Étape Quinze | Bourg-en-Bresse - Culoz | 160km | Mountainous | Deux Cat. 3, un Cat. 2, deux Cat.1, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)
Well we haven't hit the Alps proper yet but that doesn't mean we can't have a mountain stage - we hit the Jura Massif will lots of smaller Cols before we ascend the Grand Colombier twice from two sides, one an Hors Catégorie and one a Cat. 1 ascent. I'm predicting a truce among the GC riders with a distinctly flat finish and still 4 deciding stages to go, and one tomorrow where the break should win by 4+ minutes. Then again, the second rest day is coming up...
It's a spectacular last 50km but two flat sections discourage GC assaults, though it's obviously very tough to predict what the GC looks like, and with basically two GC rest days coming up, the less Mountain TT inclined (van Garderen among others) may want to get some seconds on their rivals. You'll see nothing from the purer climbers unless an alliance forms with the two sections of flat after each ascent. However, we could see a Giro Stage 14 situation where someone is so focused on getting the time they end up being at the front, though that stage was a bit different. Anyway, these two climbs should give us plenty of entertainment from watching the break battling it out, and we could see a breakaway rider boosting himself up in GC, like that stage of the Giro in fact.
As I said a quite flat final kilometres after the tricky descent, so I'm guessing it's whoever is the least screwed over or plays it best from the break to take the stage. There could be some GC splits of Nibali, etc. assaults for Aru on the descent but I'm not sure it'll be much major.
***** The break
****
***
** Nibali, Contador, Bardet, Froome, Quintana, Valverde, Aru
* Alaphilippe, D. Martin, Landa, Poels, Fuglsang, Rosa, Izagirre, Pinot, Yates
(1/2 star as the break has such a high chance): Oher Climbers
Étape Seize | Moirans-en-Montagne - Berne | 209km | Lumpy | Un Cat. 4 et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)
A day for the tough sprinters - if they and their teams can be bothered. GC teams would likely want a break to go and so that would be the top option for the stage. This also finishes its last third in Switzerland as we prepare for two Swiss days coming up. And the finishing town is Bern - which just so happens to be very near the birthplace of a certain Swiss powerhouse riding his final Tour. No it's not Martin Elmiger - he was born in Hagedorn - it's SPARTACUS.
He could be seen animating the race or helping driving the peloton to catch the break before doing his thing and somehow winning. But does he still have the quality to do the latter? The last 5km are tough - why some sprinters won't care - and should provide some entertainment. Should be a break day. In terms of GC they should be able to relax - if Martin or another rider good up the hills wants some seconds they could launch an attack. It's tough to predict who does what in terms of breakaways but powerhouses such as Cummings and Cancellara could be very dangerous no matter if it's a late attack of BoTD.
***** The break (Cancellara)
****
*** Sagan, D. Martin, Alaphilippe, Mathews, Late attacker
** Valverde, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Rodriguez
* Nibali, Bardet, Quintana, Froome, Anyone else who's good on the day and can go up a hill
Rest Day | Berne
A chance for everyone to rest up and gain some energy back before tomorrow's spectacular ride to Finhaut Emosson. GC guys should be fully prepared for tomorrow as there shouldn't have been much sparring, in fact not even their domestiques with probably two break wins the last two days.
Étape Dix-Sept | Berne - Finhaut-Emosson | 185km | Mountainous | Deux Cat. 3, un Cat. 1, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)
An 100% Swiss stage with some typically stunning Swiss scenery to enjoy up the final two climbs - a picturesque setting for hopefully a great battle. The previous day's rest should see the GC guys fighting fit and hopefully some great battles up first the 13km Cat. 1 Col de la Forclaz and then the beautiful HC trek up to Finhaut. Whether this will be for the stage win as well is another matter, probably not if Froome is in yellow.
Wow. What a challenge! Both climbs are relentless. KM by KM Forclaz doesn't drop below 7%, and over 13km it averages out at almost 8%. We get 7kms of downhill after we crest Forclaz, some steep and some a bit more gentle. Then immediately we kick on up to Finhaut for 10.4km at 8.4%. It may be a battle of the break for the win, or maybe the GC guys can catch up as they duke it out? Will be make or break for the unproven 3 week recoverers, Porte the most obvious.
***** The break, Froome, Quintana, Contador
**** Aru, Nibali, Bardet
*** Pinot, Valverde
** Porte, van Garderen, Landa, Majka, Barguil, Rolland
* Yates, Meintjes, Poels, Rodriguez, Any other climber
Étape Dix-Huit | Sallanches - Megève | 17km | ITT (Medium Mountain)
OK I lied. It's not quite a Giro MTT but it's certainly one for the climbers, 17km, mostly uphill and certainly not going to win the race. It sounds cliched, but you could only lose your Tour here.
This should be one for the GC men, with the possible inclusion of Tom Dumoulin if he's still in the race and still fit (neither likely). The climb is fairly tough and so we should see a victory by someone who paces themselves and is just strong uphill and on the flats. So Froome.
***** Froome
**** Contador, Nibali, Quintana, van Garderen
*** Porte, Pinot, Aru
** Bardet, T. Dumoulin, Kelderman, Barguil
* Costa, Gesink, Mollema, All other guys still in the GC race, Some young doped Russian
Étape Dix-Neuf | Albertville - Mont Blanc | 146km | Mountainous | Un Cat. 2, deux Cat. 1, un HC, et le un sprint intermédiaire (duh)
The short, sharp mountain stages at the business end of the Tour have become a staple and a favorite of the organisation, and it's no surprise to find one here with two Cat. 1s, a Cat. 2 and a HC climb packed into 146km of the finest battles between the finest GC men in the world (except Chaves who isn't here), and Porte. We discover 2 new ways up La Forclaz, making it three in total this Tour, and the riders will be able to see the beautiful Mont Blanc all day before climbing it right at the end of this, the penultimate GC day
The HC Montée de Bisanne could well be a springboard for an attack such as Nibali's on stage 19 to La Toussuire last year. It's an incredibly tough climb which will cause a selection before the descent and summit finish on Mont Blanc. 12.4km at 8.2% is very difficult and could see a flurry of attacks from GC places 5-10, as well as a typical Rolland long-range assault.
La Bettex to Mont Blanc starts very tough, loosens briefly and ends tough. It should be a very entertaining GC duel and hopefully reshuffling. The scenery will be beautiful but the riders won't be noticing lest they lose focus, lose seconds, lose everything. Some daring opportunists will then try and gain everything before the road to Morzine tomorrow.
***** Froome, Quintana, Contador
**** Bardet, Nibali, Aru, Pinot
*** Valverde, van Garderen, Landa, Majka, Barguil, Rolland, Meintjes
** Yates, The break, D. Martin
* Any other climber
Lol, no time for 20 and 21. See ya with them on the weekend (yes maybe after stage one) along with hopefully some rider stuff!
But yeah there really is 
