@Hillis - I mean, it's not like you have to be telling the truth and could be trying to throw Ian off your trail so he doesn't find out you're mafia.
It's going to take more than your word to change my mind on you.
@Trek - Tired? Good excuse, just what a mafia man would say after a night out killing people!
And i know Raziz was quiet last time as well, doesn't mean he can't be suspicious because he's Aussie. They're all criminals!
hillis91 wrote:
I you TMM look a page back and read through Aquarius's posts and my answers, you should find my explenation. I came forward to make sure we did not waste another night with a investigation.
I've had my eye on Trek for a while now. I strongly belive he is on the bad side of things.
You did happen to have a 'hunch' on me before anybody had spoken.
Haha, true that. And then it got strengthen through my first investigation. And then weakend by the second investigation saying you're a townie. Like i said in my post. Not sure about anything right now.
TheManxMissile wrote:
@Hillis - I mean, it's not like you have to be telling the truth and could be trying to throw Ian off your trail so he doesn't find out you're mafia.
It's going to take more than your word to change my mind on you.
@Trek - Tired? Good excuse, just what a mafia man would say after a night out killing people!
And i know Raziz was quiet last time as well, doesn't mean he can't be suspicious because he's Aussie. They're all criminals!
1. Feel free. We will be wasting a night of investigation. Which in my mind is pretty stupid.
TheManxMissile wrote:
@Trek - Tired? Good excuse, just what a mafia man would say after a night out killing people!
And i know Raziz was quiet last time as well, doesn't mean he can't be suspicious because he's Aussie. They're all criminals!
I get that you're joking now, but the day took place between 9:30 PM and 7:00 AM for us Aussies.
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Given Hillis is statistically (in terms of percentage chance, I mean( the least likely player aside from Ian to be mafia with nobody counter claiming him, I wouldn't be lynching him at all yet.
I caught up on all of the conversations and at this point I am unsure of who to lynch. It is hard to just jump on the hillis bandwagon and nobody else has been really mentioned to be a suspect.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
TheManxMissile wrote:
My other suspicions are on raziz, trek, marco and selwink, i.e. the ones who didn't lynch.
Mostly Trek who was active online in the game and discussion but did not get in on the lynching! Was he trying to save his mafia pal?
Once again I was away for work throughout the entire weekend. In hindsight I maybe should not have signed up... At least I should be here during this other fine day of lynching
Marcovdw wrote:
I was inclined to say "Lynch hillis" but why would a maffiosi lie about being the confused cop?
To try and stop Ian investigating him and finding out he's actually Mafia. The double bluff is a risk but when the detective is so open they have to keep his attention somewhere else as much as possible.
Although it looks like no-one's going to join me on the lynch, which is a shame...
The thing is with hillis, is that if he wasn't the CC, somebody would have additionally claimed that they are the detective/CC by now, since nobody has there are two possibilities:
A. Hillis is telling the truth.
B. Sammyt/Croatia was the real CC.
Statistically option A has an 11/13 chance and option B has a 2/13 chance, statistically he's more likely to be the real CC, especially because it'd be an incredibly risky move to claim it in the hope that Sammyt/Croatia was it, given that they gave no indication to being the detective.
Thus, I think we should believe hillis for now.
I've got no leads, I'm going to cast a Lynch Nobody vote to balance out TMM's vote on hillis, however, I think we should aim to lynch somebody today, so imo we should keep airing our suspicions as has been done. Perhaps getting somebody not so active like Raziz/Bikex could be a solution as there's less risk?
Also, imo masons should still claim, makes Ian's job much easier having 2 less guys to check!
trekbmc wrote:
The thing is with hillis, is that if he wasn't the CC, somebody would have additionally claimed that they are the detective/CC by now, since nobody has there are two possibilities:
A. Hillis is telling the truth.
B. Sammyt/Croatia was the real CC.
Statistically option A has an 11/13 chance and option B has a 2/13 chance, statistically he's more likely to be the real CC, especially because it'd be an incredibly risky move to claim it in the hope that Sammyt/Croatia was it, given that they gave no indication to being the detective.
Your maths is waaaaay off.
Hillis being CC is not 11/13, but closer to 1/9. You need to remove the detective, doctor and two mafia members from the potential list, and then it's still only 1 because he's one person not 11 people.
Sammy/Croatia would sit at 2/15(ish) given we didn't know other roles at the time and other people were still alive. 2/15 becomes 1/7.5, making them more likely to be the CC than Hillis.
Can't be bothered to do a full run through on Sammy/Croatia odds of being the CC but it's more likely than Hillis being it.
The argument of it being a risky move is better to use than statistics, but still leaves room for doubt. With the detective known, alive and protected the Mafia have to do something to keep themselves out of the spotlight and making a claim of being a CC is the best bet there.
Claiming Masons is dangerous because there's two and only one needs to be alive to ruin that move. Claiming to be the Doctor is as risky, but as the Doctor can actively influence the game you'd be busted the next day if you're lying.
Basically, i really don't trust Hillis claim at all. And i don't trust trek for not getting in on the lynching wagon.
No idea what Ian's plan is but we could make his job easier by taking someone out without weakening our position. We know Hillis isn't the doctor so Ian will still be safe to investigate if he's dead. c'mon people...
Sorry for being inactive until now, I'll try to get more involved from now on.
I'm now shortly gonna tell you my thoughts from reading the last pages, but most what I think has already been said.
Firstly, it is great we could eliminate a mafia guy already so early, good job Ian!
The doctor save proved, Ian is indeed the detective. @jandal: Why was the name of who the doctor saved made public this time? Last time we only knew later TMM saved himself.
Besides Ian, I completely trust hillis to be the other detective. Trek displayed the statistics, that there is a 11/13 chance he told the truth and imo the real probability of hillis being the CC is 95+%, as additionally to the 11/13 chance in most cases no mafia member would choose this tactic, as they obviously don't know if the CC is still alive.
Looking at this, it would be insanely stupid to waste one of Ian's investigations on hillis and even more stupid to lynch him. This makes me suspect anyone that suggested that, namely TMM and Aquarius, possibly trying to lead the town the wrong way.
I agree that at some point the masons should reveal themselves to reduce the number of players, Ian has to investigate. Maybe also the gunsmith can come forth. I believe the highest priority should be to make Ian's job as easy as possible. Obviously the gunsmith should give Ian a gun, so Ian can shoot the next mafia guy he finds directly to avoid being bombed, in case it's the terrorist.
It's difficult to get to any conclusions from the voting pattern of wsf's lynching. I believe, that as soon as his cover was blown, the mafia guys could have hid in between the town by voting to lynch wsf. But if wsf was the terrorist, the other mafia members might have waited for him to log in and use his talent. That's why I agree that anyone who was online and didn't vote to lynch wsf raises suspicions. At this point in time it was of the highest interest of the town to end the day as soon as possible. Looking at the thread, I notice trekmbmc and marco posting, but not lynching wsf. Maybe we should keep an eye on them. Trek's explanation of why he didn't lynch does not make me completely happy.
Do I understand correctly, that Ian being saved by the doctor, confirms to 100% he is a townie? Otherwise it could've been a very smart tactical move, removing a dead weight mafia guy, who doesn't log in and establishing the trust of the town. After all, the chance of investigating a mafia guy in the first night is very slim.
But this is just some crazy thought, I am certain this was not the case, as also other factors play in there.
This leaves me with three lists for now, save, keep an eye on and other:
Save: Ian Butler, Hillis
Keep an Eye on: Marco, TMM, trekbmc, Aquarius
Other: bbl, Selwink, jseadog, Waghlon, ryant, Raziz, (me)
Among the latter two lists we have two mafias, the doctor, possibly two masons and the gunsmith, if still alive. If the latter three identify theirselves, that leaves 7 players to make up the two mafia guys. Ian has investigated Waghlon already so has to do 6 more to find another mafia guy, before then focusing on the godfather.
To clarify, for me there is no big difference between the keep an eye on list and the other, the first just includes players that I found to have acted at least a little bit suspicious like explained above.
Aquarius97 wrote:
If you want to focus on a inactive player, Bikex hasn't been online since the game started, so he can't be the doctor.
You are correct, I'm not the doctor.
I just came to post my text did take longer than anticipated, I have only read until trekbmc's post for that.
@TMM: You are right, trekbmc's math is not exactly true, but still I don't understand why it would be more likely that the CC is dead already, then hillis being it..
Trekbmc said it would be 11/13 because if hillis was not the CC, the reall CC, if still alive, would have come out to tell hillis is lying and the chance of the CC being alive is higher than him being dead.
Bikex wrote:
@TMM: You are right, trekbmc's math is not exactly true, but still I don't understand why it would be more likely that the CC is dead already, then hillis being it..
Trekbmc said it would be 11/13 because if hillis was not the CC, the reall CC, if still alive, would have come out to tell hillis is lying and the chance of the CC being alive is higher than him being dead.
11/13 means there are 11 town left out of 13 players. 1 is Detective (Ian), 1 is Doctor (unknown), 2 are mafia (unknown). Plus there's a CC, a Gunsmith and 2 Masons as well who could be alive or dead.
So we can take away the other two known town roles, 9 people can be the CC. Hillis doesn't get better adds than anyone else just because he claimed something. So it's 1-in-9 chance he's the CC as claimed.
If we go back a couple of turns, we can eliminate Ian, Doctor and WSF from the maths. Wich would be 2 out of 13(ish) people. 2/13(ish) becomes 1/6.5(ish) which is more likely than 1/9.
That's why Trek's math doesn't work, it's wrong maths. But i wouldn't base anything in this game of statistics because no-one has the full data available, so any maths if going to be flawed.
I don't trust Hillis claim, i just don't. I think it's a diversionary tactic to keep Ian away.
I don't trust Trek for not getting in on the lynch when it was fairly clear what was going to happen (Either Ian was right or Ian was going to die the next day). Doing nothing to me seems like a move to try and keep someone alive, maybe long enough to blow up or fire a gun if they could.
That's the focus for me, i just had to point out bad maths to protect the town from making decisions on incorrect logic.
Hence the lynch hillis movement. Although i could easily lynch trek instead...
I understand you better now, however I still disagree. I believe if hillis was lying and the real CC was still alive, he would have told so. The general chance of the CC still being alive is higher than him being dead. That makes hillis the most likely CC in my book. Also the timing of hillis' announcement makes me believe him. If he was mafia he'd have known he'd loose a partner in wsf soon and I doubt he'd risk being uncovered as a fraud at that point in time, as that would only leave one more mafia guy. After Ian I think hillis is the next most trustable player atm.
Like said earlier, I do share your suspicions on trek, though. Him waiting so long with his lynch vote is indeed concerning.
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