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PCMdaily DB Stat Discussion - PCM15
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:02
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
"Well given the fact that these updates are now monthly, we have the luxury of garnering current form a bit better and assessing rider stats over the last few months rather than over half a year. "
This is exactly what I don't agree with. Their actual level (stats) and their current form is two completely different things. You shouldn't lower a riders stats based on their current form. You should only lower them if they keep underperforming over a longer period of time. At least that's my opinion.
Well that is the whole point of doing monthly stat updates, as their wouldn't be much point in doing them otherwise. Both the team and forum members constantly suggest upgrades for riders on races they've done well and to balance this certain riders have to get reductions, otherwise you'd have a DB that was constantly going up in the stat abilities. That being said, there are some riders that are left for the reasons you've just said as well due to form, injuries and other things. It's a balance that statmakers have to make the ultimate call on, as we'd never get anything done if we consulted on all the problem riders out there.
All the stats are monitored every month and rider stats are changed daily and this has always been the way it's been done, ever since I joined the forum and also the way the previous statmakers did it, because if it wasn't it would be a hell of a lot of work to go through every rider every few months or so, doing them daily is much quicker and less time consuming but of course we do bear in mind their form over a period of time as well before making bigger changes.
The only difference now is that these results are seen quicker than they were before, because instead of being released every 3 or 4 months they have a monthly release.
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| togo95 |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:06
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Domestique
Posts: 442
Joined: 06-01-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
This is exactly what I don't agree with. Their actual level (stats) and their current form is two completely different things. You shouldn't lower a riders stats based on their current form. You should only lower them if they keep underperforming over a longer period of time. At least that's my opinion.
Agreed. In my eyes, stats should be some kind of evaluation of the most likely outcome and in that similar to betting odds, but more long term and should disregard the variations in the form throughout the year.
Also the fact that someone wins a race, doesn't mean it was the most likely outcome before the race and similarly doesn't mean he would be the favourite if the same race was to be ridden again.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:14
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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togo95 wrote:
j0nne wrote:
This is exactly what I don't agree with. Their actual level (stats) and their current form is two completely different things. You shouldn't lower a riders stats based on their current form. You should only lower them if they keep underperforming over a longer period of time. At least that's my opinion.
Agreed. In my eyes, stats should be some kind of evaluation of the most likely outcome and in that similar to betting odds, but more long term and should disregard the variations in the form throughout the year.
Also the fact that someone wins a race, doesn't mean it was the most likely outcome before the race and similarly doesn't mean he would be the favourite if the same race was to be ridden again.
Well this is where something like 'favourite races' 'nationality bonus' should come into effect. Even an option like which parts of the season a certain rider peaks at like beginning, middle or end should come into play as well.
Well known examples of this are Froome peaking in the middle, Valverde constant throughout the year and CT level riders doing much better than their stats in certain races etc.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 20:13
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| j0nne |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:18
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Stagiare
Posts: 156
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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I agree with the fact that monthly upgrades is a beautiful thing, and it is important for me to state that I generally think that you're doing a wonderful job. With that said, I don't believe you can justify lowering a riders stats based on their current form. You would have to wait and see if they keep underperforming. On the other hand upgrades should occure as soon as a rider shows levels beyond what his stats justify. So upgrades and downgrades don't go entirely hand in hand. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:29
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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With that said, I don't believe you can justify lowering a riders stats based on their current form.
I think I can certainly prove you wrong on this one. We waited a year to downgrade Langeveld and it was after Paris-Roubaix. We never lower riders based on 1 or 2 or even 3 underperfomances, however, if they suck for an entire year period, how can't you justify a downgrade? Otherwise we'd still have Vanendert on 80 hill!
I totally agree with your post and just think you misunderstood the content of Tafiolmo's post. What we do is completely in line with what you said! 
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:31
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
I agree with the fact that monthly upgrades is a beautiful thing, and it is important for me to state that I generally think that you're doing a wonderful job. With that said, I don't believe you can justify lowering a riders stats based on their current form. You would have to wait and see if they keep underperforming. On the other hand upgrades should occure as soon as a rider shows levels beyond what his stats justify. So upgrades and downgrades don't go entirely hand in hand.
I should point out that I agree with your ideas especially about current form etc and in an ideal game this would be so. But I do think that we're disputing something that is not really there, as we actually do the things in general that you're suggesting anyway.
Upgrades are usually easier and done daily, whereas downgrades are tougher and often less easy to notice as some time can pass anyway before we notice that a rider is not performing at a certain level anymore. Usually a downgrade is not done for quite a few months even up to six months after the rider has stopped performing at that level anyway. Because every so often we'll notice a rider who has stopped performing at a certain level and barring injury we'll reduce him.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:33
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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BTW just saw Matt had posted the same thing before I posted this (above) and as always he explained it better than me anyway.
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| j0nne |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:46
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Stagiare
Posts: 156
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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It truely sounds like we all suddenly agree now..  This was the comment which made me react though:
"Well given the fact that these updates are now monthly, we have the luxury of garnering current form a bit better and assessing rider stats over the last few months rather than over half a year. "
And that kind of suggested that at least one you had a different oppion just a few minutes ago.. Sorry if I'm being a bit of a dick.. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 12:58
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
It truely sounds like we all suddenly agree now.. This was the comment which made me react though:
"Well given the fact that these updates are now monthly, we have the luxury of garnering current form a bit better and assessing rider stats over the last few months rather than over half a year. "
And that kind of suggested that at least one you had a different oppion just a few minutes ago.. Sorry if I'm being a bit of a dick..
For example with Roglic doing an amazing TT the other day, was this a question of hugely improved TT skills over a shorter distance, being on amazing form or even a combination of the two things? Or is the fact that Hesjedal has been riding a terrible 2016 so far a sign that he's finally on the way down, just out of form or is it the Hesjedal of always where he rides into form in a GT and normally in its second and third weeks?
These are the type of questions that we often have to make decisions on when doing the stats and even before the update comes out we may have changed the same rider quite a few times to work better with his other stats.
If we could control form throughout the year, then we would certainly would be doing that as well as it's a huge factor.
BTW no need to apologize, you're opinion was extremely valid and this is what the forum always needs and that is constructive criticism, as we take it onboard when doing the stats.
At the end of the day we have to make a call on the riders, with smaller riders most won't notice but on the bigger names they often do and that is something people are going to disagree on anyway.
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| j0nne |
Posted on 12-05-2016 13:05
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Stagiare
Posts: 156
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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How is that comment in any way related to the comment I just posted?
I agree that statmaking is a tough task though, and I truely appreciate your effort! |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 13:32
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
How is that comment in any way related to the comment I just posted?
I agree that statmaking is a tough task though, and I truely appreciate your effort!
Which comment are you referring to?
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| j0nne |
Posted on 12-05-2016 13:41
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Stagiare
Posts: 156
Joined: 29-02-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Well, you quoted my comment in your post, as if it in some way related to what I said, and that doesn't seem to be the case.. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 12-05-2016 13:54
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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j0nne wrote:
Well, you quoted my comment in your post, as if it in some way related to what I said, and that doesn't seem to be the case..
I think we've been chatting too long, anyway I'm off now to see how Nieve does on the first mtn stage of the Giro as he's the one that started this whole debate anyway,
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| Asbjrn95 |
Posted on 13-05-2016 04:20
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Junior Rider
Posts: 25
Joined: 01-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Does the resistance stat have a impact now in 3D races? Did they fix it ? |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 13-05-2016 09:26
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Asbjrn95 wrote:
Does the resistance stat have a impact now in 3D races? Did they fix it ?
It most certainly does.
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| Asbjrn95 |
Posted on 13-05-2016 15:07
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Junior Rider
Posts: 25
Joined: 01-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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I played a test career with a database and I noticed that Quintana and Pinot was quite overrated, while Froome wasn't. So I edited their stats to make it more realistic.
I didn't only change this stat but I gave Froome a little bit higher resistance than Quintana, Contador and Nibali, since he is that good irl too. Will hopefully make a little difference then. |
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| BB95 |
Posted on 14-05-2016 00:16
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Stagiare
Posts: 242
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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matt17br wrote:
Also, Team Almeborg-Bornholm should be included.
We have noticed you asking it a fair amount of times already and decided to add it for V2 
Is this for real? Would be super nice! |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 14-05-2016 08:09
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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It is.
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| clamel |
Posted on 14-05-2016 23:09
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1361
Joined: 13-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Let me ask if these periodic update wasn't ment to be when the DB-team has badly misjudged a cyclist. Or it is obvious that a cyclist has really been improving over a longer period (still in 2016).
Newly signed cyclists to WT and many cyclists in smaller teams are hard to judge, so over the year they might score some very nice results. Hence the would be up for an adjustment.
New info on smaller teams website could reveal what kind of cyclist we deal with. If it doesn't shape up in the DB, that's what should be changed.
Moving stats up and down 1-2 pts surely can't be justified, since that could only be based on cyclist present form. That is something I really do hope the game itself takes care of, a bit random to reflect real life.
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“We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” 
"If thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee."
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| ziga007 |
Posted on 15-05-2016 15:17
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Neo-Pro
Posts: 388
Joined: 24-06-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Roglič 85 TT
Alberto Contador
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