@kandesbunzler: While we agree on a lot of findings, I think your statements are quite weak. You seem to be very careful with your reads, a lot of times calming the fire of your statements while speaking them out.
Also I'm surprised that you do in the terms of taking risks consider defending ryant as a standalone as a medium risk, as at some point the participants were quite unanomous on that ryant and me should be mafia.
In that context I also massively disagree with your statement that knockout has taken a lot of risks and has been the "by far most analytical person". While he has been that on day one and started day 3 well (which he had to as him and Ian clearly started the day as suspects #1&2), he's been disfunctional and quite inactive on day 2. At least he stated his opinion strongly, but as he said himself he did not play his "usual" analytical self.
While it's fine that he admitted that and I rate his attempt in pushing the discussion forward, that is what he had to do for not being the major lynch target today.
Closing just a quick overview of my categorization, as I don't know whether I have time for a post today.
100% town
hillis
leaning towards town
df_trek
jseadog
kandesbunzler
suspicious
trekbmc
knockout
bbl
very suspicious
Ian Butler
My vote for now switches to lynch Ian Butler, eventhough I condemn trekbmc's lack of reaction and if Ian finds convincing posts I may come back to lynch trekky.
Note that the main reason for this change is that I'm not sure when to be able to post a longer explanatory post again and thus change from pressuring to my highest suspicion.
Good points croatia. I propably still tend to overrate bbls Aquarius vote a bit. Maybe i should change it towards a rather nullish read on him. doesnt change the fact that id be uncomfortable with a lynch today. One to watch more closely but probably not a lynch candidate on this day.
Ian defended ryant but not strongly which imo adds to the suspicion against him. People who believed in ryants mafia allignment arguably had a reason to remain rather quiet (eventhough it wasnt good), he however just made a very short / soft defense and went hiding again without trying to derail the vote to someone else (e.g. you) or making a proper case against it.
Kanzler: I disagree a bit on your take on croatias day two action. I feel like the cases of ryant and him were so closely connected that it made lots of sense for him to defend ryant heavily no matter if he is town or mafia. I think day 1 and 3 analysis might be more interesting about him which you left out in your post.
Also you're probably a bit wrong with stating that i made a medium to high risk play at the beginning. I have a bit of a reputation for the way i play and there never really was a big risk of being day 1 lynched for me. (Not that you could have known)
Is that list an overview of your current opinions or do we have to combine it with other thoughts by you to get your current reads?
With that post I tried to figured out what I think at the moment (also for myself), but as stated in that post I am uncertain about many people. I know there's no "xy certainly is mafia" in it, but I just don't have a clear read right now. That's why I want to hear more from like most of the others.
Guys I just wrote up a fricking essay all morning and then accidentally clicked on the side screenshot and lost it all. I'll try to redo it, lest this be called a mafia tell that I haven't explained anything.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
As far as my own suspicion, I've said my piece. Anything I say now defending my own actions would be said by townie or mafia - I said what I felt and accused a mafia member. All I know is that calling out Aquarius when I did as mafia would be a strange gamble, considering for it to be of value as a trust builder on day 1, Aquarius would have to not be lynched, and I would still have to outlast him later in the game if it came down to it. Doesn't make much sense.
I'll be quicker since I already lost this post once and I don't have all day.
First movement was to lynch kandes, which was a mafia tell to me, since it basically just meant getting an easy target out of the way. I was partially right - Aquarius was mafia, but Sammy was town.
In the same vein, trek starts the lynch train on hillis for inactivity. This is joined by Ian and ryant fairly quickly.
Note here what I consider a mafia tell - Ian votes for hillis for inactivity. Hillis speaks. Ian then makes 3 posts defending himself, but makes no attempt to change his vote even though his reasoning is now obsolete. That's pretty suspicious to me. After this we have a period of accusations, with tons of people getting votes. Of note to me is only that both the masons picked df_trek.
In the end, hillis goes awol again, leading to a kandes lynch vote that puts him in the driver's seat to be lynch, and then jdog jumps on. By now, trek, who started this train, has posted less recently than hillis, but he's escaped suspicion. I don't know if that's a mafia tell for anyone, but it sure is some stupid reasoning. Of course, that is until Aquarius of all people calls him out on it. How you view this probably depends on how you view my actions. If you think I called out Aquarius as a mafia diversion, that sure implicates Aquarius doing the same thing with trek here, doesn't it, since he was an unlikely lynch. If not, it means Aquarius didn't want to be accused of bandwagoning, and voted for someone llow profile not to attract attention. Since I know I'm innocent, I favor that explanation, but trek's silence hasn't made it easy.
Next we have the campaign for the masons to be revealed. This one could go either way, so I don't think it's much of a tell. Croatia started it, and it has it's drawbacks and benefits for both sides. For one, it gives the town two people to trust, and lowers the chance of mislynching. For the mafia, it tell you who they are and makes them targets, as marco found out last night. Personally, I usually advise to avoid mason claims until they have a really good hunch. But in this case, Marco was right, since it helped save hillis. That being said, Aquarius was in favor of it, which is of note.
I think Croatia has a mafia tell there. His appeal for mason reveal was fine, but then he makes it seems as though it's only positive, and uses this to defend Aquarius. How of course, could you be bad if you vote for the masons, and vice versa. You see this sort of issue framing in politics, and you can see it in mafia too - take a complicated issue and make it seem like a clear cut one instead. It looks pretty suspicious to me.
By now, hillis seems like the likely lynch vote when I start the Aquarius train. At this point, I still thought the hillis train was pretty baseless, and Aquarius's dodgy and inconsistent language struck me as a mafia member still feeling out a strategy on day one. This combined with his attempted kandes lynching, and with my faulty belief that said lynching was in cahoots with Sammy, led me to lynch.
Knockout quickly posted a long analysis that backed me up, and it's at this point we get the mason reveal. That's important because it means that while Knockout and I went against the grain for Aquarius, everyone beyond that was going with the grain, since hillis was potentially exonerated without a mason counter claim.
Knockout then made his vote official, followed by jdog. Ian quickly comes in to lynch Aquarius without any explanation, and that puts him in the lead. Another possible mafia tell here? I don't want to blame Ian if he's actually just having time constraints, but this sure seems like a bandwagon move save himself from suspicion when the tides turned against Aquarius. He doesn't give any explanation for staying on hillis before, and now doesn't give one for the change, at least until much later. I actually agree with Croatia here for calling him out - perhaps a townie tell to counter his mafia one.
Ryant also had crazy erratic behavior here. First a lynch vote for no one, then lynching df_trek only because he really, really doesn't want Aquarius to get lynched. I know he was innocent, but I'm still flabbergasted by the whole situation. Maybe to avoid bandwagoning? But he gives little analysis for his opinions. Anyway, I guess that's a null topic anyway.
At this point, Aquarius lynch seems imminent. Marco puts the nail in as time runs out. Note that kandes comes out right before and gives the same explanation and vote as Aquarius. A weird time to do so, since he apparently think Aquarius is very suspicious. This sort of compromising and agreeing but not going through with it is a mafia tell to me. df_trek piles on, and Aquarius is lynched.
Night comes and we find out Aquarius is mafia, only for Sammy to be killed over night. However, going back, it seems only I was focused on their relationship in any way, with mentions from knockout and suspicion for Jdog. Everyone after that was basically a bandwagon lynch vote, or saying his language was weird (which it was). So that doesn't tell as much as I thought it did. I still think Sammy might have been a lynch target, but probably not as easily as I though, so it's not as strange of a kill.
I hold to the fact that now, as the ryant lynch train gets started with Marco, he's already dug himself a hole, and it only gets worse.
Ian makes an argument against a ryant lynch, and in defense of trek because Aquarius called him out. Very, very interesting here. On one hand, I kind of agree with his logic. But to say it means trek is a "confirmed townie" is almost too definitive, as knockout points out. He also pretty much tells the town to forget anything about Sammy's kill. This is a mafia tell I think. I understand the perspective, but it was one of the only things we had to go on, so to discourage people from looking into it doesn't make sense. But he succeeded in diverting attention! That could be why knockout was on the wrong track, and he thus hasn't been killed.
The ryant train gets going, and Croatia's really the only one opposed fervently. I guess that can't really be a tell since ryant was in fact innocent. What is weird, is that he accuses df_trek of being too friendly to ryant, and uses that against him. He lynches Jdog though, who imo could be playing this game very well as a mafia member, but I have very little to base that on, since he hasn't given me any major tells. He goes with the flow, but stays active and does give enough analysis to not seem shallow or just bandwagoning. Of course, that could also just be him being a normal townie. That's why it would work. So I have no idea
Croatia got a few votes here, I think understandably considering his attitude towards the mason claim as a right/wrong issue. In fact, ryant lynches himself when Croatia has AS MANY votes as him. It's like once knockout voted for him, he just gave up. Seriously, I have no idea what he was doing. As a townie, there's no reason he would protect Croatia, like if they were both mafia or something. I'm at a loss. However, Croatia gives another town tell to me by calling out knockout's BS assessment of the Hillis train as a town tell. No idea how that makes sense given the supposed reasoning of the hillis train when trek had gone longer without posting. Almost a mafia tell for knockout too there, as if this was an indirect way of helping out trek (and they're both in on it).
From here, it's just harping on ryant. A mafia tell from Jdog perhaps by calling for the end of the day so soon. Didn't seem weird at the time because I too suspected ryant immensely, but looking back, there's really no reason a townie would seek the day ending early. It doesn't help us in any way. Croatia then calls out knockout's rashness again, which is another interesting point. No usual for him. Though again, ryant was as suspicious as anyone in mafia has ever been, and calling people a moron for think so was also ridiculous from Croatia. So to me it's a wash. Anybody is also better than Ian's lynch, where he says he doesn't want to avoid responsibility. What responsibility? No analysis on the day. More discussion about time constraints, which might be valid, but hey, saying something productive instead of elaborating on that might be useful. he says either Croatia or knockout might be mafia since they're arguing with each other. I mean, that's true, but... duh! That's how the game works.
Then we reach Day 3. Marco is killed, which was expected considering he's a mason. Tow waves then appear - lynching trek for inactivity, or lynching me for partially the same reason (since I was less active Day 2), and partially because people think the Aquarius lynch was a distraction. Df_trek votes for Ian, and Croatia expands on that vote. That's where we are now.
That that's my version of the story. Feel free to pick it apart as you all see fit.
So, overall, Ian Butler, Croatia, Kandesbunzler, knockout and Jdog all have what I consider mafia tell. Out of those, Croatia and knockout also have some major townie tendencies, which of course could be faked, but I'll take at face value for now. Kandes and Jdog made some weird calls and statements, but aren't overwhelmingly suspicious for me. Ian's the only one who, looking back, has been consistently suspicious to me. Either that, or lack of time has left him unfocused on the game. That could be, but I'm gonna call it like I see it for now.
Lynch Ian Butler
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
baseballlover312 wrote:
Ian makes an argument against a ryant lynch, and in defense of trek because Aquarius called him out. Very, very interesting here. On one hand, I kind of agree with his logic. But to say it means trek is a "confirmed townie" is almost too definitive, as knockout points out. He also pretty much tells the town to forget anything about Sammy's kill. This is a mafia tell I think. I understand the perspective, but it was one of the only things we had to go on, so to discourage people from looking into it doesn't make sense. But he succeeded in diverting attention! That could be why knockout was on the wrong track, and he thus hasn't been killed.
Interesting thought. Made me go through the sammys day 1 again:
- lynch votes because of inactivity/new players against kandes and jdog
#68 suspicious against jseadog mostly because of posts being "fluff"/deflective and a weak defense on me.
- criticizes ryant for his no lynch vote
#114 top targets: 1. jdog 2. df trek
So basically jdog is easily the one who would have benefitted the most from a sammy lynch.
I know why I changed to no lynch (see post #251). The situation regarding ian is similar: though I think ian is suspicious I am not willing to take the risk of a surprise lynch before the day is over.
Other reasons for not voting for ian at the moment are similar to the reasons I didn't vote for Aquarius and ryant though I suspected both:
1) I didn't see any need for yet another vote on them as it was obvious they would get lynched. Instead I wanted to keep pressure on other players I suspected (as croatia in day 2) or did want to get (more) action from (trek_bmc in day 1).
2) Obviously all I would get from jumping on the bandwagons late in the days would have been accusations of jumping on the bandwagons late in the days. Regarding the reasoning of point 1 and the several "x jumped on the y-train"-accusations I did (and do) not feel any need to get some of those for myself.
Regarding my other reasoning (post #259) I saw bbl, df_trek and trek_bmc as the other suspects apart from ian.
Looking at the vote count I tend to lynch trek_bmc at the moment, so knockout and hillis (the only one above suspicion) have a real choice between trek_bmc and ian at the moment. As stated above I tend to leave a vote apart from the mainstream not because I think they are wrong (I'm far from that, as stated) but because I want to keep focus on different suspects. This may also be an explanation for the "mafia tell" bbl saw on me.
jseadog
#48: First post: For most players I would probably qualify this post as long without content and a bit scummy but that is the type of post jseadog did all the time in past games so I'm not holding it against him.
#65: Nice consistency to his first post in terms of defending a guy (me) he considers to bring benefits to the town
#76: posts a vote count, says he has double-checked and it is wrong (Ryant changed his vote to me in #64). Could be honest mistake but also could be manipulation to let the hillis vote lead look larger? Any opinions on that?
#78: Again consistency to his previous vote of voting out weaker players
Verdict: Leaning townish.
I had jseadog as pretty townish so far. I noticed there were a couple of mafia tells in his game but i attributed them to him just playing his normal game as he usually has a few of those even when playing as town. I think i might have found another reason why i gave him a protown read:
Very first post:
"Since I was one the main guys involved in the whole thing knockout was talking about, I agree with him"
Second post:
"I really don't think lynching knockout is the right move considering how much benefit he brings to the town (unless we are getting played). However, he sparks discussion and brings debate to the thread which keeps it active which is certainly not something I would really expect from Mafia.
Third post:
"I contributed to discussion by saying why I thought knockout could be trusted and I also explained why I voted the way that I did."
Fourth post:
"I still think kandes is calling me out because I voted for him. He is saying I brought nothing while saying something but I was explaining why I thought knockout was a strong townie which is definitely something to add to the discussion."
#95:
"I do not like the fact that sammy has been targeting me from the start of this game. His reasons for lynching me fit exactly into what knockout said, that I play the game this way everytime."
also:
"really think [knockout] has a strong point here and that Aquarius was trying to protect himself by using an example that was not well thought out."
#135:
"I don't want to proclaim knockout as the leader of the town because he could be mafia but I really want to see what he thinks about everything at this point."
#158:
" We already essentially know that Marco & hillis are safe and I still think knockout can be trusted also."
#213:
"Marco & hillis are 2 names that come to mind. knockout comes to mind as well" (talking about confirmed townies)
These are a lot of posts - especially early - where he is linking himself to me. Especially in the early game that seemed like pretty much his only talking point. When we use the word "bandwaggoning" we usually describe votes but it looks quite a lot like he is bandwaggoning my opinions.
Now it may be that I'm seeing myself a bit too much as the center of the game here but i believe there would be a pretty good reason to do so if he were a mafia member:
It was pretty obvious from the very beginning that i would be a huge driver of the early discussion and it is easy psychology that you like people more who like you back. So by supporting me whenever possible he (if mafia) would make sure that he would more likely to be one of my town reads.
And i dont remember jseadog being strong in getting town reads in past games. When he was the detective in the game where i was in the mafia we noticed him as a likely candidate for the detective quite early because of how confident in his reads he was. I had not noticed that in this game so far but looking through his posts again it surprises me how early he was confident in my town role (i think most people that know me from past games should have had me as a nullish read for most of the first day). If someone of you has the time to check his previous games it would be very interesting to see how early he was confident about any town reads in those.
Also he uses his defense for me as an example of his contribution to the town multiple times on day one. That doesnt help us find the mafia and is no fingerpointing but he uses it as an example for his contribution. I think he tries to inflate how much he seems to contribute on other sides too: he posted four vote counts: #76, 97, #172, #203. While it is a nice thing to see and i appreciate it, it is no contribution towards helping to find the mafia.
There are other interesting parts about him:
#76: "We have a little over 1 day yet so I am considering a switch to Croatia but would like to get some more input from those that voted for hillis? More reasoning would be helpful."
Doesnt that go against what he wrote earlier about why he doesnt want me to get lynched? Croatia usually springs a lot of debate too? In fact of the participating players in this edition he might be the next most active players. ""I really don't think lynching knockout is the right move considering how much benefit he brings to the town (unless we are getting played). However, he sparks discussion and brings debate to the thread which keeps it active which is certainly not something I would really expect from Mafia. " You could replace my name with croatias name and it would still appear largely true.
On day 2: His vote is croatia but does nothing at all to convince the town that he is more likely mafia than ryant. Big red flag i guess.
- Sammyt night kill would benefit him the most (see previous post by me)
Verdict: I really should not have overlooked him so far. Lots of red flags. I definitely want to hear other opinions on this since the first part is heavily influenced by my perception of myself / my reputation. But I could very well see him be a part of the mafia now.
I want to remain with a no vote so far - mainly because i dont want to see a quickhammer on Ian just yet. If you dont like me staying off any waggons so far, consider this as a vote for Ian.
Roughly 24 hours till the end of the day and i'm unsure if i can add the other isolation rereads before that. kandes and Croatia seem to be in no danger of getting lynched today and will get a more detailed look by me on the next day while there is not much to say about trek. None of which I'd want to get lynched over Ian today as it stands.
A lot of posts (and long ones) from my last visit, I'll spend this evening to get an update on what happened.
another thing i want to figure out is which links there are between Ian and other players (haven't yet read if already treated today), because i remember that my points are quite individuals and not taking count there still a mafia couple.
@df_trek: Good idea. Can you please especially look for connections between jseadog and Ian?
I think that Ians vote for jseadog looks especially weak because of the way he reasoned it. Combined with the fact that he was already noticing that he would be the one to be in the spotlight, i could see it as a way to further shift jdog into protown classification.
After reading all of these (loooooooooooong) posts, i've made my mind up for now. And for me, im going with Lynch Ian Butler.
It was a hard choice this time around, still a bit shook by the whole ryant situation. I've been hanging back with the posting today, as i wanted to see the remaning townies talk it out. trek_bmcs lack of actitivy is something i don't like.
"Last Visit 07. April 2019 13:54"
I have also called him out by name in post #253, but yet he has not responded or given an opinion. And he can't hide behind "i've been away" as he has been online today. For me, this is could be a tactic from a mafia member. As we are on a Ian Butler lynch train right now. He might figure that if he just stays away, he won't draw any suspicion towards himself. And then, survives another day and get to kill at night. Being a confirmed mason, i might not survive the night, so im very keen on getting the most out of today. And i really really want trek_bmc to come forth and explain himself here.
This is roughly what I found by him on his posts (+ votes on him)
day 1:
lynch vote on hillis as inactive player yet (following trek)
knockout lynch him
replying to knockout accusations
advice to Croatia to give better motivation
jump on aquarius
day 2:
trek is almost 100% town
defend ryant
justify with croatia about bandwagoning
apologize right after jseadog called him, but says nothing particular
jump on ryant
day 3:
me pointing at him
knockout looks legit
lynch jseadog with the reason of suspicious situation about his vote on ryant in day 2
argue trekbmc, says all and nothing
me lynch him
croatia lynch him
bbl lynch him
hillis lynch him
being very very fast: what I noticed overall is that he never agreed something with still alive people if not trekbmc, and many times avoid to link himself with others by posts on his own person.
So in the (likely atp) scenario that he is going to be lynched:
if he is enrolled mafia - trek will face day 4 with a big magnifying glass over him, and he has finally to say something. Not being in a high risk zone until now saved his partner from defending him/misdirectioning. And to reply at knockout call, his lynch vote on day 3 is first time he argues on jseadog directly (the only other link between them is not direct: on day 2 Ian apologize that he was missing for long, right after that jseadog call him and trek to say something), imo the second one to check jointly to trek.
if he is enrolled townie - this post from beginning to here is fucked up
df_Trek wrote:
being very very fast: what I noticed overall is that he never agreed something with still alive people if not trekbmc, and many times avoid to link himself with others by posts on his own person.
So in the (likely atp) scenario that he is going to be lynched:
if he is enrolled mafia - trek will face day 4 with a big magnifying glass over him, and he has finally to say something.
Would someone who is super careful to avoid any links to other players announce that he his partner is a confirmed townie for little reason? Im not sure...
If ian is indeed mafia i would look at jdog as the most suspicious player. The distancing for very little reason today by ian with his vote for jdog coupled with jdogs vote for the seemingly-easy-to-lynch-trekky as alternative bandwaggon while trying to appear critical towards Ian (seriously both their vote posts would look very interesting if ian is mafia) doesnt look good to me.
Ive monitored the members online list the last hour a bit and didnt see any remaining players, the thread looks pretty much dead today, its 2 hours till the deadline iirc and ian announced that he wouldnt really defend himself so i dont think we miss out on much action/information if we end the day at this point.
lynch Ian Butler
I think it was pretty obvious that i would support his lynch and im now quickhammering him to avoid the risk of a last minute terrorist attack eventhough i suspect we might have gotten it already if he were indeed the terrorist.
Night 3:
Today the town had some discussions and by the final hours most jumped on the train to lynch Ian Butler, who had announced he'd be attempting to 100% a new game he'd bought and would not be coming to the town meetings for a few days. So maybe the intention wasn't to catch a mafioso, but if it was they would have failed - Ian was pro-town.
Dead:
Aquarius97
sammyt93
ryant
Marcovdw
Ian Butler
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Day 4:
Everyone awakens and by this point they are just waiting to see who is missing from the town meeting. But they don't have to wait, as baseballlover312 is hanging from a streetlight. Eurgh.
Dead:
Aquarius97
sammyt93
ryant
Marcovdw
Ian Butler
baseballlover312
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
It's time to lynch knockout I guess. I rethought his role and I absolutely hate 3 things.
1. I still think brining that doc theory up on the first day was not what a brownie would do at all.
2. His atypical behavior on day 2.
3. His comparable passive playing style in drawing accusations on day 3.
I can see trek and knockout being the duo. Especially thinking about how trek has been online on Skype all the time, they know each other quite well to coordinate, they could play it perfectly with two very different approaches where one really "proves" the other one giving a direction of how lynchs may be successful.
Also very interesting that they lynched bbl as he was quite high on my list.
