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Vuelta a España Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 07-12-2018 10:42
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It's time for the second Grand Tour, La Vuelta a España! 21 days of racing around the geography of Spain, starting in Leon and finishing in the top of Alto de L'Angliru
We'll start with a short review of the route
The first thing you notice looking at the first week is the lack of any kind of mountains, with all 7 finish favoring sprinters. Cities like Salamanca, Valladolid, Segovia, Valencia or Malaga will see a stage finishing there this week
The second week starts with a couple of chances for the sprinters, making it 9 in-a-row from the start, though the arrive at Peñon de Gibraltar could make things interesting for other kind of riders.
But the GC battle will start with the long TT (56 km) in Cadiz in the 10th stage. From here it's day by day increasing the intensity of stages, with a hilly-top finish followed by two monster mountain stages in Hazallanas and Sierra de Lujar, before finishing the week with a shorter TT in Tarazona, but with the Moncayo featured there, won't be as the Cadiz TT
The final week with the last chance for the sprinters to get a stage win, though it looks like the kind of route perfect for a breakaway win. Then it comes a big stage in Andorra, followed by another great mountain stage finishing in Peyragudes.
Then an easier finish in Espinalbet before the two final days, where the GC should be decided. First stage finishes in descent, after climbing Puerto de Sahun, while the final stage will see the riders having to climb Alto de L'Angliru in order to finish this race
In overall, an ackward route, with the GC stages really backloaded, and a first week all for the sprinters
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | | 2017 |  A.Schleck |  Dombrowski |  Pluchkin | | 2016 |  Gesink | Pluchkin |  Machado | | 2015 | Pluchkin |  Tenorio | Gesink | | 2014 |  Alarcon | Contador | Tenorio | | 2013 | Tenorio |  Nibali | Contador | | 2012 | Madrazo | Contador | Intxausti | | 2011 | Valverde | A.Schleck | Rujano | | 2010 | A.Schleck | Intxausti | Gomez Marchante | | 2009 | Mancebo | Gesink | Plaza | | 2008 |  Vinokourov | Gutierrez Cataluña | Dekker | | 2007 | Mancebo | Kashechkin | Gomez Marchante |
Last year Andy Schleck won this race for the second time, tying Mancebo as the only riders to have won La Vuelta twice in the MG era, and being just one win for the absolute record of Tony Rominger and Roberto Heras. But the Luxemborgian decided to race this year Il Giro (which he won, becoming the first rider in MG era to win each GT twice, and only the second rider in the history of the sport to do so).
So with none of the riders that finished on the podium in 2017 back in the race, and with three past winners present, it looks like we have an open field, though that doesn't mean it's a weak field. Let's see who is here in the race
Leading the startlist is 2012 winner  Angel Madrazo. It's been a long time since the Spanish climber was considered the top favourite in a GT. He's the best climber in pure climbing strenght, one of the best timetrialists and not a weak puncheur of the startlist, so anything but winning the third Grand Tour of his career would be a disappointment
The last Spanish GT (and Vuelta) winner is back in the race.  Justo Tenorio surely dreams about repeating the win he got in 2013, but a lot of time has passed since and he has never lived up to the hype he produced with that win
And the final former winner is the Venezuelan  Jose Alarcon. Probably the best climber in the race given his all-round skills (only in pure mountain), his big problem is that by the time that the first mountain stage comes, he could have lost a lot of time between the 55-km TT and the hilly stage
One rider you would say that has a great chance of adding a GT to his palmares is  Taylor Phinney. As the best timetrialist in the world, he can make big gains in the two TT and then try to hold that gap in the mountain. And if you arrive with him in a finish, his sprint will give him the edge in case of stage win decisions
24 years old and already a GT contender.  Silvio Herklotz has become one of the best riders in the world, and so far this season he's been showing it. It's hard to imagine how he can make time on Madrazo in the mountain or just not get destroyed by Phinney in the TT's, but no one should rule him out of the battle for the win
And the last of the riders that should have a chance to fight for the podium is  Timofey Kritskiy. He's basically the same rider as Tenorio, the same mountain/tt combo skills and the same lack of acceleration.
In a second level of favourites, those that should fight at best for a Top5, we have a couple of interesting riders like  Daniel Martin and  Rigoberto Uran. The first one can really use his puncheur skills to gain time in the hills, while Uran looks like a weaker Tenorio but with better acceleration.
 Mattia Cattaneo,  Beñat Intxausti,  David Abal and  Ryan Eastman all are the same type of rider. Great climber, good timetrialist, horrible puncheur. For all of them, having a great first TT will be key should they want to finish in the Top10 of the race
 Warren Barguil and  Florentino Marquez are two lesser skilled climbers that could finish above his level with their great kicks, being able to follow easily attacks and maybe anticipate to the favourite's moves.
And other riders that could have something to say in the Top10 battle are  Daan Olivier,  Nico Keinath,  Patrick Schelling,  Nairo Quintana or  Fredrik Strand Galta
| MON | TT | HILL | ACC | | MON | TT | HILL | ACC | | Madrazo | 85 | 77 | 76 | 72 | Marquez | 80 | 70 | 71 | 80 | | Phinney | 83 | 83 | 77 | 75 |  Haig | 78 | 77 | 74 | 73 | | Herklotz | 83 | 74 | 77 | 76 | Keinath | 79 | 75 | 76 | 70 | | Tenorio | 84 | 80 | 76 | 67 | Olivier | 80 | 69 | 76 | 71 | | Kritskiy | 84 | 80 | 75 | 67 | Galta | 81 | 73 | 73 | 64 | | Martin | 82 | 73 | 77 | 76 | Schelling | 80 | 72 | 75 | 70 | | Úran | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 | Goos | 77 | 76 | 74 | 73 | | Cattaneo | 82 | 79 | 70 | 70 |  Faiers | 78 | 75 | 71 | 73 | | Barguil | 81 | 70 | 75 | 75 | Quintana | 81 | 71 | 74 | 66 | | Intxausti | 82 | 77 | 71 | 70 | Chiarello | 78 | 73 | 75 | 72 | | Alarcon | 84 | 67 | 73 | 78 | Kolesnikov | 77 | 72 | 72 | 77 | | Abal | 81 | 77 | 70 | 73 | Nerz | 80 | 73 | 72 | 68 | | Eastman | 81 | 76 | 71 | 69 | Karnulin | 78 | 70 | 74 | 70 |
One would think that a GT so favorable for sprinters, having the first 9 stage for them, and the chance of getting the race lead for several days, would atract a lot of top sprinters to the race. But it has turned out to be the opposite, as maybe teams were scared of the possible super field and sent their sprinters to the other GT. Was it a wrong decision? I guess that depends if the top sprinters here basically win everything, or the outsiders can take wins
Ben Swift has been the best sprinter in the world for years, and with a team that will fully support him, Aegon shouldn't fear the issues that they've been having this season with their sprinters
 Bryan Coquard is in his breakthrough season, reaching the level of the top sprinters already, recently winning the Lisbon Classic
So already two 84 sprinters and that's pretty much it
Next best sprinter is Peter Kennaugh, who is not even close to the level of Swift and Coquard but given his great flat skills, a crosswind day could favour him a lot
Same can be said of Leigh Howard, though his lower acceleration could damage his chances in the sprints
Nick Van der Lijke is here just for the Gibraltar stage, where he's the one and only favourite. Not winning that stage would be a massive failure.
Desigual has decided to bring here both of his 81 sprinters, with Maksimov and Zabel. Iirc, they've already been in some races together this year and it didn't work out. It's a big risk, given the team should also support Tenorio's GC hopes.
Sondre Holst Enger has won a stage in the race the last two years, so while not being a top sprinter, he really likes the race
Then you have some sprinters that should never have a chance to even sprint in PT races, but you know, we have a sprinter-focused GT without sprinters, so this guys could surprise and get good stage results. Kupfernagel, Chen, Stallaert, Soupe or Keough.
| SPR | ACC | FLA | HIL | | SPR | ACC | FLA | HIL | | Coquard | 84 | 83 | 73 | 65 | Enger | 81 | 78 | 73 | 69 | | Swift | 84 | 82 | 74 | 68 | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | 74 | 64 | | Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 77 | 65 | Keough | 79 | 79 | 73 | 62 | | Howard | 82 | 79 | 76 | 68 | Chen | 79 | 78 | 74 | 63 | | Maksimov | 81 | 84 | 72 | 60 | Clarke | 79 | 78 | 72 | 62 | | Van der Lijke | 81 | 79 | 73 | 76 | Soupe | 79 | 77 | 72 | 66 | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 74 | 69 | Stallaert | 79 | 76 | 77 | 67 |
With a route heavily focused on sprints and high mountains, there's no much room left for other type of stages. There are a couple of hilly stages, but obviously this didn't bring any big puncheur here, with Borges being the only decent one here, looking forward to Stage 11 and maybe Gibraltar stage too. Every other decent puncheur in the race is here because of his climbing skills.
And about the timetrialists, we have Phinney dominating the field, with other GC riders like Tenorio, Kritskiy or Cattaneo next. The other pure timetrialists with any chance of getting a stage win should be Van Winden, Cataford and Dempster
| Timetrialists | TT | HILL | REC | Puncheurs | HIL | ACC | MON | | Phinney | 83 | 77 | 76 | van der Hugenhaben | 79 | 64 | 76 | | Tenorio | 80 | 76 | 79 | Borges | 78 | 81 | 70 | | Kritskiy | 80 | 75 | 78 | Phinney | 77 | 75 | 83 | | Van Winden | 80 | 63 | 74 | Herklotz | 77 | 76 | 83 | | Cataford | 79 | 70 | 73 | Martin | 77 | 76 | 82 | | Cattaneo | 79 | 70 | 80 | Zardini | 77 | 68 | 76 | | Dempster | 79 | 64 | 73 | Mager | 77 | 71 | 74 | | Úran | 78 | 74 | 77 | Tratnik | 77 | 70 | 73 | | Madrazo | 77 | 76 | 81 | Madrazo | 76 | 72 | 85 |
So this is pretty much all. Surely an exciting race coming up, with a different GT winner than the usual winners in the recent seasons
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| SotD |
Posted on 07-12-2018 10:54
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World Champion
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Damnit! I really hoped Aegon decided against bringing Swift here. Could cost a huge amount of points, as I had a secret hope of landing 5 stagewins here. Now I might come away with none...
On the happy side, really pleased to see Alarcon, Madrazo, Herklotz, Tenorio, Phinney and Kritskiy here as it rules them out for the Tour de France. Better chance for Lecuisinier to actually get close to the top 5...
For the GC here we come with Chamorro and van der Hugenhaben, so no expectations really. Chamorro has proven before that he really sucks when there's flat stages and long run-ins for the mountains so my only chance for succes in the long run is that he is hit by the angel of breakaways so he can fight for a stagewin and some KOM points. Otherwise we will be invisible from stage 10 onwards.
van der Hugenhaben is, on paper, one of the stage favorites for stage 11 and 19 but both are quite clearly for the climbers rather than the puncheurs. If van der Hugenhaben can ride a passive top 25 we should be content with that. Especially if Chamorro can be somewhat active. Everyone else is here for Coquard. It will be interesting to see which train works the best here. It will be the decider of A LOT of points for Aegon and myself.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 07-12-2018 15:44
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Looks like a potential good race this, with Phinney who should be in the lead after the first two weeks. From there he should face a tough challenge from Madrazo, Herklotz etc.
Don't expect Martin to be in the fight for victory, but hope to see him pushing for a top 5, at least getting a top 10. Should have good support.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 07-12-2018 20:35
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Grand Tour Champion
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Grand Tour debut 
Hopefully Úran will have a good race with no pressure. Top ten and a few good stages will do. Rest of the team are basically leftovers not racing in any of the clashes. Some breakaway appearances are the best I could hope for them.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 10:16
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 07-12-2018 21:31
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Really looking forward to this! Win goal, so hopefully no disaster days like Alarcon had in the giro.
Really good field here, although the giro was stacked aswell and Alarcon still managed to squese in two stage wins. So excited to see what he could manage here!
Super-hard to pick a favourite for the win here, this could go so many different ways I feel.
Thanks for the superb preview aqua!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 08-12-2018 05:10
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No points for us here, but lets see what can be taken away from those PT teams. Will see if Eastman has any real future as a team leader with this race or if he takes a spot as a nice domestique down the road. This 21 days should give insight to how well Eastman can do in a grand tour, as the 21 days across the pond will be vital to Azteca's future.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| ember |
Posted on 08-12-2018 08:04
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Amazing preview, Aquarius97! And very nice to see another GT in the making 
This will be a difficult one  After last year's GTs with Galta, a top 10 feels very optimistic in such competition. A top 15 will be difficult and a success if he makes it. And looking at my other riders here, we don't have much to fight with on the mountain stages.
For the sprint stages, Holst Enger will suffer, which was to be expected. Any significant points he might get from this, will be a huge bonus. Seeing the sprinters here, it's easy to say that I should've put Ciolek here and not in the Giro, especially with his terrible Giro fresh in memory. |
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| ember |
Posted on 09-12-2018 12:39
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Wow, a very pleasant surprise to see Holst Enger run away with second place there. Beating both Coquard and Swift needs a lot of luck for a rider like Holst Enger, so this stage gave us far more than expected, that's for sure!
Also a surprise winner in Howard, congratulations, tsmoha. Cool to see him get a win in all GTs and compelte that feat. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 09-12-2018 14:57
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Beating Swift, only to finish 3rd is a huge bummer.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-12-2018 14:59
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Cameratime on our debut, good job Marcos. Major mixing it in the sprint somehow.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 09-12-2018 19:43
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World Champion
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Not expecting much here. But I hope that we will somehow keep our record of at least one Vuelta stage per year intact.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-12-2018 10:19
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Ah ffs Enger, starting of in white would've been really cool. Awesome work by Groselj. And a very nice first report!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 10-12-2018 10:58
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Quiet start to the race for us, as expected. At least nice to have Lindgren in the break, but it was always going to be very tough to stay away.
Could have been a very crucial puncture for Phinney, but just saved it in the end. I guess that was a big relief, jt!
Congrats to the winners so far.
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-12-2018 11:32
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Fuck yeah! Finally Coquard landed a Grand Tour stagewin!
Before the race we hoped for 5, but knowing how difficult that would be, we instead adjusted to score ~ 50 points pr. stage up until stage 8. So far we must be a little bit ahead of schedule securing 95 or so from the stage today and ~ 30 yesterday.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-12-2018 11:46
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At least Lammertink got some points out of this
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| ember |
Posted on 10-12-2018 12:08
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More like expected from Holst Enger there, which I'm happy with. A day in the points jersey was also fun Though, strongly doubt he'll get to touch that jersey again this Vuelta
Must say this is nice, as all sprint stages are kind of a bonus now, after his brilliant second place on the first stage. Hopefully he'll be able to take his chances, and stage 3 could be one of them, as a lumpier stagem which should suit him well.
Congratulations on the win, SotD! |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 10-12-2018 15:42
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Sprints aren't going as planned for our two-headed monster. Maksimov and Zabel can't seem to position themselves in a good spot before the final dash.
At least Tenorio is staying out of trouble and finishing high up in the sprints. Nearly gained time on Phinney, but glad he made it back. Doesn't feel right to take advantage of a situation like that.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 10-12-2018 16:27
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It is amazing how Stallaert and Bertilsson gets better results then Ahlstrand i GTs |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 10-12-2018 19:29
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Hah, Kennaugh beaten one of his leadout men on stage 1 and two of them on stage 2. Not exactly an ideal start to this race where we're hoping to get a few stage wins. |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-12-2018 21:08
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Go Marcos! 
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