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KBC De Panne Tour Discussion
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 30-12-2019 06:30
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Directeur Sportif
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KBC De Panne Tour Preview
Always a race that throws up a surprise or two, the KBC De Panne continues on the MG calendar for the ninth consecutive season. Pieter Vanspeybrouck brushed off an otherwise under-par season to win this race last year, despite not winning any stage. The three editions before that has been won by the rider (Lebris, Baugnies, Summerhill, in reverse order) who won the difficult first stage, which is also true for the 2012 edition won by Niels Albert. The 2013 edition was won in the TT by Ian Bibby. This just goes to show the variety that this race throws up.
| FLA | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | COB | SPR | ACC |  Summerhill | 78 | 73 | 59 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 83 | 70 | 73 |  Vanspeybrouck | 76 | 71 | 62 | 78 | 71 | 72 | 82 | 67 | 69 |  Stallaert | 77 | 67 | 58 | 76 | 68 | 80 | 81 | 79 | 76 |  Zepuntke | 72 | 69 | 65 | 79 | 72 | 64 | 81 | 72 | 65 |  Baugnies | 78 | 72 | 62 | 80 | 73 | 73 | 80 | 65 | 73 |  Spengler | 74 | 64 | 62 | 72 | 73 | 76 | 82 | 61 | 70 |  Nolf | 74 | 66 | 64 | 77 | 72 | 69 | 80 | 63 | 71 |  Ferreira | 73 | 68 | 63 | 74 | 70 | 69 | 79 | 71 | 69 |  Breen | 77 | 70 | 68 | 72 | 72 | 71 | 78 | 73 | 72 |  Debesay | 75 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 79 | 70 | 77 | 69 | 78 |  Van Keirsbulck | 72 | 71 | 51 | 75 | 73 | 63 | 78 | 70 | 68 | | Sinkeldam | 74 | 75 | 64 | 74 | 70 | 68 | 77 | 68 | 68 | | Bohli | 74 | 68 | 70 | 79 | 75 | 65 | 77 | 74 | 68 |
2015 champion, Danny Summerhill, starts as the top favourite for this race. He is the premier Northern Classics rider in the PCT division, after making the drop this transfer season. He is also the best over the hills among 80+ cobbles riders!
Last year's winner Vanspeybrouck looks to be the nearest challenger to Summerhill. He will be hoping to not lose any ground to his rival on the cobbles or in fact, the hills on Stage 1, and look to use his slightly better TT skills on the final stage to gain an advantage.
The rider hoping that the stages turn out to be a reduced bunch sprint among the favourites, has to be Stallaert with his sprint skills. He is weak, however, against the clock and will need to have a decent lead before the final stage to not lose too many positions there.
Zepuntke and Baugnies are similar in overall ability but seem to inverse of each in terms of non-cobbles skills. While Baugnies is better in the hills and in acceleration, Zepuntke holds the edge in the sprints and in the time trial.
Spengler would be a strong podium contender if not for his weaker set of skills elsewhere. Nolf, too, is similar.
Among the others, Debesay and Sinkeldam are the strongest on the hills among the favourites while Bohli is the fastest barring Stallaert. Van Keirsbulck is a strong overall rider but his TT skills leave a lot to be desired. Breen and Ferreira, on the hand, could be a surprise factor, if they are taken lightly by their rivals.
| FLA | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | COB | SPR | ACC |  Chatarunga | 72 | 67 | 67 | 79 | 72 | 68 | 77 | 70 | 68 | | Bakari | 59 | 55 | 54 | 59 | 56 | 59 | 82 | 61 | 60 | | Albert | 74 | 68 | 56 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 77 | 62 | 66 | | Kulppi | 73 | 67 | 61 | 73 | 69 | 69 | 77 | 65 | 70 | | Laporte | 73 | 73 | 62 | 72 | 74 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 73 | | Grand | 72 | 65 | 63 | 74 | 70 | 68 | 77 | 65 | 65 | | Van der Haar | 77 | 72 | 66 | 70 | 72 | 69 | 75 | 72 | 70 | | Rowe | 78 | 66 | 65 | 76 | 70 | 79 | 75 | 79 | 80 | | Sweeck | 73 | 68 | 68 | 71 | 72 | 62 | 76 | 70 | 71 |  Kosic | 72 | 66 | 61 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 77 | 59 | 64 |  Orue | 69 | 64 | 64 | 77 | 70 | 56 | 78 | 53 | 58 | | Drucker | 73 | 64 | 67 | 73 | 69 | 70 | 76 | 73 | 73 | | Lindeman | 73 | 64 | 60 | 72 | 69 | 66 | 76 | 74 | 76 | | Gaudin | 73 | 67 | 66 | 75 | 67 | 69 | 76 | 56 | 69 | | Kumara | 74 | 67 | 54 | 74 | 70 | 65 | 75 | 71 | 67 | | Fouquet | 74 | 67 | 65 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 75 | 68 | 64 | | Flaksis | 70 | 65 | 56 | 75 | 70 | 66 | 76 | 61 | 62 | | Eeckhout | 72 | 61 | 54 | 71 | 71 | 61 | 77 | 64 | 57 |
A big list of outsiders because of the varied nature of this race. Former winner Albert is among these along with the mercurial Bakari. A lot of all-rounders among the names on this list with Laporte and Van der Haar standing out for their puncher capabilities.
| FLA | SPR | ACC | | Drapac | 71 | 80 | 79 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | | Rowe | 78 | 79 | 80 | | Perera | 71 | 79 | 80 | | Keough | 73 | 79 | 79 | | Peeters | 72 | 79 | 77 | | Pelucchi | 74 | 79 | 77 | | Stallaert | 77 | 79 | 76 | | Vanderaerden | 72 | 79 | 75 | | Kreder | 73 | 78 | 80 | | Tewelde | 74 | 78 | 77 |
A weak sprinter field have traveled for this race for the one flat stage on offer. Drapac and Van Asbroeck start as favourites for the win on stage 3. It is doubtful that either will be in contention for the GC at that time, unless we have an uncharacteristically mild first couple of stages.
Stallaert is the only sprinter who is also among the favourites.
| TT | PRL | | Kittel | 81 | 81 | | Dillier | 80 | 79 | | Haugard | 79 | 79 | | Mottin | 79 | 79 | | Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 78 | | Mullen | 78 | 78 | | Ignatiev | 78 | 78 | | Li | 78 | 78 | | Gretsch | 77 | 79 | | Steensen | 77 | 77 | | Pokälä | 77 | 76 | | Martin | 77 | 76 | | Christian | 77 | 75 | | Kiflay | 76 | 77 | | Ludvigsson | 76 | 75 | | Schär | 75 | 75 | | Gallopin | 75 | 74 | | Ortega | 75 | 73 |
Kittel is the top favourite for the TT on the final stage. Dilier is expected to be his nearest rival. Haugard and Mottin are the others who look the most likely to challenge for the win on the final stage.
Spoiler | Last Name | First Name | Team | | Summerhill | Danny | Andorra Cycling Project | | Mottin | Hugues | Andorra Cycling Project | | Bakari | Amadou | Andorra Cycling Project | | Dahl-Olsen | Gunnar | Andorra Cycling Project | | Sakala | Yanjanani | Andorra Cycling Project | | Eeckhout | Kevin | Andorra Cycling Project | | Galiev | Ulugbek | Andorra Cycling Project | | Keough | Luke | Azteca - NBCSN | | Mannion | Gavin | Azteca - NBCSN | | Orue | German Anibal | Azteca - NBCSN | | Stetina | Peter | Azteca - NBCSN | | Ortega | Sergio | Azteca - NBCSN | | Egidio | Christian | Azteca - NBCSN | | Corwin | Dadley | Azteca - NBCSN | | Ferreira | Ricardo | Campari/Asahi development | | Kunshin | Aleksej | Campari/Asahi development | | Christian | Mark | Campari/Asahi development | | Yamamoto | Masaki | Campari/Asahi development | | Moschetti | Matteo | Campari/Asahi development | | Rocchetti | Filippo | Campari/Asahi development | | Vanspeybrouck | Pieter | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Sinkeldam | Ramon | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Kvist | Thomas Vedel | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Steensen | Andre | Carlsberg - Danske bank | | Haas | Nathan | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Hansen | Jesper | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Ostergaard | Niki | Carlsberg - Danske bank | | Bjelkmark | Jonas | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | Nolf | Frederik | Carrefour - ESPN | | Laporte | Christophe | Carrefour - ESPN | | Li | Wen Hao | Carrefour - ESPN | | Bercz | Patrick | Carrefour - ESPN | | Gaudin | Damien | Carrefour - ESPN | | Banaszek | Alan | Carrefour - ESPN | | Galdoune | Amine | Carrefour - ESPN | | Breen | Vegard | Delvaux | | Ignatiev | Mikhail | Delvaux | | Kreder | Michel | Delvaux | | Gallopin | Tony | Delvaux | | Van der Haar | Lars | Delvaux | | Hermans | Ben | Delvaux | | Daniel | Gregory | Delvaux | | Zariff | Nur Aiman | Delvaux | | Domene | Ramon | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Kosic | Nejc | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Gougeard | Alexis | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Soler | Marc | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Cosnefroy | Benoit | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Garcia Cortina | Ivan | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Bernal | Egan | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Philipsen | Jasper | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | Baugnies | Jerome | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Mullen | Ryan | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Drucker | Jempy | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Tewelde | Jani | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Martin | Tony | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Gretsch | Patrick | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Gradek | Kamil | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Cominelli | Cristian | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | Van Asbroeck | Tom | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Senni | Manuel | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Pelucchi | Matteo | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Moscon | Gianni | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Peeters | Kevin | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Sajnok | Szymon | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Dewulf | Stan | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Zepuntke | Ruben | Minions | | Janse van Rensburg | Reinhardt | Minions | | Albert | Niels | Minions | | Drapac | Damion | Minions | | Lindeman | Bert-Jan | Minions | | Marcos | Leandro | Minions | | Kiflay | Metkel | Minions | | Flaksis | Andzs | Minions | | Van Keirsbulck | Guillaume | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Perera | Madushanka | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Van Poppel | Boy | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Kumara | Amith Udaya | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Durasek | Kristijan | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Smukulis | Gatis | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Coronel | Samuel | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Fouche | James | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | Mansilla | Luis Miguel | Signal Iduna | | Dupont | Timothy | Signal Iduna | | Abelouache | Essaid | Signal Iduna | | Kal | Mirac | Signal Iduna | | Nsengimana | Jean Bosco | Signal Iduna | | Van Emden | Jos | Signal Iduna | | Naesen | Lawrence | Signal Iduna | | Siskevicius | Paulius | Signal Iduna | | Spengler | Lukas | Team UBS | | Reinhardt | Theo | Team UBS | | Dillier | Silvan | Team UBS | | Bohli | Tom | Team UBS | | Grand | Arnaud | Team UBS | | Fouquet | Kevin | Team UBS | | Schär | Michael | Team UBS | | Schäppi | Martin | Team UBS | | Kittel | Marcel | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Chatarunga | Sameera | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Kulppi | Olli | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Pokälä | Samuel | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Vanderaerden | Michael | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Brynjolfsson | Kari | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Hänninen | Jaako | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Pietikäinen | Sauli | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Stallaert | Joeri | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Ludvigsson | Tobias | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Haugard | Phan Age | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Sweeck | Laurens | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Ariesen | Johim | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Broers | Remco | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Tanfield | Harry | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Budding | Martijn | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Rowe | Luke | Xero Racing | | Debesay | Mekseb | Xero Racing | | Habtom | Mikiel | Xero Racing | | Bester | Shaun Nick | Xero Racing | | Davison | Tom | Xero Racing | | Ngamoki-Cameron | Carl | Xero Racing | | Higuita | Sergio | Xero Racing | | Schomber | Nils | Xero Racing |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 30-12-2019 07:16
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
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Riding a race from outside in hopefully, looking for some reasonable performances from Corwin and Orue on the cobbles, Keough for a shot at stage 3. Ortega just because there might be something in the TT for him and Egidio because he does it all reasonably well.
Don't tell Mannion or Stetina there aren't any mountains around here... had to convince them otherwise to get them to go.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-11-2024 20:35
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 30-12-2019 10:44
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World Champion
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Van Asbroeck always did well in this race, but almost all the big cobblers are here so he'll probably lose too much time
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 30-12-2019 10:49
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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Much stronger startlist than Roma Maxima. A contender on all three terrains, just hope we get a good GC out of this.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 30-12-2019 11:04
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World Champion
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If we can organise two bunch finishes then Rowe and Debesay start to look like top 5/winners, the latter as best TT in the favourites and the former with bonuses. Hoping for a very good GC result for one or both, and hopefully some stage points along the way (stage win would be nice but focus is on GC)
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 30-12-2019 14:27
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4032
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Stallaert was not good on those cobbles last time he raced hopefully he will delivery better this time and with such a weak sprintfield maybe he can do something on that stage without cobbles aswell!
Haugard I dont have high hope about here he has a good TT stat but lacks some support stats. |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 31-12-2019 00:51
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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Machado missing here as he's in Roma ,but I'm quite excited for this one, Summerhill's got work in his hands but seeing how he's ridden so far I'm confident. TT's is his flaw but looking at the list, so is most of his competition so goal is to have him take the race by the horns on the opening day, and try to get to the final TT in yellow to have a shot of winning it.
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| SotD |
Posted on 31-12-2019 07:40
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World Champion
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Another race destroyed by the AI...
Half the peloton gone in the first stage, and only 7-8 riders not completely fucked over.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 31-12-2019 08:18
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SotD wrote:
Another race destroyed by the AI...
Half the peloton gone in the first stage, and only 7-8 riders not completely fucked over.
I'm thinking quite the opposite, as these are actually hill and the cobbels sections all (too) hard, but at least not unrealistic long, could provide for more rider able to hang within a reasonable time loss.
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| SotD |
Posted on 31-12-2019 08:32
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World Champion
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It surely can't be the ideal scenario to have 150 riders or so starting the race, and then after stage 1 out of 4 only 61 still remains with just 15 riders within 20 minutes of the leader.
Riders like Zepunkte, Spengler, van Aasbroeck, Bohli, van Keirsbulck, Breen, Stallaert are all effectively out of the race before it has even begun.
7 riders within 8 minutes of eachother.
Random hills, some with HUGE gaps, others with the entire peloton in s.t.
Sprint stages benefitting the sprinters in the region 5-20th pre-race favorite over the actual leaders etc.
It might not be the worst ever version of the game for the Man-Game, but it is a HUGE step backwards from the previous one. More testing should have made the give-away, not an actual season.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 31-12-2019 08:37
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Wow what a stage! A shame Debesay couldn't hang on to the front guys, 8th won't be an awful kind of GC but he had the potential for more. Rowe dissapointing and needing a stage win or close to to make up for it, happy enough with Bester who should be good in the TT as well. Happy with Abelouache flying the Signal Iduna flag, forgot we were here but good to see a first PCT level breakaway for the year!
My reaction to the gaps, although doubtlessly weather-influenced, is that probably in PCM18 we don't need every cobbled section to be 5 stars?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 31-12-2019 08:43
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Wait, what? Should I laugh or cry about Stallaert loosing about 39 minutes...
I know he is worse on hills then Summerhill, Vanspeybrouck f.ex but seeing a rider like Nolf with worse hills stat and cobbles stat beeing up there fighting for podium with Stallaert a long way back make the hills stat not so relevant maybe...
Guess Joeri was at -50 at dayform or maybe riding with just one leg or something like that.
Anyways thanks for report. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 31-12-2019 09:35
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So I'm guessing cobbles were set to 5 here as well? That's probably something we need to talk about for next year, this stage was perfect in the past, now it's just an overkill.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 31-12-2019 10:10
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SotD wrote:
It surely can't be the ideal scenario to have 150 riders or so starting the race, and then after stage 1 out of 4 only 61 still remains with just 15 riders within 20 minutes of the leader.
Riders like Zepunkte, Spengler, van Aasbroeck, Bohli, van Keirsbulck, Breen, Stallaert are all effectively out of the race before it has even begun.
7 riders within 8 minutes of eachother.
Random hills, some with HUGE gaps, others with the entire peloton in s.t.
Sprint stages benefitting the sprinters in the region 5-20th pre-race favorite over the actual leaders etc.
It might not be the worst ever version of the game for the Man-Game, but it is a HUGE step backwards from the previous one. More testing should have made the give-away, not an actual season.
You are absolutely right, I did not realize the stage was already posted, I was just guessing based on how the profile looked. And my guess was completely wrong, turned out to be 10-20 times harder than what I would expect.
A agree with all you arguments, as said my post was just a pre-race prediction not an argument about the 15>18 versions.
I'm all for making changes to save the season, both at profiles and rider database.
Edited by Tamijo on 31-12-2019 10:29
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 31-12-2019 10:26
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Always glad to see my rider do good, but otherwise a stupid race.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 31-12-2019 10:30
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Grand Tour Champion
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Well, that was a stage.
Lucky to have someone in the break and be in with a shot of a decent GC (provided the next stage is not even heavier). Zepuntke with a huge loss.
Thanks Abhishek for the report, congrats YJ!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 31-12-2019 15:05
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Tour de France Champion
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Thank God VSB made that selection. No logical reason the pack would just give up there, especially seeing as this isn't a classic but is raced on time. Baffling to say the least.
Luckily the team came to play, and VSB make the jump when it mattered. A stage win would have been nice, but we're shaping up for a great GC, and our domestiques are well above their grade here, with two ahead of the peloton. No complaints here.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 31-12-2019 15:14
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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Thanks! This was definetely a weird affair, Summerhill took the win and I'm happy although somewhat reluctant as he was far from dominant and here we had ambition to take the lead permanently. Still, next stage means a new opportunity, and seeing how Eeckhout and Dahl-Olsen ridden I can be happy with the depth and support for yellow tomorrow, even if just with 4 riders at the start line.
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 31-12-2019 17:07
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Posts: 3999
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Good work from Orue to be ahead of the peloton and make himself good in the end for an easy lead in the U23 which should just be reinforced by the next day.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-12-2019 17:11
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That was a really cool stage! Shame for Luke Rowe though 
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