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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2018
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 15-08-2018 17:35
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Format Reminder
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
It's not a method without it's issues, but the formulas are in place, and it doesn't take too much work to update them - so let's see what they've come up with.
Category Rankings
| Hills | Stage Races | Sprints | | 1 | Reddit | Popo4Ever | Podium Ambition | | 2 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Ayubowan! | Iberia - Degenkolb | | 3 | Novatek | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | 4 | Meiji - JR East | Minions | Carrefour - ESPN | | 5 | World Cycling Centre | Meiji - JR East | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 6 | Ayubowan! | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | Novatek | | 7 | Netia - Vónin | Repsol - Netflix | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | | 8 | Nordstrom - BioWare | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | Philips - Continental | | 9 | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Kulczyk - DMTEX | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | 10 | Fablok - Bank BGZ | cycleYorkshire | Carlsberg - Danske Bank |
| Time Trial | Cobbles | Climbs | | 1 | Carrefour - ESPN | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Ayubowan! | | 2 | cycleYorkshire | Iberia - Degenkolb | Kulczyk - DMTEX | | 3 | Reddit | Minions | Meiji - JR East | | 4 | Novatek | Podium Ambition | Philips - Continental | | 5 | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Kulczyk - DMTEX | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | 6 | Generali - EDF | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | Repsol - Netflix | | 7 | Popo4Ever | Repsol - Netflix | World Cycling Centre | | 8 | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 9 | Euskaltel - Elior | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Minions | | 10 | Philips - Continental | World Cycling Centre | SPAR - Shimano - SCG |
| | HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL |  | Ayubowan! | 6 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 1 |  | Azteca - NBCSN | 22 | 11 | 14 | 24 | 25 | 11 |  | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 17 | 21 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 20 |  | Carrefour - ESPN | 24 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 26 |  | cycleYorkshire | 26 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 12 |  | Euskaltel - Elior | 14 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 23 | 17 |  | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 10 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 14 |  | Generali - EDF | 12 | 13 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 15 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 23 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 24 |  | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 9 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 8 |  | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 2 | 23 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 22 |  | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 18 | 9 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 2 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 11 | 16 | 7 | 25 | 6 | 18 |  | Meiji - JR East | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 3 |  | Minions | 21 | 4 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 |  | Netia - Vónin | 7 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 25 |  | Nordstrom - BioWare | 8 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 23 |  | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | 3 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 16 |  | Philips - Continental | 16 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 4 |  | Podium Ambition | 20 | 18 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 21 |  | Repsol - Netflix | 13 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 7 | 6 |  | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | 15 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 |  | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 19 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 26 | 13 |  | Team Reddit | 1 | 25 | 25 | 3 | 18 | 19 |  | World Cycling Centre | 5 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 10 | 7 |  | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 25 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 13 | 5 |
Overall Prediction
| 1 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 2 | | Ayubowan! | | 3 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | 4 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 5 | | Meiji - JR East | | 6 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | 7 | | Philips - Continental | | 8 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 9 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 10 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | | 11 | | Podium Ambition | | 12 | | cycleYorkshire | | 13 | | Minions | | 14 | | World Cycling Centre | | 15 | | Carrefour - ESPN | | 16 | | Generali - EDF | | 17 | | Repsol - Netflix | | 18 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 19 | | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | 20 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 21 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | 22 | | Team Reddit | | 23 | | Euskaltel - Elior | | 24 | | Netia - Vónin | | 25 | | Nordstrom - BioWare | | 26 | | Azteca - NBCSN |
The evidence certainly points to a very competitive PCT season, with different teams showing strength in different areas. Ayubowan, Spar and Novatek all top at least one of the four ranking options listed below, but it is Indosat who are most consistent across all measures, and therefore predicted for the title - ahead of the other three. Meiji a close 5th, being predicted to promote in three of the four measures.
Fablok and the expected best-newcomers Philips are also predicted fairly consistently across the four measures, but for many other teams there is quite some variety. Carrefour demonstrate this in particular, with a 4th and a 21st in there, while both Kulcyzk and Podium Ambition vary from 6th to 20th; Minions with the same range a notch lower.
Mixed fortunes predicted for the three relegation PT teams. While Ayubowan are predicted for a comfortable return for the top flight, we see Iberia and Popo4Ever predicted only just making the Top 20, more likely to end up in CT than back in PT. Certainly both have strengths, led by Degenkolb, Blythe and Pluchkin - but lack the depth that could be crucial over a long season. Iberia especially polarized, rated right near the bottom of the climbing-related tables.
Still, the strength of their leaders may be enough to see them through the season. This is predicted not to be the case for Reddit, despite Lutsenko leading them to top of the Hills category. Albeit, they are only predicted to relegate in one of the four ranking options aside from the overall - but just being pushed down by Xero.
More consistency amongst the final 4 teams. Just as last year the formulas expect Euskaltel to relegate, while it is the 3rd year running for Netia  Nordstrom and Azteca are the two others tipped for the drop.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | 1 | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | 3 | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | | | 6 | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | 9 | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | 11 | | | | | | | | 12 | | | | | | | | 13 | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | 15 | | | | | | | | 16 | | | | | | | | 17 | | | | | | | | 18 | | | | | | | | 19 | | | | | | | | 20 | | | | | | | | 21 | | | | | | | | 22 | | | | | | | | 23 | | | | | | | | 24 | | | | | | | | 25 | | | | | | | | 26 | | | | | | |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 15-08-2018 17:38
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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At least we're consistently 25th
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| Bikex |
Posted on 15-08-2018 17:49
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 25-08-2012
PCM$: 600.00
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Damned we're predicted 3rd. 
That probably means if I don't end up near the top, I'll only be able to blame my retarded planning. 
Thanks for posting this SN! |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 15-08-2018 17:50
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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If this happens, I may as well give up and leave. Time to proof maths can be wrong.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 15-08-2018 18:17
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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9th? You sure you didn't forget a 1 there?
It's interesting to see the differences between your prediction and mine. While yours is obviously more worked out and looks more at depth then leaders, the basic principle is the same. We both bet on Indosat for the win, Spar on 3 and Meiji on 5 for promotion, but the rest is very different until the end, where we both see Euskaltel, Netia and Nordstrom on the exact same relegation spots. Interesting. Probably meaningless, but interesting
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Vien |
Posted on 15-08-2018 18:31
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Let's take this positively: A 75% chance to finish well above the relegation spots pleases me. Hope we can actually be the #1 on the hills indeed, cause it will be necessary to achieve that.
Apart from that, the bottom 4 aren't that surprising, but I feel like there are some shock predictions here with teams like Lierse and Repsol. Only time will tell if they are correct. |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 15-08-2018 18:43
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
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That is higher than I was expecting and so I guess the pressure is now on us to deliver!
Thanks for the preview
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 15-08-2018 18:48
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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Well, we’ve always been predicted to finish much worse than where we wind up finishing, so I’m not too sure what to make of being predicted first (relegation? ) Would love to go up in Goss and Anuar Aziz’s final peak seasons.
Spar, Novatek, Ayubowan, Generali and Iberia are my top-5 picks; seeing Generali and Iberia so far down is interesting. Generali with great depth should definitely be up there but Iberia with a poor run of luck could actually miss out if other cobblers and sprinters step up. Also very interested to see how Nordstrom perform - I’ve never seen such a one-dimensional team in PCT. Just maybe they can survive?
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-08-2018 19:08
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Not relegating. Sounds good to me!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 15-08-2018 19:35
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 14-09-2013
PCM$: 4500.00
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Interesting reading for sure. No prediction is ever going to be 100% accurate, or find everyone in total agreement. However I don't see many glaring differences from my own gut-check from perusing the DB focussed on PCT teams. In general I expect the promoting CT teams to each be 2-4 positions lower than indicated here, and some of the more established teams in lower mid-table (e.g. Generally, Carlsberg, TeamPopo, Iberia) to hence push up 3-4 places.
I also personally theorise that Lierse and Podium Ambition will be a fair few places lower come the end of the season than predicted here. If Ewan suddenly becomes a 1000+ point scoring sprinter this season (which he might), then my pessimism is perhaps mis-placed, if closer to 1pp/wageK, lower mid-table beckons rather than upper mid-table.
Given the purpose of predictions is to spur MG discussion while we wait for the season to commence, then the various threads on the go at the moment are all a wonderful success, whether end-of-season indicates good correlation or not!
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 18:22
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-08-2018 20:41
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Oooh, just surviving! I'll take it! Interesting preview as always SN, will give it a closer look soon 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
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[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 15-08-2018 22:38
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Damn, we're relegating again!
Interesting preview, I do find that some teams who focus very specifically on a couple terrains (f.e. Iberia) or have a lot of depth but not big leaders (f.e. Generali) are punished for that but Indosat first is interesting and I suppose at the top you do need to be interested in more terrains so it make sense there.
btw, I'm a little confused by the sprinters ratings, is Granjel Cabrera really better than Vantomme? Even then having a weaker sprinter and a stronger leadout (that he's unlikely to use) is occasionally worth more than a stronger sprinter and a weaker lead-out.
Thanks for the preview!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 15-08-2018 23:02
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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trekbmc wrote:
btw, I'm a little confused by the sprinters ratings, is Granjel Cabrera really better than Vantomme? Even then having a weaker sprinter and a stronger leadout (that he's unlikely to use) is occasionally worth more than a stronger sprinter and a weaker lead-out.
Vantomme is better than Granjel Cabrera, but the addition of Keough/Andriato push Azteca ahead of you, when compared with Sobota/Franczak.
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