24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Thanks cunego, really cool idea to use that method. As far as I'm concerned, much more interesting than the "simple maths ones" and doing it was really fun.
2nd in the prediction is cool, kinda liked being a bit more "underrated" in the other ones. I'm surprised that Gazelle is so low but i guess they rely more on hitting the right races with Dombrowski than e.g. me.
Really excited to see that CT ranking (not for my own team), but amazing to see the top 2 so far in front. A relegation battle set up between at least 8 teams should be really fun to watch and 11-15 aren't that far behind either. Still backing Podium Ambition for 3rd, but it'll be a tight and interesting battle for sure.
Really is all going to come down to race planning and who deep/empty the C2 cobbles fields are. If you can score there, you'll make the difference.
Every team needs a supporter like Laurens! Love the 1st place hope, but we won't beat Tafjord or Gjesindje across the season.
Thanks for the results Cunego! General consensus around 4th-5th i'm ok with. But again it shows just how crazy competitive the CT might be this year. Across all the predictions there's such variability behind the Top 2. It's gonna be a wild and fun season
Thanks to all of those who made predictions!
We're rated around the 10th, though more outside of the top 10 than not. Let's hope we can still enter it, 10th would be sufficient for me.
As the season is on now, good luck everyone, and have fun!
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
After CT and PCT, I'll try to come up with something reasonable for PT as well. For me, it's the most difficult division to assess. On one hand because of the huge differences in points scales between TdF and PTHC tours, or between monuments and PTHC classics. On the other hand because of some "point machines". You can have a team that mostly looks like lower mid-table, or even relegation candidate - but when adding a Herklotz on top of it you get a podium candidate! Puma would indeed have relegated last year without Herklotz - with him they finished 3rd... Well, with one year more of MG experience, and after doing the rankings stuff last year, I'll hopefully have a better understanding of some PT stuff - but I'll happily take some comments of where my prediction is flawed
And yeah, I know I'm late to the party, given that the season is already underways - just didn't manage to finish it before vacation. The Top 12 were done before, so Tasmania results definitely aren't considered for these
Pro Tour
Rank
Team
Comment
1
King Power
Logical choice, being #2 last year and the winners gone now. But training brings Gidich another level higher, and Mano is now among the top contenders even in pan-flat TTs. While being the best hilly TTer (apart from Phinney and Wirtgen). Kasperkiewicz and Sosa will be great again - although losing Sosa's and Mano's U25 points will surely hurt. Smith was replaced by Chamorro, and Fernandes should more or less replace Roglic's points - they're not a clear title favorite for me, but still the most likely contender.
2
Evonik - ELKO
Yes, I took my time to pick 2nd place. And from 13th to 2nd needs some explanation. First, I think both Lecuisinier and Lopez had a rather bad year points-wise, finishing 9th and 11th while being 3rd and 4th in terms of OVL. They're now even 2nd and 3rd after Phinney's decline, and I believe they could score 300 points more each than last year. Another big difference is that they now actually have an interesting option for non-PHL races with Foss, whereas Eenkhoorn will try to replace Vosekalns' scoring. And Kurianov adds the "flat beast" dimension they didn't have last year, either. I think it's far from granted that they actually get a podium - but I think they've got the tools.
3
Gazelle
Another surprise, probably. But they got a Top 10 last year, and besides Dombrowski, Lutsenko and Teunissen - a GT podium contender, a top puncheur and a solid cobbler - they now got Warchol, Senni and Lander in their Top 6 positions. Warchol should be a Top 10 candidate in non-Dombrowksi GTs, Senni is a nice allround climber (and climbing domestique), and Lander is the sprinter they didn't have last year. And they obviously have their well-known depth for the uphills. Just like for Evonik, no clear-cut podium contenders for me, but they've surprised us often enough to have them high up on my list...
4
Team Puma - SAP
Yes, I dare. I dare making Puma miss out on the podium in this prediction. Of course, Herklotz is still Herklotz, and Herklotz will win the individual standings. And Ganna is still Ganna and will score well, although he got some more competition this year. But Démare is gone. And with him it's 1,639 points leaving the team. As much as I do like Kanter, I don't see him getting even half of that. Of course, Zimmermann, THJ, Rutsch and maxed Zwiehoff will make up for at least a part of this, but it feels like there's still some gap. I could of course be wrong, but this might be the year where an impressive series of consecutive PT podiums stops. If not, well, kudos for extending it once again during the "transition phase".
5
EA Vesuvio
Another team that I estimate to be stronger than last year. Apart from Moser (and maybe Ulissi), they kept their leader core together. Doesn't sound spectacular, but: Wirtgen's training alongside Phinney's decline should be worth some points. Even more so, however, quite a few talents maxing out. Most notably Valter, who joins the ranks of the big puncheurs, and could well score close to 1,000 points. Munton is the best U25 allround-TTer of the division, and part of the strongest TTT team. And Geniets was already a better scorer than Ulissi last year and should cover these losses. Despite not having any trace of a cobbler, or another really fast sprinter - although Alaphilippe could get some good results as well - I think they could still clearly improve on last year's outcome and aim for a Top 5.
6
MOL Cycling Team
No spot gained despite getting Phinney, how can that be? Well, Phinney has (slightly) declined, but more importantly sucks up 1.6M of wage. Meaning that the quality of other leaders went down a bit - or at least looks so. He'll easily outscore Tenorio's 2022 result, but: Altur scored clearly less than Theuns, whereas Almeida could score similarly well as Galta thanks to U25 points. But he can't replace both Inkelaar and McNulty as well, and Cardila can't replace Kwiatkowski. On the other hand, Keough might outscore Petit - and builds an extremely strong prologue trident alongside Phinney and Chavanne. But I'm not sure it's enough to move up the rankings.
7
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
Two spots lost despite absolutely zero changes among their leaders? Well, mostly because Sivakov loses all those U25 points - and 4 RDs due to his training. And I'm not sure that this training will make much of a difference - in the best case, he'll score similarly to 2022, but I doubt he can finish 12th again. And I don't expect higher scorings by the other leaders - although the cobblers might be a tad more lucky in some races, especially if stamina really is more of a factor now. But with the team rather stagnating and others improving, they could indeed drop a bit.
8
Polar
My first thought: That's not a very balanced team. But it's a strong one, definitely! Bernal should now have more than just an outside shot at a GT podium, whereas Latour and Shikai ensure they'll have a Top 5 contender in any mountain race they enter. Mullen and Viennet are a cool spearhead duo of one of the strongest TT cores. And then there's maxed Philipsen, who already scored 300 points last year. On the downside, with Altur's and Izagirre's departure they leave two terrains without any strong rider. I dare to say that with a strong puncheur instead of adding more climbing depth, they'd be podium candidates - just because of all those classics and monuments they probably won't score much in. But I can still see them move inside the Top 10.
9
ELCO - ABEA
Plenty of trainings, but I still see them a tad lower than last year. Why? Coquard and Farantakis are the best sprinter duo in MG this year - and they will carry the team. But Koretzky has declined and should score less than last year. Carapaz is a weaker stage racer than Chiarello. Vlatos has declined and is no longer world-class. And: there are no more U25 points for all of Giannoutsos, Kiriakidis and Vila, with only Stavrakakis potentially getting some significant points this year. On the other hand, their TT core got stronger, despite their leader's decline. All in all, I see them score a little less - also because Coquard had a fantastic season last year, which he may not fully repeat - but wouldn't be surprised to see them stay inside the Top 10.
10
Aker - MOT
I changed my mind several times on who could get this spot - it's getting really difficult to make a difference between the teams in that region. Aker finished 4th last year, now I see them much further down - why? Two main reasons: Dainese is gone, and none of their current sprinters will get close to those 650 points. And the TTers are gone - an entire department with a significant overall score. And Foss is gone as well, just to name another quite significant loss. And what's on the plus side? Wisniowski and Mohoric will continue to be great leaders. Amezawa is now a potentially amezing GT stage hunter - or a good candidate for hybrid races. And Anderberg? Well, he's now obviously a potential leader in his own right - but we've seen with other teams that depth scoring on the cobbles doesn't always work out. So for me, that's another question mark. But if the two cobblers work well together, they could get great results.
11
Binance
It's starting to get pretty random with my guesses now... Whereas I really don't like the strategy of getting declining leaders, I think it could go really well for Binance - for one year. Sagan finished 7th in the individual standings last year, and despite his decline he should still get a lot of points. It remains to be seen how that works out when paired with Kwiatkowski, who should rather be covering the hybrid races however. Tenorio likely won't win another GT, but is still a podium contender, and alongside Rodrigues makes sure to cover all GTs with strong climbers. The biggest question marks are Vanbilsen and Carsi - whereas the former could still be a strong subtop leader, the latter will probably lack consistency - while still scoring sometimes. Where they really lack a leader is in TT races Tenorio can't cover - but all other teams have their weaknesses as well.
12
Lidl Cycling
De Bie is a world-class puncheur - on paper. If he can confirm that, he should be able to match Yates' 2022 score - which was really high, though. And Barguil should be able to replace Meintjes, although he scored less last year. Then we have Turgis gone, whose replacement is the far more versatile Van der Poel - we'll see how that means scoring-wise. In terms of scoring, Kemboi had a pretty disappointing 2022 season and will be looking to get those numbers up again. What remains to be seen is what Peak can do with his huge engine - if he can replace Bol and Kamberaj, that would be a great move for Lidl. All in all, I don't feel like they got much stronger (if at all), which probably just means I guess the teams ahead of them got weaker...
13
cycleYorkshire
With Morton and Carthy, the Brits have a great duo for the mountains - although none of them is a good TTer. I think they underperformed last year, and they could well get some more points this time. Which will be needed, as Yates probably won't score as much as Summerhill did last year. Nonetheless, he should be in a pretty good position now, with Démare and Ackermann down in PCT, so he's now PT's fastest puncheur by a mile (although not the best punchy sprinter). The missing points from Fraile will surely hurt them, but with Hayter now maxed and some additional TTT depth, they shouldn't lose a lot overall - if Cullaigh is as solid as he was last year.
14
Moser - Sygic
I agree that 14th is really low for a team featuring one of the world's best climbers AND one of the world's best sprinters. But the issue is that they're really, really top-heavy now. Gaviria scored less points than Sagan last year - and both Warchol and Ponzi are gone as well. From two top-puncheurs to no viable options on the hills - that's a lot of points gone. Kudus and Gaviria will have to do really, really well to replace all those lost points - and apart from Hirt, there's probably not much help. Having two 29 y.o. leaders sounds great - but what will the prize to pay be?
15
Grieg-Maersk
I agree that 15th is really low for a team featuring one of the world's best TTers AND one of the world's best cobblers. But the issue is that they're really, really top-heavy now. With APP and VdP, they lost both of their great allrounders, and I doubt that Tiller can even remotely replace their points alongside Ringheim's. Of course, Pedersen is now even better, and he'll do a great job again - but with the cobblers' schedule being limited, I'm not sure that trading APP and VdP for +1 Cob for Pedersen will really be worthwile... I can see them struggle quite a bit this year - but if the cobbles and TTs really go in their way, they could still be Top 10 contenders. World-beaters just have a huge scoring potential - but if they don't deliver, they're quite a big risk as well...
16
Amaysim Australia.com
The Aussies are the 2nd best promoted team on my list. This is mainly due to their great depth both on mountains and hills - plus a strong leader on both terrains. Haig could have an outside shot at a GT podium with his TT strength, whereas McCarthy clearly isn't a rider for hybrid races, but could excel in pure puncheur ones. Groves is a cool sprinter for the future and is still U25 eligible, whereas I don't like Kennaugh's backups. But he'll score as well, for sure. Durbridge is a proven TTer as well, who will have his bright moments. Storer didn't have a good year in 2022 - but he might be more suited to PT KoM hunting anyway. Schultz, L. Hamilton and Lane are versatile uphill riders as well, with Evans adding some TT skills. So, what are they missing to finish even higher? Maybe a top star in any discipline. Or a top cobbler, as this discipline isn't well covered. Instead, they have an armada of rouleurs with Sweeney, Wohler, Culey and Christensen - beware of those!
17
Cedevita
17th is the final non-relegating spot - and I honestly thought I'd have Cedevita even higher. Pogacar and Hart are two really cool subtop GC riders, with the former likely picking up lots of U25 points. And the latter being a realy threat for any non-trivial TT-heavy race. Speaking of TT, getting their TTT core up from decent PCT level to high PT level is definitely something. Lammertink and Howson should get some individual results, but they'll also lead a very strong TTT lineup. Unfortunately for them, TTTs aren't too frequent in PT, though... In terms of sprinters, Enger's versatility is a plus, and Rajovic's acceleration makes him dangerous as well. What's missing - just like for Amaysim - is a strong cobbler, although Siric definitely has the potential go get there some day, being a good sprinter and decent puncheur already, on top of his cobbles stat. Their climbing depth could be crucial in their quest to stay up, too.
18
Rabobank
The only just managed to stay up last year - and I can see them struggle until the very end again, unfortunately. The reason is that there's absolutely no change in their leadership - meaning no improvement, either. Gerts, Formolo and Grosu did a good job last year - and they have to get at least a similar amount of points again. Van Poppel might score a bit higher, but he did fairly well, too. And then it's Champoussin for Rodriguez, which likely won't make a big difference point-wise, either. In general, they've lost some uphill depth, both on long and short climbs, instead getting some more depth for sprints and cobbles. The question will be if Evenepoel can already contribute a decent amount of points - if not, I'm afraid it could go down to the wire for them again...
19
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
I don't like to have them so far down the list, but alas... Galta and Quintana should be OK riders for the mountains, covering all of them - with none of them being strong in TTs, though. The latter has relegated three times in the last three years (Rakuten, Jura, Volcanica), which might not be the best foreshadowing... Per is obviously a great signing, for now and for the future, and some great performances by him will be required to get the much needed points in! Aranburu hasn't been top of PCT last year, we'll see what he can do in PT. Kämna is still a cool rider to have, but faces much more competition this year. And AKA? He has to do well, as Carlsberg will need those points. But will one sprinter be sufficient to cover all important races? And will Kämna be enough for the TTs? I do have some doubts - but at least they're well set for the future anyway, with most leaders being U30!
20
ZARA - Irizar
Their setup worked like a charm in PCT, where they dominated TT-heavy events - but with almost no improvement in that domain, they won't be top in PT. Of course, Wellens and Borges are nice signings. But the former also has a recent history of back-to-back relegations, first with Tryg, then with Aegon. And the latter didn't always live up to his skillset last year - which he clearly needs to change if the Spaniards are to survive. Jakobsen will be a great sprinter to have even in PT, and both Thijssen and Ovsyannikov will get some results, too. But is it enough to stay up? Without a potential high-scorer, I do unfortunately have some serious doubts...
21
Minions
Kinoshita is one of the world's top puncheurs, which he demonstrated by winning L-B-L last year. And he'll deliver in his final maxed year - the question is whether he'll do so in every race or again just from time to time. It has to be the former to give the Minions a chance of surviving. Ahlstrand should still do well, even after a decline. The question is whether Cattaneo's lack of punch - which is even more marked now - hurts him or not. If it doesn't, he should still be among the stronger stage racers, which could be decisive. Kalaba and Hodeg have proven their worth last year, which also holds for a declining Dennis. Vosekalns is a well-known fighter, but betting on breakaways is still somewhat risky. So, it might be down to youngster Bjerg to add some decisive points in TT events, given that the rest of the roster doesn't feature much depth besides from the sprinter department. If the leaders do well, they could still stay up - the division should be pretty close once again!
22
ISA - Hexacta
Yes, I'm serious - and yes, I'm surely underestimating them like every year. However, I don't take it for granted that Ewan can repeat his stellar 2022 season (1,500+ points). And Degenkolb's 750 points are gone - I don't see AvN replacing those already. With Pinot and Bongiorno, both GC riders have declined. So I see quite a lot of (potentially) lost points, pretty much everywhere. The cobbles still aren't covered by a PT-level leader - and although Ferreyra is a solid TTer, he's just one among many of his kind in PT. I know they finished 8th last year, but I just can't see them getting close to that result anymore. And yeah, I know they won't finish that far down - but I currently just don't see them that much higher.
Really nice to read your thoughts on the different teams. I definitely agree with most of your thoughts, and King Power is THE title contender for me too, at least they feel the likeliest to win. 2nd to 5th is very difficult to predict, I feel. I think your thoughts on EA are spot on, and I suspect they'll fly even higher than 5th, being a very serious podium contender in my eyes, maybe even grabbing 2nd, with the three others being close, maybe with Evonik landing 3rd.
10th is a place I happily take this season. You're on point regarding Dainese and the TTT depth, and seeing how Tasmania went, it could cost us even more than I estimated when I sold them all. It's definitely a future investment, as the money generated from the sales made training both Anderberg and Amezawa possible. Regarding Anderberg, I think you're right on his points this season, but as long as we're safe this year (and next year), I think it's well worth it in the long run, as it gives us a replacement on the cobbles. Not Wisniowski class, but should still be very good with another season with training.
For the relegation battle, I must admit reading your preview really made me realize it feels wide, wide open this season! I definitely fancy Zara, Carlsberg and ISA to put up a big fight to avoid the drop, and then there's Rabobank who are solid, and Minions should also be very competitive with the Kinoshita/Ahlstrand combination, combined with a couple of breakaway riders and good sprinters to pick up results in stage races. And having read your thoughts on the team above the relegation zone, I have no clue who I "fancy" to go down instead of them! Really curious to see how it plays out. We surely got no obvious candidate like last season, which is great for the competitiveness of the division.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
