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ICL21 - Previews & Statistics
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| Ripley |
Posted on 08-07-2022 10:24
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
Joined: 25-11-2014
PCM$: 300.00
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Ripley's sloppy 2021 CT Prediction
I came up with the simple formula a while ago and it doesn't seem to do worse than more complex formulas. WAVG6 is simply calculated by weighing the AVGs of the top 6 riders per team (6x, 5x,4x, 3x, 2x, 1x /21). (R 20 = WAVG 20, Rel. = Relegated)
| PR 20 | R 20 | | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | WAVG | | 1 | 9 | 9 | Guinness | 78.3 | 77.8 | 77.4 | 77.3 | 76.4 | 76.0 | 77.58 | | 2 | New | - | La Vie Claire | 80.2 | 78.7 | 77.3 | 74.9 | 73.1 | 73.0 | 77.51 | | 3 | 18 | 3 | Shell | 78.2 | 77.8 | 77.3 | 77.1 | 76.1 | 75.0 | 77.42 | | 4 | New | - | BNZ | 78.6 | 78.3 | 77.1 | 75.5 | 75.3 | 74.9 | 77.31 | | 5 | 14 | 10 | Millenium | 78.4 | 77.4 | 76.9 | 76.8 | 76.4 | 74.7 | 77.28 | | 6 | Rel. | - | Peugeot | 78.9 | 76.7 | 76.6 | 76.6 | 76.4 | 76.2 | 77.24 | | 7 | Rel. | - | Santos | 77.9 | 77.2 | 76.9 | 76.9 | 76.5 | 76.4 | 77.20 | | 8 | 15 | 18 | Latvijas | 77.9 | 77.2 | 76.9 | 76.4 | 76.3 | 76.3 | 77.10 | | 9 | New | - | Ziggo | 78.7 | 76.9 | 76.4 | 76.3 | 76.2 | 74.8 | 77.07 | | 10 | 12 | 16 | Tierra | 77.6 | 77.5 | 76.7 | 76.5 | 76.4 | 75.8 | 77.05 | | 11 | 8 | 13 | VisitUkraine | 77.3 | 77.2 | 77.0 | 77.0 | 76.0 | 75.7 | 76.98 | | 12 | 6 | 12 | Pedal Africa | 77.6 | 77.2 | 76.8 | 76.5 | 75.5 | 75.5 | 76.90 | | 13 | New | - | Euskaltel | 77.5 | 77.2 | 76.8 | 76.3 | 74.6 | 74.5 | 76.70 | | 14 | 10 | 15 | EF x Palace | 77.0 | 76.5 | 76.5 | 76.4 | 76.3 | 75.7 | 76.57 | | 15 | 7 | 6 | Magnum | 77.5 | 76.4 | 76.2 | 76.1 | 75.3 | 75.0 | 76.46 | | 16 | 17 | 19 | ICBC | 76.7 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 75.7 | 75.6 | 75.5 | 76.27 | | 17 | 20 | 20 | Cadejo | 77.4 | 76.1 | 75.8 | 75.6 | 75.4 | 75.2 | 76.23 | | 18 | New | - | DFK | 76.6 | 76.0 | 75.9 | 75.9 | 75.9 | 75.6 | 76.11 | | 19 | Rel. | - | Vegeta | 76.5 | 76.3 | 76.0 | 75.4 | 75.3 | 74.9 | 76.01 | | 20 | New | - | Proximus | 76.0 | 76.0 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 75.2 | 75.1 | 75.78 |
This year Guinness comes out top, though I feel their top 6 is a bit TT heavy to justify it. But certainly a much better squad than last season, when WAVG only rated them 9th. They are followed by newcomer La Vie Claire, their top star is Durbridge and TT specialists generally have a tough time scoring well, but he's the best in the world. Like last season Shell is predicted in 3rd place and I'm sure they'll disappoint us yet again, WAVG just doesn't seem to work for this team.
In 4th the next newcomer, BNZ, who do have 4 very good riders. They are somewhat lucky that WAVG ignores most of the squad, they have some of the weakest domestiques around. Behind them are Millenium, who've developed well since last year. The two relegated teams Peugeot and Santos don't find themselves in the first row when it comes to promotion candidates.
Latvijas also improved nicely since last season. Ziggo are rated 9th, mostly thanks to Nerz. Tierra del Fuego and VisitUkraine are also stronger than last season. In fact, the whole CT is once again stronger than last season. Pedal Africa proves this, their WAVG rose by 0.5 but they remain in 12th. Newcomer Euskaltel starts in 13th. EF have made a smaller jump than most teams while Magnum took a plunge due to a complete change in tactics, starting over with a team of young talents.
ICBC remain more or less unchanged, Cadejo have improved, but their strict regional focus prohibits a larger jump. At the bottom we find the last two newcomers as well as, shockingly, a team which was just relegated from the World Tour, Vegeta.
Mind you, some teams have a lot more depth than others and WAVG totally ignores it. La Vie Claire is ranked 2nd despite having only 4 riders with an AVG over 74.0, Vegeta has 14, DFK even 16. That is bound to make a difference.
Generally, I have very little confidence in my formula this year. The top 3 all look weaker to me than predicted and many of the lower ranked teams have a nice balance and/or depth. What mostly stands out is that the overall quality is very high: Back in 2018 my team promoted with a WAVG of 76.27 (5th highest that year), now ICBC is only 16th with the same WAVG.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 08-07-2022 10:38
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Quality has definitely gone up, my team is a better version of the one from two seasons ago and is rated 7th here! To be honest not promoting would suit us very well 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 08-07-2022 10:40
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Team Leader
Posts: 7293
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Nothing wrong with bad domestiques aha. As long as the key riders score well which they have for me in the first season of ICL when I played last time. Should be interesting to see what happens this time around!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 08-07-2022 10:57
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4667
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Good to see that we improved by 6 spots in the prediction - nota bene with the same riders as last year, meaning that they developed quite well 
Also, like Vegeta, we've got 14 riders >= 74.0 - let's see if depth actually pays off, or if top-heaviness is key to finish high up.
The drawback of good depth, however, is a lack of RDs, so we can't send full squads to many CT races. That might have a negative impact on our scoring potential.
Promotion might be at stake if everything goes really well, but is not really needed - I like the CT manager's freedom of picking any race I want to participate in, without having a big mandatory calendar
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| Shonak |
Posted on 08-07-2022 13:46
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Great previews, thanks a lot Ripley, love them.
I think Liberty was lucky last season with Herrada scoring well around, in particular the GTs covered by dominox, and VDP was still in U25 (a scoring dimension completely ignored by any formula). It will be tougher to get to podium this season, especially as the GTs will not be the pointsfeast for GT riders that they have been last year(... perhaps the GTs that I selected are even a bit too easy and could have used 1-2 more MTFs, we will see it in dominox' coverage and the eventual points distribution)
Definitely see Grupo Argos on top again too, their depth is expensive + they have a great talent roster, so the long term development is quite interesting here. Italo had some great investments in Konrad. Herklotz training makes him insane.
Last season relegation was definitely easier to predict and I shy away from that anyway, sadly I think a couple of bad races could catapult any team into a bad position which they dont deserve to be in.
CT predictions I am not sure off. I think that teams like Trans, VisitUkraine etc have shown in the past that many solid riders can score massively and retrieve points from any race even if they are not top tier leaders, so I favor any teams with many strong riders in CT over any big shot leader focused teams. Excited to see especially how Santos adapts to the return to CT, but also how the improvements & changes of last season's new joiners show themselves.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 08-07-2022 21:16
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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DAVETWOBOBS ICL21 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING
DaveTwoBob has amended his model that analyses the ICL WT, CT and U23 teams that came up with his dodgy predictions last year. Not satisfied with a flawed model using real stats, this year DaveTwoBob has invented his own stat called Stage Race (SR) to try reflect the higher scoring potential of stage racers. Accordingly the influence of Mountain stat has been reduced. Another addition is a mechanism to reduce a team’s score if the same rider tops more than one category, this is designed to reflect the impact of limited race days. This applies better to WT and will slightly distort results in CT and mess up U23 big time. To improve the influence of depth I have doubled the contribution of the rider score.
I came down with Covid so these changes are a bit later than hoped. After applying the training updates Liberty Seguros went from 1st to 11th! This exposed a serious flaw in the ranking calculation that needed a fix and explained some of the outlier results from last season. After fixing the ranking calculation I then had to rebalance the rank v rider scores. The final predictions are closer to last year’s results which gives me some hope this model is better but Liberty Seguros still look undervalued.
Any similarity between these predictions and real life are purely coincidental
WORLD TOUR PREDICTIONS LAST SEASON
Info courtesy of Ripley
The model does not account for depth well and that’s the big strength of Grupo Argos – Quala. A couple of predictions were 10 out, I hope I can narrow that down a bit this year.
| Rank | WT Pts | | D2B | Diff | | 1 | 10814 | Grupo Argos - Quala | 5 | -4 | | 2 | 8646 | Liberty Seguros | 6 | -4 | | 3 | 7857 | Team BP | 9 | -6 | | 4 | 7481 | Allianz - BMW Cycling Team | 1 | 3 | | 5 | 6915 | Suntory Lucozade Sport | 4 | 1 | | 6 | 6785 | Sevilla Cycling Team | 16 | -10 | | 7 | 6732 | Italo | 3 | 4 | | 8 | 6518 | KBC Godiva | 8 | 0 | | 9 | 6383 | Baku Synergy Plus | 7 | 2 | | 10 | 5948 | Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 14 | -4 | | 11 | 5762 | Alitalia | 10 | 1 | | 12 | 5728 | Ceramica Panaria | 2 | 10 | | 13 | 5652 | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 12 | 1 | | 14 | 5466 | Deutsche Bahn | 13 | 1 | | 15 | 4654 | Credit Suisse | 15 | 0 | | 16 | 4423 | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | 11 | 5 | | 17 | 2944 | Santos Euskadi | 17 | 0 | | 18 | 1423 | Vegeta Cycling Team | 18 | 0 |
The WT division looks very close with the top 10 teams within 9% of the leading score (and the margin for error in this model is almost certainly higher than that!)
Significant training lifts Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak into top place being best in Mountain, Hills and Stage Racing. In the fight for the win are Grupo Argos – Quala, Allianz - BMW Cycling Team, Team BP and pre training favourites Liberty Seguros. After that we have 5 teams competing for the podium places. The model has Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor, Trans Looney Tunes, Air Algérie - Navibulgar and CCC Sprandi Polkowice fighting to stay in the WT.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
| Pos | Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | % | | 1 | Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0% | | 2 | Grupo Argos - Quala | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2% | | 3 | Allianz - BMW Cycling Team | 3 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3% | | 4 | Team BP | 6 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3% | | 5 | Liberty Seguros | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 5% | | 6 | Baku Synergy + | 8 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6% | | 7 | Italo | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 6% | | 8 | Renault Classic | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 7% | | 9 | Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 13 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 9% | | 10 | Alitalia | 10 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 9% | | 11 | Deutsche Bahn | 14 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 12% | | 12 | Credit Suisse | 12 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16% | | 13 | Brugse Zot - Trek | 11 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 16% | | 14 | Bosch Cycling Team | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 18% | | 15 | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 16 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 20% | | 16 | Trans Looney Tunes | 15 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 20% | | 17 | Air Algérie - Navibulgar | 18 | 14 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20% | | 18 | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 16 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 25% |
WT Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak | 82 | 81 | 77 | 79 | 76 | 85.7 | | Grupo Argos - Quala | 81 | 79 | 80 | 73 | 80 | 84.5 | | Allianz - BMW Cycling Team | 81 | 80 | 75 | 76 | 81 | 84.7 | | Team BP | 81 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 85.3 | | Liberty Seguros | 82 | 80 | 78 | 74 | 76 | 86.1 | | Baku Synergy + | 79 | 78 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 84.3 | | Italo | 79 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 79 | 83.2 | | Renault Classic | 82 | 81 | 78 | 79 | 78 | 85.8 | | Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 78 | 78 | 76 | 81 | 81 | 82.6 | | Alitalia | 79 | 77 | 79 | 75 | 81 | 82.9 | | Deutsche Bahn | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 83.5 | | Credit Suisse | 79 | 82 | 78 | 75 | 78 | 82.4 | | Brugse Zot - Trek | 79 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 82.5 | | Bosch Cycling Team | 81 | 79 | 79 | 76 | 76 | 85.9 | | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 77 | 77 | 80 | 78 | 78 | 80.9 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 78 | 77 | 75 | 79 | 81 | 82.1 | | Air Algérie - Navibulgar | 76 | 77 | 76 | 81 | 81 | 81.4 | | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | 77 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 80 | 81.1 |
WT Team Top Rider per Terrain
No Team managed 6 different riders per Terrain. Adding Stage Race has squeezed the table a bit, hope you can still read it.
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | Air Algérie - Navibulgar | Diego Ulissi | Diego Ulissi | Jonathan Castroviejo | Florian Senechal | Marcel Kittel | Diego Ulissi | | Alitalia | Adam Yates | Adam Yates | Tobias Ludvigsson | Sean De Bie | Arnaud Demare | Tobias Ludvigsson | | Allianz - BMW Cycling Team | Warren Barguil | Warren Barguil | Thibaut Pinot | Gebremariam Alemayo | Bryan Coquard | Warren Barguil | | Baku Synergy + | Nairo Quintana | Nairo Quintana | Tom Dumoulin | Daniel Oss | Giacomo Nizzolo | Nairo Quintana | | Bosch Cycling Team | Silvio Herklotz | Silvio Herklotz | Silvio Herklotz | Harrison Adams | Fabian Schnaidt | Silvio Herklotz | | Brugse Zot - Trek | Charles Engeldinger | Charles Engeldinger | Taylor Phinney | Taylor Phinney | Andrew Fenn | Charles Engeldinger | | CCC Sprandi Polkowice | Nikita Novikov | Patryk Komisarek | Kamil Gradek | Patryk Komisarek | Patryk Komisarek | Nikita Novikov | | Credit Suisse | Davide Villella | Davide Villella | Bob Jungels | Salvatore Puccio | Fabio Silvestre | Davide Villella | | Deutsche Bahn | Alberto Contador | Simon Yates | Rasmus Quaade | Sep Vanmarcke | Andrea Guardini | Alberto Contador | | Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | Juan Pizarro | Guillaume Van Keirsbulck | Mathias Krigbaum | Guillaume Van Keirsbulck | Danny Van Poppel | Juan Pizarro | | Grupo Argos - Quala | Jan Polanc | Jan Polanc | Anton Vorobyev | Anton Vorobyev | Julian Alaphilippe | Jan Polanc | | Italo | Vincenzo Nibali | Alexey Lutsenko | Miguel Martínez | Markos Pintzopoulos | Fulvio Spagnoli | Vincenzo Nibali | | Liberty Seguros | Jesús Herrada | Jesús Herrada | Jesús Herrada | Willem Hofland | Mikel María López Gallego | Jesús Herrada | | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | Thomas Nybo Riis | Tom-Jelte Slagter | Fredrik Ludvigsson | John Degenkolb | John Degenkolb | Felix Großschartner | | Qatar Airways - Trentino - Qumak | Fabio Aru | Michał Kwiatkowski | Michał Kwiatkowski | Tom Van Asbroeck | Tom Van Asbroeck | Fabio Aru | | Renault Classic | Romain Bardet | Romain Bardet | Michael Hepburn | Juris Eisaks | Mads Pedersen | Romain Bardet | | Team BP | Rafal Majka | Rafal Majka | Campbell Flakemore | Peter Sagan | Leigh Howard | Rafal Majka | | Trans Looney Tunes | Pieter Serry | Pieter Serry | Geraint Thomas | Alexander Kristoff | Nacer Bouhanni | Pieter Serry |
The methodology uses a combination of the absolute quality of the top 3 riders on each terrain plus the relative ranking of each key stat to generate a total team score.
The relative Terrain weightings were calculated from the ICL19 points earned by riders based on their highest primary stat. This year I have reduced Mountain, Hill & TT influence and introduced a Stage Race stat which has the highest influence.
1. Select the top 3 riders in each team over 6 stats MO, HIL, TT, COB, SP and SR.
2. For each one of the Primary Stats
3. Take off a base stat to accentuate the difference between riders, these are 75 for WT, 72 for CT and 64 for U23.
4. Apply factors of 7,4 and 3 to the stats minus base for the top 3 riders and sum the results to get a Rider Score.
5. Rank the results
6. Multiply Team Count +1 minus Rank (e.g. WT Rank 1 gets 18) with a Terrain Weighting (e.g. MO is higher than TT) to give a Stat Score
7. Apply factors to Stat score and Rider score to balance their contribution.
8. Add the factored Stat Scores and the Rider Scores to get a Team Score
The model ignores Depth Scoring, Classics, TTT, U25, Backup Stats and Planning Choices. Possible improvements for next season.
For the excel boffins the formula for Stage Race rating is below. The +8 is a workaround for internal calculation reasons to distinguish the SR used stats from the “native” stats. I didn’t have the time to do a redesign to make it work properly.
Interested to hear opinions on adjusting the factors for stage racing which are Mountain*2, Hill*0.7, TT*0.8, Recovery*0.2. These try to average out for a season, TT isn’t higher as some stage races don’t have a ITT.
=((MO+8)*2+(HIL+8)*0.7+(TT+8)*0.8+(REC+8)*0.2)/3.8
CT and U23 to follow.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 08-07-2022 22:03
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Thanks for the post, again, D2B. I think the prediction looks very interesting.
I could deifnitely see Qatar on top, simply because Aru and Kwiatek could have outstanding seasons & ride everything into the ground. However other teams are arguably more sustainably and more structurally built and thus have a lower chance to drop, such as Grupo, BP, and Allianz.
If we end up 5th I'd be quite okay with that, too., as we can easily be behind Renault, Italo or even Baku I think. Find i also hard to believe that CCC would fight for relegation if Komisarek delivers.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ripley |
Posted on 09-07-2022 08:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
Joined: 25-11-2014
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for the update, D2B. Looks pretty realistic, though as Shonak said, CCC probably shouldn't be ranked last considering how dangerous Komisarek is.
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| dominox |
Posted on 09-07-2022 09:45
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Thanks for all the previews done so far. It's fun to see your team rated so low. But on the other hand you can't really blame math for it, can you? Although, DaveTwoBob system was really close with CCC prediction last season. I can only pray my riders will prove him wrong this time around.
Shonak wrote:
Find i also hard to believe that CCC would fight for relegation if Komisarek delivers.
Ripley wrote:
Thanks for the update, D2B. Looks pretty realistic, though as Shonak said, CCC probably shouldn't be ranked last considering how dangerous Komisarek is.
Considering almost all of his race days are full WC except TT, he would need to deliver hard for me to not get relegated. Sure, he is a beast - 9th highest rider by average. I'm curious of how he will do this season compared to last year. |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 09-07-2022 10:04
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks for the feedback - my model cannot cope with outliers like Komisarek and I agree that CCC will over-perform my prediction, we will see if its enough to stay in WT.
And we can see the same effect with La Vie Claire in CT.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 09-07-2022 10:11
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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DAVETWOBOBS ICL21 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING
CONTINENTAL TOUR PREDICTIONS LAST SEASON
Info courtesy of Ripley
Generally a better job than World Tour except for Shell Pro Cycling.
| Rank | Pr Pts | | D2B | Diff | | 1 | 6372 | Brugse Zot - Trek | 3 | -2 | | 2 | 5354 | Trans Cycling Team | 7 | -5 | | 3 | 5039 | Equinor Pro Cycling Team | 5 | -2 | | 4 | 4940 | Bosch Cycling Team | 1 | 3 | | 5 | 4526 | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 6 | -1 | | 6 | 4356 | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 10 | -4 | | 7 | 4304 | Magnum - Madshus | 2 | 5 | | 8 | 4180 | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 9 | -1 | | 9 | 3999 | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 12 | -3 | | 10 | 3728 | Education First x Palace - Nippo | 8 | 2 | | 11 | 3650 | Team Cymru Wales | 17 | -6 | | 12 | 3527 | Tierra del Fuego | 11 | 1 | | 13 | 3394 | Strava - ANZ | 16 | -3 | | 14 | 3369 | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 15 | -1 | | 15 | 3362 | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 13 | 2 | | 16 | 3227 | VIP Mobile | 19 | -3 | | 17 | 3156 | ICBC Cycling Team | 18 | -1 | | 18 | 3104 | Shell Pro Cycling | 4 | 14 | | 19 | 2963 | Nordea Bank - SAP | 14 | 5 | | 20 | 1939 | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | 20 | 0 |
CT Team Prediction
The model indicates Équipe Cycliste Peugeot are leaders with a tight group including Tierra del Fuego, Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry, Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm and VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff in the fight for promotion.
La Vie Claire have strong leaders and little depth. Last year’s model had them nearly last which felt unrealistic and prompted the model changes. The revised model puts them mid table, it will be interesting to see how accurate this proves to be.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
| Pos | Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | % | | 1 | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | 12 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 0% | | 2 | Tierra del Fuego | 1 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 2% | | 3 | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 17 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5% | | 4 | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 5 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5% | | 5 | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 5 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5% | | 6 | EF x Palace - Nippo | 7 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7% | | 7 | Ziggo | 9 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 8% | | 8 | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 10 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 11% | | 9 | Santos - Euskadi | 8 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 11% | | 10 | La Vie Claire | 18 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 14% | | 11 | Euskaltel - Elior | 15 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 14% | | 12 | DFK Panevėžys | 16 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 15% | | 13 | Shell Pro Cycling | 2 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 16% | | 14 | BNZ Cycling Team | 4 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 16% | | 15 | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 3 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 16% | | 16 | Vegeta Cycling Team | 12 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 19% | | 17 | Magnum - Madshus | 20 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 21% | | 18 | ICBC Cycling Team | 10 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 23% | | 19 | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | 12 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 27% | | 20 | Proximus Cycling Team | 19 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 32% |
CT Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | 77 | 79 | 77 | 75 | 78 | 81.0 | | Tierra del Fuego | 79 | 76 | 77 | 76 | 77 | 82.3 | | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 77 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 79 | 82.4 | | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 77 | 76 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 82.3 | | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 78 | 76 | 77 | 74 | 78 | 81.9 | | EF x Palace - Nippo | 77 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 78 | 80.9 | | Ziggo | 78 | 78 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 83.1 | | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 78 | 78 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 81.3 | | Santos - Euskadi | 78 | 78 | 75 | 75 | 78 | 80.9 | | La Vie Claire | 78 | 77 | 81 | 74 | 77 | 83.5 | | Euskaltel - Elior | 77 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 78 | 81.1 | | DFK Panevėžys | 76 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 80.3 | | Shell Pro Cycling | 79 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 79 | 81.7 | | BNZ Cycling Team | 78 | 78 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 82.3 | | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 78 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 81.3 | | Vegeta Cycling Team | 77 | 74 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 81.5 | | Magnum - Madshus | 72 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 77.3 | | ICBC Cycling Team | 77 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 81.3 | | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | 77 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 77 | 81.6 | | Proximus Cycling Team | 76 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 75 | 80.2 |
CT Team Top Rider per Terrain
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | BNZ Cycling Team | Bauke Mollema | Bauke Mollema | Bauke Mollema | Hamish Schreurs | Mark Cavendish | Bauke Mollema | | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | Joseph Dombrowski | Joseph Dombrowski | Anders Newbury | Juan Carlos Peiró | Guillaume Boivin | Joseph Dombrowski | | DFK Panevėžys | Esteban Chaves | Esteban Chaves | Nathan Brown | Miguel Bryon | Jo Kogstad Ringheim | Bakhtiyar Kozhatayev | | EF x Palace - Nippo | Gavin Mannion | Gianfranco Zilioli | Cameron Pugh | Pablo Alzaga | Andrea Palini | Gavin Mannion | | Équipe Cycliste Peugeot | Grégoire Lambert | Moreno Moser | Yoann Paillot | Laurens De Vreese | Adrien Petit | Moreno Moser | | Euskaltel - Elior | Carlos Verona | Pello Bilbao | Søren Andersen | Michael Boothroyd | Enrique Sanz | Carlos Verona | | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | David Boily | David Boily | Ryan Mullen | Philip Lavery | Xavier Langlois | David Boily | | ICBC Cycling Team | Dealton Nur | Maxat Ayazbayev | Jiong Wang | Ericson Quinones | Hayato Yoshida | Dealton Nur | | La Vie Claire | Tejay Van Garderen | Tejay Van Garderen | Luke Durbridge | Luke Durbridge | Luke Rowe | Tejay Van Garderen | | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | Kenny Elissonde | Kenny Elissonde | Kenny Elissonde | Jan Ghyselinck | Jonathon McEvoy | Kenny Elissonde | | Magnum - Madshus | Ari Hämäläinen | Mathias Rask Jeppessen | Steffen Hovland | Anders Egsvang | Daniel Hoelgaard | Ari Hämäläinen | | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | Frederico Figueiredo | Michael Boroš | Nelson Oliveira | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Frederico Figueiredo | | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | Natnael Berhane | Natnael Berhane | Christopher Mwaanga | Hendrik van der Merwe | Chris Kalale | Natnael Berhane | | Proximus Cycling Team | Derk Abel Beckeringh | Edward Theuns | Ruud Cremers | Gianni Vermeersch | Robin Dejonghe | Derk Abel Beckeringh | | Santos - Euskadi | Jonathan Peiffer | Luca Wackermann | Christian De Grootte | Christian De Grootte | Davide Appollonio | Jonathan Peiffer | | Shell Pro Cycling | Mikel Landa | Mikel Landa | Sam Bewley | Matthew Brandt | Adam Blythe | Mikel Landa | | Tierra del Fuego | Juan Chamorro | Juan Chamorro | Fernando Gaviria | Roberto Romero Martínez | Rick Zabel | Juan Chamorro | | Vegeta Cycling Team | Attila Hajdu | Attila Hajdu | Riccardo Zoidl | Josip Rumac | Luigi Cabras | Attila Hajdu | | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | Mykyta Sklar | Patrik Šimek | Patrik Šimek | Bulat Saigidov | Alexey Tsatevitch | Patrik Šimek | | Ziggo | Dominik Nerz | Dominik Nerz | Sam Oomen | Mousin Verkuyl | Barry Markus | Dominik Nerz |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 09-07-2022 15:39
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Thanks, definitely could see Peugeot on top as well, however they may also enjoy the team to a bit of a rebuild. Moser in particular is not a rider as good as his stats suggest. Tierra I could also go see up, would pehraps see VisitUkraine and Ziggo closer to the last podium.
Will be a good CT season surely, I'll try to do some videos as well for the more prestigious CT stage races and classics.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| OZrocker |
Posted on 09-07-2022 17:04
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1280
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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Looks good guys! I'll read through the previews a bit more thoroughly once I'm done checking planners (if you haven't sent yours yet, consider this a reminder!).
I'll be once again cheering for ICBC in the Continental Tour for the crossover of riders with my team, but will also keep an eye on BNZ to see how Bauke goes. If his point-scoring can continue like the last few years, don't be surprised to see them pushing for promotion as well.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 09-07-2022 19:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4667
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Wow, 2nd definitely looks promising! It's not that surprising, though, as I too think we should be in the promotion fight this year.
I'd also say we're probably Top3 in Mo/SR, having Chamorro as a great CT climber and Gomez for the more TT heavy stage races. But I don't really see us winning a lot of those races tbh.
Then, I'd say that with PCM15, Zabel is probably our strongest puncheur (although I'd like to see Huamán there to have even more different names ); Chamorro won't do a lot of hills despite being listed as our #1 there.
Sprints probably are where we're weakest, as it's pointed out in D2B's model. However, with Zabel targetting rather the medium difficulty hilly races than the pan-flat ones, I hope we've found a niche where he can score well despite not being among the fastest pure sprinters.
Huge thanks to all of you who did those predictions, it's a pleasure to study them
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 10-07-2022 11:25
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Happy to hear the hours of excel wrangling were worth it, I really am very rusty!
Next up we have the expanded and revised U23 tour. With the qualifying rider changes and my stage race stat I am hopeful the model will prove a useful guide.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 10-07-2022 11:30
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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DAVETWOBOBS ICL21 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING
I had a few headaches adjusting my macros to accommodate the massive 30 team U23 Tour!
My team has dominated U23 for a few seasons but no longer, a new U23 champion will be crowned and the model says it’s a two horse race between La Fundación (AURUM) and Islandsbanki. Fighting for podium spots are Astana U23 and Bosch Babies 
I have tweaked the U23 terrain ratings to more favour sprints vs WT as a sprinter was top scorer in U23 last year but Stage Race is still the dominant terrain.
The “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table and the score percentage drop relative to the top team.
| Pos | Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | % | | 1 | La Fundación | 1 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0% | | 2 | Islandsbanki | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 3% | | 3 | Astana U23 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 17 | 2 | 8% | | 4 | TBA - cio U23 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9% | | 5 | Bora - Argon18 Development Team | 15 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 12% | | 6 | Aviva Futura Project | 10 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 13% | | 7 | Los Gauchitos | 6 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 13% | | 8 | EF Cycling School | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 14% | | 9 | Renault Techno Development | 17 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 14% | | 10 | Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar | 7 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 17% | | 11 | Équipe Development Citroën | 21 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 17% | | 12 | De Stijl Cycling | 20 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 17% | | 13 | Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team | 18 | 12 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 19% | | 14 | Síragon Project | 12 | 13 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 22 | 19% | | 15 | PureBlack Racing | 30 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 19% | | 16 | Deutsche Bahn Development Team | 13 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 24% | | 17 | Alpine Boys | 7 | 6 | 27 | 15 | 20 | 11 | 26% | | 18 | Aru4Ever - Panaria | 5 | 18 | 28 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 28% | | 19 | P&O Ferries Zeebrugge | 27 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 30% | | 20 | Euskaltel | 11 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 25 | 8 | 32% | | 21 | Podravka Cycling Team | 16 | 25 | 16 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 34% | | 22 | Rabobank | 28 | 14 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 35% | | 23 | CCC Development Team | 25 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 41% | | 24 | PKKSC Dviratininkai | 22 | 11 | 7 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 44% | | 25 | Giant Asia Racing Team | 22 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 29 | 23 | 44% | | 26 | Air Algérie - Godiva | 29 | 17 | 14 | 25 | 16 | 25 | 46% | | 27 | BlackBerry Limited U23 | 18 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 21 | 46% | | 28 | Cadejo - Bike Xpress Cycling Academy | 13 | 27 | 18 | 29 | 30 | 13 | 67% | | 29 | LBO Development Team | 24 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 23 | 29 | 83% | | 30 | Millenium Academia de Ciclismo | 26 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 30 | 94% |
U23 Team Top Stat per Terrain
Here you can see the Stage Race (SR) invented stat. I needed to make it slightly higher than natural stats to make my selection formula’s work correctly.
We can see a lot of the top teams have taken advantage of the new rules allowing higher average riders.
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | La Fundación | 74 | 73 | 71 | 61 | 73 | 77.7 | | Islandsbanki | 74 | 73 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 77.3 | | Astana U23 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 66 | 70 | 78.2 | | TBA - cio U23 | 73 | 70 | 73 | 63 | 71 | 75.8 | | Bora - Argon18 Development Team | 70 | 71 | 74 | 69 | 70 | 76.6 | | Aviva Futura Project | 73 | 71 | 69 | 64 | 74 | 75.3 | | Los Gauchitos | 73 | 70 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 77.6 | | EF Cycling School | 72 | 72 | 71 | 72 | 67 | 77.2 | | Renault Techno Development | 70 | 70 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 75.0 | | Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar | 74 | 73 | 70 | 68 | 70 | 77.7 | | Équipe Development Citroën | 72 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 72 | 77.8 | | De Stijl Cycling | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 75.0 | | Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team | 70 | 73 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 76.0 | | Síragon Project | 71 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 73 | 74.1 | | PureBlack Racing | 69 | 72 | 70 | 74 | 72 | 74.0 | | Deutsche Bahn Development Team | 72 | 72 | 69 | 73 | 69 | 76.6 | | Alpine Boys | 72 | 73 | 69 | 68 | 68 | 75.5 | | Aru4Ever - Panaria | 73 | 70 | 67 | 67 | 70 | 76.2 | | P&O Ferries Zeebrugge | 68 | 69 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 72.7 | | Euskaltel | 72 | 72 | 70 | 65 | 66 | 76.9 | | Podravka Cycling Team | 72 | 70 | 70 | 71 | 66 | 76.9 | | Rabobank | 69 | 72 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 73.3 | | CCC Development Team | 68 | 71 | 70 | 69 | 69 | 74.6 | | PKKSC Dviratininkai | 71 | 72 | 70 | 64 | 65 | 74.1 | | Giant Asia Racing Team | 69 | 74 | 73 | 64 | 62 | 73.1 | | Air Algérie - Godiva | 69 | 72 | 70 | 63 | 70 | 74.8 | | BlackBerry Limited U23 | 71 | 68 | 71 | 69 | 63 | 74.1 | | Cadejo - Bike Xpress Cycling Academy | 71 | 70 | 71 | 64 | 60 | 75.9 | | LBO Development Team | 72 | 70 | 67 | 62 | 67 | 74.5 | | Millenium Academia de Ciclismo | 69 | 71 | 67 | 62 | 68 | 73.0 |
U23 Team Top Rider per Terrain
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | SR | | Air Algérie - Godiva | Abdul Bouzidi | Kevin Rakotonjanahary | Samuel Micoud | Samuel Micoud | Marius Dieu | Abdul Bouzidi | | Alpine Boys | Fabian Auinger | Yves Charton | Sebastiano Malnati | Diango Muller | Yves Charton | Sebastiano Malnati | | Aru4Ever - Panaria | Karl Holler | Karl Holler | Gabriele Solini | Fabio Terzi | Dimitris Kipouros | Karl Holler | | Astana U23 | Stefano Zappino | Stefano Zappino | Rustyam Ivanov | Aidyn Sarsenbaev | Aidyn Sarsenbaev | Stefano Zappino | | Aviva Futura Project | Bailey Jansen | Bailey Jansen | Aaron Georgievsky | Aaron Georgievsky | Astley Carter | Jim Grimsdell | | BlackBerry Limited U23 | Mike Payne | Mike Payne | Jules Mathieu | Scott McGuinness | Scott McGuinness | Elliott Crowe | | Bora - Argon18 Development Team | Zoltán Koncz | Julian Jansen | Zoltán Koncz | Lars Rupf | Daniel Kopp | Zoltán Koncz | | Cadejo - Bike Xpress Cycling Academy | Holguer Enrique Heras | Holguer Enrique Heras | Jonathan Soler | Yunier Consuegra | Holguer Enrique Heras | Jonathan Soler | | CCC Development Team | Wincenty Kubicki | Wincenty Kubicki | Jakub Ciz | Adam Gebre Selassie | Damian Antkowiak | Wincenty Kubicki | | De Stijl Cycling | Gerard Ling | Bekim Udovic | David Twing | Susumu Yamazaki | Antoni Simunic | Gerard Ling | | Deutsche Bahn Development Team | Joe Richter | Tobias Krautberger | Marcel Guillot | Lutz Berg | Lutz Berg | Joe Richter | | EF Cycling School | Jackie Hodge | Michele Lerda | Jackie Hodge | Zdzislaw Kolodziejski | Zdzislaw Kolodziejski | Jackie Hodge | | Équipe Development Citroën | Alain Penot | Lionel Sauvaget | Alain Penot | Sébastien Hochart | Augustin Buron | Alain Penot | | Euskaltel | Gilberto Jimenez | Gilberto Jimenez | José Ángel Rosal | Guillaume Mayeux | Gilberto Jimenez | Gilberto Jimenez | | Giant Asia Racing Team | Kazimierz Krawczyk | Chinnawat Wongsa | Ulrich Brouwers | Chinnawat Wongsa | Chinnawat Wongsa | Chinnawat Wongsa | | Islandsbanki | Christian Lecomte | Christian Lecomte | Lars Bay | Vsevolod Butenko | Vsevolod Butenko | Christian Lecomte | | La Fundación | Alex Ortega | Alex Ortega | Wenyan Liu | Wenyan Liu | Anders Estdahl | Alex Ortega | | LBO Development Team | Toomas Tohver | Toomas Tohver | Romans Fedorovics | Romans Fedorovics | Denzel Wegh | Toomas Tohver | | Los Gauchitos | Ernesto Urízar | Ernesto Urízar | Germán Ollero | Rubén Gorriarán | Andrés Cruz | Germán Ollero | | Millenium Academia de Ciclismo | Caetano Coentro | Caetano Coentro | Anderson-Lenda Pires | Gus Nuno | Gus Nuno | Caetano Coentro | | P&O Ferries Zeebrugge | Patrick Hereijgers | Danny Lorse | Gillis Den Haag | Tom Ghistelinck | Matt Wadsworth | Gillis Den Haag | | PKKSC Dviratininkai | Bronislav Polach | Jan Valkoun | Danny White | Robbie Cognart | Robbie Cognart | Bronislav Polach | | Podravka Cycling Team | Gasper Loncar | Gasper Loncar | Kristijan Kvasina | Daniel Jensen | Yrjö Blomqvist | Gasper Loncar | | PureBlack Racing | Maxim Kirienko | Loïc Astier | Ioannis Foster | Loïc Astier | Antonio Maini | Maxim Kirienko | | Rabobank | Loris Marquant | Martijn Hiensch | Lode Bijl | Bob Losch | Kamili Ndahayo | Loris Marquant | | Reizen Waes - Pinkpop Development Team | William Ost | Henk Vanden Boer | William Ost | Dennis Vierek | Sierk Seegers | William Ost | | Renault Techno Development | Peter Amiel | Matteo Cavallo | Jonathan Wright | Daniil Detenyshev | Daniil Detenyshev | Denis Bongioni | | Síragon Project | Santiago Frígola | David Frígola | Kolya Avramenko | Mikkel Rasmussen | Marc Herder | Santiago Frígola | | TBA - cio U23 | Andy Janssen | Andy Janssen | Martin Hamilton | Sandro Klinge | Otto Pichlmann | Tim Ahrens | | Telenor Youth Team p/b Polestar | James Smith | Florian Diederich | David Hill | Florian Diederich | Tomislav Vuksanovic | James Smith |
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| Ripley |
Posted on 10-07-2022 11:57
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
Joined: 25-11-2014
PCM$: 300.00
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We'd love to finish 6th. With the new restriction to U23 race days it was easy to avoid our weaknesses, no cobblestones, no hilly one-day races, as few TT km as possible.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-07-2022 13:04
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Excited to see Guinness so far up, but again, it's about planning, and ours is not great. Blackberry at the bottom is expected. Besides McGuinness, who's still at the beginning of his journey, our farm team is about getting domestiques trained from our target nations more than developing future leaders.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| OZrocker |
Posted on 10-07-2022 13:33
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1280
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 300.00
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I never really intended to have a team that was great on hills and nothing else, but here we are! Koejoe and Won stepping up to the main team means we no longer have a stage racer or a sprinter, so a huge amount of points will have to come from Wongsa and Susilo if we want to finish mid-table. Brouwers is good too, but TT points are hard to come by and the remaining five are unlikely to score anything significant against stronger U23 competition.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 10-07-2022 16:57
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4667
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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I was quite shocked to see the number "24" for our Gauchito's TT, given that we should have one of the division's strongest TTers (Ollero) - but yeah, given that 3 riders are taken into account, you can't come up high if you've got one classy rider and just TT noobs elsewhere
I hope we'll finish slightly higher than 7th, but a Top 10 would actually be fine. As the table shows, we're strong in mountains and sprints, where we've got two leaders. SR is surprisingly high, so I guess TTing doesn't have a huge impact there - but Ollero hopefully will indeed be among the Top 5 stage racers.
Also looking forward to see if Gorriarán can do something on the cobbles, while we had to omit hills almost completely given our lack of a puncheur.
Will surely be fun to follow our future stars with the new stat limit rules, though!
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