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Hong Kong Challenge Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 12-09-2018 07:10
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Directeur Sportif
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 Hong Kong Challenge
The Hong Kong Challenge is a new race on the calendar and in just three days of racing, there's quite a mix of different terrains: the opening hilly parcours through Hong Kong (with a flat finish down to Hong Sports House) features a challenging loop with the 'Mount Nicholson' (2.2km, 7.5% slopes) as the final climb before a short downhill sector to the line. Definitely a tricky stage, that should make for an interesting start into this rather short stage race.
Timetrial skills will be needed on the second day then, where a 22km parcours from Sunny Bay to the Hong Kong Sports Institute is on the menu. The queen stage on day three will definitely mix the GC again though: starting from Hong Kong city, the route will lead the peloton in the metropole's outback - with the highest mountain in the region to be climbed twice eventually: the 'Tai Mo Shan' - the final climb will reach the summit of this berg, that will feature average slopes of 8% with a total length of 9.5km.. the mix of terrains will surely suit an allrounder, but this final climb may be the most important of all three key stages here.
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Allrounders | MO | HI | TT | | Puncheurs | MO | HI | TT |  Pinot | 80 | 74 | 65 | |  Meyer | 69 | 79 | 69 |  König | 79 | 75 | 74 | | Hategeka | 72 | 77 | 66 |  Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 64 | | Umerbekov | 70 | 76 | 63 |  Warbasse | 78 | 75 | 74 | |  Budyak | 72 | 74 | 68 |  Cataldo | 77 | 74 | 68 | |  Marzuki | 71 | 74 | 64 |  Henao | 76 | 76 | 63 | | Gidich | 72 | 73 | 73 | | Jang | 76 | 76 | 62 | |  Reus | 70 | 73 | 78 | | Nitu | 76 | 74 | 65 | | Climbers | | | | | Anguilet | 76 | 74 | 63 | | Atapuma | 78 | 73 | 62 | | Seibeb | 75 | 76 | 66 | |  Panayotov | 78 | 72 | 68 |  Lopez | 74 | 76 | 69 | |  Diaz | 78 | 70 | 72 | | Cuming | 74 | 74 | 72 | | Stancu | 78 | 69 | 66 |  Sanchez Gil | 73 | 75 | 71 | | Topchanyuk | 77 | 73 | 65 | | | | | | Brajkovic | 77 | 72 | 74 | | | | | | Hirschlein | 77 | 71 | 69 | | | | | | | | | |
So there's the climbers, who can handle hills as well: Pinot as the best mountain goat around in the CT and obviously, he has to be one of the favorites for the inaugaral edition of the Hong Kong Challenge. He does lack the timetrial skills opposing to those two guys, who may be considered the top-favorites for the GC win: König and Warbasse. Both can handle hills slightly better than Pinot (who's acceleration ain't too encouraging either) and - even more important - they should gain valuable time in the challenge against the clock: 22km can do some damage and that's definitely quite an advantage for König and Warbasse. The podium has to be the goal anyway.
Other MO/HI allrounders do lack the TT skills, too: Pomoshnikov, Cataldo, Henao, Jang, Nitu, Seibeb, Anguilet, Lopez.. given the importance of mountain skills, they all should be Top-10 contenders nevertheless though, but they will need to somehow limit the damage in the timetrial. Guys like Cuming or an aging Sanchez Gil may be considered outsider's bets for a Top-10 result here.
A few more strong climbers like Atapuma, Panayotov, Diaz, Stancu, Topchanyuk, Brajkovic or Hirschlein do lack strength in the hills - but to be fair, they are not much worse than Pinot or Pomoshnikov and so they have to be considered real threats for at least a Top-10 result as well.
And then there's the puncheurs, who could potentially survive the final mountain stage without destroying all their GC ambitiouns: Meyer as the far superior puncheur on the startlist. He simply has to go for the first stage and gain time on all those climbers, who are so much better on the final day. Hategeka as an interesting puncheur, too: he's actually quite solid on mountains. Not really puncheurs, but amongst the more promising non-premium climbers for the opening day: Reus (who's amongst the best timetrial horses) and Gidich, who will try to fight for the U25 classification.
The Stage Hunters | Puncheurs | MO | HI | TT | | Timetrial Specialists | MO | HI | TT | | Othman | 68 | 76 | 56 | | Mottin | 58 | 61 | 79 |  Haas | 65 | 76 | 68 | | Sterobo | 71 | 62 | 78 | | Pibernik | 65 | 76 | 60 | | Reus | 70 | 73 | 78 |  Wang | 69 | 75 | 64 | | Martin | 67 | 71 | 78 | | Gunman | 65 | 75 | 70 | | Kovalev | 54 | 56 | 78 | | Chérel | 61 | 75 | 67 | | Postlberger | 58 | 68 | 77 | | | | | | Laizer | 52 | 58 | 77 | | | | | |  Haga | 75 | 72 | 76 | | | | | | Grabovski | 70 | 70 | 76 | | | | | |  Rajapakshage | 64 | 70 | 76 | | | | | |  Porte | 64 | 70 | 76 | | | | | | Kochetkov | 64 | 60 | 76 | | | | | | Beukeboom | 56 | 64 | 76 | | | | | | Roe | 75 | 73 | 75 | | | | | | Barton | 73 | 65 | 75 |
Lacking the needed skills on longer climbs, those puncheurs like Othman, Haas, Pibernik or Wang will mainly target for a good result in the opening stage only - or ride in a pure support role, when needed. Those guys may benefit from a rather quiet race, in which the climbers decide to play it easy on the first stage.
The TT though will be a different game: the already mentioned Reus is definitely a favorite, just like his teammates Martin and Kovalev - a key day for Swisslion, which simply has to hope for at least one rider on the stage podium. Mottin as the best pure TT horse, followed by Sterobo and the already mentioned Swisslion trio.
Several more possible contenders for the stage are: Postlberger, Laizer, Haga (who's a possible dark horse for the GC as well), Grabovski, Rajapakshage, Porte, Kochetkov or Beukeboom. Just like Haga, there's also Roe or Barton with a good chance to be in the mix for a notable GC result, if they deliver big time in the timetrial.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 08:15
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 12-09-2018 07:33
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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Popo CT Mountain train here... Decided to make Topchanyuk our leader in C2 races. Paired with Padun, Nitu and Budyak he should be able to do well enough here to take a few points.
Random TT gods, please be kind to Kochetkov and Young...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| roturn |
Posted on 12-09-2018 08:18
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Team Manager
Posts: 22246
Joined: 24-11-2007
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Normally I`d say Warbasse/König/Brajkovic and Pinot are looking strong here. But then this hill stage could become really crazy and with gaps, that are hard to gain again.
Will be all about a lucky good form on that hill stage I think.
Even Meyer suddenly could get a big GC if going crazy on that first stage.
Love this addition to the MG. Yet another unpredictable race as TONE, Tour of Japan etc. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 12-09-2018 08:26
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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We are throwing the kitchen sink at this race so to speak 
Excited to see Reus and Martin make their debuts 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 08:37
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
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Lopez ftw!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 09:00
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
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First CT race for us in a while. Russom here as a decent enough stage racer hoping for a top-20 in GC! Strong startlist to contend with here, so I think it’s gonna be hard to to accomplish for sure. Hope to see us flying the flag in the chase for the KOM too!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 12-09-2018 09:32
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
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Surprised to not see Bogota here after their Catalunya exploits! Good chance for Konig to get the win, on paper, but who knows how it will play out.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 12-09-2018 09:55
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
Joined: 12-06-2013
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Given my team is here with 8 talents I can't say I'm expecting a lot. Hopefully Ganna to show his face in the TT. And hopefully my riders join the breakaway on both the opening stage and final stage as I have riders capable of doing alright in the KOM.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 12-09-2018 10:14
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
Joined: 20-07-2008
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Go Diesel! I'm hoping for some visibility in the first stage and perhaps a good stage result with Wang.
As to the GC, maybe another GCN show of force with the ever menacing Pinot.
Good luck everyone! Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 12-09-2018 11:37
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
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How is MAL on GC contenders list I have no idea, but I wont complain. Too bad hes gonna lose a lot of time on TT stage, so I hope Izagirre can deliver a a top 20 finish alongside MAL
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| Bikex |
Posted on 12-09-2018 11:38
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Team Leader
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First C2 race of the season for us, let's see what Jang, Marzuki and Postlberger can do when leading the team. |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 11:54
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
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We are here because we were "forced"  Maybe Roson can get some U25 place, though it's unlikely with his terrible TT. Pirazzi for the breakaways i hope, but maybe he's too good for this level to get in the breakaways.
Anything we take from here is an extra. Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 12:03
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World Champion
Posts: 10845
Joined: 29-10-2007
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Winning the U25 TT competition against Gidich et al would be a goal to aim for for Ganna here. Maybe a Top 20 or Top 25 on the day?
The two mass start stages should definitely contain Euskaltel riders, but others in that team are more suited to that task.
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 12:36
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Team Leader
Posts: 7297
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Not expecting too much here after seeing the field...
But super excited to see how Gunman, Haasand Roe go!!
Good luck everyone
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 12-09-2018 14:33
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
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Hard to guess what Cataldo might get out of this, so just the more the the more the merrier, but a top ten seems realistic.
Quite sad by planning did not allow for a tempo rider in this race. (check: another mistake  )
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 12-09-2018 15:09
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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Preety stoked here.. not a goal race for us but we certainly brought a massive team..
Mottin will have the target of winning the ITT, as Laizer will, and Kireva if well can peek through some minot placings.
Warbasse will certainly be in the fight for the win. Konig seems to be in a higher level but he hasn't shown his true self this season, and I'm hoping that it'll be too many TT Kms for Pinot.
He will have support, Baltazar and Hirschlein are here to push him up the mountain. Uwi also to fight for a U25 placing as he's done several times already this season.
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| Roman |
Posted on 12-09-2018 15:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4386
Joined: 29-05-2007
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I am really looking forward to this race, the profile looks fantastic, hopefully the AI plays out this race well.
Looking forward to see my amateurs here. Some break attempts plus maybe a decent GC result from Kulhavy? Could be fun.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 12-09-2018 17:04
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Grand Tour Champion
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Final C2 race of the season. That went by quickly.
Haga is the leader and if his Catalunya performance is anything to go by he's a threat for the TT and maybe the mountain stage, but he has to limit his loss in the first stage.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 12-09-2018 17:26
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
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Looking forward to this race just to see how we perform. |
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 12-09-2018 17:32
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2933
Joined: 09-05-2011
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Following our Catalunya performance, Hong Kong serves as another test event for the team.
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