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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Man-Game] General
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Tour of Tasmania Discussion
Marcovdw
Note: there will be a rankings update before this race

Tour of Tasmania


History


YearWinnerTeam
2018Edvald Boasson HagenAir France - KLM
2017Jerome CoppelFestina - Dexia
2016Jerome CoppelTeam I-Gen - Festina
2015Edvald Boasson HagenAker - MOT
2014Yuri TrofimovTinkoff Credit Systems Bank
2013Tejay Van GarderenWikipedia


For the second year in a row I am flying down to Tasmania to visit my family, and also to report on the second-a-last ProTour race of the season. Last year was a thriller with Edvald Boasson Hagen fending off local favorite Jack Bobridge in the time trial to become a two-time winner and tie with Jerome Coppel as record winner. The Norwegian could take his third title and become sole record-holder, but the competition is strong. Ever since its inclusion the race is a coveted race for puncheurs and time trialists, though this year some climbers have also put the race on their schedule.

Profiles

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/profiles/pt_tas.jpg


The first stage takes the riders from George Town to Launceston, the second-largest city on the island. The stage is by no means flat but the sprinters will likely battle for the stage win and the first yellow jersey. The second stage, from Devonport to Penguin, is the stage for the puncheurs and climbers, with a lot of climbing including the final climb, crossed twice before a short downhill to the finish. The time trial around Sheffield (Tasmania, not Yorkshire) is short and contains a minor hill, which gives the weaker climbers a chance to gain back time.

Startlist

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Races/PT/Tasmania/startlist.jpg


Stage 1SPACCHLStage 1SPACCHL
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Coquard848366pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Petit807865
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Van Stayen847879pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Scully798067
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Ewan838171pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Van der Sande797970
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Guerao837665pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Bertilsson797769
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Kennaugh828165pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Krasnov787763
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Nelson818160pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Clarke787661
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Van Heerden817267pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Reimer778075
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Keukeleire807970pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Kalaba777769
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Samolenkov807964pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Hsu777767


While the first stage has some climbing, the sprinters should be favorite. Despite only one day to suit them, we have some world class sprinters attending.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Coquard is fresh off his GP Moscow win, and is ready to rock to boat on the other side of the world. With his standard leadout of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Petit, no doubt they will challenge for the win.

Their main rival will be pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Van Stayen, the now ex-winner of GP Moscow. One advantage he has over the Frenchman is his ability to get over hills better, though his disadvantage is his acceleration.

The Australian sprinter-leadout duo of Podium Ambition, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Ewan and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Nelson, can count on sympathy from the home crowd. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Kennaugh is the only sprinter to have ever won a stage in Tasmania, when he won the opening stage in 2015.

Other top contenders are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Guerao and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Van Heerden, though their acceleration might also come back to haunt them.

A total outsider could walk away with the win. A pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Samolenkov, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Scully, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Van der Sande or pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Bertilsson for instance. One shot, one opportunity, to seize everything you ever wanted. Mom's spaghetti.

Stage 2HLMOACCStage 2MOHLACC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Hagen857079pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe857876
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Ponzi847380pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin857574
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Sagan837476pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Spilak848173
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Lutsenko837381pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy847567
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Mohoric837177pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Lecuisinier837574
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge836980pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Cattaneo827070
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Van Garderen827279pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer817173
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Gastauer827176pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Preidler807869
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Spilak818473pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Olivier807671
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Koretzky817179pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Keinath797670
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png McCarthy816774pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Padun787573
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Buchmann807673pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Poljanski777771
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Boswell807176pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Tvetcov777573
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Prevar807173pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Goos777473
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Anuar Aziz806769pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Vasyliv777467
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/des.png Yates797080pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Novak777365
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Van Stayen796478pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Mai777060


Some teams have a different interpretation of the second stage than others, as some chose to send a puncheur and others chose to send a climber. Either way, a favorite has to know how to ride uphill.

The safest bet is a rider who can do both. Look no further than pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Spilak in that case. Isostar bringing a very strong team, as they also have pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Mohoric and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer as backup puncheur and climber respectively.

Historically speaking, it has been a race of the puncheurs, as shown by two-time winner pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Hagen. He also enters the race as defending champion. The other rider to have won the overall in the past is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Van Garderen, in 2013. Both men lay their groundwork on the hilly stage. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Ponzi and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge are past stage winners as well.

Previous performances are no indication for the future. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Sagan and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Lutsenko and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Gastauer have not had success here in the past, but there is a first for everything.

Moving over to the climbers, where the field is led by pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe, wildcard pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin and Spilak, with eight Grand Tour wins between them. Taaramäe won this year's Vuelta, but he is equaled by Spilak who won the Giro. In terms of Tour de Frances, the Slovenian also leads with two titles, while the other gentlemen have only one against their name. Why I'm comparing palmarès from a different race, I don't know.

No Grand Tour success does not make you a bad climber. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Lecuisinier and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Cattaneo are all plausible contenders, though they have to break the puncheurs.

Stage 3TTHLMOStage 3TTHLMO
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Fiedler836860pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png SĂĽtterlin806559
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Zmorka826659pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Van Winden806353
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe817885pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin797585
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer817181pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Cattaneo797082
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Vlatos816652pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Brändle797176
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy807584pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Cataford797072
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Paillot807170pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Dennis787574
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png WĂĽrtz807065pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira787374
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Sergent806965pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Lecuisinier777583
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Lammertink806964pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge778369
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Yatsevich806855pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kangert777775


The time trial is not completely flat, resulting in many contenders. The hill is not that difficult, but some pure time trialists have problems with even a speed bump.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Fiedler has shown he is capable of handling this stage, winning it last year. The competition last season did not contain many time trialists which were also climbers, hence the outcome is not guaranteed to replicate this year.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Zmorka and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Vlatos are good time trialists on pure flat courses, but this is not. Nevertheless, a good result is expected of them. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Paillot and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png WĂĽrtz are better adapted to a bit of climbing.

A thing to notice is the large amount of climbers who are also capable of time trialling. Every rider mentioned as climber in the previous section with the exception of Spilak is also in the contenders section here. The best of the lot are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy.

The puncheurs are not represented with the exception of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge, who thought he had the exclusive rights to the combo which brought him close to glory on many occasions. With the new-found competition, it will be more difficult than ever.

There is also a whole category of riders whose speciality it is to perform on hilly time trials. Look at a pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Brändle, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Dennis, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kangert. They might even sneak a good GC result.

GCMOHLTTGCMOHLTT
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe857881pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Novak777376
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin857579pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Ponzi738468
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy847580pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira747378
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer817181pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Bibby767576
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Cattaneo827079pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Laengen767376
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Spilak848176pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Sagan748368
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Lecuisinier837577pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Lutsenko738368
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge698377pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Van Garderen728269
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Hagen708572pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Paillot707180
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Brändle767179pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Cataford727079
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Keinath797675pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Tvetcov777574
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kangert757777pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Brown757376
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Dennis747578pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Dyball767375
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Goos777476pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Rosskopf737576


So, the combined rankings. To win, you need to be good at either climbing or puncheuring [sic], and be decent at time trialling.

The riders who best combine these abilities are the climbers. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Taaramäe ranks on top, as he is simply capable of being amongst the best in all three disciplines.

The next four riders on the list are also expected to battle for the podium. There is not much separating pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Kritskiy, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Keizer and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Cattaneo. They can only inflict small damage on each other on both important stages.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Spilak and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Lecuisinier lack the time trial ability compared to the previous riders, though they are by no means slow. It just means they have to gain more time on stage two.

The first non-climber is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bobridge, who hopes this will finally be his year. Since 2015 he has finished on the podium in every edition, though never on the top step. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Hagen did win twice, but both men now have to beat the climbing force on the second stage.

The hybrids occupy the next spots on the list. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Brändle, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Keinath, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kangert, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Dennis and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Goos can all surprise in the GC. Kangert even finished on the podium last year!
Edited by Marcovdw on 04-08-2020 11:16
Manager of Minions
 
ember
Very nice preview, Marcovdw!

We come here with big expectations. Putting Taaramäe here was obvious seeing how his race planning went, as possible stage points + GC felt obvious compared to LBL or Lombardia. Seeing the startlist (no Phinney) is a pleasant surprise, and hopefully Taaramäe can make use of the TT and win this overall. He needs to be able to follow the front riders on the hilly stage then, but seeing how hilly stages in stage races are played out, I'm optimistic he should be up there.

Fingers crossed we can help chase down breakaways, making the GC a fight between the GC riders and not breakaway riders Pfft
 
Croatia14
All in.
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DubbelDekker
Stacked startlist. We'll be fighting over the scraps these big guns leave on the table.
i.imgur.com/5iNQj.png
 
roturn
My team could do really well here with Paillot/Keinath mainly and Olivier/Boom/Zardini as depth points.

But it all depends how selective the hill stage is and how much time gaps on the TT. Lots of questionmarks.


More interesting to follow the other teams here.
T-Mobile needs a huge race and have a big time startlist. Basically need Fiedler winning the GC though.
Same with Repsol and Zmorka.

Different tactic for Fablok and Farfetch going for the hilly stage. We`ll see how it ends.
 
jph27
Took a massive gamble in planning by sending Cattaneo here, and having seen how PCM 18 treats stages like Stage 2 here throughout the season I'm glad I did. Hopefully he can stay with the front group, although I expect he'll be gapped in the sprint if he does.

Best case scenario is a break taking the stage to be honest, as it limits point scoring opportunities for Ponzi and Lutsenko as well as keeping the pace low in the pack, but that could also backfire. Hopefully we can get a top 10 and a couple of good stage results to go to Lombardia still outside the relegation zone.
 
tastasol
Hopefully Stake Laengen can continue to overperform this season! Could be a good race for WĂĽrtz also, if the hilly stage isn't that selective. Some really big hitters here, so should be a great race.
 
Aquarius97
It's impossible Zmorka survives the hilly stage. And the final TT will be won by Taaramae, as it has some ascent at the middle of the course, enough for his 85 mon to kick in.

The actual hope is Novak, which isn't a very good one. I mean, it's a race that suits him, but there are maybe 30 riders which are suited to it too and are much better :lol: So we have to hope for a slowish hilly stage (fast enough to drop Cattaneo please Pfft ) and a +5 in the TT for Novak
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fjhoekie
Oof, that is one stacked field here Shock

Hoping Pluchkin can upset a number of teams here Smile
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
 
DubbelDekker
That Coquard fellow really has found his legs lately. Congrats SotD
i.imgur.com/5iNQj.png
 
Croatia14
Good start with Spilak and Mohoric very attentive.
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Bikex
What is this? Guerao in a great position but then dropping to 14th? I can't expect him to win here but, also looking at the names that passed him, this is a joke. Why can't my team not disappoint for a change?
 
DubbelDekker
Excellent job by Kangert and Bibby! They are now in a position to challenge for a solid GC result in the TT.
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alexkr00
5 minutes Frown
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roturn
Keinath did pretty good as expected now being my top10 GC guy for the TT.

Paillot lost more than hoped, while Olivier/Zardini haven`t been bets GC wise anyway but should remain top50 I guess.

Unfortunate to still have that many time trialists in that first group and Cattaneo/Keizer too close to remain in front of them.
 
Croatia14
Keizer you moron, loosing unnecessary time and a potential Top3 at the end. Spilak doing very well though, while Mohoric is just doing Mohoric things.
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ember
Wow, the team did surprisingly well there! Having Aasvold and Tvetcov pulling on the final ascent wasn't something that crossed my mind when I opened the report. Taaramäe also on same time as everyone else is good, and he looked really strong in that sprint, holding the lead for more than a kilometer. Second place is still a very nice result. Hopefully he can finish it off in the TT and take the overall here. Would be great to end the season on a high!

Thank you for the report, roturn!
 
Marcovdw
ember wrote:
Thank you for the report, roturn!


Sad
Manager of Minions
 
ember
Marcovdw wrote:
ember wrote:
Thank you for the report, roturn!


Sad

Oh, mixed up Deutschland and Tasmania. Sorry! Thank you for the report, Marcovdw Grin
 
Bikex
WTF are you doing Lutsenko? Again a quite promising situation completely wasted, when my riders dropped out of the front group.
I'm sure jph mixed something in my team's food.
 
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