad to see it happen. But then again, I don't have a sprinter here.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 08-05-2021 15:08
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Given that every point counts for us, I'd be content if we get something, anything from this race
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Benelux Challenge
