calculated stats based on FINAL results
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 14:53
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Wild Dog wrote:
I think it's a question of changing the value for each race category (WT, .hc, .1 etc.) so the difference is bigger. That way the Tour for example will count even more and riders such as Sagan and Valverde will not be the best in sprints and mountains respectively.
That is implemented;
If you look in the sheet at the points table, you will find that
top 5 in 1 day race will get;
| 1.WT1 | 1.WT2 | 1.HC | 1.1 | 1 | 280 | 220 | 140 | 80 | 2 | 170 | 132 | 84 | 48 | 3 | 145 | 112 | 72 | 40 | 4 | 125 | 96 | 62 | 36 | 5 | 112 | 86 | 54 | 32 |
top 5 stages in tour of value get;
GT1s | GT2s | 2.WT1s | 2.WT2s | 2.HCs | 2.1s | 140 | 80 | 46 | 35 | 28 | 20 | 84 | 48 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 72 | 40 | 24 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 62 | 36 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54 | 32 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
Of course the points are not handed more then just top 5, but to compare.
So winning a stage in the tour is the same as winning a 1-day race of 1.HC category.
@Paul23; you are right, being top 2 to 10 every sprint in the Tour de France doesn't mean that you are better than Kittel who finish first a number of times... but I would like to think that when you're playing PCM with a number of sprinters that have the possibility to win, than it would be OK that Sagan is 1 of them. but as stated before;
Of course I can adjust this while copying and pasting it into a database. Give Kittel 84, Cavendish 83 and the rest 82...
Mind you I'm not defending my algorithm, I know it is far from finished and has a number of improvements and enhancements that could be made. But I would like to base them on more then just a couple of individual results that could be better.
I'm currently working on the algorithm that for the fighter stat, but still struggling on how to proceed. Will post some results later on to get some feedback. |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 17:46
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Ok,
also tried to calculate the fighter stat... this is not something I can calculate based on the number of hours spend in a breakaway... (if anybody has such a database or a link to it, than feel free to share )
But the result is somewhat satisfying, see for yourself. Anybody missing?
Spoiler nr | CyclistName | FLA | MOU | HIL | TT | PRL | COB | SPR | ACC | DHL | FTR | STA | RES | REC | POP | 1 | VOECKLER Thomas | 73 | 74 | 77 | 61 | 52 | 69 | 64 | 72 | 77 | 80 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 81 | 2 | VAN AVERMAET Greg | 79 | 59 | 80 | 51 | 51 | 81 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 79 | 74 | 84 | 3 | COSTA Rui Alberto Faria | 74 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 53 | 75 | 74 | 82 | 79 | 77 | 81 | 81 | 85 | 4 | VISCONTI Giovanni | 72 | 75 | 76 | 57 | 55 | 54 | 74 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 5 | ROLLAND Pierre | 72 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 51 | 50 | 62 | 72 | 76 | 78 | 72 | 75 | 78 | 81 | 6 | DE MARCHI Alessandro | 64 | 75 | 74 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 56 | 71 | 75 | 78 | 71 | 73 | 66 | 78 | 7 | CHAVANEL Sylvain | 76 | 75 | 76 | 79 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 83 | 8 | TSCHOPP Johann | 71 | 72 | 69 | 51 | 53 | 50 | 51 | 65 | 74 | 77 | 62 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 9 | CARUSO Damiano | 72 | 75 | 75 | 61 | 52 | 50 | 70 | 72 | 76 | 77 | 71 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 10 | PORTE Richie | 72 | 79 | 75 | 77 | 78 | 53 | 65 | 72 | 79 | 77 | 73 | 78 | 79 | 83 | 11 | GALLOPIN Tony | 74 | 74 | 78 | 60 | 74 | 74 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 77 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 82 | 12 | EDET Nicolas | 63 | 71 | 66 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 53 | 68 | 74 | 77 | 60 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 13 | PERAUD Jean-Christophe | 73 | 79 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 51 | 67 | 73 | 79 | 77 | 74 | 79 | 82 | 84 | 14 | CUNEGO Damiano | 72 | 74 | 77 | 60 | 62 | 51 | 68 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 80 | 15 | GILBERT Philippe | 73 | 74 | 83 | 66 | 78 | 59 | 75 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 74 | 83 | 16 | HESJEDAL Ryder | 71 | 76 | 76 | 69 | 74 | 50 | 61 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 80 | 17 | NORDHAUG Lars Petter | 72 | 65 | 76 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 59 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 74 | 79 | 18 | TERPSTRA Niki | 80 | 64 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 83 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 83 | 19 | GESINK Robert | 73 | 76 | 77 | 66 | 73 | 50 | 64 | 72 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 77 | 77 | 81 | 20 | MARTIN Tony | 77 | 75 | 76 | 84 | 77 | 59 | 75 | 73 | 77 | 76 | 71 | 78 | 77 | 84 | 21 | CLARKE Simon | 71 | 74 | 75 | 52 | 69 | 54 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 22 | TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets | 69 | 74 | 73 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 52 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 69 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 23 | GAVAZZI Francesco | 72 | 66 | 76 | 51 | 63 | 53 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 71 | 75 | 74 | 80 | 24 | VRECER Robert | 53 | 53 | 53 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 53 | 61 | 76 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 25 | BOASSON HAGEN Edvald | 75 | 61 | 76 | 60 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 75 | 82 | 26 | MONTAGUTI Matteo | 74 | 67 | 75 | 53 | 53 | 50 | 65 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 71 | 74 | 71 | 79 | 27 | BAKELANTS Jan | 73 | 75 | 77 | 57 | 74 | 61 | 74 | 73 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 77 | 77 | 82 | 28 | CATALDO Dario | 71 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 73 | 50 | 59 | 71 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 29 | FRANK Mathias | 73 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 76 | 50 | 62 | 71 | 78 | 76 | 72 | 77 | 78 | 82 | 30 | LIGTHART Pim | 71 | 57 | 70 | 51 | 52 | 56 | 73 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 64 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 31 | PIRAZZI Stefano | 65 | 64 | 74 | 57 | 50 | 50 | 54 | 67 | 74 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 65 | 78 | 32 | ULISSI Diego | 73 | 77 | 81 | 76 | 68 | 52 | 72 | 75 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 79 | 76 | 83 | 33 | VICHOT Arthur | 72 | 64 | 76 | 57 | 50 | 50 | 74 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 34 | KWIATKOWSKI Michal | 75 | 75 | 81 | 77 | 81 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 79 | 78 | 84 | 35 | BARDET Romain | 73 | 78 | 77 | 64 | 74 | 52 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 79 | 79 | 83 | 36 | PELLIZOTTI Franco | 72 | 76 | 77 | 63 | 50 | 50 | 62 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 81 | 37 | PAOLINI Luca | 73 | 55 | 75 | 52 | 50 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 63 | 80 | 38 | KOLOBNEV Alexandr | 71 | 58 | 76 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 58 | 72 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 64 | 79 | 39 | POZZATO Filippo | 72 | 51 | 75 | 52 | 74 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 56 | 79 | 40 | LEUKEMANS Björn | 73 | 55 | 77 | 50 | 52 | 76 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 68 | 80 | 41 | LAGUTIN Sergey | 71 | 60 | 74 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 63 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 42 | ALBASINI Michael | 72 | 59 | 77 | 52 | 75 | 54 | 74 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 75 | 63 | 80 | 43 | SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon | 72 | 74 | 76 | 67 | 74 | 50 | 63 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 44 | MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel | 72 | 79 | 81 | 67 | 55 | 50 | 65 | 74 | 79 | 75 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 84 | 45 | ROCHE Nicolas | 72 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 53 | 50 | 74 | 73 | 77 | 75 | 75 | 77 | 78 | 82 | 46 | TROFIMOV Yury | 71 | 75 | 75 | 58 | 53 | 53 | 66 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 80 | 47 | CLEMENT Stef | 69 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 50 | 58 | 72 | 73 | 75 | 58 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 48 | HANSEN Adam | 69 | 74 | 70 | 53 | 60 | 50 | 62 | 74 | 74 | 75 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 49 | RIBLON Christophe | 71 | 75 | 74 | 61 | 71 | 50 | 65 | 71 | 75 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 50 | ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin | 73 | 74 | 76 | 52 | 58 | 60 | 78 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 81 | 51 | STYBAR Zdenek | 75 | 61 | 75 | 53 | 74 | 79 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 76 | 75 | 81 | 52 | HERRADA LOPEZ Jose | 68 | 75 | 74 | 65 | 53 | 50 | 57 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 53 | FUGLSANG Jakob | 72 | 77 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 72 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 77 | 78 | 82 | 54 | CAPECCHI Eros | 68 | 75 | 74 | 56 | 65 | 50 | 57 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 55 | THOMAS Geraint | 75 | 74 | 75 | 75 | 78 | 78 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 81 | 56 | RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel Angel | 72 | 61 | 76 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 73 | 79 | 57 | URAN URAN Rigoberto | 72 | 79 | 77 | 77 | 66 | 50 | 65 | 73 | 77 | 75 | 74 | 78 | 80 | 83 | 58 | WESTRA Lieuwe | 72 | 74 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 56 | 74 | 75 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 80 | 59 | CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins | 72 | 75 | 74 | 55 | 53 | 50 | 57 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 60 | GESCHKE Simon | 72 | 74 | 77 | 55 | 69 | 50 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 80 |
Edited by TankNL on 11-08-2014 17:46
|
|
|
|
zachbastian |
Posted on 11-08-2014 17:58
|
Free Agent
Posts: 131
Joined: 26-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Voigt |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 18:07
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
zachbastian wrote:
Voigt
I knew that name would come up... I tried to get the algorithm to push him upwards, but then all other riders would get messed up stats.
CyclistName | FLA | MOU | HIL | TT | PRL | COB | SPR | ACC | DHL | FTR | STA | RES | REC | POP | VOIGT Jens | 60 | 62 | 64 | 57 | 68 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 73 | 74 | 58 | 69 | 65 | 69 |
He's "only" 74 fighter... his popularity is also off in my opinion, but he doesn't get good (big) results, that's why the popularity calculation is so low.
Edited by TankNL on 11-08-2014 18:08
|
|
|
|
Lachi |
Posted on 11-08-2014 18:25
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8516
Joined: 29-06-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
I think it is a good system even if random riders like Voight or Sagan do not fit. It is easier to fix certain riders than to create a whole DB. |
|
|
|
Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 09:03
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
IP: None |
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 19:40
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Lachi wrote:
I think it is a good system even if random riders like Voight or Sagan do not fit. It is easier to fix certain riders than to create a whole DB.
Thanks Lachi, that's exactly my point |
|
|
|
sammyt93 |
Posted on 11-08-2014 21:17
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
|
2 thoughts strike me looking through the most recent set of data.
the being that the sprint stats on a whole look high, highlighted by 7 guys being on the joint highest sprint and after looking at the raw points value of them I believe that the points to stat threshold for sprint might need adjusting a little as there's quite abit of variation in the points for those tied on 83. The lowest is Cavendish on 4690.17 points and the highest is Sagan on 6953.395 points.
Judging solely off the point value Sagan and Greipel should probably be joint highest, then Kristoff, Kittel then Bouhani and Degenkolb. Then Cavendish who isn't that much higher then Demare and they could be on the same level.
The second thing is that Valverde tends to have alot of racedays so he has a lot more chances to score points. I'm not sure how many more he has compared to Froome, Contador and the rest but I'd imagine it has had some impact on his points value and subsequently on his stats.
I was thinking it might produce a better outcome if there was a way of dividing the points by the umber of racedays as it should bring guys like valverde who race a lot and have a lot more chances to score points back to a more comparable level to others and would help avoid penalising anyone who has crashed and had to miss large or key parts of their season. For example Boonen missing the cobbled races in 2013 although it doesn't look like that's had an effect in the current stats.
Yes I know that could create a few more problems like Wiggins and Sorenson doing well in cobbles despite only taking part in 1 years worth instead of multiple seasons like the specialists but it should help the top guys anyway.
Although looking at the latest results Cobble might need stretching out in the same way, though I've not yet looked at their raw points value it still seems a little odd seeing 5 guy tied on the highest stat.
|
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 22:13
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
As announced, I've created a .cdb based on ASOdb2014.
Did nothing else but copy and past the stats from the Excel.
I only did a couple minor adjustments, just because I feel like that would become more realistic (like I said in this thread, its not about an individual, but about the Algorithms);
Mountain;
Valverde 83 -> 80
Contador 82 -> 83
Froome 82 -> 83
Ten Dam 77 -> 78 (because I'm Dutch )
Peraud 79 -> 80 (could be 81, but then Its solely on the TdF)
Cobbles;
Terpstra 83 -> 82
Sagan 83 -> 81
Sprint;
Kittel 83 -> 84
Cavendish 83 -> 84
Kristoff 83 -> 82
Degenkolb 83 -> 82
Sagan 83 -> 80
Bouhanni 83 -> 80
Fighter
Voight 74 -> 80
Here is the edited .cdb file; https://dl.dropbo...lStats.cdb
I hope a couple of you guys can help me with some test runs. |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 22:27
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
sammyt93 wrote:
2 thoughts strike me looking through the most recent set of data.
the being that the sprint stats on a whole look high, highlighted by 7 guys being on the joint highest sprint and after looking at the raw points value of them I believe that the points to stat threshold for sprint might need adjusting a little as there's quite abit of variation in the points for those tied on 83. The lowest is Cavendish on 4690.17 points and the highest is Sagan on 6953.395 points.
Judging solely off the point value Sagan and Greipel should probably be joint highest, then Kristoff, Kittel then Bouhani and Degenkolb. Then Cavendish who isn't that much higher then Demare and they could be on the same level.
The second thing is that Valverde tends to have alot of racedays so he has a lot more chances to score points. I'm not sure how many more he has compared to Froome, Contador and the rest but I'd imagine it has had some impact on his points value and subsequently on his stats.
I was thinking it might produce a better outcome if there was a way of dividing the points by the umber of racedays as it should bring guys like valverde who race a lot and have a lot more chances to score points back to a more comparable level to others and would help avoid penalising anyone who has crashed and had to miss large or key parts of their season. For example Boonen missing the cobbled races in 2013 although it doesn't look like that's had an effect in the current stats.
Yes I know that could create a few more problems like Wiggins and Sorenson doing well in cobbles despite only taking part in 1 years worth instead of multiple seasons like the specialists but it should help the top guys anyway.
Although looking at the latest results Cobble might need stretching out in the same way, though I've not yet looked at their raw points value it still seems a little odd seeing 5 guy tied on the highest stat.
Thanks Sammyt93, your input is very usefull... I actually had implemented an average calculated by number of race days, but got a lot of crazy results because of multiple cyclist doing good for 5 results (one 2.1 tour for instance) and would mess up all calculations. The other thing is, that injuries happen very often, whether we like it or not. So, missing out on a race goal for the season is big, but what about Jurgen Van den Broeck who was ill during the tour, or Mollema, how was ill the first week....
For me then it because interpretation again and I would like to keep looking at the results, find patterns and use and algorithm to calculate based on those patterns.
If you look at the result tab, then you will see that all results within 365 now count 5 times, all within 730 days count 3 times and the others 1 time. So that also might explain why Cavendish has less points, he has not scored a WT podium this year and his victories of last year count less than podium places of for instance Demare or Sagan of this year.
But if you could give me hints on how to improve the points distribution, than I would be more than happy to give it a go. After all, your idea about the domestics is what made the stats actually usable |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 22:42
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
sammyt93 wrote:
the being that the sprint stats on a whole look high, highlighted by 7 guys being on the joint highest sprint and after looking at the raw points value of them I believe that the points to stat threshold for sprint might need adjusting a little as there's quite abit of variation in the points for those tied on 83. The lowest is Cavendish on 4690.17 points and the highest is Sagan on 6953.395 points.
Judging solely off the point value Sagan and Greipel should probably be joint highest, then Kristoff, Kittel then Bouhani and Degenkolb. Then Cavendish who isn't that much higher then Demare and they could be on the same level.
The formula for calculating the stats is on the stats sheets.
I take the highest (actually second highest, because highest is the total of the column) scored points of the sprint column in the Pivot table.
Then I take the max points - 10 (in case of Sprint 83-10 = 73 and increase that by the points scored divided by (highest scored points divided by 15).
So 73 + pointsScored / (highestPointsScored/15) = SprintStat (fail-save is build-in, so if it comes above the max stat, then the max stat is used)
But only for somebody who has more points than highest scored points divided by 15. If this is not the case then I will do 50 plus 25 times points scored divided by (highest scored points divided by 15).
So 50 + 25 * pointsScored / (highestPointsScored/15) = SprintStat (impossible to go above 75)
I could use other algorithm's but it is a dilemma of not wanting to create to big of a gap between top and rest and giving enough momentum in order to make the results translate into a scale from 50 to the maximum stat. |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 22:45
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
TankNL wrote:
As announced, I've created a .cdb based on ASOdb2014.
Did nothing else but copy and past the stats from the Excel.
I only did a couple minor adjustments, just because I feel like that would become more realistic (like I said in this thread, its not about an individual, but about the Algorithms);
Mountain;
Valverde 83 -> 80
Contador 82 -> 83
Froome 82 -> 83
Ten Dam 77 -> 78 (because I'm Dutch )
Peraud 79 -> 80 (could be 81, but then Its solely on the TdF)
Cobbles;
Terpstra 83 -> 82
Sagan 83 -> 81
Sprint;
Kittel 83 -> 84
Cavendish 83 -> 84
Kristoff 83 -> 82
Degenkolb 83 -> 82
Sagan 83 -> 80
Bouhanni 83 -> 80
Fighter
Voight 74 -> 80
Here is the edited .cdb file; https://dl.dropbo...lStats.cdb
I hope a couple of you guys can help me with some test runs.
Forgot to give credits to OlegTinkov, who did a fantastic job with his database. Used it already for some time and really like it. That's why I used his db to experiment. |
|
|
|
sammyt93 |
Posted on 11-08-2014 23:04
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
|
I love the Idea of using the multiplier for a decay of results, assuming you are able to keep this up to date will the results change bracket automatically?
Maybe adjusting the multiplier to 1, 1.5, 2.5 instead of 1,3,5 would help those that have missed a race goal for a season but I don't know what effect that would have on everyone else or on the stats in general.
|
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 11-08-2014 23:09
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
sammyt93 wrote:
I love the Idea of using the multiplier for a decay of results, assuming you are able to keep this up to date will the results change bracket automatically?
Maybe adjusting the multiplier to 1, 1.5, 2.5 instead of 1,3,5 would help those that have missed a race goal for a season but I don't know what effect that would have on everyone else or on the stats in general.
the problem then is that Aru, Kelderman, Maijka won't be more than in the middle of the pack and guys like Scarponi and Basso will be more in the top, than the should be. But feel free to toy around with the numbers... that's why I do this "project" open source... |
|
|
|
sammyt93 |
Posted on 11-08-2014 23:18
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
|
TankNL wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
I love the Idea of using the multiplier for a decay of results, assuming you are able to keep this up to date will the results change bracket automatically?
Maybe adjusting the multiplier to 1, 1.5, 2.5 instead of 1,3,5 would help those that have missed a race goal for a season but I don't know what effect that would have on everyone else or on the stats in general.
the problem then is that Aru, Kelderman, Maijka won't be more than in the middle of the pack and guys like Scarponi and Basso will be more in the top, than the should be. But feel free to toy around with the numbers... that's why I do this "project" open source...
what if domestique points had an inverse over time multiplier to individual points, that might help young riders have recently developed into leading roles like Kelderman and Majka, though however you do it you are still going to end up penalising riders that have turned pro since you start taking the results, e.g. the Yates brothers, Ewan etc.
|
|
|
|
OlegTinkov |
Posted on 12-08-2014 01:14
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
Joined: 31-12-2007
PCM$: 450.00
|
Test results A.S.O.DB 2014 with CalStats
Tour de France 2014 (startlist)
Part 1/2
Stage 1 (Simulated)
1 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | 4h23'35 | | 2 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 3 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 5 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 6 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 7 | Bryan Coquard | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 8 | Samuel Dumoulin | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 9 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 10 | Elia Viviani | Cannondale | s.t. | |
Stage 2 (Simulated)
1 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | 5h01'29 | | 2 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | + 24 | P | 3 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 5 | Tony Gallopin | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 6 | Samuel Dumoulin | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 7 | Bauke Mollema | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 8 | MichaÅ‚ Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 9 | Jakob Fuglsang | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 10 | JoaquÃm RodrÃguez | Team Katusha | s.t. | P |
Stage 3 (Simulated)
1 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | 3h17'30 | | 2 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 3 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 5 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 6 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 7 | Elia Viviani | Cannondale | s.t. | | 8 | Greg Van Avermaet | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 9 | Samuel Dumoulin | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 10 | Bryan Coquard | Team Europcar | s.t. | |
Stage 4 (3D)
1 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | 3h26'30 | | 2 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 3 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 5 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 6 | Bryan Coquard | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 7 | Mark Renshaw | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 8 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 9 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 10 | Greg Van Avermaet | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | |
Stage 5 (3D)
1 | Greg Van Avermaet | BMC Racing Team | 3h27'31 | | 2 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 3 | Niki Terpstra | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Sep Vanmarcke | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 53 | | 5 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | s.t. | | 6 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 7 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 8 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 9 | Tony Gallopin | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 10 | Michael Schär | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 11 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 12 | Grégory Rast | Trek Factory Racing | s.t. | | 13 | Jakob Fuglsang | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 14 | Matteo Trentin | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 15 | Sébastien Minard | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 16 | Marcus Burghardt | BMC Racing Team | + 3'00 | | 17 | Lieuwe Westra | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 18 | Luca Paolini | Team Katusha | + 6'13 | P | 19 | Martin Elmiger | IAM Cycling | + 6'50 | | 20 | Maarten Wynants | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 8'34 | | 21 | Thomas Leezer | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 22 | Bauke Mollema | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 23 | Tony Martin | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | + 9'36 | | 24 | Bernhard Eisel | Team Sky | s.t. | | 25 | Sebastian Langeveld | Garmin Sharp | s.t. | | 26 | Jens Keukeleire | Orica GreenEDGE | s.t. | | 27 | Mark Renshaw | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 28 | Jan Bakelants | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 29 | Nicolas Roche | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 30 | Geraint Thomas | Team Sky | s.t. | | 31 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 32 | Lars Boom | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 33 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 34 | Thomas Voeckler | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 35 | Laurens Ten Dam | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 36 | Tanel Kangert | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 37 | Steven Kruijswijk | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 38 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 39 | Haimar Zubeldia | Trek Factory Racing | s.t. | | 40 | Jurgen Van Den Broeck | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 41 | Tom Dumoulin | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 42 | Michael Rogers | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 43 | Alessandro Petacchi | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 44 | Mikel Nieve | Team Sky | s.t. | | 45 | Thibaut Pinot | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 46 | Anthony Delaplace | Bretagne - Séché Environnement | s.t. | | 47 | Jean-Christophe Péraud | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 48 | Christopher Horner | Lampre-Merida | s.t. | | 49 | Roy Curvers | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 50 | Marcel Sieberg | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 51 | Leopold König | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 52 | Andreas Schillinger | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 53 | Michał Gołaś | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 54 | Roger Kluge | IAM Cycling | s.t. | | 55 | Yury Trofimov | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 56 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 57 | Richard Porte | Team Sky | s.t. | | 58 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 59 | Pierre Rolland | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 60 | William Bonnet | FDJ.fr | s.t. | |
Stage 6 (Simulated)
1 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | 4h29'54 | | 2 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 3 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P |
Spoiler 4 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 5 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 6 | Bryan Coquard | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 7 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 8 | Samuel Dumoulin | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 9 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | s.t. | | 10 | Sep Vanmarcke | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | |
Stage 7 (Simulated)
1 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | 4h58'42 | | 2 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 3 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 5 | Arnaud Démare | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 6 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 7 | Elia Viviani | Cannondale | s.t. | | 8 | Greg Van Avermaet | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 9 | Samuel Dumoulin | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 10 | Bryan Coquard | Team Europcar | s.t. | |
Stage 8 (Simulated)
1 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | 3h51'27 | | 2 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 3 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | + 10 | |
Spoiler 4 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 5 | Laurens Ten Dam | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 6 | Thibaut Pinot | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 7 | Bauke Mollema | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 21 | | 8 | Arnold Jeannesson | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 9 | Thomas Voeckler | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 10 | Lieuwe Westra | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 11 | Pierre Rolland | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 12 | JoaquÃm RodrÃguez | Team Katusha | + 32 | P | 13 | Giovanni Visconti | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 14 | Michael Rogers | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 15 | Tanel Kangert | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 16 | Simon Clarke | Orica GreenEDGE | s.t. | | 17 | Jose Machado | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 18 | Geraint Thomas | Team Sky | s.t. | | 19 | David López | Team Sky | s.t. | | 20 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | + 40 | | 21 | Richard Porte | Team Sky | s.t. | | 22 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 23 | Alessandro De Marchi | Cannondale | s.t. | | 24 | Christophe Riblon | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 25 | Jurgen Van Den Broeck | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 26 | José Serpa | Lampre-Merida | s.t. | | 27 | Matteo Montaguti | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 28 | Tony Gallopin | Lotto Belisol | + 50 | | 29 | Jean-Christophe Péraud | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 30 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | s.t. | | 31 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 32 | Michele Scarponi | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 33 | Mikel Nieve | Team Sky | s.t. | | 34 | Vasil Kiryienka | Team Sky | s.t. | | 35 | Brice Feillu | Bretagne - Séché Environnement | s.t. | | 36 | Michael Albasini | Orica GreenEDGE | s.t. | | 37 | Marcus Burghardt | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 38 | Rein Taaramäe | Cofidis, Solutions Crédits | s.t. | | 39 | Rubén Plaza | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 40 | Tony Martin | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | + 59 | | 41 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 42 | Tom Dumoulin | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | | 43 | Jakob Fuglsang | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 44 | Beñat Intxausti | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 45 | Tom-Jelte Slagter | Garmin Sharp | s.t. | | 46 | Jan Bakelants | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 47 | Haimar Zubeldia | Trek Factory Racing | s.t. | | 48 | Sébastien Reichenbach | IAM Cycling | s.t. | | 49 | John Gadret | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 50 | Yukiya Arashiro | Team Europcar | s.t. | | 51 | Lars Boom | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 52 | Mikaël Chérel | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 53 | Jürgen Roelandts | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 54 | RamÅ«nas Navardauskas | Garmin Sharp | s.t. | | 55 | Jérémy Roy | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 56 | Michael Schär | BMC Racing Team | s.t. | | 57 | Luca Paolini | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 58 | Cyril Gautier | Team Europcar | + 1'11 | | 59 | Leopold König | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 60 | Christopher Horner | Lampre-Merida | s.t. | |
Stage 9 (3D)
1 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | 4h16'57 | | 2 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | + 44 | | 3 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | |
Spoiler 4 | Giovanni Visconti | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 5 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | + 1'46 | | 6 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | s.t. | | 7 | Tony Gallopin | Lotto Belisol | s.t. | | 8 | Tom-Jelte Slagter | Garmin Sharp | s.t. | | 9 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | s.t. | | 10 | Tom Dumoulin | Team Giant-Shimano | s.t. | |
Stage 10 (3D)
Breakaway: Rolland, RodrÃguez, Jeannesson, Intxausti, Clarke, Chérel, Schleck, Hansen, De Marchi and Durasek
1 | Pierre Rolland | Team Europcar | 4h32'20 | | 2 | JoaquÃm RodrÃguez | Team Katusha | s.t. | P | 3 | Arnold Jeannesson | FDJ.fr | + 4'02 | |
Spoiler 4 | Beñat Intxausti | Movistar Team | + 4'39 | | 5 | Simon Clarke | Orica GreenEDGE | s.t. | | 6 | Mikaël Chérel | Ag2r La Mondiale | + 5'34 | | 7 | Fränk Schleck | Trek Factory Racing | + 5'45 | | 8 | Adam Hansen | Lotto Belisol | + 6'12 | | 9 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana Pro Team | + 7'04 | | 10 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 11 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | s.t. | | 12 | Thibaut Pinot | FDJ.fr | s.t. | | 13 | Alessandro De Marchi | Cannondale | s.t. | | 14 | Bauke Mollema | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 8'43 | | 15 | Jean-Christophe Péraud | Ag2r La Mondiale | + 8'51 | | 16 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | s.t. | | 17 | Laurens Ten Dam | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | s.t. | | 18 | Christopher Horner | Lampre-Merida | + 10'18 | | 19 | Leopold König | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 20 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | + 10'38 | | 21 | Yury Trofimov | Team Katusha | + 10'56 | P | 22 | David López | Team Sky | + 11'48 | | 23 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC Racing Team | + 12'32 | | 24 | Richard Porte | Team Sky | + 14'33 | | 25 | Kristijan Durasek | Lampre-Merida | s.t. | | 26 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | + 15'13 | | 27 | Haimar Zubeldia | Trek Factory Racing | s.t. | | 28 | Michele Scarponi | Astana Pro Team | s.t. | | 29 | Jurgen Van Den Broeck | Lotto Belisol | + 15'43 | | 30 | Rein Taaramäe | Cofidis, Solutions Crédits | s.t. | |
GENERAL
(after Stage 10)
1 | Vincenzo Nibali | Astana Pro Team | 41h56'12 | | 2 | Sylvain Chavanel | IAM Cycling | + 4'28 | | 3 | Pierre Rolland | Team Europcar | + 5'15 | | 4 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar Team | + 6'33 | | 5 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | + 7'59 | | 6 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | + 8'50 | | 7 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | + 9'18 | | 8 | Tony Gallopin | Lotto Belisol | + 9'19 | | 9 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | s.t. | | 10 | Jakob Fuglsang | Astana Pro Team | + 9'28 | | 11 | Bauke Mollema | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 9'31 | | 12 | Thibaut Pinot | FDJ.fr | + 9'32 | | 13 | Laurens Ten Dam | Belkin-Pro Cycling Team | + 10'30 | | 14 | Jean-Christophe Péraud | Ag2r La Mondiale | + 11'10 | | 15 | Lieuwe Westra | Astana Pro Team | + 12'17 | | 16 | Beñat Intxausti | Movistar Team | + 12'57 | | 17 | Simon Clarke | Orica GreenEDGE | + 13'19 | | 18 | Christopher Horner | Lampre-Merida | + 13'47 | | 19 | Leopold König | Team NetApp - Endura | s.t. | | 20 | Yury Trofimov | Team Katusha | + 14'00 | P | 21 | Mikaël Chérel | Ag2r La Mondiale | + 14'16 | | 22 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC Racing Team | + 15'15 | | 23 | Arnold Jeannesson | FDJ.fr | + 15'32 | | 24 | Richard Porte | Team Sky | + 17'31 | | 25 | Thomas Voeckler | Team Europcar | + 17'33 | |
POINTS
(after Stage 10)
1 | Alexander Kristoff | Team Katusha | 250 | P | 2 | Marcel Kittel | Team Giant-Shimano | 248 | | 3 | John Degenkolb | Team Giant-Shimano | 244 | | 4 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | 237 | | 5 | André Greipel | Lotto Belisol | 210 | |
MOUNTAIN
(after Stage 10)
1 | Pierre Rolland | Team Europcar | 59 | | 2 | JoaquÃm RodrÃguez | Team Katusha | 47 | P | 3 | Arnold Jeannesson | FDJ.fr | 40 | | 4 | Kristijan Durasek | Lampre-Merida | 24 | | 5 | Beñat Intxausti | Movistar Team | 18 | |
YOUNG
(after Stage 10)
1 | Michał Kwiatkowski | Omega Pharma - Quick-Step | 42h04'11 | 2 | Peter Sagan | Cannondale | + 51 | 3 | Rafał Majka | Tinkoff-Saxo | + 1'19 | 4 | Romain Bardet | Ag2r La Mondiale | + 1'20 | 5 | Thibaut Pinot | FDJ.fr | + 1'33 |
Edited by OlegTinkov on 12-08-2014 01:23
|
|
|
|
Paul23 |
Posted on 12-08-2014 01:54
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
|
now it looks quite good...
i would still give voigt 85 in FTR....but thats maybe because im german...
BTW: nice, that you've made some adjustments on the stats. now they look better than before...
you said, you make this project open source...so we could make some tests ourselfs and we could write you suggestions, or what do you mean by open source(yes, i know what open source is, but everyone handles it a bit different)
|
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 12-08-2014 02:57
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Paul23 wrote:
now it looks quite good...
i would still give voigt 85 in FTR....but thats maybe because im german...
BTW: nice, that you've made some adjustments on the stats. now they look better than before...
you said, you make this project open source...so we could make some tests ourselfs and we could write you suggestions, or what do you mean by open source(yes, i know what open source is, but everyone handles it a bit different)
Thanks Paul23, yes by open source I mean that I post all my source files with I use to create / generate the stats. I do that so that people can see and understand how the are generated and also to suggest or discuss topics on that matter. Sammyt93 has posted several good idea's and some of them are used in the model that I used to create the .cdb |
|
|
|
ContadorVelasco |
Posted on 12-08-2014 03:39
|
Under 23
Posts: 53
Joined: 27-07-2014
PCM$: 200.00
|
average results imo |
|
|
|
TankNL |
Posted on 12-08-2014 03:51
|
Domestique
Posts: 440
Joined: 19-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
ContadorVelasco wrote:
average results imo
I'm trying hard to appreciate you opinion, but can you explain yourself a little bit more? Did you do a test run? Are you replying on the results that OlegTinkov has posted? If so, what is average in you oppinion? Without that, you comment is rather useless, but that is just my honest opinion.
Edited by TankNL on 12-08-2014 03:52
|
|
|
|
ContadorVelasco |
Posted on 12-08-2014 04:01
|
Under 23
Posts: 53
Joined: 27-07-2014
PCM$: 200.00
|
TankNL wrote:
ContadorVelasco wrote:
average results imo
I'm trying hard to appreciate you opinion, but can you explain yourself a little bit more? Did you do a test run? Are you replying on the results that OlegTinkov has posted? If so, what is average in you oppinion? Without that, you comment is rather useless, but that is just my honest opinion.
About Oleg results.
Chavanel only lost 3min to Nibali at stage with mountains and mountains.
im not have db, but im test here simulate stages and i see what results im have |
|
|