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Tour de Suisse Discussion
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| matt17br |
Posted on 24-11-2016 17:38
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 Tour de Suisse
10th edition for one of the most iconic PT’s stage races for complete climbers: the Tour de Suisse. Over the years the Swiss race, one of the longest in the entire MG calendar, has become increasingly prestigious, and rightly so, including names in the winners book such as  Andy Schleck, back to try to repeat his 2014 victory or at least add another podium to the 4 he achieved in this race, his brother Frank, Simon Spilak, Aleksandr Pluchkin and  Andrei Amador, back here after being the winner in 2013, and the runner-up the year after.
With 4 short mountain stages, the race is supposed to make room for spectacle since the very take off, giving the chance to riders to change the looks of the GC every single other day. Add in the mix a Team Time Trial and an Individual one, as well as a hilly stage that will be hard to interpret for teams and riders alike, and you have what it takes to provide a race that is hard to predict.
After an impressive showing of strength earlier in the season with a dominant Paris-Nice victory, as well as an overall perfect 2015, the World Champion Andy Schleck comes here as the top favorite, head and shoulders above the opposition, led by Amador and  Dombrowski. The former, leader of one of the 2 wild-card home teams, has not completely dominated the PCT calendar like some expected, but has certainly been the most consistent climber so far, while the latter has also been really consistent throughout the first half of the season.
Even though the 3 of them certainly come here with better chances than most, in the MG everything can happen, so let’s take a look at a complete list of favorites as well as the complete list of riders taking the start.
| Climber | MO | TTR | TTT | HIL | ACC | RES | | Schleck | 85 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 79 | 82 | | Amador | 84 | 78 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 74 | | Dombrowski | 84 | 71 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 78 |  Morton | 82 | 73 | 81 | 76 | 66 | 78 |  Guldhammer | 81 | 71 | 70 | 77 | 76 | 75 |  Van den Broeck | 80 | 74 | 60 | 75 | 69 | 73 |  Suaza | 80 | 73 | 72 | 65 | 79 | 76 |  Quintana | 80 | 71 | 68 | 74 | 65 | 76 |  König | 79 | 74 | 64 | 75 | 67 | 76 |  Galta | 79 | 71 | 70 | 72 | 61 | 77 |  Olivier | 79 | 69 | 71 | 75 | 71 | 80 |  Arndt | 79 | 56 | 68 | 76 | 75 | 76 |  Warbasse | 78 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 65 | 73 |  Diaz | 78 | 72 | 66 | 70 | 68 | 73 |  Karnulin | 78 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 70 | 75 |  Cataldo | 78 | 69 | 65 | 75 | 73 | 76 |  Stancu | 78 | 66 | 66 | 69 | 71 | 74 | | Aru | 78 | 64 | 72 | 74 | 70 | 75 | | Goos | 77 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 75 |  Kolesnikov | 77 | 72 | 81 | 72 | 77 | 74 |  Agudelo | 77 | 72 | 78 | 68 | 68 | 73 |  Vasyliv | 77 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 67 | 72 |  Kwiatkowski | 77 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 76 | | Schelling | 77 | 69 | 70 | 74 | 70 | 75 |
Schleck is a solid time trialist, even if he’s not among the very best, but this won’t matter a lot because of the absence of the likes of Madrazo, Pluchkin, Tenorio or even Vuelta winner Gesink. In the TTT that should matter more than the shorter TT, Vesuvio does have a good support cast – the complete TTT table will be shown below.
Amador and Dombrowski are also supported by good TTT teams and they’re decent time trialists themselves, especially the Costa Rican.
Another interesting contender for the podium is Morton, who while is not the most explosive of the climbers, has a dream TTT team behind him. Differently from Guldhammer, who’ll try to make up as much time as possible in the shorter mountain/hilly stages, lacking a top TTT team.
Also make sure to watch out for the likes of Van den Broeck, who however is held back by a pretty abysmal TTT support, Suaza, who will suffer in the shorter ascents but will likely work for his captain anyway, Quintana, König, Galta, Olivier, Warbasse, coming here with one of the better support casts, Kolesnikov, rider with no real weak points who will make up as much time as possible in the TTT, where his team comes as shared favorite.
| Sprinter | SPR | ACC | FLA | RES | HIL | | | Time Trialist | TTR | RES |  Van Stayen | 83 | 77 | 76 | 71 | 78 | | | Zmorka | 82 | 75 |  Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 77 | 71 | 65 | | | Durbridge | 81 | 74 | | Holloway | 80 | 82 | 78 | 77 | 69 | | | Vlatos | 81 | 71 | | Guardini | 80 | 82 | 72 | 69 | 64 | | | Kittel | 81 | 70 |  Keukeleire | 80 | 79 | 72 | 68 | 70 | | | Sütterlin | 80 | 77 | | Groenewegen | 80 | 79 | 71 | 69 | 65 | | | Dillier | 80 | 77 | | Meyer | 80 | 76 | 72 | 65 | 61 | | | Viennet | 80 | 75 |  Lay | 79 | 81 | 73 | 66 | 60 | | | Sergent | 80 | 74 | | Brus | 78 | 78 | 71 | 69 | 64 | | |  Howson | 80 | 74 | | Aregger | 78 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 71 | | | Hepburn | 79 | 77 | | Moser | 78 | 77 | 70 | 68 | 67 | | | Fraile | 79 | 76 |  Weylandt | 78 | 74 | 73 | 67 | 63 | | | Dempster | 79 | 74 | | Sbaragli | 77 | 78 | 76 | 70 | 66 | | | Malori | 79 | 73 | | Kreder | 77 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 75 | | |  Koren | 78 | 75 | | Dakteris | 77 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 64 | | | Jungels | 78 | 75 |
Concerning stage hunters, we can notice that the field is surprisingly full of stars. Sprinters-wise, the names of Van Stayen and Kennaugh stand out. The former is the very favorite for the green jersey, thanks to his superior punching skills, while the latter relies on one of the highest top speeds in the peloton.
Holloway, however, possibly comes here with the best sprint train to help him out in the final meters of a stage, that we’ve seen matters more and more as cycling evolves.
The likes of Guardini, Keukeleire and Groenewegen, more than others, have the skills to bag stage wins and have proven so earlier in the season, either getting very close or doing so outright.
Worth mentioning that Aregger and Kreder, besides obviously MVS, do have very good hilly skills which will help in both the easy hilly stage and in stage 1, which features 2 steep speed bumps near the finish line.
On the other hand, there are a lot more time trialists that can contend the stage win in the shorter TT, as well as helping out their captains, that is. Zmorka is probably the top favorite consistency-wise, but Durbridge, Vlatos, Kittel, Sütterlin, Dillier, Viennet and many others on a good day could just prove to be better than the rest.
| TTT Team | AVG | TTR | FLA | RES | TTT Team | AVG | TTR | FLA | RES | | Tinkoff | 81 | 224 | 147 | 110 | Aker | 70 | 212 | 140 | 110 | | Jayco'z | 81 | 229 | 143 | 108 | Orange | 68 | 210 | 141 | 107 | | Grieg | 80 | 227 | 144 | 107 | Puma | 68 | 207 | 144 | 108 | | Gazelle | 78 | 222 | 144 | 110 | eBuddy | 66 | 207 | 141 | 107 | | Movistar | 76 | 224 | 139 | 109 | Red Bull | 66 | 204 | 143 | 107 | | Metinvest | 74 | 217 | 143 | 109 |  RBC | 66 | 208 | 139 | 107 | | Kenya Airways | 73 | 219 | 144 | 106 | Vontobel | 65 | 208 | 140 | 105 | | I-Gen | 73 | 219 | 142 | 107 | Becherovka | 64 | 204 | 140 | 107 | | Vesuvio | 72 | 216 | 139 | 111 | Evonik | 63 | 197 | 146 | 107 | | Pendleton's | 72 | 215 | 141 | 109 | Pokerstars.com | 62 | 198 | 146 | 102 | | Aegon | 71 | 212 | 143 | 108 | Bouygues | 60 | 197 | 136 | 106 | | UBS | 70 | 216 | 138 | 108 | Bpost | 60 | 193 | 140 | 105 |
The teams that will contend this are pretty clear: there aren’t many strength differences between Tinkoff, Jayco'z and Grieg. Gazelle and Movistar might put up some fight for the podium, but it will take a solid overperformance for them to challenge the top spot – which has obviously happened in the past, and Movistar’s manager knows what I’m talking about, as it’s thanks to exactly a TTT that they’re still in PT this year!
Talking about the GC aspect, it’s likely we’ll see a few teams losing terrain heavily, and Bpost, led by Van den Broeck, is the perfect example of this, but the same will likely happen to Becherovka and König, as well as a few other teams.
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| Ad Bot |
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| roturn |
Posted on 24-11-2016 17:42
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Nice overview. In especially the TTT one.
Small hopes for a top10 here but I guess top15 is more realistic.
Groenewegen maybe a podium on one stage and consistent top7.
Not sure how important the TTT will become for the GC fight as the mountain stages might not be that hard. Hence Schleck could struggle here to win.
Hopefully Morton has good days in the mountains for tsmoha to give him some well needed success after the latest 2 GTs. Then a strong TTT and he could suddenly attack the podium. |
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| Roman |
Posted on 24-11-2016 17:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Nice preview!
Quite surprisingly not the strongest lineup we could expect in PT. König may actually have a chance for top 10 overall and that would be a massive result after such a bad season he has so far. It is going to be really hard form him as my TTT squad really misses quality after my decision to sell all my good time trialists. 
König probably my only hope here though. Can't expect much from Vakoc, Cink or Danacik.
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| ember |
Posted on 24-11-2016 17:57
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Slightly surprised and admittedly relieved to see the race lack most of the 81+ climbers. That should make a top 5 a very realistic goal for Guldhammer, eventhough we don't have a great TT team to back him up. It probably comes down to the final two stages nevertheless, where it's all about avoiding bad daily form, and the top 5 should be doable.
Also interesting to see Galta fairly high up considering the climbers here, meaning I can maybe hope for a little something from him as well, if he survives the hills that is.
Schleck is the obvious favourite, and we could be in for a rather unusual podium here with both Morton and Dombrowski being serious contenders. Looking forward to the race, and thank you for an informative preview, matt17br! |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 24-11-2016 18:05
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Winning the Vuelta the way Gesink did has a down side too. It's very hard to get excited about other races now.
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| SotD |
Posted on 24-11-2016 18:43
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We should have definately split our sprinters here instead of letting both ride Dauphine. Either would have been a top 3 favorite for two stages, like Vlatos is.
Looking forward to see what Vasyliv will do when he is finally the sole captain of a race. Top 20 should be the goal. But boy oh boy how Vesuvio will rip this race apart. They are likely to win 3-4 stages, the GC, the KOM, the points and get another 3 riders in the top 15-20. They are even likely to catch up with us from this race alone.
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| knockout |
Posted on 24-11-2016 20:15
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The sprinter field looks to good to be true. Awesome opportunity for Van Stayen to add some further points and wins to his season. Not sure why i didnt brought Dzamastagic here as that decision might hurt me a lot.
For the GC I'm cheering for Amador. It's cool to see his team getting a wildcard for their home race. Big favourite must be Schleck.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-11-2016 21:04
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I'm only here for the time trials. Not hoping for much, but would be great to see a stage podium and some breaks on the road stages.
Guessing at least two stage wins for Evonik, just how long can they keep it up?
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 24-11-2016 22:04
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Well this is very likely to go badly with only Boily likely to go well in GC this is going to be a breakaway Tour hopefully |
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 25-11-2016 04:09
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I've been looking forward to this all season! There's a weak enough field that Amador should definitely be able to podium, but he's never going to beat Schleck for the win. Hopefully there will be a good fight. Thanks for the preview and the race.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 25-11-2016 07:10
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Great preview and mid- quality startlist where we can hopefully do something interesting.
Zmorka again one of the top favoutites for TT, so he could actually podium it this time please?
Guardini is a top 5 candidate for two flat stages, looking forward to what he can do against some weaker opposition and Van Beasten.
GC wise, we have young gun Karnulin, i hope for a top15 fight, should be nice race to follow. 
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| SotD |
Posted on 25-11-2016 07:11
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How is that AVG for the TTT calculated btw?
Jayco'z 81AVG, while they only have two riders of 81TT in their team. If I calculate their setup it's 611/8 = 76,38, and if I pick the 5 strongest it's 390/5 = 78.
It's still very high, but not as high as you make it at. My team of 5 is 76,8 fx.
Tinkoff is 74,5 with 8 riders and 76,4 with 5 riders.
I wonder how Stepniak can do as my main sprinter, and if he decides to sprint at all. He is relatively decent in the bumpy stuff, although no way near the strongest. But if he could get a single top 10 here it would be nice to show for the loaning out team
Also, Bernaudeau must be around 15-20th in terms of pure TTists with 78TT, so I can only hope that he will be battling for a top 10 spot while Vlatos takes a podium - If he doesn't this race will be catastrophic for us, given that we have expected to claim somewhere in the region of 120-150 points from this race.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 25-11-2016 07:18
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SotD wrote:
How is that AVG for the TTT calculated btw?
Jayco'z 81AVG, while they only have two riders of 81TT in their team. If I calculate their setup it's 611/8 = 76,38, and if I pick the 5 strongest it's 390/5 = 78.
It's still very high, but not as high as you make it at. My team of 5 is 76,8 fx.
And Metinvest top 5 is 78,2 
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 25-11-2016 07:24
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Btw. Tinkoff has best TTist Malori at 79TT, so i am also quite baffled with their "AVG" TT listed as 81. 
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 25-11-2016 08:12
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Didn't realise this was going to be such an opportunity for Dombrowski, I might have sent him with more team-mates...
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| matt17br |
Posted on 25-11-2016 08:36
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I raised the AVG artificially to make it match with the other stats in order to use it in the climbers table.
The formula was I think [(TTsum*3/8)+(FLAsum*2/8)+(RESsum*1,5/8)]/3, the max number however was more or less 74 so I just raised it to make it look better.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 25-11-2016 17:37
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Is Kreder sprinting 
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| ember |
Posted on 25-11-2016 17:52
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Coming through the stage safe was all that mattered. Thank you for the report, matt17br, and congratulations to CrueTrue. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 25-11-2016 18:39
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Good effort from Hofer here - He should be leading the U25 competition - Why isn't he?
He is younger than Piter Campero who is always contesting the U25, and was 5th in the U25 competition in the Giro d'Italia:
https://pcmdaily.c...d_id=46090
Too bad Hofer wasn't able to win the sprints and the KOM as Vandewalle scored well from that first stage. The sprint being uncontested from us. Too bad Stepniak isn't trying.
I see Bernaudeau losing quite some time here. Hopefully that was just him being badly positioned and not a crash. I really don't need a 78TT rider injured.
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| Roman |
Posted on 25-11-2016 19:05
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Nice to see Dan Eaton trying something for the first time in his young MG career. Welcome in the big cycling world young fella! Not bad to see him 5th overall, won't last for too long though.
Congrats to United Colours of Orange!
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