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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:36
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I've drawn up a formula based vaguely off the OVL calculations to try to form an analytical assesment of team strength. It considers the Top 3 riders from each team in each main type of rider specialisation, and uses that to compare between teams and ultimately come up with some form of ranking.
It's not perfect, and there are some parts I disagree with, but I tested it on last year's PT and it wasn't a million miles away, so should make for an interesting comparison with the more subjective predictions!
And to add to the differences from other previews, I'll go through it specialisation by specialisation.
Puncheur
| 1 |  Team Vontobel | : | Di Maggio | Wyss | Cataldo | | 2 |  Team Puma - SAP | : | Kelderman | Felline | Vogt | | 3 |  Bank of Ireland | : | McCarthy | Puusepp | Shaw | | 4 |  Team Kenya Airways | : | Ben Nasser | Kwiatkwoski | Chaoufi | | 5 |  Prio - Porto | : | Costa | Machado | Afonso | | 6 |  Gazelle | : | Monfort | Pozzato | Kangert | | 7 |  RBC Pro Cycling | : | Bellis | Boily | Anderson | | 8 |  Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Dowsett | Teklit | Bibby | | 9 |  Risa - Ergon | : | Levarlet | Meyer | Juul-Jensen | | 10 |  Team TomTom | : | van der Hugenhaben | Vermeltfoort | Schoonbroodt |
Hills were a key focus for Vontobel in CT last season and by signing the PCT star that is Di Maggio, it can continue to be a key area for them. The ever-developing Puma rank 2nd, while the astute signing of McCarthy places Bank of Ireland in 3rd. Gazelle are surely the team with the biggest depth and so may well turn out to be comfortably one of the Top 5 scoring teams on the terrain.
Spoiler | 11 | Evonik - ELKO | | 12 | Grupo Nutresa | | 13 | Buff - Polska | | 14 | AMEX-Navigon | | 15 | Project: Africa | | 16 | Bonsucro | | 17 | Karcher-Adira | | 18 | Team Bpost | | 19 | Swedbank-PEAB | | 20 | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 21 | ONCE-Eroski | | 22 | Sauber Petronas | | 23 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 24 | Aegon - Lavazza | | 25 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 26 | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | | 27 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | | 28 | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | | 29 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | | 30 | Azteca - NBCSN |
Stage Races
| 1 | Prio - Porto | : | Machado | Reis | Oliveira | | 2 |  ONCE-Eroski | : | Brajkovic | Anton | Ablenado | | 3 |  Aegon - Lavazza | : | Keizer | Olivier | Aru | | 4 | RBC Pro Cycling | : | Intxausti | Boily | Reus | | 5 |  Bonsucro | : | Contador | Iglinski | Nicacio | | 6 |  Buff - Polska | : | Abal | Nazaret | Gonzalo | | 7 |  Team Bpost | : | Van den Broeck | De Clerq | Curfs | | 8 |  Siam Cement - Lenovo | : | Kiserlovski | Sella | Rodrigues | | 9 |  Children of Chernobyl | : | Nepomnyachsniy | Krasnoperov | Popovych | | 10 | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Bibby | Teklehaimanot | Berhane |
Clearly the presence of Machado in PCT cannot go unnoticed and he will be tough to beat wherever he rides. Brajkovic won the PCT standings last year and should not be underestimated as he heads ONCE's charge, while Aegon are boosted by the time trialing abilities of Keizer - and his newly trained mountain skills. Intxausti should also be one of the top stage racers in the division, but RBC will be less threatening when he is absent.
Spoiler | 11 | Project: Africa | | 12 | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | | 13 | Grupo Nutresa | | 14 | Team Puma - SAP | | 15 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 16 | Swedbank-PEAB | | 17 | Bank of Ireland | | 18 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 19 | Gazelle | | 20 | Team TomTom | | 21 | Team Kenya Airways | | 22 | Team Vontobel | | 23 | Evonik - ELKO | | 24 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 25 | Sauber Petronas | | 26 | Karcher-Adira | | 27 | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | | 28 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | | 29 | Risa - Ergon | | 30 | AMEX-Navigon |
Sprinter
| 1 | Team Puma - SAP | : | Ciolek | Demare | Bar | | 2 |  Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | : | Cavendish | Cimolai | Opie | | 3 | Team TomTom | : | Vantomme | Kreder | Vingerling | | 4 |  Swedbank-PEAB | : | Ahlstrand | Reimer | Kvist | | 5 |  Evonik - ELKO | : | Boonen | Wagner | Geschke | | 6 |  Lululemon/Bulgaria | : | Nelson | Vanoverschelde | Soupe | | 7 |  Karcher-Adira | : | Kupfernagel | Haussler | Silvestre | | 8 | Team Bpost | : | Stallaert | Keukeleire | Boeckmans | | 9 | Team Kenya Airways | : | Impey | Marcato | Lang | | 10 | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Van Heerden | Van der Sande | Ayoune |
Ciolek is top dog in the PCT sprinting world and will have good support from Demare - one of the strongest sprinters on the hills this year (Impey being the strongest). Cavendish is the big hope for Eddie Stobart this year, while TomTom could be candidates for one of the strongest leadout trains.
Spoiler | 11 | Prio - Porto | | 12 | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | | 13 | Aegon - Lavazza | | 14 | Bonsucro | | 15 | AMEX-Navigon | | 16 | Bank of Ireland | | 17 | Project: Africa | | 18 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | | 19 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 20 | Gazelle | | 21 | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 22 | Risa - Ergon | | 23 | ONCE-Eroski | | 24 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 25 | Team Vontobel | | 26 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 27 | RBC Pro Cycling | | 28 | Grupo Nutresa | | 29 | Sauber Petronas | | 30 | Buff - Polska |
Time Trials
| 1 | Karcher-Adira | : | Fiedler | Balloni | Barth | | 2 | Aegon - Lavazza | : | Keizer | Boom | Schädlich | | 3 | Team Bpost | : | Cornu | Van den Broeck | Vandousselaere | | 4 | RBC Pro Cycling | : | Reus | Kreuziger | Intxausti | | 5 | Gazelle | : | Koren | Kangert | Gretsch | | 6 | Team Kenya Airways | : | Bookwalter | Bodnar | Petrus | | 7 | Prio - Porto | : | Oliveira | Costa | Machado | | 8 | ONCE-Eroski | : | Brajkovic | Gonzalez Salas | Erviti | | 9 | Risa - Ergon | : | Dempster | Steensen | Christensen | | 10 | Team TomTom | : | Van Winden | Elijzen | Beukeboom |
TTTs are a great source of points in this division, just ask Oz! Karcher and Aegon look set to be two of the strongest challengers in that department here. You do need strength down to at least the 5th rider though, and RBC are looking particularly strong on that front.
Spoiler | 11 | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 12 | Project: Africa | | 13 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 14 | Swedbank-PEAB | | 15 | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 16 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | | 17 | Bank of Ireland | | 18 | Buff - Polska | | 19 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 20 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | | 21 | Sauber Petronas | | 22 | Bonsucro | | 23 | Grupo Nutresa | | 24 | Team Vontobel | | 25 | Evonik - ELKO | | 26 | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | | 27 | Team Puma - SAP | | 28 | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | | 29 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 30 | AMEX-Navigon |
Northern Classics
| 1 | Team Bpost | : | Vanspeybrouck | Albert | Stallaert | | 2 |  AMEX-Navigon | : | Baugnies | Breschel | De Haes | | 3 |  Azteca - NBCSN | : | Summerhill | Coronel | Farrar | | 4 | Evonik - ELKO | : | Boonen | Flaksis | Ingels | | 5 | Aegon - Lavazza | : | Vanmarcke | Boom | Nooytens | | 6 | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | : | Thomas | Grashev | Sparling | | 7 | Team TomTom | : | Maes | Verbist | Schoonbroodt | | 8 | Gazelle | : | Veelers | Nuyens | Pozzato | | 9 | Risa - Ergon | : | Trentin | Steurs | Juul-Jensen | | 10 | Team Puma - SAP | : | Daniel | Declerq | Weber |
It wouldn't be right if Bpost were anything other than the top cobbled team while in PCT and this remains the case this season, despite the new signings from the two American squads. While Bpost have strength elsewhere, Baugnies and Summerhill are likely to really feel the pressure of their team's hopes. Boonen will be a very interesting rider to watch, in his first season away from PT.
Spoiler | 11 | Grupo Nutresa | | 12 | Buff - Polska | | 13 | Prio - Porto | | 14 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 15 | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 16 | Sauber Petronas | | 17 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | | 18 | Team Vontobel | | 19 | Team Kenya Airways | | 20 | Bonsucro | | 21 | RBC Pro Cycling | | 22 | Karcher-Adira | | 23 | Bank of Ireland | | 24 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | | 25 | Swedbank-PEAB | | 26 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 27 | Project: Africa | | 28 | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 29 | ONCE-Eroski | | 30 | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo |
Climber
| 1 | Prio - Porto | : | Machado | Reis | Vinhas | | 2 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | : | Sella | Kiserlovski | Rodrigues | | 3 | ONCE-Eroski | : | Brajkovic | Anton | Pantano Gómez | | 4 | Buff - Polska | : | Abal | Nazaret | Gonzalo | | 5 |  Mobil - Aeropostal | : | Rujano | Moschella | Pedraza | | 6 | Bonsucro | : | Contador | Iglinski | Diniz | | 7 | Aegon - Lavazza | : | Keizer | Aru | Olivier | | 8 | RBC Pro Cycling | : | Intxausti | Boily | Morizot | | 9 |  Project: Africa | : | Eastman | Bennett | Stetina | | 10 | Bank of Ireland | : | Marquez | Gomez Marchante | Serrano |
Of all the specialisations, I see this one as the least significant in PCT, but it is interesting to see the differences with this and stage racing - Siam Cement and Mobil stand out as much higher up on this one.
Spoiler | 11 | Team Bpost | | 12 | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 13 | Team Puma - SAP | | 14 | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 15 | Euskaltel-Air France | | 16 | Grupo Nutresa | | 17 | Team Kenya Airways | | 18 | Team Vontobel | | 19 | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | | 20 | Swedbank-PEAB | | 21 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 22 | Team TomTom | | 23 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | | 24 | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 25 | Evonik - ELKO | | 26 | Sauber Petronas | | 27 | Karcher-Adira | | 28 | Gazelle | | 29 | Risa - Ergon | | 30 | AMEX-Navigon |
Edited by SportingNonsense on 02-06-2015 13:19
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:36
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And from all of that, I offer up two predictions on the standings for PCT.
The first very basically sums the specialisation ranks for each team, with the lowest total receiving the highest ranking. Although the worst rank from Sprint, TT, Northern Classics and Climber is taken away, as generally PCT teams are able to avoid their weakest discipline.
This prediction rewards the teams who have scoring options in multiple terrains, which does tend to be crucial for teams aiming for a high finish. Teams lower down are those who compared to the competition just don't seem to have the riders that they can rely upon to score points.
| | Team | Score | | 1 | | Prio - Porto | 25 | | 2 | | Team Bpost | 36 | | 3 | | Team Puma - SAP | 40 | | 4 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 41 | | 5 | | RBC Pro Cycling | 44 | | 6 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | 49 | | 7 | | Team TomTom | 50 | | 8 | | Buff - Polska | 53 | | 9 | | Gazelle | 57 | | 10 | | ONCE-Eroski | 58 | | 11 | | Bonsucro | 61 | | 12 | | Team Kenya Airways | 61 | | 13 | | Bank of Ireland | 62 | | 14 | | Project: Africa | 64 | | 15 | | Karcher-Adira | 71 | | 16 | | Siam Cement - Lenovo | 72 | | 17 | | Evonik - ELKO | 72 | | 18 | | Swedbank-PEAB | 73 | | 19 |  | Grupo Nutresa | 75 | | 20 | | Children of Chernobyl | 78 | | 21 | | Risa - Ergon | 79 | | 22 | | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | 83 | | 23 | | Team Vontobel | 83 | | 24 | | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | 84 | | 25 |  | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | 92 | | 26 | | AMEX-Navigon | 92 | | 27 |  | Euskaltel-Air France | 95 | | 28 | | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | 98 | | 29 | | Azteca - NBCSN | 100 | | 30 |  | Sauber Petronas | 110 |
My second predicted standings involves more formulas which takes the actual strength of teams in each area, not just the arbitrary rank position. Not much changes at the very top with Prio and Bpost standing out as lead contenders, but it does show some differences towards the bottom end of the table. There's also less important placed on the Climber rank here - hence the drop of Mobil to the relegation positions.
| 1 | | Prio - Porto | | 2 | | Team Bpost | | 3 | | Aegon - Lavazza | | 4 | | Team Puma - SAP | | 5 | | RBC Pro Cycling | | 6 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 7 | | ONCE-Eroski | | 8 | | Team TomTom | | 9 | | Evonik - ELKO | | 10 | | Team Kenya Airways | | 11 | | Gazelle | | 12 | | Karcher-Adira | | 13 | | Project: Africa | | 14 | | Buff - Polska | | 15 | | Bonsucro | | 16 | | Bank of Ireland | | 17 | | Swedbank-PEAB | | 18 | | Grupo Nutresa | | 19 | | Children of Chernobyl Foundation p/b Nemiroff | | 20 | | Lululemon/Bulgaria Blackfish | | 21 | | AMEX-Navigon | | 22 | | Team Vontobel | | 23 | | Azteca - NBCSN | | 24 | | Siam Cement - Lenovo | | 25 | | Risa - Ergon | | 26 | | Euskaltel-Air France | | 27 | | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 28 | | Mobil - Aeropostal Ciclismo | | 29 | | Sauber Petronas | | 30 | | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling |
Edited by SportingNonsense on 01-06-2015 22:41
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:48
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Some very interesting rankings here, especially the terrain ones. Happy to be 4th in the hills, and I'd take 10th at the end of the year. Of that final ranking, ONCE really jump out at me as very high, as well as a few strange predictions. Will be interesting to see if how this compares to actual previews and the final standings.
Lots of great previews which are cheering me up a bit after a bad day at the cricket.  |
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:54
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Wow this one really puts the pressure on a top 5 is where we are aiming for so I guess this is a good sign |
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:57
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Woah.
Yeah we're not gonna live up to that.
Interesting way to predict though!
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 01-06-2015 22:58
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I like that last ranking! It has me avoiding relegation!
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 01-06-2015 23:00
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Guess who my favorite site member is now 20th might be a stretch but at least someone came to the conclusion that relegation is a certainty
Really nice way to looking at things. I initially had a similar sort of idea going but couldn't find the right way to do it. You nailed the comparisions on the head and in a visually very pleasing manner. My favorite preview thus far (sorry Smowz)!
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| fintas |
Posted on 01-06-2015 23:42
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WOW
Can we take this prediction for the final classification ?? I think these two predictions are too optimistic about my team..
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 01-06-2015 23:48
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Eddie Stobart are looking forward to the fight  |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 20:01
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| CountArach |
Posted on 02-06-2015 00:16
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Really interesting analysis SN. Prio are a great team but I wonder if the fact that Machado is their top rider in several different categories might mean that he is slightly overvalued. After all his race days will only go so far.
RBC are also a great team with depth and it is good to see that reflected.
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| aidanvn13 |
Posted on 02-06-2015 06:05
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Very, very interesting preview. I absolutely love the fact that you've found a way to quantify the teams' strength and generate a prediction based on that. Provides a very different approach.
Glad to see another prediction slotting us into the top 15. I hope that we'll live up to this.
Spoiler From next year I'll be starting my BSc in mathematics, with ultimate aim of becoming a quantitative analyst. (Basically a guy who writes algorithms for share prices and develops programs to trade these shares). Soon enough I'll be able to join the mathematical analysis of MG. 
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 02-06-2015 06:22
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Interesting reading! I hope the formula will be appied on the other divisions as well.
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| ggDonovan |
Posted on 02-06-2015 12:45
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Nice system 
I prefer the first accumulated than the second to be honest
everybody is giving us a confortable top10-15 which is what we were trying to archieve this year
also, I don't know if this will have an impact on the numbers but I found a mistake, the teams are switched
Stage Races
| 5 | Bonsucro | : | Abal | Nazaret | Gonzalo | | 6 | Buff - Polska | : | Contador | Iglinski | Nicacio |
Edited by ggDonovan on 02-06-2015 12:51
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 02-06-2015 13:35
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Nice.
What an interesting perspective. Very different from the rest of the previews, yet so informative.
The race planning isn't considered here and that is an important bias though. Machado for instance won't be racing much in hilly terrain, despite being our 2nd best puncheur, as well as Bibby who won't be simultaneously useful in hills and mountains+TT. Some stat combos, like MO+TT or HIL+SPR, will definitely have an impact, so there's that as well.
But I'll just stop nagging now This is a tremendous source of insight into the division's strengths and weaknesses, and a very unique one in fact. Wonderful effort SN, thanks for this. I'm hopeful your semi-mathemathical skills are trustworthy
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 02-06-2015 21:17
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Very interesting! Really cool to have this and compare it to the more subjective previews.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
