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Japan Cup Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 08-08-2020 05:48
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Team Manager
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 Japan Cup
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Preview
For the final dedicated PCT race of the year, we head to Japan. It’s another chance for the puncheurs to prove themselves, a chance for big performances and big disappointments as the fight for promotion and relegation is coming to a close.
The race takes place on a circuit of nine laps over a climb that is both pretty uneven in its profile but also pretty long, as is the entire race itself, coming it at just over 230 kilometers. Historically, it has often been decided in a sprint finish from a very reduced group of the top contenders, so we’ll take the sprinting abilities in account when looking at the favorites as well.
| HI | RS | ST | MO | SP | AC |  Kinoshita | 82 | 77 | 80 | 72 | 68 | 77 |  Kelderman | 82 | 75 | 80 | 71 | 67 | 72 |  Schreurs | 81 | 72 | 76 | 69 | 71 | 74 |  Beltran | 81 | 72 | 73 | 79 | 65 | 76 |  Borges | 80 | 73 | 75 | 70 | 71 | 81 |  Vakoc | 80 | 71 | 75 | 71 | 71 | 74 |
All eyes are, of course, on Tomohiro Kinoshita. Not only is he the Japanese national champion presenting his jersey on home soil and going into the race as the top favorite, that status is also underscored by the fact that he’s the defending champion. But the competition is fierce, so let’s have a look at the riders trying to prevent a back-to-back winner:
Kelderman is on paper easily the second best puncheur on the startlist, but his season has been characterized by some rather disappointing performances. He’ll hope to redeem himself here and end the season on a high note.
Beltran’s season has been anything but a disappointment as he’s established himself, at least looking at the rankings, as the single best PCT puncheur. He will try to consolidate that position here, but with one of the weaker sprint stats, he might have to do so by going solo - though it’s not like that’s something he couldn’t do. The sheer length of the race is also not in his favor, but we’ll have to see how much of an impact that ultimately has.
Schreurs comes to Japan as last year’s runner-up, so he can be confident in his abilities on this terrain and he certainly won’t lack motivation to try and do even better - which would mean to win the whole thing. In comparison to the guys mentioned above, he is one of the quicker finishers.
The same applies to Borges and Vakoc, who are a slight step below the others as pure puncheurs, but whose decent sprinting seperates them from similarly good puncheurs a tier below. Speaking of:
| HI | RS | ST | MO | SP | AC |  Claeys | 83 | 68 | 74 | 67 | 67 | 73 |  Di Maggio | 82 | 68 | 73 | 65 | 65 | 75 |  Jensen | 80 | 73 | 77 | 70 | 66 | 76 |  Betancourt | 80 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 67 | 74 |  Prevar | 80 | 70 | 77 | 71 | 67 | 73 |  Waeytens | 80 | 70 | 72 | 71 | 66 | 73 |  Flügel | 80 | 65 | 77 | 71 | 67 | 72 | | Trofimov | 79 | 72 | 74 | 74 | 70 | 70 | | Bilbao | 79 | 71 | 77 | 67 | 71 | 75 |  Yates | 79 | 70 | 77 | 70 | 75 | 80 |  Bellis | 78 | 71 | 80 | 68 | 74 | 75 |
This second tier contains two other previous winners of this race, namely Flügel (2012) and Di Maggio (2014). Both haven’t been able to reach these hights this year, but they’ve shown flashes and could still be in contention if their weak resistance doesn’t limit them too much.
The same problem befalls Claeys, the best pure puncheur on paper, but also slightly lacking in secondary stats including climbing skills that might be necessary on a somewhat monotonous course like this.
More well-rounded are the likes of Jensen, Prevar, Betancourt and Waeytens. All four are great puncheurs, although the former two have a distinct advantage in their elite stamina, but none of them have a particularly quick finish, so they have to hope for a more selective race.
The contrary is true for Trofimov, Bilbao (who notably finished fourth last year), Yates and Bellis - whose exceptional stamina gives him the nod over a few possibly stronger pure puncheurs. They are in this tier precisely because of their strong sprinting. Especially Yates has a combination of speed and acceleration that is second to none among the contenders and almost had him in the top tier, but if the racing is really tough, he might have trouble to stick with the very best puncheurs. He’s done that before, though, having beaten Kinoshita at Milano - Torino, for instance.
| HI | RS | ST | MO | SP | AC |  Vogt | 80 | 71 | 78 | 62 | 62 | 63 |  Dowsett | 80 | 69 | 74 | 65 | 66 | 71 |  Zaini | 80 | 65 | 74 | 66 | 65 | 70 | | Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 74 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 69 |  Slagter | 79 | 73 | 71 | 78 | 61 | 71 | | Paulinho | 79 | 72 | 70 | 75 | 68 | 75 |  Reichenbach | 79 | 69 | 76 | 73 | 63 | 69 |  Klemme | 79 | 69 | 73 | 73 | 65 | 65 | | Froome | 79 | 68 | 72 | 67 | 51 | 70 |  Juul-Jensen | 78 | 74 | 76 | 70 | 66 | 79 |  Pichon | 78 | 74 | 72 | 69 | 62 | 74 | | Barbin | 78 | 73 | 75 | 68 | 71 | 76 | | Caruso | 78 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 70 | 77 | | Calmejane | 77 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 72 | 76 | | Sepulveda | 77 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 73 | | Tsatevich | 77 | 73 | 74 | 62 | 75 | 75 |
Froome is the fourth and final previous champion, he won the race in 2016, relegating Kinoshita to second place in the process. It’s rather unlikely that this happens again here, not only because they are teammates now, one clearly working for the other, but also because the Brit has had trouble consistently living up to his potential on the hills due to a combination of subpar resistance and mountain abilities.
The same is true for the likes of Vogt, Dowsett and Zaini, who are almost listed more pro forma, but maybe they have a surprise in them on this last day of racing.
Gebrezgabihier and Paulinho are not plagued by those problems, but they might be relegated to domestique roles for Di Maggio and Vogt, respectively, which could hurt their chances.
In a long list of good puncheurs that includes Slagter, Reichenbach, Klemme and Barbin, all of whom could be in Top 10 contention on a good day, a few riders stand out for their previous successes in this race:
Juul-Jensen, for instance, has been third here two years ago and sixth last year. Improving on that might be too big of a challenge, but maybe it gives him the confidence for another good result. Beating him by one place, Pichon finished fifth last year, outsprinting a few nominally quicker riders.
One of them was Caruso, who finished in the Top 10 in both of the last two years and, alongside Calmejane, provides Europcar with another option for a good result. They’re rounding out the tier alongside Sepulveda and Tsatevich as riders who aren’t among the top puncheurs but whose good sprinting skills good give them an edge if they finish in a larger group.
In addition, there’s of course always a good chance that the backend of the Top 20 will have a few domestiques in it who have a good day. Among those candidates, in addition to the ones mentioned above, are the likes of Boily, Quevedo, Palini, Serry, Moscon and quite a few more.
Take a look at the full startlist here:
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 08-08-2020 06:40
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Directeur Sportif
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A chance for Kelderman and the team to sign off from the PCT on a high. Hasn't happened all season, but there's always a first time.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 08-08-2020 07:22
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Classics Specialist
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We have 3 man here that could possibly perform well, in Zaini, Caruso and Calmejane. The latter would be especially suited for a mass sprint situation, where a big peloton comes over the last hill.
So where hoping for no action whatsoever and a slow pace  |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 08-08-2020 07:25
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Team Manager
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Looking at the startlist I just realized that I left Izagirre off the preview. He's certainly in Tier 1. Apologies to Iberia
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 08-08-2020 07:33
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Can't see this going any other way than Beltran... lots of climbing overall will likely turn this to more of a climbers race than puncheurs.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 08-08-2020 08:31
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 11-07-2010
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If we can keep Campari behind us in the rankings, I'll be happy. I'd like to see us make an attempt to pass cycleYorkshire and UBS, but looking at this mountainous profile and and with Schreurs performances this season in the back of my mind, I think it's probably too big of a task.
Thanks for the preview, cunego!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 08-08-2020 09:14
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
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We've had a good final run of results, hopefully that means we'll finish this unfortunate season on a high note.
Good luck everyone and thanks for the preview cunego!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 08-08-2020 10:28
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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One more time
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 08-08-2020 10:33
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World Champion
Posts: 14562
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Vintage Waeytens needed here for a bad result and low wages.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-11-2024 21:16
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
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How many teams relegate if there's no-one leaving the game? Random but I'm a bit lost rn and trying to get a grip of how nervous I should be
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| roturn |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:09
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Team Manager
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5 teams relegate. |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:23
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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Thanks, also means I'm part of those  But ok let's see how this goes, points are needed badly!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:31
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Go Beltran!
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
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Can't see Pichon getting much from this race, actually more likely that one of the Rocchetti madmen get some points from a successful breakaway.
Thanks for the preview
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 08-08-2020 14:55
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
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Thanks for the preview cunego! Minimal expectations from Reichenbach as I've learned better by now 
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 08-08-2020 16:25
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8056
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 650.00
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Well, Simon Yates, now would be a good time to show up for a change.
After having high expectations for this season, I'm happy to see the offseason on the horizon so we can regroup and break out the drawing board once again.
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| ryant |
Posted on 08-08-2020 18:00
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
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Its all Bellis or bust here, no one else has the ability to factor in the result no matter the circumstance so I hope he has a good day :s
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-08-2020 13:00
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Could be disappointed with 18th, but already conceded that the result was irrelevant for us. Thanks for the amazing report cunego (and roturn for posting), congrats Popo4Ever for the win.
Absolute thrill at the bottom of the table 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 09-08-2020 13:05
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World Champion
Posts: 14562
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Mareczko being lapped was probably our highlight of the race. Another season done, thank you for all the reports!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 09-08-2020 13:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2950
Joined: 01-03-2012
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Wow, back to the CT for us. I am legitimately shocked to be honest, I really didn't expect this at the beginning of the year. What a tough pill to swallow... At least it puts us out of our misery I guess
Thanks Return for the amazing report though, although it didn't go our way. |
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