It's time now for the crown jewel of the autumn calendar, the final monument of the season, and the curtain call for the Pro Tour. I am of course referring to La classica delle foglie morte - the Classic of the Falling Leaves - the Giro di Lombardia!
For a second consecutive year the route runs from Varese to Bergamo. 255km, perhaps an easier version of the parcours than other editions but long, arduous and still full of the tough climbs and technical descents for which this race is known. The iconic Madonna del Ghisallo (and accompanying Muro di Sormano) is climbed in the first half of the race here and is the only real climb of note in that stretch. The real festivities begin with 93km to go as the peloton take on the Colle Gallo (5.7k at 7.1%), before the race's toughest climb of the Passo di Ganda (8.4k at 7%) - which features the climb of the Bracca (1.6k at 9.4%) on its descent for good measure. The final major climb is the Forcella de Berbenno (8.8k at 4.6%) - those numbers being deceptive given the second half is much sharper than the first - which tops out with 26km to go. A descent and undulating run-in to Bergamo could be a procession for a gunslinging attacker, or the setting for a decisive moment. The climb of Bergamo Alta (1.3k at 9%) with 6km to go is surely a site for fireworks if they haven't come yet - though last year the attack of Valter and Quita was heartbreakingly not enough as they were caught by the charging favourites on the streets of Bergamo.
1
Joseph Areruya
Xero Racing
6h51'22
2
Attila Valter
Aker - MOT
s.t.
3
Ronnilan Quita
King Power
s.t.
4
Yevgeniy Gidich
King Power
s.t.
5
Mauro Schmid
Jura GIANTS
s.t.
6
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
s.t.
7
Davide Formolo
Rabobank
s.t.
8
Mauri Vansevenant
Fastned
s.t.
9
Sean De Bie
Lidl Cycling
s.t.
10
Sergio Higuita
Oxxo - Frisby
s.t.
Let's take a look at last year's edition, then, as our only illustration of this parcours. Since 2014 this race has either been decided by a group of three (Ponzi in 2015, Spilak in 2017, and Sagan in 2022 being the victors) or a group of more than 10. In 2024 it was almost a duo who crossed the line together, and indeed Attila Valter and Ronnilan Quita held off everyone but the Rwandan Champion Joseph Areruya, the Xero star claiming his and his team's first Monument victory with a rocket sprint after an uncharacteristically quiet race. Despite the bunched finish the hostilities started from way out, with Herklotz going clear over the Colle Gallo and Vansevenant with one of his usual long-range moves forcing a selection on the Passo di Ganda.
The Former Victors
MON
HIL
STA
RES
ACC
Herklotz
84
81
79
80
76
Lopez
80
84
76
74
78
Areruya
81
81
76
78
76
Yates
69
80
76
69
79
Four former victors line up in this race. As mentioned, Joseph Areruya is the most recent as the defending champion, while Silvio Herklotz won in 2023, Simon Yates in 2021, and Miguel Angel Lopez in 2020. With respect to the Brit, whose victory in the Ronde van Nederland and 900-point season shows he's still a dangerous man to bring over the hills to a sprint, it should surprise nobody that we focus on the big three here.
There's plenty of ways to slice this trio. The most obvious, most unkind, and perhaps still, some would say, most true, is Herklotz and his two ladies-in-waiting - eternal bridesmaids, left fighting for his scraps. Though that hasn't quite been true, as despite never being favoured over the German, both give him more trouble than he'd ever admit.
Each have one victory here in Lombardia. Areruya and Herklotz, as well as winning the last two editions here, also won the last two runnings of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, giving both two monuments to Lopez's one. Meanwhile, the third and perhaps most prized monument these guys compete in - the Road Race World Championships - tells a different story. Herklotz has two. Lopez has one - at the expense of Areruya last year (who instead has a B Road Race victory), a memory the Rwandan may well carry to his grave. The two have a rivalry that was a two before it added a third, lasting since the PTHC level in 2022 and 2023.
The Rainbow jersey season has been an up-and-down one for the Colombian - the Clasica San Sebastian his other outright race win next to Scandinavia. He's beaten Areruya in the Balkans as well, while losing to both in Luxembourg and Liege (where Herklotz was 2nd). He hasn't seen too much else of the other two, who both attended a Grand Tour last month in Spain. Herklotz took his customary GC victory, with Areruya in 3rd.
The team support favours Areruya. He's brought Olivier as a true luxury domestique, while one of the most interesting storylines of their seasons has been his closest lieutenant, Blums, who arrived from Evonik having served Lopez in that role since Areruya was still riding in Avenir. That's not to call the other support weak, though. Arndt and Madouas are worthy lieutenants to match Blums, while Schinnagel and Calmejane have both won stage races this season - including the German beating both Lopez and Areruya on Herklotz's behalf in Balkans - what a sting that must have been for those two.
How to separate them as riders themselves? Herklotz is the best, really. The best on longer climbs, for sure. Lopez the best on shorter climbs. Areruya somewhere in between - there isn't a race on the calendar you'd favour him over both, but he finds his way sure enough. Usually known as an aggressive rider, he's moderated himself to great effect in each of his Monument victories. Lopez is far from a wheelsucker but perhaps usually somewhat quieter. Herklotz does what he likes, but that expectation to be on the front foot may be what causes him to win less than he should in these situations. A Grand Tour averages out. In a one-day classic, anything can happen, and there's no redemption until the next time you line up against these guys.
The Future Victors?
MON
HIL
STA
RES
ACC
Higuita
79
80
76
78
75
Gidich
76
83
78
77
75
Pogacar
83
76
79
80
72
Valter
78
80
76
75
78
Vansevenant
74
81
79
78
80
Formolo
78
79
75
75
70
Champoussin
79
79
76
76
76
Aranburu
77
80
70
79
71
Mohoric
71
83
78
72
77
Carthy
81
75
77
76
69
Sivakov
82
72
79
77
69
Latour
81
75
80
78
74
Schmid
76
79
73
78
79
While that's a worthy amount of attention paid to the headliners, the worst thing we - or indeed they - could do is just focus on themselves. Many names alongside them on the startlist are more than capable of adding their names to the winners' list here before anyone gets a repeat.
Two in-form puncheurs with podium pedigree here are probably the first names deserving of mention. Valter has momentum on his side. 3rd in 2023, 2nd in 2024, the only man on the podium twice. Usually deployed as a pure puncheur, he placed 9th in the Vuelta a España in September to prove his merit on longer climbs, if his past here wasn't enough. Not the most consistent season for the Hungarian, but he won the Amstel Gold Race for the second year running ahead of Lopez and most of the names in this second list. Another former Amstel winner Gidich also has victories this year - he beat Areruya and three-time defending champion Lopez in La Fleche Wallonne and also Lopez again in the recent Grand Prix Cycliste, while also pipping both Areruya and Herklotz to the podium in Scandinavia. He was 2nd to Sagan in 2022 and 4th last year, and can never be counted out in this race.
While their pedigree here doesn't match those two, two riders who know how to beat the favourites here better than anyone are Sergio Higuita and Mauri Vansevenant. Higuita is, as mentioned, the only man to beat all three of Herklotz, Areruya, and Lopez in a race in the last two seasons, with his excellent victory in Luxembourg delighting fans and his team, who have since gone on an excellent run and look like defying pre-season expectations by remaining in the division. He is one of the highest-ranking riders present in the race - one of the only ones ahead is Milano - Sanremo winner Vansevenant. Quite simply one of the best in the world - a fan favourite for his daring attacks, not afriad of a single rider in the peloton, and given he often has the legs to back up his heart, someone who strikes fear into every other rider present. He also beat Areruya and Herklotz in Scandinavia, while recently taking out the Japan Cup ahead of Lopez. Normally known for his rivalry with Areruya's teammate Pidcock, the Belgian will turn his sights on the defending champion as their teams battle for 10th spot in the rankings - both of their Team Goals.
Elsewhere, Tadej Pogacar and Pavel Sivakov stand as the best climbers (barring Herklotz) in attendance. 2nd in the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France respectively, both are here searching only for the top step on the podium given their quality. Neither are known for their one-day racing, but it's hard to imagine them as anything other than serious contenders. Also intriguing propositions are a pair of pairs, fighting each other for the rankings podium perhaps? Rabobank bring Formolo and Champoussin, while Carlsberg have Aranburu and Carthy. Formolo is one of the most consistent riders in this race in recent years - since 2019 he's been 14th, 16th, 4th, 8th, 5th, and 7th. One of his favourite races on the calendar and always good for some big late-season points for his teams. Champoussin has had a great year and looked in good nick in the Vuelta, 2nd in the KoM standings. The Carlsberg duo rode together there, and both had up and down races but could end up happy with their performances as they lead their team to the Team Standings victory. Aranburu is built for this sort of thing but has never lived up to expectations in one-day races - though he was 2nd in the Clasica San Sebastian earlier this season.
Also Watch Out For
MON
HIL
STA
RES
ACC
Buchmann
75
80
71
72
71
Mas
78
77
74
74
77
De Plus
77
79
74
73
72
Olivier
80
75
75
79
70
Carboni
79
76
73
73
69
Schlegel
79
77
71
74
75
Bagioli
73
80
77
73
78
Kinoshita
70
81
77
74
74
Eastman
81
70
75
74
68
Skujins
68
81
77
74
73
Many other names to be on the look out for - this race has been so open in recent years in terms of the bunch finish that on your day you can be in with a shout - even if it tends to be a group of very weathered legs arriving together, favouring the favourites even if they haven't got the gaps they've searched for.
Being the final day of the season, this race is decisive for the final rankings battles yet to be decided. We'll spotlight a few of the closest battles left up and down the table thanks to kandesbunzler26's final pre-race rankings update, and compare what final cards the teams have left to play. A reminder of the points on offer for each position:
Position
Points
1
280
2
205
3
165
4
145
5
129
6
115
7
103
8
91
9
79
10
68
11
60
12
54
13
49
14
44
15
39
16
36
17
33
18
30
19
27
20
25
21
23
22
21
23
19
24
17
25
16
26
15
27
14
28
13
29
12
30
11
31-50
10
>50
5
Plenty on offer to change the game here. 176 Pro Tour riders (plus 13 from wildcard teams DENA and Colombini - looking to play spoiler), and so a maximum of 2768 points to be distributed. Let's see where they might be headed.
The Title... Race?
1
Evonik - ELKO
7471
2
EA Vesuvio
7218
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Lopez
80
84
Mohoric
71
83
Arndt
77
74
Kirsch
79
74
Herregodts
75
75
Wirtgen
75
75
Adria
73
75
Geniets
70
78
Krasts
76
72
Ries
77
70
Calmejane
70
76
Bax
68
77
Gomez
74
69
De Bod
69
70
Mendoza
73
67
Curley
60
69
After a 726-point Praha - Karlovy Vary - Praha, EA Vesuvio have shot from 6th at the end of September to the last team standing on Evonik's road to their first ever rankings victory. Vesuvio chase a third Pro Tour title in team history, and their first in 13 years (Winners 2009, 2012; 2nd 2014-15; 3rd 2016). What would it take? Well, it's not impossible to see Mohoric gaining most of the needed 253 points through a podium. Not something he's ever done - in fact his only Top 10 finish was 8th in 2021 - but his quality on short hills and descending is dangerous if he's allowed to come over the harder climbs. Surely EA also have a chance to outscore depth-wise, with their 2-5 scorers looking like they could take on that of Evonik, who will also surely have more duties pacing in the peloton. The problem is, of course, that Evonik have one of the top favourites here, who will be looking to secure the title in style with a big result himelf. This possibility really relies on a disastrous positioning or puncture for Lopez.
The Podium
2
EA Vesuvio
7218
3
Rabobank
7025
4
King Power
6922
5
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
6857
MO
HI
MO
HI
MO
HI
MO
HI
Matej
71
83
Formolo
78
79
Gidich
76
83
Aranb.
77
80
Kirsch
79
74
Champ.
79
79
Phodin.
77
74
Carthy
81
75
Wirtg.
75
75
Kron
71
79
Simm.
74
76
Grega.
78
71
Geniets
70
78
Sossa
73
77
Gloag
76
74
Helle.
75
75
Ries
77
70
Tolhoek
75
75
Fung
77
71
Bablid.
73
74
Bax
68
77
Vader
74
69
Conca
71
75
Sulva.
71
75
De B.
69
70
Frigo
71
73
Hoang
71
72
Gogl
69
76
Curley
60
69
Kielich
60
66
Chiu
67
74
Askey
63
70
A potential four-way battle for the final two podium spots, though it seems likely that it's really between the double act of Formolo and Champoussin to defend Rabobank's 3rd place against the force of Yevgeniy Gidich, and perhaps for the other pairing of Aranburu and Carthy to attack King Power's hold on 4th.. This is one you'd favour to remain in its exact order but not be shocked to see a place change hands. With 201 points back to Sivakov's Tinkoff team, all four should feel fairly confident of their Top 5 positions though.
Clash of Titans
6
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
6656
7
ELCO - ABEA
6612
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Sivakov
82
72
Kinoshita
70
81
Skujins
68
81
Vine
77
75
Mamykin
77
72
Soulious
74
75
Trakhov
69
79
Sergis
74
75
Vingegaard
78
70
Ioannidis
75
73
Strakhov
70
78
Vila
71
77
Novikov
76
71
Davies
73
70
Tikhonin
68
77
Bonneu
65
72
Two of the oldest teams in the peloton fight for sixth place this season. You tend to favour Sivakov backed by Skujins against Kinoshita plus depth, but as one of the closest remaining races, anything can happen here.
Former Victors Chasing 14 Points
8
Indosat Ooredoo
6336
9
Team Puma - SAP
6322
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Latour
81
75
Herklotz
84
81
Zwiehoff
77
75
Madouas
75
77
Firdaus
77
73
Zimmermann
77
73
Yudha
71
77
Schinnagel
75
74
Wibisono
75
72
Schiffer
76
74
Hefnar
72
71
Egger
75
74
Silva
65
73
Kämna
77
71
Firdaus
60
59
Cemazar
74
73
10
Fastned
6130
11
Xero Racing
6116
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Vansevenant
74
81
Areruya
81
81
Guerreiro
76
77
Olivier
80
75
Teuns
74
77
Blums
77
77
Vanhoucke
77
72
Paulus
74
77
Denz
74
76
Martinez
77
72
Schelling
77
72
Martin
75
72
Vliegen
67
77
Redy
71
74
Van der Hoorn
60
70
Dzhus
76
70
The two closest races are tied - 14 points separate for 8th and 9th and behind them for 10th and 11th. Two of the top favourites are in the rear windows here - Herklotz leads Puma's chase for Indosat's 8th spot, while Areruya is tracking down Fastned in 10th.
This gap must really feel like no gap at all for Pierre Latour and Indosat - Ooredoo. However, what a story and what an instant comeback it would be after the Frenchman finished runner-up to Herklotz at the Vuelta a España a month ago to deny his team a little bit of prize money and pride. Tough to do, maybe, but far from impossible for a rider of Latour's calibre. You'd also expect his domestiques to be less tired than Silvio's doing less work in the peloton - maybe a chance at better depth scoring?
Far more tasty is what's happening 200 points behind them, between two teams in a dogfight for the final spot in the Top 10. Speaking of prize money, both managers have confirmed they have sponsor goals set for a Top 10 finish, and it's come down to this. Two teams that have developed a real rivalry - a friendly and respectful one for sure, but make no doubt of the fact they'd each desperately love to finish their season on top here. Vansevenant is usually sparring with Thomas Pidcock, but here he'll have to beat Areruya to hold off the Kiwis. Something he's done before, but not on this stage.
If this tale wasn't juicy enough, the X-factor for ero Racing might be Fastned legend Daan Olivier, who now rides in a different form of navy blue and could deny his beloved manager a Top 10 finish with a good performance here. However, Areruya is known for riding his domestiques pretty hard to the point they don't tend to hang around the peloton once their job is done, as seen at La Vuelta where there wasn't much in the way of depth scoring despite the quality in support. Could the chase of race victory be one which ultimately denies them the Top 10 even if Areruya can best Vansevenant?
Battle for Best of the Bottom Half
12
cycleYorkshire
5952
13
Aker - MOT
5875
14
Polar
5824
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Yates
69
80
Valter
78
80
Mas
78
77
Harper
75
73
Lopez
78
76
Bagioli
73
80
Bonna.
71
74
Williams
78
74
Eyob
76
76
Silva
72
73
Donovan
76
71
Barthe
73
76
Kanerva
64
79
Rodrig.
70
76
Zamba.
75
75
Asgreen
66
77
Bakke C.
73
73
McCarthy
66
81
Albanese
69
73
Swift
66
73
Oldani
73
73
Ballerini
65
71
Nuha
70
70
Lau
71
74
Not much on the line here except pride, but a really interesting battle forming around 13th position - bragging rights for the best of the bottom half. In some football leagues, this would be a title in and of itself. Aker look good value to pass cycleYorkshire really, despite Yates' winning pedigree here. However Polar, who didn't get a mention in the whole preview, should not be written off to make up one or two places, with their really impressive depth they've brought. Mas and Bagioli aren't to be written off as leaders, either, even if they don't seem on the level of Yates or Valter. The performances of Lopez and Williams could be really interesting for Aker, too.
Two Up, One Down
16
Los Pollos Hermanos
5163
17
Sony - Force India
5119
18
Gazelle
5067
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
MON
HIL
Higuita
79
80
Roson
78
76
Carboni
79
76
Carcueva
77
76
Van Dijke
73
78
Aleotti
74
78
Beltran
76
76
Ulysbayev
76
72
Warchol
79
73
Osorio
77
72
Hofstede
70
76
Malecki
73
76
Ayuso
75
71
Obando
74
72
Peters
74
76
Yamamo.
70
71
Elissonde
75
70
Budeni.
75
75
Vacek
68
69
Broxham
71
71
Vervaeke
76
73
Ulloa
66
70
Agirreb.
73
66
Senni
76
72
This is really what we're here for - the finale of what has been one of the most interesting relegation battles we've seen in years. It is honestly hard to write about this as entertainment, given after tomorrow a great team will be joining four others (those being UBS, Grieg, Lierse, and Jura) in heading down to the Pro Continental Tour next season. But as pure drama goes, nothing beats a relegation battle.
Los Pollos Hermanos as mentioned have defied pre-season expectations and hold both pole position and the best hand here after a great late-season run, culminating in the victory of Kristoffer Halvorsen in Philadelphia a few days ago giving them the lead here. Sergio Higuita will surely not be resting on any laurels and looking to firmly secure his and his team's future in the PT for another season. If he delivers, they won't be caught by either of their rivals and will stay above the drop with breathing room to spare. If he doesn't... well, he better deliver.
Sony - Force India have probably the weakest hand here. Roson and Van Dijke are solid co-leaders, but aren't at the level of Higuita, nor Carboni, Aleotti, and Warchol. Despite the presence of some good names, including Vuelta hero Broxham (without whom they would probably not be in the survival conversation), their depth doesn't match that of Gazelle, either. 52 points must feel like the breadth of a hair given what is at stake.
The former Pro Tour champions aren't in the position they would have hoped for going into the season, but bring the kind of quality depth really only they can. 8 riders you'd be surprised to see in the Top 10, but not at all to see in the Top 50. Could that quality, which not so long ago lead them to the top of the cycling world, be what keeps them in the top tier?
We'll find out all that and more tomorrow on the roads of Lombardy. The race report will be brought to you by the wonderful kandesbunzler - if you aren't excited, check your pulse. You might be dead.
Phenomenal preview, great read! LPH feels pretty safe with Higuita as the best rider among the three relegation contenders, but it looks very tight between Sony and Gazelle. As has been said plenty, it's really unfortunate one of them has to go down.
As for the race itself, I'm rooting for an Areruya repeat, of course Should be fun to follow!
Could be a struggle for Gazelle to stay up here looking at the startlist I actually think there might be a point that neither score that well and Sony stay up
This is an insanely well written final preview. Job well done mate! I can't say that I always read every single bit in these previews, but this one had me at the edge of my seat, despite playing a very minor role in this race. Awesome!
Forgot I sent Latour here - we’ve got a great team but ultimately I don’t think he’s gonna play a part like he would have in a different game version so we’re probably just here as spectators. Lot of fun storylines to follow here - would be cool for MAL to take the win and the division in style. Also looking forward to the Fastned-Xero rivalry coming to a head
Good luck to the four teams fighting to stay in the division - not much else to really add that hasn’t been said already.
For us here a big race obviously, not the highest stakes ever but the Top 10 goal is important to us and any race with Areruya, especially at this level, obviously is too so keenly anticipating it. No reason I see not to keep his monument streak going by defending his title here, but will be as tough as ever in a strong field. Interested what him and Olivier do in probably their only ever race together - have to say I forgot that scheduling choice until I looked at the startlist!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Absolutely loved the read, jandal! Thank you a lot for that, a proper treat
Feels like I'm mostly a spectacor to the thrilling battles ranking wise. Obviously hope for a big Valter race, but will first and foremost follow the fight to avoid relegation as the race progresses
The Areruya/Olivier combo will do well here. I guess they are likely to outscore Vansevenant/Guerreiro and so the top10 might be out of reach. To pass Indosat, the depth would need to be very big really.
The mountain disadvantage of Vansevenant likely plays a role here, so I need to hope for a big plus on the day.
Top5-10 is most likely, anything more would be bonus.
Great preview. Loved all the detail for the positional fights left and the id-depth view into the teams.
Don't think we have any chance to catch anyone ahead here. I think Gregaard could overperform for us, but Aranburu should in turn underperform due to the length, so it's kind of a wash. Unless we get a very lucky break, I think we would need to be satisfied with 2 or 3 minor placings here that keep us in 5th place overall. But happy if we can do more, of course!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
jt1109 wrote:
Could be a struggle for Gazelle to stay up here looking at the startlist I actually think there might be a point that neither score that well and Sony stay up
This will be your greatest achievement for the season in my eyes if you get this correct
Survival is so close but the Gazelle line-up is scary in terms of the depth scoring they might pull off. We barely have anything remotely close to that as a possibility. Hoping MVD has one last effort left in him after a long break. Hoping the rest of the team can chip in even a little bit. It going to be very tense tomorrow!
Thanks for the amazing preview jandal A very new format and the level of detailing is incredible!
It took me almost my entire break at work to read this preview - and then I wanted to go back and read it again!
What an analysis and fun way to end this season - thank you jandal! And a big thank you to all the PT reporters and managers; I rarely comment on these races since I don't know the full dynamics, but it's always fun to see your successes.
Normally, I'd be looking forward to this race - but normally, I'd have a Top 5 contender... "Thanks" to PCM24, Schmid might not even make the Top 30, so yeah, I suppose the race will be a short summary of why we're going down ^^
In another world, Schmid would now be a 77/80 rider and have all his chances to repeat last year's result, so maybe I should just dream about that instead of following the actual race
Great to see LPH most likely pulling off a miraculous save, but sad to see either Sony or Gazelle go down. The reigning champions relegating, has that already happened in MG history?
Obviously awful to see UBS joining us in PCT, really the worst case scenario for Swiss cycling Looks like Kudus winning a GT is a bad omen for his team's survival chances - won TdF last year, then relegated, won Giro this year and will likely relegate again...
Giro di Lombardia
Should be fun to follow!
Looks like Kudus winning a GT is a bad omen for his team's survival chances - won TdF last year, then relegated, won Giro this year and will likely relegate again...
