|
Hong Kong Challenge Discussion
|
| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-11-2020 21:06
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
|
 Hong Kong Challenge
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Vincenzo Nibali | Euskaltel - Elior | | 2018 | Leopold König | Valio - DeLaval |
Edition three of the Hong Kong Challenge, which will be held despite protests in the city and an increasing number of COVID cases. The past two years it was held at C2 level, but now it has been promoted to C1 status. The general concept of the race hasn't changed, a time trial sandwiched between two hilly stages. A total of 185 riders spread over 24 teams, at a ratio of 2:1 in favor of the PCT teams (16 vs 8). Our most recent winner Nibali cannot defend his title as his team Riccione did not receive an invite for this race, but inaugural winner Konig can become the first rider to win the race more than once, though one of the other 184 would love to become the third winner of the race.
Profiles
The three stages take the riders across the entire country. The first stage starts on Lantau Island and finishes in downtown Hong Kong, but the riders have to conquer some hills. Especially in the final part of the stage, the hills follow each other in quick succession. The second stage is 20-kilometer long time trial which will be an important stage for the GC classification. The final stage takes the riders to the Tai Mo Shan Waterfall. This stage contains less hills than the first stage, but the finish is uphill on a climb close to mountainous, at least by previous results there.
Startlist
| Puncheurs | HL | MO | TT | Climbers | MO | HL | TT |  Kelderman | 82 | 71 | 70 |  Denifl | 83 | 75 | 71 |  Izagirre | 81 | 74 | 77 |  Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 |  Prevar | 80 | 71 | 62 |  Preidler | 80 | 78 | 58 |  Borges | 80 | 70 | 60 | Padun | 80 | 77 | 65 |  Slagter | 79 | 78 | 66 |  Seboka | 80 | 62 | 53 |  Chaves | 79 | 76 | 68 |  Yates | 79 | 76 | 71 |  Moscon | 79 | 73 | 66 | Marquez | 79 | 70 | 69 | | Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 70 | 66 |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 68 | | Turgis | 79 | 66 | 65 | Konig | 78 | 74 | 73 |  Dyrnes | 78 | 72 | 61 |  Cort Nielsen | 78 | 74 | 72 |  Eiking | 78 | 69 | 65 | Lunke | 78 | 72 | 73 | | Flügel | 78 | 69 | 62 | Manfredi | 78 | 65 | 65 | | Mehr-Wenige | 78 | 66 | 63 |  Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 | | Watson | 78 | 65 | 68 | Faiers | 77 | 70 | 74 |  Kanerva | 78 | 64 | 70 |  Nepomnyachsniy | 76 | 73 | 76 |  Areruya | 77 | 77 | 65 |  Uwizeyimana | 76 | 72 | 74 | | Bazhkou | 75 | 69 | 76 |  Dunbar | 75 | 75 | 75 |
Both puncheurs and climbers have a chance in this race, the first stage specialized for the former and the third for the latter. The time trial in between is also important, but a pure time trialists will lose much more on the other stages than a puncheur or climber on the time trial. Hence, we only look at the former two at contenders for the overall victory.
Kelderman participates out of his CT comfort zone, but here he is the best puncheur as well. His time trial is good enough to avoid major time loss. The first stage is where he wants to gain his time, get in yellow jersey and defend from there on.
Izagirre is his main challenger. The main advantage he has over the Dutchman is his time trial, which is the best amongst all puncheurs. Following the others on stage one, then striking on stage two and get enough of a gap to emerge victorious after stage three?
Moving over at the climbers side we have an almost identical favorite duo. Denifl is the best climber and not terrible on puncheurs and time trials. He has an opposite gameplan to Kelderman, limiting the loss on the first stages and going all-in on the final.
Then there is the variation which is better in time trials, in this case Cattaneo. If he survives the first stage in relative good shape, the race is all his.
On both ends we also have two deuteragonists who excel in their specific discipline, but cannot get the aerodynamics right on the time trial bike. On the puncheurs side it are Prevar and Borges, on the climbers side it are Preidler and Padun.
Riders are not limited to just being good on one discipline. Slagter is amongst the top in both hills and mountains, only his time trial limiting him from becoming an outright favorite. Chaves, Areruya and Yates are similar riders, with only the latter bringing some time trial capabilities to the table.
Dunbar really cannot choose what his favorite discipline is, which in a race like this might be a real asset. Is he a puncheur, a climber, a time trialist? He is all three, and all qualities are necessary to win.
Special mention for former winner Konig, who might not be likely to repeat his win but it wouldn't be entirely outlandish either. His only problem is that he most likely is not leader of his team, unless Adastra anticipates Preidler's time trial loss. The best rider who also participated last year is Borisavljevic, though he only finished 22nd, six minutes behind his then-teammate Nibali.
| Favorites | TT | HL | MO | Outsiders | TT | HL | MO | | Paillot | 80 | 71 | 70 | Golovash | 78 | 60 | 60 | | Howson | 80 | 65 | 59 | Pokälä | 77 | 71 | 64 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 60 | 57 | Cornu | 77 | 68 | 63 | | Mullen | 79 | 70 | 62 |  Oram | 77 | 64 | 56 | | Robert | 79 | 60 | 57 | Archbold | 77 | 62 | 58 | | Dumoulin | 78 | 68 | 59 | Marchewka | 77 | 60 | 64 | | Van Niekerk | 78 | 67 | 61 |  Laizer | 77 | 58 | 52 | | Sterbini | 78 | 66 | 56 | Kiflay | 76 | 68 | 63 | | Sterobo | 78 | 63 | 71 | Hamza | 76 | 63 | 52 | | Dempster | 78 | 63 | 53 | Kochetkov | 76 | 60 | 64 |
These favorites do not include riders mentioned in the previous section, these are dedicated time trial specialists. Perhaps Paillot feels different though, as on a great day he might be able to follow the puncheurs, and he beats them all on the time trial.
Other riders who might make out-out-outsider status for a good GC position are Mullen and Pokälä, though they will have a hard time getting past Paillot.
Back to the pure specialists then, Howson and Gonzalez Salas are Paillot's main rivals for the stage two win. The time trial is mostly flat so the Frenchman cannot utilize his slight advantage of the hills.
A rider with previous experience on the course is Robert. He finished eighth last year, twelve seconds down on winner Ratiy, by which he is the best classified returner. Sterobo also finished eighth the year before the year before. Do note that this was in a different race category.
Further contenders include Dumoulin, Van Niekerk, Sterbini, Dempster and Golovash, assuming they make the limit on the first stage.
|
| |
|
|
| Fabianski |
Posted on 21-11-2020 21:17
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
|
Coming back to the place where we claimed our first (and to date only) yellow jersey, after a win on stage one. Of course, it was C2, and of course we lost it in the ITT, but we're trying to live up to these memories again. Moscon will hopefully be among the best on stage one and put in some time to the better climbers, while Manfredi or Saggiorato (who's a decent puncheur as well) should be stronger on day three. Although I hope that Moscon can hold on with the best quite far up that hill, given his great resistance. Realistically, I guess we could be pretty happy with a Top15, a Top 10 being the optimum we could reach. Except if Pernsteiner gets a monster day on the first and the last stage, of course.
Overall, Izagirre or Cattaneo should take that one, as either should be able to limit the damage on the other's favorite terrain, and then it might come down to the ITT.
Thanks for the preview, Marco, looks like an interesting and wide open race 
|
| |
|
|
| quadsas |
Posted on 21-11-2020 21:31
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
|
This is between Denifl and Cattaneo, Id be surprised if top 2 didnt include either. Good thing I sent TTers to Portugal, everyone else sent theirs here
|
| |
|
|
| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-11-2020 21:33
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
|
Wow, huge startlist with a lot of CT big guns present. Gonna be interesting to see how this one goes.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
| |
|
|
| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-11-2020 22:02
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
|
No Mygind no party.
|
| |
|
|
| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 21-11-2020 22:07
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 11-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Hoping for a decent GC result from Gallopin and/or Uwizeyimana. Last stage could turn out to be a bit too tough for Gallopin, but we’ll see.
Izagirre is the favorite for me, I think. Looking forward to the reports!
|
| |
|
|
| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 00:25
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 300.00
|
Very interesting race to show how good will Dunbar be when maxed. Any result for him is possible, but i think he should finish in the GC Top10. About the TT, hopefully Salas can win it, but a podium will do it too
Race can go in so many different ways, but i assume Izagirre won't lose this
|
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 02:04
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 22-11-2020 02:04
|
Team Leader
Posts: 5533
Joined: 12-06-2013
PCM$: 500.00
|
Strong startlist and obviously no Dan Martin for us but Borisavljevic suits this profile. Last year he was 4th going into the final stage and then sacrificed himself so that Nibali could take the win and the GC so we are technically defending champions!
|
| |
|
|
| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 02:39
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7294
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
|
Might be able to get a top 10 but I’m not sure. Schultz could do well in the hills on day one and 3. Might struggle in the TT though. Garby could do well but this isn’t a race he is expected to shine in. Will be an interesting 3 stages!
|
| |
|
|
| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 22-11-2020 05:21
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
|
Always knew this would be a tricky race for Kelderman but the first stage is what we're aiming for. Beyond that, it's a case of limiting his losses to try and hold on for a good GC position. Also, hoping that Dumoulin can challenge for a high placing in the TT and to see us join a break or two for a change!
Thanks for the preview
|
| |
|
|
| Nemolito |
Posted on 22-11-2020 08:24
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
|
February has been terrible so far, and this race shouldn´t be better with our hill-capacities. The only chance of scoring some decent points would be winning the KoM, but that is raster said than done in such a field  thanks for the preview!
|
| |
|
|
| hillis91 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 13:05
|
Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
|
This field is extremly strong for sure!
Keldmerman will easily win first stage, and then it's up in the air for the last two.
Looking forward to this one
|
| |
|
|
| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 22-11-2020 13:32
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6036
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Here looking for stage wins, given we have Gesink occupied elsewhere.
Borges could do well perhaps but I have faith in our TTists, given that we have quite a fair number of them to take a good stage result.
Izagirre should be the man to beat I guess, with the climbers on hold to see how much of an impact MO has on the racing.
Thanks for the politically and epidemically updated preview Marco!
|
| |
|
|
| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 22-11-2020 20:57
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6036
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
What a ride from Preidler, congrats ivan! 3 min is massive, plus Konig in 6th.
Paillot in the main group is also an astonishing result. Izagirre is in quite the pickle now.
Not the stage we wished for, but we did only send Trillini as support for Borges. Also the mountainous character of this stage really proved to be crucial. Thankfully we didn't have GC ambitions here. Hoping for better luck tomorrow in the TT
|
| |
|
|
| Fabianski |
Posted on 22-11-2020 20:57
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
|
There it is, the first completely ridiculous result of my team. Lienhard in the main group, Moscon 8 minutes back... Sure. Don't know what happened here, but that must just be PCM logic. But well, PCM has already destroyed this race anyway, as the result wasn't just completely random for my team, but overall. Giving the Top 5 a 3 minute adavantage - check.
Congrats to Adastra, great team performance here. And Kelderman will get another huge result here for Philips, too.
Thanks for the report, Marco, guess I won't bother reading the next two, though.
|
| |
|
|
| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-11-2020 21:02
|
World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
|
Fabianski wrote:
There it is, the first completely ridiculous result of my team. Lienhard in the main group, Moscon 8 minutes back... Sure. Don't know what happened here, but that must just be PCM logic. But well, PCM has already destroyed this race anyway, as the result wasn't just completely random for my team, but overall. Giving the Top 5 a 3 minute adavantage - check.
Congrats to Adastra, great team performance here. And Kelderman will get another huge result here for Philips, too.
Thanks for the report, Marco, guess I won't bother reading the next two, though.
To quote the Magikarp salesman: "Well, I don't give refunds!"
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
|
| |
|
|
| Fabianski |
Posted on 22-11-2020 21:05
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
|
Ollfardh wrote:
To quote the Magikarp salesman: "Well, I don't give refunds!"
You don't need to, I'll happily keep him, as he'll surely get some good results this year. But today was just crappy - and the only explanation I have is that PCM considered Pernsteiner to be our leader and completely ignore Moscon. For whatever reason... Instead, he's beaten by Paillot - that sais it all
|
| |
|
|
| jandal7 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 21:10
|
World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
|
Can't complain about that, hopefully Areruya puts in a good shift in the TT tomorrow to end on about level footing with the peloton behind, and then it can be down to the final stage. Good ride from him and also from a lot of Xero riders on the front, including Higuita doing some good work for Adastra in service of the winner today which I like to see
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
| |
|
|
| ivaneurope |
Posted on 22-11-2020 21:21
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
|
A stage win is not bad, but can Preidler hold onto the lead given his low TT stat? At least Konig got some 7 seconds on the peloton - will this haunt us in the end as well?
|
| |
|
|
| Croatia14 |
Posted on 22-11-2020 22:30
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
|
Awesome stage, I love it! Congrats Ivan!
|
| |
|
