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GP Herning Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:07
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Directeur Sportif
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 GP Herning
The month concludes with another chance for the PCT's best cobblers to fight for a prestigious victory: the GP Herning goes into it's 8th edition since first being held back in 2008 (taking an one year break in 2011 and a two-years break from 2013 to 2014). A pretty flat profile, that does not hit the 200km mark, but that comes with several challenging sectors of pavé. We've seen quite different races unfold in the previous editions - with either sprints from a reduced front group or solo victories from a more selective race.
What has not been different though, is the past two winners of the event: Geraint Thomas (2016-2017 and 2008) certainly loves this race in Denmark, as he's the clear record winner with already three victories in the past nine years! It's really no surprise to see him at the startlist again and given his performances in this 2018 season so far, he should fancy his chances to add another Herning title to his palmares. Other previous race-winners are Fabien Taillefour (2015), Jérome Giaux (2012), Niels Albert (2010) and Marcel Sieberg (2009). Which leads to quite an interesting constellation, when we are now going to look at this year's startlist:
The Startlist
The Favorites | Favorites | FL | CO | SP | | Outsiders | FL | CO | SP |  Blythe | 76 | 82 | 76 | |  Taillefour | 77 | 78 | 54 |  Vanspeybrouck | 76 | 82 | 67 | |  Chatarunga | 72 | 77 | 70 |  Zepuntke | 72 | 81 | 72 | | Sinkeldam | 74 | 77 | 68 |  Vanbilsen | 78 | 80 | 72 | |  Bolivar | 73 | 77 | 64 | | Vanmarcke | 76 | 80 | 70 | | Kosic | 72 | 77 | 59 |  Baugnies | 78 | 80 | 65 | |  Gaudin | 74 | 77 | 57 |  Burghardt | 75 | 80 | 65 | | Insausti | 70 | 77 | 57 | | Nolf | 74 | 80 | 63 | |  Saber | 75 | 76 | 81 | | Thomas | 75 | 79 | 74 | |  Nepomnyachsniy | 74 | 76 | 78 |  Fenn | 72 | 79 | 70 | | Thwaites | 73 | 76 | 78 |  Maes | 80 | 79 | 62 | |  Rowe | 78 | 75 | 79 |  Theuns | 72 | 78 | 77 | | Matthews | 72 | 75 | 76 | | Bush | 74 | 78 | 71 | |  Kuroeda | 72 | 75 | 76 | | David | 74 | 78 | 70 | | Lander | 77 | 73 | 79 |  Van Keirsbulck | 72 | 78 | 70 | | Harrison | 72 | 73 | 78 | | Albert | 75 | 78 | 63 | | Giaux | 73 | 71 | 77 |
Except of Sieberg, all past race-winners are at the start again this season! The already mentioned Thomas as one of the favorites for the victory and then there's also Taillefour, Giaux and Albert participating again. Their chances to repeat a victory look slim though, as they should mainly work as premium domestiques for their leaders this time. Giaux as something like a dark horse, if the race will come down to a bunch sprint from a rather big leading group. It seems unlikely, however.
The top favorites are other riders: Blythe, Vanspeybrouck, Zepuntke, Vanbilsen, Vanmarcke, Baugnies, Thomas, Fenn, Maes, Theuns, Bush, David, Saber or Nepomnyachsniy as maybe the outstanding names on the startlist. The few latter riders such as Saber and Theuns will be dangerous in a sprint from a reduced group - something, they already did show this season. The other riders will (as always) try to make it a selective race though and obviously, there are plenty of opportunities to go for such a scenario here. The ever aggressive Baugnies, as well as riders like Vanspeybrouck/Nolf, Maes or Burghardt definitely need to avoid a sprint situtation, where other guys should be considered the better finishers.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:17
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Vanmarcke has had a great season so far, without never a bad day, and always between 3rd and 6th in all his races. Now a HC race where there's an opportunity to score big points even with a Top5 result, so he better not fail this time. His semi-decent sprint should help him get a good result in the sprint for the win, because we all know that this race ends up in a 10-15 rider sprint, as every year
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:26
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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This race is always our biggest home race and win goal, and every year we don't even come close. I'd like to win it this year.
I built a team for this race, and I'd like it to mean something. Can we actually use our numbers and strength over the cobbles for once? Please? Just this once? I'm not optimistic, but I really hope for a miracle.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:26
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Don't think we'll get much from here, given the profile. But Saber has surprised before and hope he can over-perform again. Maybe Per has another good day helping out his leader too. A bit surprised that he's not on the outsiders' list!
Thanks for the preview 
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:30
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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Not a hope in hell G will do three-in-a-row here, it's not going to happen. Between himself and Marcus we should be challenging for the Top5 and again using our depth in riders like Matthews and Grashev to get a few more lower placing points.
Smart AI would use Marcus as an attacker, force others to chase and allow G to sit in a small group and go for it in a mad dash to finish.
What i expect to happen i G attacking like a madman from 30km to go before not having a sprint to compete and finishing lower in a group dash.
Optimisitc 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:32
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World Champion
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Oh, good to see we're not quite finished with the cobbles yet. Come on Vanbilsen, one more good race from you!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 15-10-2018 14:46
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Tour de France Champion
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Baugnies is unbeatable here.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 15-10-2018 15:47
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Vanmarcke and Baugines have been immense so far this season and I expect that to keep going, with Pieter sneaking his way up there too!
Should be a good race. Suits Maes as a pure flat race where his stats can be fully utilised. He’s been great so far this season, hopefully he keeps it up.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Vien |
Posted on 15-10-2018 16:21
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Don't see too many chances for us here. Way too flat.
Any point will be welcome. |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 15-10-2018 19:24
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Go Minions!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-10-2018 20:44
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Given PCM15's apparent love of letting this be a sprint, maybe Rowe can perform a la Saber in SAA, but I'm not massively hopeful given his lack of form this year compared to at Grieg - I think he needs a clearly better leader, so maybe Debesay can be that next year at least if we stay up! Hope for a break and a top 10 between our riders, but not super hopeful of the latter given the terrain and preview!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 15-10-2018 22:08
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Kurth managed a top 30 in the last race, can he repeat that great (for him) result?
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 16-10-2018 01:06
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World Champion
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Hope one of the Kuroedas can do well. If we cant take the win, then I'd have to say Im rooting for Carlsberg!
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 16-10-2018 12:17
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The usual WCC cobbles crew in attendance. Performances form this unit have been a bit patchy this season, sometimes up, sometimes down. Bush has been our main contributer, and relying on him again to provide some leadership for us. Good to be racing again whatever the case, feels like has been ages; spoiled by the speed of reporting and our packed calendar at the start of the season, Has been a wee gap, now 2 or 3 races tightly packed, then a big gap in racing ahead known by most folks as April! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 16-10-2018 17:53
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World Champion
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Nope, not even close what we hoped for. Then again, it's not Carlsberg bad.
Vanbilsen just not aggresive enough this year. So much energy spent chasing instead of trying to attack for once.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 16-10-2018 18:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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And that is how you use reverse psychology! I don't know why G does so well in this race. He's not the best cobbler, he's not the best sprinter, and he's not the best cobble-sprinter. And yet he delivers a hattrick of Herning victories! Fucking legend! Absolute fucking legend! I'm going to cry when i let him leave the team at the end of the season...
Also Marcus inside the Top10 is great, more points! And Grashev inside the Top25 again showing our depth. Cobbles still are our main strenght, can't wait for next year when neither Marcus of G will be competitive on the terrain and we have to do something new!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 16-10-2018 18:22
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So, we get 6th in Ronde, where points don't matter. Then we can't even scrounge a top 15 on home soil in the top HC cobbles race.
Yup, sounds about right.
Guess it's impossible to complain after the De Panne win, but it seems VSB's cobbles stat is not working the DB, or tsmoha's game is broken or something, or he's toying with his performance since VSB is his former rider. I don't know. Can't expect even the slightest bit of competence from my team though, that's for sure.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 16-10-2018 18:26
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Of course the bad day came in the HC classic. 12th isn't good in a race with some many points at stake, but at least Taillefour was in the Top30 too to give a few minor points too.
Thomas is just a beast in this race. One of the biggest dominance in the MG history despite not being an actually top cobbler, like Boonen and Bewley were in the dominance of PT races, or Cunego in the Giro
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 16-10-2018 21:00
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11819
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baseballlover312 wrote:
So, we get 6th in Ronde, where points don't matter. Then we can't even scrounge a top 15 on home soil in the top HC cobbles race.
Yup, sounds about right.
Guess it's impossible to complain after the De Panne win, but it seems VSB's cobbles stat is not working the DB, or tsmoha's game is broken or something, or he's toying with his performance since VSB is his former rider. I don't know. Can't expect even the slightest bit of competence from my team though, that's for sure.
Actually, I would love to "deliver" big results for VSB 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 16-10-2018 21:18
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World Champion
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That was just awful Congrats to T3A and thanks to tsmoha
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
