The top of the promotion race sees three brand new teams. Balkan Cycling boasts arguably the top puncher and climber in the division and hope this along with a competitive sprint line-up can overcome their weakness on the cobbles. Aviva have gone for the tried and tested options, picking up riders having a history of doing well at this level. Add a couple more leaders to that, and this looks like a surefire recipe for success. Completing the trio is Wilier, who also picked up a premier puncher along with leaders for every terrain. Expect a close fight at the top.

Four teams sit on the edge of the promotion spots and will look to take advantage of any slip-ups. They are sure to go up with any disbandments, which, as much as we hate it, is a reality every year. Both Credit Suisse and CCC came within a whisker of disband promoting last year. They look to be in a better position this time and will be looking to push on towards direct promotion. Joining them in this fight is another seasoned ICL team, Wiggle, who themselves have consolidated well and are looking to finally promote. Vittel - Havas are the new kids on the block hoping that their team concentrating on depth can upset the established order.

The battle to get into the top 10 of the CT includes one improving team and another who seems to have lost some ground in the transfer season. The other two teams are newcomers and so it is difficult to set a benchmark for their performance. Pedal Africa struggled in the CT last season but look to have made some moves in the right direction in the off-season. Cymru Wales performed better than all the predictions indicated last season but seem to have fallen behind some of the new teams. If they get their planning right like last time, this prediction can very easily be proved wrong. With a couple of shrewd leader signings, Polestar looks to have cemented a place for themselves in the top half of the division, although a promotion push looks unlikely. Jeep did quite well to start off their ICL adventure but have gone AWOL since.

Mediocrity might not be the right word, but these teams will look towards over-performance from their riders to break the opinion of the predictions. Newly relegated Vegeta will be disappointed to find themselves so low down the prediction standings. Other than that, it's four new teams who didn't have the best luck in the transfer market.

The part of the table where everyone will already be hoping that this season ends soon so that they can look forward to improving their team in the off-season. These teams are looking at a long hard grind this season. This despite a couple of these teams having two of the best climbers in the division.

Although I did make a mathematical comparison, I don't intend to post that this time. Instead, this ranking is a mixture of the mathematical outcome and my gut-feeling.

The title fight this year should be between the four teams. CarbonSports were very close to claiming the win last year and come into this season as the favourites. Giving them a string challenge will be the ever-present Italo, along with Grupo Argos (erstwhile Leopard - Evonik) and Allianz - BMW. Besides the first, every other team has focused mainly on training their existing riders in search of glory this season. Let us take a look at how they match up.

The battle for the final top 5 spot will be interesting. Defending champion Bunzl seem to have lost some ground to the teams in the title fight. However, it should be remembered that they were predicted to barely finish in the top 5 last season, and they went on to win the title! Liberty Seguros (erstwhile Illes Balaeres) come away from the off-season with a change in sponsor and a change in direction. Long serving leader Alberto Contador is gone, while Carlos Betancur is his high-profile replacement. This is not like-for-like however. Up and comer Jesus Herrada is being tipped to take over the mantle from Contador as GT leader while the afore-mentioned Colombian becomes their elite puncher. Suntory Lucozade is another team that over-performed last season, mainly because of some smart planning by their manager. They have more of a head-start this season and could make a push for the top 5.

The battle to finish in the top half of the table will be fought out between four teams that are now well entrenched in the World Tour. All these teams finished in similar positions or a couple of positions lower last year and look to make small gains this time around.

Sugoi's lack of big scorers apart from Froome and Stybar will mean them playing catch up all season. The signing of Froome has surely saved them from what could've become a relegation scrap. Consequently, if Froome overperforms, they could be looking at an easy top 10 finish! VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff are the most stable promoted team and this should see them avoid the relegation battle this season. Their planning was excellent in their debut last year, and ensured direct promotion. No reason why they can't repeat that. Lufthansa went from having a horrendous off-season to taking advantage of another team's misfortune, which might just be the reason they avoid going straight back down to the CT. Their fortune will depend on results in the classics with a lot of the point-scoring responsibility on the shoulders of Degenkolb and Van Avermaet.

The area of the table no one wants to be in. Three newly promoted teams and the faltering Alitalia make up the relegation favourites for the WT this season. Santos - Euskadi was the other team who faltered with the transfer strategy and find themselves in trouble now. Ceramica concentrated on promoting home-boy Aru to super-stardom and perhaps neglected strengthening other areas. Sevilla were the lowest ranked team to promote and failed to strengthen at all. This does not bode well for their season.

Although I did make a mathematical comparison, I don't intend to post that this time. Instead, this ranking is a mixture of the mathematical outcome and my gut-feeling.

knockout wrote:
Can we get more previews from others - maybe with a different team at the top

jandal7 wrote:
Love the previews Abhishek, very cool overview of both divisions to read over. Can't agree with us beating anybody in the WT though

Albini is a neo-pro with oodles of potential. Not only that, he is already the best in one area: DHI 85! No other rider can match that. Sure, for now he'll struggle getting up a hill first, but if he ever gets the chance he could even best Nibali on a descent.

Any team would be happy to have Onofrei, a wonderful domestique, especially on the flat with some cobbles, part of a lead-out train with his FLA 75, COB 72, SPR and ACC 71.

Sbaragli is a mediocre sprinter with his SPR 75 and ACC 74, not exactly somebody other WT teams have to fear.

Like Albini, Spagnoli is only 22 years old and has the highest potential. Similar to but already better than Sbaragli, SPR/ACC 75, he might turn into a top sprinter in the future.

The first climber in the list, with his MON 74 he isn't much of a threat by himself. Mendes also offers TTR 72, so he is a man to bring to stage races with a team time trial.

Campenaerts is a clear time trialist, his TTR 76 is the best of all the riders in this particular ranking.

Abhishek has revealed that Bauhaus will be the sole Lufthansa sprinter at the Vuelta, he'll have to prove he's up to the task with his SPR 75, ACC 76.

Like Campenaerts a TT specialist, I'm not sure why his AVG is 0.3 points better, his TTR is only 74 and he'll struggle even more on hills and mountains. His SPR 69 isn't going to help him much.

Novikov is a solid climber, MON 75, HIL 73, hates cobbles. Worst thing to say about him is that he seems slightly overpaid, most of the riders in this ranking are on their minimum wage, but Novikov is paid 90 more.

The Frenchman boasts the highest REC by far in this ranking, REC 75. Does it actually make a difference in PCM? Nobody knows. A stage racer, but MON 74 and TTR 73 won't get him too far.

Kragh's SPR 75 may not be so thrilling, but he adds FLA and STA 75 and COB and HIL 72, which allows him to drop better sprinters on the right terrain.

A rider I'd love to have for my CT team, FLA 76, COB and STA 75, add the SPR 72 for a sprint from a small group as well as his age and potential, of course

Marc Geyer dominated the U23 back in the 2015 season and has scored solidly since, if I ranked these riders by prestige points earned Carbonsports would easily come out top. A good puncher with HIL 75 and all stats in the green, so a great allrounder.

COB, FLA and STA at 75, it's clear where Stuyven feels most comfortable, his HIL 73 is an added bonus.

I'd pick Geyer over Van der Lijke myself, even ignoring age and potential. The Dutchman also has HIL 75 and is a solid rider for sure, but Geyer's TTR 73 vs. Van der Lijke's 65 makes a clear difference.

Debusschere's AVG is only 0.1 points better than Stuyvens, they are similar riders except for the small fact that Debusschere adds an impressive SPR 77 into the mix. Me likey.

Sarmiento isn't getting any younger or better, but MON 76 and HIL 75 are strong arguments, he'd be team leader in the CT. Can't do much better with a wage of 310.

The clear winner is Italo-Ventilair with Ghyselinck, an AVG 75.9 as the 10th best rider in the squad is certainly impressive. I'm happy with Stannard, my 3rd best rider and clear COB leader, but Ghyselinck is even better.

jandal7 wrote:
PSF is really unfair on Albini, clearly trying to stop him winning