baseballlover312 wrote:
Hesjedal losing 5 minutes today. Can he complete a GT without losing crap loads of stupid time in the first week?
No.
Yup, that about answers it.
And at least one of Martin and Talansky will do the same, somehow, someway, before the mountains im pretty sure.
Btw, how are Garmins take on Talansky? To me, he is vastly overrated and Dan Martin is a much better shot at a top-10 than him, overall just a better rider.
baseballlover312 wrote:
Hesjedal losing 5 minutes today. Can he complete a GT without losing crap loads of stupid time in the first week?
No.
Yup, that about answers it.
And at least one of Martin and Talansky will do the same, somehow, someway, before the mountains im pretty sure.
Btw, how are Garmins take on Talansky? To me, he is vastly overrated and Dan Martin is a much better shot at a top-10 than him, overall just a better rider.
Not sure who is a better climber, but Martin is much better on hills. Talansky is usually a much better time trialist, but he didn't show that yesterday.
I think that the major fact is that Martin always cracks hard somewhere. Talansky is the kind of guy that usually is around, even after getting dropped. While Martin a lot of time has a day where he just cracks early and is gone. So he's a very hard guy to hedge all your bets on in a GT.
Edit: And to be fair, Talansky has shown flashes of being a great rider. Not event taking the last stage of Dauphine 2014 into account, he out climbed a pretty hard Chris Froome attacked that dropped everyone but him and Contador, who had attacked earlier. He has shown that when he's on form and feels good, he has flashes of brilliance.
Edited by baseballlover312 on 05-07-2015 22:57
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
baseballlover312 wrote:
lol, Grivko before Martin.
Dan the man should do well here. not sure about winning, but we'll see.
Hesjedal losing 5 minutes today. Can he complete a GT without losing crap loads of stupid time in the first week?
My list isn't in any particular order of probability, and I only go for Grivko based on history. He typically only has a couple strong results every year or so, and I'd say he's due now (though the European Games TT could be considered a good result, but maybe that's just a hint that he's in form). The course suits his characteristics and if he gets the freedom to go I think he can go. Maybe not a win, but around top 10.
I didn't really think about Martin. His performances so far this year haven't stood out, and in such a big field with 20 or 30 riders going for it for different reasons, I don't see him contending. I'd love to see him win, I just think it's not so likely.
God damn you Hesjedal. Now my only hope for a successful prediction is for De Gendt to win the KOM. Probably not likely...
Stage three of the Tour De France sees the riders tackle a mini Ardennes stage, with the peloton heading to the finish up the famous Mur De Huy. This will be the first real test for the overall contenders in terms of showing off their climbing ability.
On the races official website, race director Christian Prudhomme mentioned the importance of this stage as a guide for the high mountains to come. "In the same way that Nibali's performance in Sheffield announced the stunning master-piece of the Italian on the 2014 Tour, the man who will tame the Mur should be one of the main actors...".
Along with the early time trial on stage one, and crosswinds of stage two, this first week is already shaping up to be extremely nervy for the riders, especially those riding for the overall.
Even though the Mur is only a short climb, it is brutal for the riders. At an average gradient of over 9% for 1.3km, the climb starts off fairly steadily but then ramps up to 19% at its steepest. Used as part of the Fleche Wallonne classic every April, the climb has the potential to cause time gaps for the overall contenders.
The Mur though is not the only climb on the peloton's plate today, with three fourth category climbs, including the Cote de Cherave which tops out with 5 kilometres to go. The Cote de Cherave, is a very similar climb to the Mur De Huy, but has a consistent gradient throughout, unlike the finishing climb.
In this year's edition of Fleche Wallonne, the Cote de Cherave was introduced for the first time to the race, and offered a spring board for riders to try to breakaway before the final time up the Mur, making the race far more tactical and unpredictable.
With its obvious similarities to Fleche Wallonne for obvious reasons, it needs to be said that this stage will more than likely play out somewhat differently to that of Fleche. This is due to the fact that the stage is only 159 kilometres in length, nearly 50 kilometres shorter than Fleche Wallonne, whilst also being far less hilly.
Therefore, this should make the last 20 kilometres to the stage far more chaotic than what occurs in Fleche. More riders in contention on narrow roads means a nervous bunch.
The favourites
The last two editions of Fleche Wallonne have been won by Alejandro Valverde. There are two main reasons for his success up the Mur De Huy. His positioning and his patience.
In this year's Fleche Wallonne, Valverde was perfectly positioned into the climb, right at the front, and set tempo all the way to the final sprint with 200 metres to go. This ultimately allows him to ride his own pace up the climb, and not get blocked by his competitors in the final speed. He is also then able to react to any attacks if he feels the need to.
If all things go to plan, it would take something extremely special to beat the current Spanish champion, who has been extremely consistent with his results this season.
Another Spaniard in Joaquin Rodriguez is the only other rider alongside Valverde to have won up the Mur De Huy, having done so at Fleche Wallonne in 2012.
Rodriguez prospers on these steep uphill finishes, and will be possibly the only rider who can contend with Valverde's final attack. He was third behind Valverde in this year's Fleche, but was in the right position to pounce. With an easier profile on the cards, he may be better rested for the ascent of the Mur.
His run in to the Tour has been solid, with a top 10 place at the Criterium Du Dauphine, Rodriguez will be looking for a strong race in potentially his last ever tilt at a Tour De France.
Dan Martin has had a fairly underwhelming season to date, after not finishing any of the Ardennes classics. He is also coming into the Tour after finishing 20th on general classification at the Criterium Du Dauphine.
Having said this, if Martin can repeat his performance from 2014 Fleche Wallonne (2nd place) it wouldn't necessarily be a surprise. Having won Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2013, and Lombardia in 2014, Martin has the pedigree to win on this type of course. He will want a big result after a disappointing year thus far, and the Tour De France is the place to do it.
In terms of the general classification riders, there should be no real time gaps in the stage. It will be paramount that they are positioned well into the second to last climb to make sure they are in the perfect starting spot for the Mur.
Other riders that could feature in the finale include Michael Albasini (podium at Fleche Wallone in 2015 and 2012) or Simon Gerrans from Orica Greenedge, Romain Bardet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Julian Arredondo and Rui Costa.
It should not be discounted the chance that an attack over the climb leading into the Mur could cause problems. Don't be surprised to see a rider like Tim Wellens, Nathan Haas or Sylvain Chavanel trying their luck at getting a gap to hold off the peloton up the final climb.
Is there anyone else that could contend for this stage? Discuss in the comments below.
Posting it in full hear because it has not been posted yeton the regular website l put it on.
This should be too tough for Sagan but with it being shorter and less tough than FW plus reported headwind on the penultimate climb, great form and a chance of yellow...just might be possible.
Sagan might have a chance for winning the stage
I'd say D.Martin has a great chance of battling with Valverde.
I also expect Contador to struggle.Don't know why though
Nibali might do an attack if he is not injured
maybe Valverde could drag Quintana up the hill, but seriously I think it will be a solo victory from a late attack...Cancellara will really struggle but Tony might do that too, so Dumoulin is the biggest favourite to me for yellow
ianrussell wrote:
This should be too tough for Sagan but with it being shorter and less tough than FW plus reported headwind on the penultimate climb, great form and a chance of yellow...just might be possible.
Thanks to PCS I just "recalled" that Sagan finished 12th alongside Valverde in the much tougher than today 2013 FW. So chance of yellow is probably stretching it given the 30+ second gap to the TT trio but I reckon it's a(n) (outside) goer.
Greg LeMond saying he doesnt understand why BMC and Sky didnt go flatout yesterday. Whereas BMC hesitation might be a bit understandable since they had Dennis behind. Sky should definitely go flatout.
Kirchen_75 wrote:
Greg LeMond saying he doesnt understand why BMC and Sky didnt go flatout yesterday. Whereas BMC hesitation might be a bit understandable since they had Dennis behind. Sky should definitely go flatout.
Greg says it couldve been worth another minute.
Agree with Greg. BMC should without a doubt have gone for it much earlier.
