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Tour of South China Sea Discussion
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Posted on 22-11-2024 08:01
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:12
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To Hong Kong we go for the first C1 race of February, the Tour of South China Sea. It's flat rated and should be decided in a sprint, but that is only half the story. The tricky Tsing Yi island circuit plays a prominent part throughout the race and will make it tough for the weak climbing sprinters to do well here. There is certainly an opportunity for making the race tough, if some teams so wish.
Last Year
A prime example that a sprint finish with all the top sprinters cannot be expected. A group of attackers went away with just 10km to go, and joined the break of the day in a large group of 9. Those 9 stayed away comfortably. 3 of the day's break ended up in the Top 4, but the winner was Tomas Vaitkus.
This Year
23 teams line up in quite a popular race: 17 PCT and 6 CT. The top sprinters, and their hill stats, are:
| Ciolek | Gerald | GER | Team Puma - SAP | PCT | 66 | 83 | | Vantomme | Maxime | BEL | Quickstep | PCT | 64 | 82 | | Napolitano | Danilo | ITA | Meiji - Cannondale | PCT | 66 | 82 | | Van Stayen | Michael | BEL | Venchi - Ferranti | PCT | 76 | 81 | | Kupfernagel | Danilo | GER | Karcher-Adira Racing | PCT | 62 | 80 | | Holloway | Dan | USA | Heineken-Cal Giant | PCT | 69 | 80 | | Castañeda | Jaime Alberto | COL | Allianz-BMW | PCT | 59 | 80 | | Richeze | Maximiliano | ARG | Allianz-BMW | PCT | 66 | 80 | | Forero | Juan Pablo | COL | Alpina - Avianca | CT | 61 | 80 | | Drapac | Damion | AUS | Bank of Ireland - Irish Cycling | CT | 53 | 80 | | Van Avermaet | Greg | BEL | Venchi - Ferranti | PCT | 66 | 80 | | Serebriakov | Aleksandr | RUS | Ameriabank-Novatek | CT | 61 | 80 | | Aberasturi | Jon | ESP | Bacardi - Itera | PCT | 64 | 79 | | Docker | Mitch | AUS | RBC Pro Cycling | PCT | 68 | 79 | | Nelson | Ricki | AUS | Compal-Merida | PCT | 59 | 79 | | Awang | Azizulhasni | MAS | Sauber Petronas | CT | 52 | 79 | | Hochmann | JÃri | CZE | Ameriabank-Novatek | CT | 54 | 79 | | Vanderaerden | Michael | BEL | Fletcher-Garneau | CT | 61 | 79 | | Ahlstrand | Jonas | SWD | Swedbank-PEAB | PCT | 65 | 78 | | Kreder | Michel | NED | Swedbank-PEAB | PCT | 70 | 78 | | Hoffman | Nolan | RSA | Metinvest-Emirates | PCT | 68 | 78 | | Manan | Anuar | MAS | Compal-Merida | PCT | 60 | 78 | | Gavazzi | Francesco | ITA | Team Hornbach | PCT | 73 | 78 | | Corti | Marco | ITA | Venchi - Ferranti | PCT | 63 | 78 | | Keough | Jake | USA | AMEXpc | PCT | 64 | 78 | | Haidar Anuawar | Ahmad | MAS | Compal-Merida | PCT | 56 | 78 | | Park | Sung Baek | KOR | Compal-Merida | PCT | 63 | 78 |
Certainly  Van Stayen has to be favourite, based on his stats and performances at the Tour Down Under.  Ciolek,  Vantomme and  Napolitano would fancy beating him in an out and out sprint though, if they get over the hills ok.  Kupfernagel won the Down Under Classic of course - but he is less suited to this route, and 62 hill seems a bit low to actually win again here.
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:13
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February races already? 
I imagine the January rankings will be posted before the report though. Is this correct SN? |
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| welker3257 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:14
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I think a top 10 is an achievable result for Fletcher, but I think the break will take this one.
Gig 'em Aggies
Fast N' Loud Cycling Project - ICL
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:17
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welker3257 wrote:
I think a top 10 is an achievable result for Fletcher, but I think the break will take this one.
There's 12 80+ sprinters here, I'd be happy with Vantomme getting Top 10
Could go to break indeed, who knows. Should be a great race. No big expectations as the course is bit unexpected for sure.
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:17
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Miguel98 wrote:
February races already?
I imagine the January rankings will be posted before the report though. Is this correct SN?
Maybe, but it doesn't need to be. I'm yet to do the Tachira rankings, and they will be done tomorrow at the earliest when I get the files from tsmoha.
Looking forward to watching this from a neutral perspective. Think Van Staeyen is the definite winner of a bunch sprint if the hills are ridden fast but an attack could win again. |
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:18
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Hoping for a top 10 here, although 61 hill might count against Forero 
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:18
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Giacoppo for the win!
Well, seriously. No Goss here for me, so I'll hope for a similar race like last year, with Giovanni Visconti and William Ford grabbing the same result  Otherwise, maybe Sulzgberger could do something.. not expecting special things, so quite comfortably following this sprinters-battle.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:19
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FroomeDog99 wrote:
Miguel98 wrote:
February races already?
I imagine the January rankings will be posted before the report though. Is this correct SN?
Maybe, but it doesn't need to be. I'm yet to do the Tachira rankings, and they will be done tomorrow at the earliest when I get the files from tsmoha.
Opposing to my initial plan to visit a concert today, I'm at home  So I will send you the files soon!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:21
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Good to see few top sprinters here, bad to see Van Stayen here of course.
Very expectedly so though, this is really an interesting profile and a slight gamble for Ciolek (not that there was a significantly better alternative).
I should've tried and fit Delage in our lineup in case Ciolek has a bad day and not everyone waits for him, but now it's all for him trying to keep the pace steady over the hills, and Bar, Giaux and Minard should be some of the leadouts better suited to the course in that case.
This might well be the race where the 725k spent on Ciolek's hill stat could be the most effective...
Of course there's the evident threat of a break surviving especially with recent NZCC experiences and other results, but I am optimistic and say a Top 5 is a must.
Edited by cio93 on 21-04-2014 21:23
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:26
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Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:29
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Wouldn't be surprised to see the Van Stayen monster take another win.
I hope for Nuyens to attack.
Edited by DubbelDekker on 21-04-2014 21:29
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| jph27 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:32
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Was going to come with Haussler but last season's experience scared me off. Should be easy for Van Stayen. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:38
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Miguel98 wrote:
February races already?
I imagine the January rankings will be posted before the report though. Is this correct SN?
Well, I am posting this tomorrow evening.
Whether January Rankings come first depends on me getting the stage race points info from reporters, and also me having any time to do the rankings update. I don't see it as vital that the update comes before racing for the next month begins - many times last season it did not.
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| fintas |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:41
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Van Staeyen for the win and Kupfernagel for a top10 is what I think will happen
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| cio93 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:43
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I don't see why it has to be strictly chronological either as well.
Rankings updates require interaction between reporters and SN as every reporter does his own calculations and SN compiles and adds them together, so it can't always be completely simultaneously.
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:48
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SportingNonsense wrote:
Miguel98 wrote:
February races already?
I imagine the January rankings will be posted before the report though. Is this correct SN?
Well, I am posting this tomorrow evening.
Whether January Rankings come first depends on me getting the stage race points info from reporters, and also me having any time to do the rankings update. I don't see it as vital that the update comes before racing for the next month begins - many times last season it did not.
Okay, just had a doubt regarding that. Well, as long as the racing continues at a good pace, I have no complaints.  |
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 21-04-2014 21:58
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Drapac. Logically seen, he should be in with a shout for a Top 15. NZCC has shown that he can do (surprisingly) well under chaotic circumstances, but seems to struggle a bit in an organised sprint. He might be dropped though, and maybe he just won't do shit. Going by last years result, and because the Irish never give up without a fight, a man in the break is a must for us.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 22-04-2014 02:11
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The Eddie Stobart are on a high after there performance in New Zealand so hopefully they will keep up there good run of form here |
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| Levi4life |
Posted on 22-04-2014 02:33
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valverde321 wrote:
Hoping for the best, but expecting the worst
I'm just expecting the worst
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 22-04-2014 04:24
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I was sure I picked this race as a goal, but I confused it with Taihu Lake. I guess the competition won't be easy in any of those, but let's try to at least manage to hang on to a sprint train with a rider this time |
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