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Mafia V
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| ryant |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:07
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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I am playing a new strategy here guys as a town member. The mafia's easiest way to win is to lynch incorrectly right? And please look at those who are advocating a lynch already? These people (hillis and trek in particular) are extremely suspicious for trying to lynch with not an ounce of proof and make me believe that they are mafia working in unison with each other. Not only that but I don't know why people are coming to hillis's aid so soon? Mafia members trying to get town to look the other way? Looks like it to me and that's why I'm lynching hillis91
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:10
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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That's all the info i needed.
Lynch ryant
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:11
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Ryant, the easiest way for the mafia to win is the town lynching nobody and just picking everybody off one by one, actually lynching players helps the town.
Also, you are the one just randomly making posts about how you are just a useless town member and whatever. 
Not saying I trust hillis, just I certainly don't trust you.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
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btw, at the moment Ryant has the most lynch votes (if I haven't missed any) would be nice to get some more feedback before we simply let him be lynched.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:14
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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I feel the same way, being on the same end of the stick for awhile myself. Being labeld a mafia member stinks. So im open to changing my vote if im convinced.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:24
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Well that was an interesting exchange. I don't know which way to go. But i have more reason in my mind to Lynch Hillis as i feel good about my hiding in plain sight theory. At least a lynch on him would clear out the distraction and allow us a better read on the rest of the players.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:25
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:26
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Well that was an interesting exchange. I don't know which way to go. But i have more reason in my mind to Lynch Hillis as i feel good about my hiding in plain sight theory. At least a lynch on him would clear out the distraction and allow us a better read on the rest of the players.
That logic applies to ryant and to a lesser extent you, of course though.
I'm still planning to still wait to see what else is written as the votes are tied at the moment, may be willing to switch to hillis however though.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:33
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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wow, TheManxMissile playing the game well right now. Im getting the strong feeling that you dragged me along to frame me, and are now finishing up the job. Not many rookie mistakes on your part sir. Well played, getting Trek to bite instantly
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:34
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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trekbmc wrote:
That logic applies to ryant and to a lesser extent you, of course though.
I'm still planning to still wait to see what else is written as the votes are tied at the moment, may be willing to switch to hillis however though.
Well i became a distraction cause i didn't really get the game, but now i know to sit back and comment less.
Ryant could be classed as a distraction, but he's not flinging around many posts and being quite so open. Plus a lynch on hillis might force the mafia into a new move, having lost a big cover, and make it easier for a Detective/CC as they'd have less people to need to investigate. Lynching ryant leaves the bigger distraction in play, and the mafia will knock off another quiet one as a result. Nothing would change.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:42
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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What are you even talking about hillis? I'm just trying to spark something happening and get some opinions. And you're really panicking over the top.
I can get your logic, TMM and while I would consider voting against you or ryant later in the game especially if hillis is a townie (but then still dependant on what happens) based on his previous posts it's too much to not vote for hillis.
Lynch Hillis
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:45
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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Well, how about the dective who was urged to investigate me comes forward and gives up what his reading was?
Im not panicking? Im stupified over your decision making.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:49
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
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The last thing the detective should do now is come forward and reveal himself! That makes him an easy picking for the mafia, much better is for them to wait until they've found 1 or 2 mafia.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:55
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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So lynching an innocent townie is the right move in your eyes then?
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| knockout |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Spoiler sammyt93 wrote:
knockout wrote:
sammyt93 wrote:
On a separate thought if the doctor, detective and Confused Cop are all active then it would require a small amount of co-ordination for the detective and confused cop to work out which one is which and they could know as early as 3 nights time.
Seeing as Ryant has stated that he is a regular old townie then we could put that to the test at the same time by getting the doctor to save him 3 nights in a row, and get the detective and Confused cop to investigate him all 3 nights.
If theory it would only take 2 nights but if they both come up with Town first night and Mafia second night then they would need a third night to figure out if they are the confused cop or if he is the godfather, any other role, town or mafia the detective would get the same read both nights and would know in 2 nights that he is the detective and we should have formed a prioritised list of potential mafia members in that time, we would just need to hope that the detective isn't killed by the mafia in those 2 nights.
Hopefully this post generates some discussion that could help us oust a mafia member in the mean time.
I have a few questions about this and i would like you (please let sammyt answer first - if anyone else feels the urge to reply please wait until sammyt has replied ???? ) to answer them to me:
1) Do you believe ryant that he is a simple "useless" townee? If not, what do you believe he could be instead?
2) Do you think it is worth it to investigate the same guy three nights in a row?
3) If we wait those three nights a detective will have had 5 investigation results. Do you think that this is not enough to give us a proper idea for their exact role?
a) if both det./cc are alive ?
b) if one is dead ?
4) What about the chance of the CC getting the same result two days in a row?
5) How would you want to coordinate the whole plan?
6) What do you suggest us to do for the next three days in order to follow your plan?
7) How do you suggest to act if three guys claim to be detective / cc?
1) I'm not sure, seeing as the godfather would come up as a townie straight away it would make some sense for the godfather to claim they are just a townie but I haven't seen anything else that would suggest ryant is.
2) hmm not sure, it depends on how close the numbers would be afterwards but it would allow the detective to know they are definitely not the cc and mean they know they are right first time on everyone else meaning they can find the mafia members without any doubts.
3) it wouldn't be a problem if the cc is dead because their reads can't be trusted, only the detective could be. He would know his reads so far are accurate, depending on what he got so far.
4) I didn't think of that, but he shouldn't do 3 days in a row.
5) and 6) I'll be honest I have not thought it through to far but the doctor would save the person we agree to investigate to make sure they don't get killed by he mafia and we would have to.make sure we don't lynch them.
7) well I wouldn't expect the detective to say who he was straight away but to find a mafia member or 2 first, if he does system who he is then he would die the night after the doctor as that would be the only thing stopping him from getting killed and there's no guarantee he wouldn't get suicides by the terrorist as soon as he reveals his role.
I've finished this post back at work and can't guarantee I'll have time to respond again until I finish, and definitely not as long a post as this, if I need to respond to.somehing hen hopefully Jandal won't mind a small deadline extension.
To be honest: I think that plan looks bad for us. I'll explain why:
Take a look at what the confused cop will get:
1. The CC won't know he's CC
There are 8 possibilities of reads throughout the three days he could get on ryant. All of them have the same propability (12,5 %) :
Day 1 read Day 2 read Day 3 read Read own role: Read ryant: Read of his own role after 2 days:
1) mafia mafia mafia Detective Mafia Detective
2) mafia mafia town CC unknown Detective
3) mafia town mafia CC unknown CC
4) mafia town town CC unknown CC
5) town mafia mafia Detective Godfather unknown
6) town mafia town CC unknown unknown
7) town town mafia CC unknown Detective
???? town town town Detective Town Detective
[/table]
There is a 37,5 % chance that he will "know" after three days that he is the detective. Which is dangerous as he would have wasted three days to get to a false result which will likely to a kill of a town member that came up as a mafia read. After two days even worse: he knows just as much as today if applying your logic.
2. We would have to delay lynching until after the time to maximise the chances of a succesful execution of the plan
the doctor would save the person we agree to investigate to make sure they don't get killed by he mafia and we would have to.make sure we don't lynch them.
That would probably mean that we should delay lynching because we could kill one of them by accident. I explained earlier why it's important to start lynching early: At this point you don't necessarily vote because you think someone is more likely mafia than town but because he is the most likely town member and because by voting to lynch someone you win information on the players and force players to interact with each other. That will help us to make decisions later on who to investigate / protect / give weapons / lynch later in the game.
3. Will they even be alive in three days time?
16 players have started the game, 2 are dead already, 3 are mafia, so that we are left with 11 town members at this point. If we follow your plan the mafia will kill 3 more town member until they "know" their role so we would be down to 8 of 13 townees. In percentages:
61,5 % that the detective would still be alive by the end of day 3 of your plan
35,8 % that CC & detective will still be alive by the end of day 3 of your plan
35,8 % that doctor & detective will still be alive by the end of day 3 of your plan
19,6 % that doctor, detective and CC will still be alive by the end of day 3 of your plan
( if the mafia has some good reads on any of the trio the odds would be even more against it )
That is a too low chance for me to think it's worth it.
4. Even after three days they would not have much more information then now
Even if they all survived those three days they would still not know much more. They might know the role of ryant by then (although not for sure) but wasted two days without getting further information.
5. They would know more if they simply investigate the most likely lynch candidates
If they investigate the most likely lynch candidates there is a reasonable chance that they get a mafia read on someone. After three more days you will have collected much more reads, you might have confirmed your exact role already by lynches (when you got a wrong lead) or can work out your likely role by a combination of your reads (e. g. 3+ mafia reads would be impossible)
tl;dr: Your plan is imo a very bad strategy for the town. I ask everyone to question my logic on this post but imo that plan would be dependant on lots of luck to work and would waste rescources. I'm hoping for a reply from you (perhaps after work?)
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:57
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
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Also interesting how quiet ryant and TMM got right now
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 19:27
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
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Lynch ryant
I have a feeling that hillis91 is not mafia. Going to go with ryant on this one as lynching nobody won't be successful. Could still change my mind.
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| knockout |
Posted on 06-10-2017 19:53
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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My opinion about hillis, TMM and ryant:
from most town-ish to most mafia-ish:
TMM - his GIF posting marathon at the beginning is very much in line with his general behaviour on daily (just look through MG HQs : whenever someone posts a GIF he reacts with more GIFs) and i liked how he reacted to the suspicions - imo likely a townie.
ryant - looks suspicious to me but i'm not sure yet what really to think about him. I recommend watching him more closely for now
hillis: I think his actions are very distracting and suspicious. I only know him from joining the MG now so i cannot rate his general behaviour. But his recent posts are basically "you lynch me so i lynch you", "TMM is mafia and framed me" [but voting to lynch ryant], "detective, show yourself!" "questioning others who lynch without confirmation"[while being one of the first to lynch-vote] and "look at them". None of them help us at all or clear himself a tiny bit.
In my opinion:
Best case scenario: Mafia. Worst case: A major distraction.
If we lynch one of the three it should imo be hillis.
@Jandal: can we get an extension? (the voting is very close and i'd like to wait on Sammyt to reply before i decide what i'll do)
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 19:55
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
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Lynch TMM
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| weirdskyfan64 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 20:01
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1387
Joined: 15-03-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Right then. I’ve returned, looked through the evidence, and...
Lynch hillis
Disclaimer- Most of my posts are me thinking aloud. And most of what I think is rubbish.
Winner of a FIFA Prediction Fair Play Award (a phrase becoming increasingly ironic)
"... Because he (me) has a sound tactical mind in general..." jandal7, at 9:30 am GMT on 12th May 2016
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
