Players are only told that they have received a weapon from the gunsmith.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
jandal7 wrote:
Players are only told that they have received a weapon from the gunsmith.
thank you for the quick clarification
In that case my theory that knockout would have had him mafia killed as soon as he received his weapon goes out the window.
Hopefully the gunsmith would have given trek a weapon as soon as his mason claim went uncontested as he is the only person who is unanimously agreed as 100% townie so far.
That said as the weapon never expires unless you use it there is still the possibility that knockout received his weapon very early in the game and the gunsmith is no longer alive.
anyway back to building that post I said I'd make to try and clear some of the suspicions around myself.
Apologies for not saying anything today guys. I came down with a fever and I think I have strep throat, so I've been bedridden most of the afternoon and my headache is kind of making it hard to concentrate.
Tomorrow morning I'll have to get up for a doctor's appointment so hopefully I'll feel good enough to analyze stuff then before the day is over. I've only briefly skimmed everything until now, and I'm going back to bed. Sorry again.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Bikex wrote:
@Raziz: You see my suspection of you has nothing to do with you posting much. Also I think you only started posting more, after someone said posting only little makes you suspicious iirc.
That was me whilst trying to fend off knockout's attempts to lynch me, seeing as Raziz is now dead it may seem trivial to point this out but I was right to ask a fellow townie to engage more.
If you re-read the game you will realise how much I have done to try and promote a healthy discussion in the town in an attempt to try and find the mafia.
I do not have time to make a long response for a couple hours as I'm going on a ride, but at the moment I believe it is is crucial that the gunsmith reveals themselves if they are alive.
Also, if anybody wants to make a CC claim it should be now.
In a couple hours I'll give all my thoughts on strategy.
Croatia14 wrote:
8 people left, 2 mafia guys - putting together the information we got from jseadog and the ideas I think I figured out on my own there are 2 candidates on the terrorist role: Bikex, weirdskyfan64 and Ian Butler. For the godfather role possible candidates are wider spread of course, I only count me and trek completely out of that circle right now.
From the game so far I assume Jseadog was, in fact, detective. That means I was wrong about you Croatia, and I can only now assume you are pro-town.
As for Raziz' death, I think it is pretty obvious why he died. This is what Jseadog said before he died:
Trusting Raziz, Croatia14 & TheManxMissile
Meaning the mafia went with an easy kill, because who would now still doubt Raziz, one of the three on Jseadog's trust-list.
I've believed TMM to be pro-town a long time, now, and I'm glad to see it confirmed.
I also trust baseballlover312 right now but as events unfold that could always change. I am suspicious of anyone that voted to lynch me so sammyt93 may need to be looked into.
This makes me believe that Jseadog trusted BBL on his actions only, and not on a night-read, but I could be wrong.
So assuming Jseadog was detective (is there a possiblity he's not?), this is who we can trust:
- Trek
- Croatia
- TMM
This is a good list. That means these are the remaining suspects:
- Bikex
- BBL
- Sammy
- WSF
- Myself
I think the above three carry the biggest burden right now, as no one (or practically no one) will doubt their intentions. Therefore I'd be interesting that these five get analysed by the three pro-towns.
As for myself, I'm leaning towards WeirdSkyFan. Why? He voted to lynch Jseadog earlier and he's been very silent.
Knockout focused most of his energy on Sammy, which kind-of clears Sammy, but I'm not so sure. Could be well played protection. Maybe the mafia goon was protecting his godfather this elaborate way?
I kind of assume knockout was mafia goon. Unless Jseadog investigated him twice and was certain he was detective. Any other thoughts on that?
I lynched jseadog because I looked at what other people said about how he was acting suspiciously, looked through his posts and saw that he had a habit of turning on the defensive as soon as he was accused and turning on others. I chose not to trust that- maybe I should have done.
At the moment, I’m not sure who to trust. I still trust Bikex, even though he lynched me, and also Sammy and to a lesser extent Ian.
I’m still not sure about Croatia, but I’m not climbing into the lynch bandwagon yet.
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic) "... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
From the game so far I assume Jseadog was, in fact, detective. That means I was wrong about you Croatia, and I can only now assume you are pro-town.
As for Raziz' death, I think it is pretty obvious why he died. This is what Jseadog said before he died:
Trusting Raziz, Croatia14 & TheManxMissile
You can't be sure about that completely sadly. Remember it is very much likely that jseadog didn't doublecheck everyone, which could mean that all of the from jseadog mentioned could still be the godfather, which is 1/2 mafia roles leftover. Anyway: I hope you also consider me as a save townie now from the other action you realized here.
@all:
Additionally: trek not only had his trustworthy mason-role, he also pushed hard towards lynching knockout. Which bikex by the way didn't do, so don't take too much glory out of dropping his name. Trek should be pretty save.
@bikex:
Yeah surely knockout wanted to hide that I'm part of the mafia with his comment about not knowing what to think about me.
I didn't say it has to be like that, but I could very well seeing that happen. Cause knckout certainly had to have an opinion on you as he being part of the mafia knew who you are. His statements though are not ones too value too high because I think he knew that he'd die when he gave them, still it offers ideas for some interesting thoughts.
You try to fit everything that happens into your weird story of me being part of the mafia.
If you are talking about my constantly modified thoughts that I constantly shared transparently with all here - you have to admit that they haven't been too inaccurate so far.
I was just generally adressing your incapability to look over your own horizon and question your own opinions sometimes.
If you didn't realize that I'm doing that constantly i don't even know where to start Maybe it's just that you don't realize that because you have been one of the first on the list for several days now. I even offered different causes why you may not be lynche. But for me the pro-lynch side is still the longest at your person.
Another cause may be that I am the person who most frequently spits out their complete thoughts on the discussion. From what I've realized though that hasn't been the worst of ideas, as it led out several discussion points, not only on TMM (my opinion on him visibly changed a lot over the last days especially with jseadogs calls, if you realized) and you.
It would have been an insanely idiotic move by the mafia to kill any of us two, if we are both townies.
I disagree. It would've been an easy way to spread the discussion, and would've almost certainly knocked another town member out in the day role from my guesses.
So far we did well to keep the focus away from them with our arguing.
Besides no, it didn't. Knockout very well also appeared on the horizon of me in terms of his reactions to our clash. We learned about several other people in their reactions. And, what maybe very important, the town learned a lot about you and me.
I'd say the gunsmith could even come out and claim his role before he is killed.
That makes me really wonder. What is the point of doing that? Nobody benefits from this. Besides the mafia, who has an easy way of killing the gunsmith, whose weapons may be the savior of the town if handed out wisely. A gunsmith reveiling himself without using his role for good is a lost opportunity of the town.
And we don't get confirmation about who is the gunsmith. Unlike the mason role it is very hard to check the gunsmith role. Anybody could claim it.
Another thing: We don't even know whether the gunsmith is still alive. While knckout claimed that he got the weapon last night, I wonder why he was so precise on that. Maybe just a sneaky lie, and knockout got the weapon far earlier --> hence he could be dead right now (Raziz, earlier lynched people). I think we have more benefit on whether the mafia doesn't know whether the gunsmith is still alive (and who) or not.
a neutral question (if you allow):
sammy and bbl seemed kind of trustworthy to me so far, but at least sammy has also risen some doubts in my books lately.
can you explain that on sammy please? I recognized your opinion on sammy switched a lot - so may you explain how that occured, especially in combination with the conversation of sammy and knockout over the last days?
@weirdskyfan: did you follow the discussions? in that sense: would you mind commenting on what you think of especially trek? and, of course, all other non mentioned names of you yet (bbl, TMM). And please tell me what raises your suspicions on me, so that I may be able to clear them up.
There are a 50% chance of you getting revealed when firing the weapon.
Just realized this on the gunsmith. That makes it very interesting. The gunsmith even gets revealed then if he's already dead right?
I kind of assume knockout was mafia goon. Unless Jseadog investigated him twice and was certain he was detective. Any other thoughts on that?
Interesting thoughts by Ian indeed. I didn't think about that yet. But from how jseadog played the game I am pretty sure that knockout was a "first read". Still an interesting alternative (though less likely) to think that knockout was the godfather. He certainly was not the terrorist.
Also an interesting point by bikex on jseadogs early game behaviour. For me I wouldn't really call it a strong rant on lynching somebody, but he still has a point that there might be a slight possibility. I am not sure whether that was either tactics, just shooting into the blue or really an issue that may lead towards thinking he may not be the detective, but I doubt it was the later. His strong believe in me when almost nobody did and his obsession to suddenly kill knockout convince me that he was indeed the detective.
On another note: as many people now commented on this I assume the confused cop died already silently
did you follow the discussions? in that sense: would you mind commenting on what you think of especially trek? and, of course, all other non mentioned names of you yet (bbl, TMM). And please tell me what raises your suspicions on me, so that I may be able to clear them up.
Right then. First of all, I've already said I think BBL and TMM are pro-town. That was part of the reason why you strike me as suspicious- you went for TMM straight away without any real reasoning in my view. In fact, you said yourself that the reason you chose to lynch him was because that was better than lynching no-one.
As for Trek, I'm still unsure.
Edited by weirdskyfan64 on 15-10-2017 18:47
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic) "... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
weirdskyfan64 wrote:
Right then. First of all, I've already said I think BBL and TMM are pro-town.
Forgot that and couldn't be bothered to search back, sorry for that.
That was part of the reason why you strike me as suspicious- you went for TMM straight away without any real reasoning in my view.
Somebody had to start. I admit that acuusations weren't as substantial as the current discussions, but that is the game. You gain information the later you are in the game.
In fact, you said yourself that the reason you chose to lynch him was because that was better than lynching no-one.
It was one of the reasons indeed. And I still agree that lynching somebody would've been better than lynching nobody in that case; that stands for me for most cases.
As for Trek, I'm still unsure.
I just can't understand that in any case. If you followed the discussion halfway properly there is no way in having no opinion on trek.
Additionally you talke in your very spare response more about my thoughts on TMM then on the questions I asked to you, which I don''t understand. Still a lot of questions are left for me:
Do you have any reasoning for your points on TMM/bbl? Or did I miss a post of you?
How can you have no opinion on trek, when he is the person we potentially know most about?
What do you think you did so far that helped the town?
Why do you think bikex currently votes to lynch you? Can you offer anything in defense?
Are you a normal townie?
The first thing I'd like to post is the statistical likelihood of each player being mafia, it gives us a base to work off at least. Since 7/8 players seem to agree that I'm townie, I hope we can remove me from discussions, that means that of the other 7 players, 2 are mafia, since Jesadog implied that he had investigated Croatia and TMM, we will assume that they cannot be the terrorist. This means that:
Player
Terrorist Chance
GF Chance
Maf Chance
Bikex
20%
14%
34%
Croatia14
0%
14%
14%
sammyt93
20%
14%
34%
Ian Butler
20%
14%
34%
weirdskyfan64
20%
14%
34%
TheManxMissile
0%
14%
14%
baseballlover312
20%
14%
34%
Croatia with only a 14% chance and his actions have seemed really genuine, if a bit accusatory, so I have chosen to trust him, however TMM I'm not as sure about for reasons below, that makes our list (in alphabetical order)
BBL
Bikex
Ian
Sammy
TMM
WSF
After reading through the thread again, I have analysed each players potential to be mafia, I've tried to look for signs of the mafia in how they act compared to normal, but since many of these are first-time players it's always hard to judge, also because some of Knockout's plans may still be in use by them (names are in alphabetical order)
Bikex, I'm not sure about. Croatia has had a long-standing argument with him but honestly no clue, he hasn't done anything that would make me identify him as mafia or town, a possible third lynch for me.
BBL made a suspicious post at the start, but he has made constructive posts and mostly made the same mistakes as the town without bandwagonning often but he also hasn't posted too often. Hard to call but I'm tempted to say Townie if pushed.
Ian seems very non-committal, he airs suspicions but is tentative to make a move, it seems like the sort of play somebody would make to be regular but stay under the radar. A good example is this post: https://pcmdaily.c...st_1264670
Where he lists every player but never accuses, he doubts everyone just a little bit, never too much, to quote him "Isn't it a bit too perfect?" This is a pretty good strategy for the mafia to avoid suspicion and nobody has really called Ian out (aside from the gifs ). imo he's very suspicious right now.
Sammy's arguments with Knockout make him seem clean but there's potential it's a smart move by the mafia to confirm one when the other dies. Although he does write very long posts on his phone which is a plus and he was willing to analyse the game broadly, often. So right at the current moment I'd like to trust Sammy.
TMM hasn't really contributed anything, he spammed at the start and felt kinda like Waghlon as GF last game and hasn't been helpful at all, however, he's not the Terrorist.
WSF just seems like he hasn't had time to read the whole discussion but then again, his activity and posts are very different to last game and it's not necessarily a bad idea to act so suspicious that you seem like you can't possibly be mafia, in his favour he did doubt Knockout at one point but then again, he doubted everybody.
---
It's also worth noting that we can only afford 1 incorrect lynch (in short, this is a very dire situation) barring a doctor save.
So we have 3 lynches left, who's most suspicious to me?
Of those 6, Ian, WSF, TMM and Bikex are the four most suspicious for me, although we can only vote three of them, so it's tough to quite know which and we may have to rely on opinions of the town and how they act in the next couple days.
I know I'm making the choice to put Croatia, Sammy & BBL as above suspicion but if some people aren't put above suspicion we'll have no chance of catching the mafia and everything is a risk at this point.
---
At the moment I'd suggest that our strategy going ahead is that everybody votes between Ian, TMM, WSF and Bikex, I'm not entirely sure which of them is most likely to be mafia but unless anybody has some major reasons for somebody else to be included I think we should say that this is our voting strategy for the remainder of today:
1. Everyone must vote.
2. Unless we receive a valid claim to add somebody else, nobody should vote for somebody other than Ian, WSF, TMM or Bikex.
I will hold my vote to the end of the day, because it's conceivable that the mafia may try to waste a day by making a tie, so I'll be there around the deadline to prevent that.
After today I think we should continue voting those 4 and just aim to be lucky and get the right two.
Is that plan agreeable to everybody?
This is simply my thoughts and suggestions so feel free to doubt them as it's so hard to be correct but I we need to at least have a set endgame plan settled on soon.
And finally, it's a really long post, so sorry if there any errors.
Additional to that post which was a suggestion for our general plan, I'd like to suggest the plans for any special roles:
CC: You don't really matter, if you want to claim sure, post your results even but we'll have no reason to believe you so do whatever.
Gunsmith: You must claim today if you are alive! If you can give out a gun to a townie it will change the game, as we then can get one more kill that can perhaps be decisive but it's important that you claim so that we know exactly who is the gunsmith and who handed out the gun. If you claim on a day later than today, you will be very suspicious.
Doctor: Take your secret to the grave. The mafia can still play hide and seek with a dead man if they don't know who he is and it's hard to verify a doctor claim. Even if you are going to be lynched, don't claim because we will not believe you, unless of course there is important information you need to pass on (like if the doctor save earlier was on either WSF, Ian, TMM or bikex but not if it was on somebody not suspicious) so that we can lynch you (because you might still be lying) but at least we'll know one of them is innocent when you are confirmed townie. Otherwise you're doing well if you're alive, so keep at it.
I agree with the plan mostly. I don't think that we should rule bbl out though right now, he is a person that could've contributed a little bit more too. In general though I agree that everybody should vote, that is very important.
I heavily disagree with your Gunsmith post though. He shouldn't reveal himself, but better silently send another weapon out. It would be better if he gives out a weapon silently, if it's then used he will most likely get revealed anyway, so that we won't fall to a trick of a fake gunsmith.
Croatia14 wrote:
I agree with the plan mostly. I don't think that we should rule bbl out though right now, he is a person that could've contributed a little bit more too. In general though I agree that everybody should vote, that is very important.
True, I'm not sure about either BBL or Sammy (honestly I'd like to kill everybody and be the last man left when you get to that point ) but we've got 3 kills left, 4 with doctor luck or a gun, so not quite sure how we can fit killing BBL in there.
Croatia14 wrote:
I heavily disagree with your Gunsmith post though. He shouldn't reveal himself, but better silently send another weapon out. It would be better if he gives out a weapon silently, if it's then used he will most likely get revealed anyway, so that we won't fall to a trick of a fake gunsmith.
My worry is that somebody will receive a weapon, then Player X will tell us that he sent it but Player Y will contest that, while otherwise we will know for certain who sent it (and if we have two claims, one can send it to me and the other can send it to you, so we will be able to confirm one and lynch/shoot the other the next day).
However I can see your logic too, as he could possibly get two guns out otherwise.
In either case, we should make sure we clearly state who the gun should be sent to tonight if there is a gunsmith able to give one out, so that the doctor can protect the receiving player.
@trek: I'm almost sure that either you (most likely if you are pretty much confirmed good) or me (I know I'm a townie, but also from an objetive view that should be clear right now) are getting killed tonight.
also: we just can't trust anybody that claims to be the gunsmith anyway - even if somebody comes now and says: "I am the gunsmith, I'll hand a weapon to trek tonight" and gets protected by the doctor it still could be somebody different that gave the weapon to you if you receive one. We just have no benefit in knowing who "pretends" to be the gunsmith, as we can't achieve a point of proof. So my standpoint is that the only benefitting side would be the mafia.
But you are right, the later the gunsmith claims his role now the more suspicious he might be. But I prefer the gunsmith to keep his secret until the end of the game.
Btw: can the gunsmith hand a weapon to himself?
you are taking the standpoint that the doctor is still alive - but who knows? (that was not meant to state that we should discuss that, as that may only help the mafia on who to kill) - The only thing I can do is to encourage the doctor to save trek and otherwise keep quiet in terms of his saving knowledge as it is almost certain that jseadog was the saved one so far...
(and if we have two claims, one can send it to me and the other can send it to you, so we will be able to confirm one and lynch/shoot the other the next day)
forgot: that is definitely the way to go if we havve claims
Croatia14 wrote:
@trek: I'm almost sure that either you (most likely if you are pretty much confirmed good) or me (I know I'm a townie, but also from an objetive view that should be clear right now) are getting killed tonight.
...
you are taking the standpoint that the doctor is still alive - but who knows? (that was not meant to state that we should discuss that, as that may only help the mafia on who to kill) - The only thing I can do is to encourage the doctor to save trek and otherwise keep quiet in terms of his saving knowledge as it is almost certain that jseadog was the saved one so far...
Statistically there are 7 possible doctors, given there are 5 alive players who could be doctor (not me or the two mafia) and Raziz and Ryant who died since the last doctor save (Jesadog and Knockout too but for obvious reasons it can't be them). So there is a 5/7 or a 71% chance that the doctor is still alive.
This makes it risky for the mafia to attack either you or me because if the mafia has to try to avoid the doctor as well because chances are he is alive.
Croatia14 wrote:
also: we just can't trust anybody that claims to be the gunsmith anyway - even if somebody comes now and says: "I am the gunsmith, I'll hand a weapon to trek tonight" and gets protected by the doctor it still could be somebody different that gave the weapon to you if you receive one. We just have no benefit in knowing who "pretends" to be the gunsmith, as we can't achieve a point of proof. So my standpoint is that the only benefitting side would be the mafia.
But you are right, the later the gunsmith claims his role now the more suspicious he might be. But I prefer the gunsmith to keep his secret until the end of the game.
If somebody claims to be gunsmith but isn't then the real gunsmith should counterclaim immedietly because catching a mafia will be a huge success and worth losing the gunsmith's anonymity and we can confirm by having one send to me and the other to you and the doctor toss a coin on who to save out of you and me.
That said, I can see why the gunsmith might want to keep his anonymity but if so
Alright guys, again, I'm feeling like crap so I'll make this quick.
I still think a proper CC claim if possible would be nice. Again, we can be pretty sure from results that Jdog was the detective, but we can't be 100% sure he didn't get those results by chance (again, very unlikely, but not impossible). It's not a necessity, but wouldn't hurt.
I'm still very against doctor claiming himself, all that does is make him a target, and if he's having to protect himself, he becomes useless. As for the gunsmith, I also don't think there's a need for him to claim his role if he's still alive. I agree with Croatia's reasoning there.
I also tend to agree with the analysis of TMM possibly being the godfather. I hadn't thought about it until you mentioned it, but his similarity to Waghlon's play last game is almost uncanny. And just like last game, no way to check him again as the detective is dead.
Still, there are more suspicious people out there for me. Obviously trek is town at this point, as am I. I believe Croatia is innocent at this point, which still puts Bikex in a bad light, but it could just be a misunderstanding. I trust Sammy, especially because of how he feuded with knockout, and it seemed to aggressive to be a clever play (obviously it didn't work if it was). Ian seems to be a bit suspicious with he play thus far, but also as a first time player many of his confusing actions make sense. WSF is fairly suspicious to me, but I also recall similar events in previous mafia games where we judged based on activity, and we were wrong.
At this point if I had to put money on it, I'd probably say Bikex is mafia and either TMM is godfather, or Ian/WSF have the other mafia role. Not extremely sure though.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
But first:
This is a pretty good strategy for the mafia to avoid suspicion and nobody has really called Ian out (aside from the gifs 
