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Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 25-02-2018 12:42
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Directeur Sportif
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PCM$: 300.00
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 Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt
A race going into it's 10th edition, being part of the ManGame history since 2008. A tough race through the Alps, that has seen a lot of changes in the past nine years. It's been a ProTour event for two years (with Damiano Cunego and Andy Schleck winning the 2010 and 2009 editions), but has made it's name as one of the most prestigious mountain stage races in the PCT circus: the tour kicks off with a summit finish on the famous 'Kühtai' climb - 21km in total, 6.5% average slopes. The second day is even more challenging with the summit finish on the well known 'Kitzbüheler Horn' - 12km in total, 9% average slops (up to 13% at some points). The tour will have a third mountain stage featuring the 'Großglockner', even though it comes with a flat sector afterwards. A hilltop finish will add some spice and the concluding timetrial will be a showdown for the GC battle then.
With Janez Brajkovic (2015), there's a former race-winner at the start this year. Other previous winners are Thomas Dekker (2016), David Abal (2014), Maxim Iglinski (2013), Jose Alacorn (2012), Francisco Perez Sanchez (2011) and Bernhard Kohl (2008). The already mentioned Cunego and Schleck make for a truly illostrous honour roll here. There's no doubt, that someone like Amador, Denifl or Sicard would be in good company, if they write their name on that list this year. Let's have a look at the startlist and favorites:
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Favorites | MO | HI | TT | | Outsiders | MO | HI | TT |  Amador | 84 | 75 | 78 | |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 68 |  Denifl | 84 | 76 | 72 | |  Warbasse | 78 | 75 | 74 |  Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 | |  De la Cruz | 78 | 75 | 74 |  Henao Montoya | 82 | 71 | 71 | |  Stancu | 78 | 69 | 66 |  Shikai | 81 | 71 | 76 | | Chamorro | 78 | 75 | 64 |  Duarte | 80 | 68 | 75 | |  Potocki | 77 | 72 | 70 | | Ratiy | 80 | 70 | 74 | |  Poljanski | 77 | 77 | 67 | | Brajkovic | 79 | 74 | 76 | | Saggiorato | 77 | 73 | 66 |  Van den Broeck | 79 | 74 | 73 | |  Grmay | 77 | 74 | 65 |  Talansky | 79 | 77 | 72 | | Hiratsuka | 77 | 74 | 63 |  Roglic | 79 | 76 | 72 | | Maillet | 77 | 70 | 60 | | Contador | 79 | 73 | 71 | | Brändle | 76 | 71 | 79 | | Barguil | 79 | 75 | 70 | | Brandt | 76 | 69 | 73 |
Let's begin with the clear top-favorites: Amador has to stand out. The premium stage racer is the best climber and timetrialist amongst all GC contenders and he also adds good skills for the hilly stage (if it will be of any significance). He's been not disappointing his fans and manager so far this season and there's less reasons to believe, that he will start to disappoint here in Austria. Surely a big race for his Team UBS as well, as they would love to deliver in it's neighbour's country.
Speaking of Austria: Denifl as the next best climber and local favorite. Coming off a 5th place here in 2016, the climber certainly would prefer to fight for the podium at least. His weakness is well known (acceleration), but with two brutal summit finishes on the first days, his climbing skills should be of good use anyway.
And since we're talking about former achievements here: Denifl's 5th place definitely ain't the most notable past result from this year's participants. The already mentioned Brajkovic has a pretty outstanding history in this race (3rd last year, winner in 2015 and 4th in 2009!), with also two stage-wins in his pocket. The veteran is still amongst the GC contenders and would love to add another Top-5 result from here. Also Van den Broeck has a pretty good history with three GC's Top-5 and two stage-wins as well:
| Rider | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | | Brajkovic | 3rd | 1st* | | | | | | 4th* | | Denifl | 5th | | | | | | | | | Contador | 6th | 2nd* | | | | | | | | Shikai | 10th | | | | | | | | | Duarte | 14th | | | | 9th | | | | | Brändle | 17th | | | | | | | | | Talansky | 22nd | 11th | | | | | | | | Ratiy | 23rd | | | | 11th | | | | | Van den Broeck | | 4th | | | 5th* | 2nd* | | | | *indicates stage-win |
Also Contador did well in the previous two years, even though you may expect other climbers to be of more danger for the already mentioned top-favorites: Sicard definitely to be named first. He's combining the needed allround skills pretty extraordinary. Henao Montoya, Shikai, Duarte and Ratiy as the next best climbers then. Every one of them could be of potential danger for Amador, if they are on a very good day. Henao Montoya (and also Denifl) lack the TT skills though, they will need to gain time on the climbs.
The list of possible dark horses for a GC podium or at least Top-5 is pretty long here: the still dangerous Brajkovic, Van den Broeck and Contador have been mentioned already. But there's also Talansky, Roglic, Barguil, maybe Garby, Warbasse or Poljanski as second-tier climbers, who can do something of note here.
Local favorite Brändle will mainly aim for the timetrial, but he certainly has the skills to survive the climbs somewhere in the first groups. Let's assume, that he would like to improve his 17th place in the GC from last. Maybe hoping for a Top-15 then.
The Stage Hunters | Sprinters | HI | SP | AC | | TT specialists | MO | TT | | Guillén | 61 | 81 | 82 | | Ford | 52 | 81 | | Nelson | 60 | 81 | 81 | |  Paillot | 70 | 80 | | Lavoine | 60 | 80 | 78 | |  Sergent | 65 | 80 | | Serebriakov | 61 | 80 | 77 | | Van Winden | 53 | 80 | | Hayakawa | 64 | 79 | 79 | | Viviani | 60 | 79 | | Chen | 63 | 79 | 78 | | Kwok | 54 | 79 |  Peeters | 62 | 79 | 77 | |  Sterobo | 71 | 78 | | Ranneries | 56 | 78 | 82 | | Atkins | 54 | 78 | | Aregger | 71 | 78 | 77 | | Quaade | 54 | 78 | | Cisse | 63 | 78 | 77 | | Li | 53 | 78 | | Szalontay | 52 | 78 | 77 | | Ivars | 75 | 77 | | | | | | Rolland | 74 | 77 | | | | | | Pökälä | 64 | 77 |
Two possible sprinter's stages attracted a few fast men to sign up for the race: Guillén, Nelson, Lavoine and Serbriakov as the best sprinters here. At first, they will need to survive the mountains though. Possible dark horses would be Hayakawa, Chen, Peeters, Ranneries and Aregger (who may fancy his chances thanks to his solid climbing skills on short climbs).
For the concluding ITT, it's surely a tricky question: will the best GC riders outperform the pure TT specialists, that survived the race until then? It happened before. Anyway, we've also seen pure TT horses deliver in late timetrials:
Ford as the best against the clock, though amongst the worst stage racers as well! Paillot, Sergent, Van Winden and maybe Viviani and Kwok as serious threats as well. Stronger climbers like Paillot, Serobo, Ivars and Rolland will certainly like their chances to outperform guys like Ford here. Several more TT riders, who ain't much worse than those listed above. In the end, it may be Amador's stage to lose anyway.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 25-02-2018 12:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
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Breaks please.... Just hoping to get some points here really.
A huge race for Amador and UBS. He's been great so far, and I would be surprised if he doesn't win here again.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-02-2018 12:57
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Yes, this needs breakaways, and a lot of them. Or dare I dream of a Peeters stage win?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 25-02-2018 13:23
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
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As (judging by previous comments) everyone else I'm here mainly for breakaways.
A TT-win would be nice as well - at last Paillot should deal better with the climbs than the other specialists. Amador could be a problem though.
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| Selwink |
Posted on 25-02-2018 13:51
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
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3 riders who are capable of doing something here, provided Ford doesn't OTL. We need the points now
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 17:56
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 25-02-2018 14:54
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
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This is a top-5 goal for us after I made a mistake in planning (should have been a win goal). It is definitely a winnable race, although Sicard always scares me and I could see him having a very good chance to win as well. Can't wait, one of Amador's 5 races that count for points this year, so he better perform!
Edit: Nevermind, this is a win goal. Will be doable but hard!
Edited by Bushwackers on 25-02-2018 15:30
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-02-2018 16:01
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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One of those races where we sent both our climbers because they have nothing better to do. not expecting any points, but breakaways are always nice. And maybe Garby can start getting some legs for Tour of America.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 25-02-2018 16:45
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Team Leader
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Hoping Vdb's history in this race can prove that he's still capable of a good GC result here.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 25-02-2018 17:08
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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Talansky i hope can crack the Top10 GC. He's got a chance and is having that kind of season where it really could happen. That would put good points on the board for this race. Nelson i'd like to see at least contest the sprints even if he doesn't win. Basically just looking to gather a few more points and keep locking down our mid-table position.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 25-02-2018 22:41
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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Honestly, with the TT and MO combined, Shikai could sneak onto one of the lesser podium spots with any luck. Probably will more likely end up near the end of the Top 10.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 26-02-2018 07:33
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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The Top 4 are better, but 5th place should be doable. And given how slow the first two mountain stages are often raced here, maybe Brändle can hope for a Top 10 in his home race.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-02-2018 17:01
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
Joined: 11-09-2010
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Far, far behind, as expected.
Victory for Amador, as expected. Probably a favourite to win points, KoM and GC in this race - all set for the race to bump UBS back up in the promotion zone.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-02-2018 17:37
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Contador once again underperforms, but at least he wasn't in 70th this time. A pretty good stage for Garby though. He's certainly shown some decent legs recently after an abhorrent start to the season. Hopefully he can keep a top 15 throughout the race from here, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
Terrific report! Looking forward to the rest.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 26-02-2018 18:25
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8059
Joined: 22-06-2009
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*Simulate to the end of the tour*
Worst stage of the season for the boys. Hopefully, Warbasse isn't too dinged up. I need him ready to go for the Tour of America.
As for this tour, let's go breakaways. 
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 26-02-2018 19:32
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
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About as I expected then. Obviously was hoping for better but cant really call it an under performance or anything.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-02-2018 19:55
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Good ride from Senni, would be nice if we can keep a top 15.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Selwink |
Posted on 27-02-2018 10:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
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Great result for Duarte here, hopefully he can keep the podium for the rest of the race. Also Ford didn't OTL so that's good 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-02-2018 11:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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You know you fucked up when your leader finishes behind Ratiy and Garby. Terrible first stage for us. Comparing Brajkovic to van den Broeck this season really hurts.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 27-02-2018 12:29
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
Joined: 07-02-2009
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Great reporting so far tsmoha, the stages have been excellent! Nice to see Amador win yesterday, and defending his lead well today. Strong rides by Garby and Denifl in particular giving Amador a hard time today. Sicard not living up to expectations though.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-02-2018 12:36
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
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Juul, Appo and now Garby? Come on  we need to find bbl and his needles quick 
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
