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Tour de France - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 10-03-2025 09:31
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Classics Specialist
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 Tour de France (C2) - Discussion
Good morning everyone (except people not reading this at the appropriate time) and welcome to MG's second biggest event of the year, only being beaten by the Coppa Placci in terms of prestige and points on offer. Welcome to France for the one and only Tour de France!
In the spoiler you can see the parcours of the coming three weeks, also explained in detail earlier by jandal, which can be read here.
Without further ado, let's have a look at the list of favourites. Enough mountains on offer to shake up the GC several times, and also more than 50 km of tt'ing spread out over a prologue and a longer TT.
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | PR |  |  Kudus Merhawi | 85 | 78 | 72 | 79 | 77 | 79 | 72 | |  Lecuisinier Pierre-Henri | 85 | 75 | 78 | 78 | 80 | 79 | 77 |  |  Haig Jack | 83 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 78 | 77 |  |  Padun Mark | 82 | 77 | 66 | 72 | 74 | 76 | 65 |  |  Pogacar Tadej | 82 | 76 | 76 | 79 | 80 | 80 | 75 |  |  Carthy Hugh | 81 | 75 | 67 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 65 |  |  McNulty Brandon | 81 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 75 |  |  Sivakov Pavel | 81 | 72 | 76 | 79 | 77 | 82 | 75 |  |  Aular Orluis | 81 | 72 | 70 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 70 |  |  Shikai Chen | 81 | 71 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 76 |  | Almeida Joao | 81 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 78 | 73 |  |  Warchol Bartosz | 80 | 74 | 67 | 76 | 77 | 73 | 67 |  |  Inkelaar Kevin | 80 | 70 | 64 | 75 | 76 | 79 | 64 |  |  Kirsch Alex | 79 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 71 |  |  Faglum Karlsson Marcus | 79 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 76 | 79 |
And that's quite a strong startlist! Two superb climbers in Kudus and Lecuisinier, with the former not doing spectaculary in Suisse recently, and the latter having the advantage looking at his time trial skills and generally the recent (last year's) results.
Definitely some strong competition here in the slightly worse climbers with Haig and Pogacar, who've also proven themself on several occasions in recent years. Pogacar has been victorious in France already this season, it would be quite something if he could be again. What's interesting is that at least three out of four teams of the above mentioned riders are still in (potential) relegation danger, so they're probably all hoping for a big scoring TdF here. Not only for themselves, but also to ensure their relegation rivals don't score too much.
A batch of 81 climbers will be hoping to finish at least in the top-10 and if possible top-5, as 82 climber Padun has been weak on several occasions. Of the batch of 81 mountaineers it's Carthy who's the punchiest, but McNulty, Sivakov and Shikai the better time trialists.
Time trialists! Ok, let's see who has a chance at winning the prologue and time trial.
| Nat. | Name | TT | PR |  |  Andersen Soren Kragh | 70 | 83 |  |  Ganna Filippo | 80 | 82 |  |  Chavanne Gabriel | 65 | 82 |  | Leung Chun Wing | 78 | 82 |  | Herregodts Rune | 77 | 80 | | Larsen Niklas | 74 | 80 |  |  Gonzalez Salas Mario | 80 | 80 |
We start with the prologue. Just above 7 km means the time trial strength might also be interesting to keep in mind, so that's perhaps a thing that could boost the chances of Ganna over Andersen. It will be an interesting battle for the first yellow jersey. Let's have a look at the longer TT favourites as well.
| Nat. | Name | TT | PR | | Ganna Filippo | 80 | 82 | | Gonzalez Salas Mario | 80 | 80 | | Leung Chun Wing | 78 | 82 | |  Hayter Ethan | 78 | 79 | | Thomas Benjamin | 78 | 79 | | Lecuisinier Pierre-Henri | 78 | 77 | | Bissegger Stefan | 78 | 77 |
The Italian from Xero also among the top favourites here, as the slight undulation on the parcours also might boost his chances over main competitor Gonzalez Salas here. OR perhaps Lecuisinier shows he's the ultimate stage racer and he can win the time trial himself?
Some punchy stages on the menu, let's see what puncheurs made the journey to France.
| Nat. | Name | FL | MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | SP | AC | |  Gebrezgabihier Amanuel | 68 | 70 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 67 | 69 | |  Champoussin Clement | 68 | 78 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 77 | 59 | 76 | | Storer Michael | 70 | 75 | 78 | 72 | 73 | 73 | 64 | 74 | | Kudus Merhawi | 69 | 85 | 78 | 79 | 77 | 79 | 64 | 70 | | Mas Enric | 69 | 78 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 77 | 60 | 77 | | Gladysh Roman | 72 | 70 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 71 | 76 | | Padun Mark | 67 | 82 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 76 | 60 | 75 |  | Finkler Leonardo Henrique | 69 | 69 | 77 | 76 | 71 | 70 | 68 | 75 |  | Hoelgaard Daniel | 72 | 74 | 77 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 68 | 74 | |  Madouas Valentin | 74 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 73 | 76 | 73 | 73 | | Van der Lijke Nick | 72 | 63 | 75 | 71 | 69 | 76 | 81 | 77 |  | Grosu Eduard | 73 | 64 | 73 | 74 | 70 | 79 | 83 | 80 | | Groves Kaden | 75 | 62 | 72 | 75 | 73 | 80 | 80 | 79 |
Purely looking at punch, Gebrezgabihier is the favourite here. Nevertheless, it looks slightly more realistic to see guys like Champoussin, Storer, GC rider Kudus, Mas or Gladysh score. Definitely with the sprint and acceleration of the latter, but in that case we're also looking at someone like Madouas or even top sprinters such as Van der Lijke, Grosu or Groves. Something combining these three is that they're all still currently above the relegation line with their team, but they really can't use an absolute sprinting disaster of a Tour either. Speaking about sprinters, let's have a look at the sprinters here.
| Nat. | Name | FL | HI | ST | RS | RC | SP | AC | | Grosu Eduard | 73 | 73 | 74 | 70 | 79 | 83 | 80 |  | Kanter Max | 75 | 67 | 75 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 80 |  |  Abdul Halil Mohamad Izzat Hilmi | 70 | 60 | 71 | 68 | 77 | 81 | 79 | | Van der Lijke Nick | 72 | 75 | 71 | 69 | 76 | 81 | 77 | | Jakobsen Fabio | 74 | 67 | 75 | 73 | 81 | 80 | 80 | | Groves Kaden | 75 | 72 | 75 | 73 | 80 | 80 | 79 |  | Hsu Hsuan Ping | 75 | 67 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 80 | 79 | | Walls Matthew | 74 | 61 | 73 | 71 | 73 | 80 | 78 | | Banaszek Alan | 74 | 65 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 81 |  | Rajovic Dusan | 72 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 78 | 82 | | Steimle Jannik | 74 | 70 | 71 | 69 | 74 | 78 | 80 |  | Peak Barnabas | 80 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 78 |  | Marin Gabriel | 74 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 78 |
Quite some strong names in France. Apart from the three already mentioned above, we also see other top sprinters such as Kanter, Abdul Halil and Jakobsen. And yes, I included Marin in this list because I hope this gives him some extra courage to still sprint for points.
The amazing reports will be brought to you by the legendary UlrichUlriksen, the entire startlist can be seen in the picture below!
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 10-03-2025 10:26
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2684
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Glad I didn't send Dombrowski here, I'm sure he would've managed to finish outside the top 5.
Hope Warchol can finish somewhere between GC places 10 and 15. He might also be in that sweet spot of climbers that are allowed to go in mountain stage breaks. Those are a coin flip, but if we're lucky it might help him overperform.
The rest of the team is not super strong, but Malecki is always a wildcard.
Good luck everyone!
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-03-2025 10:27
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7850
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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Dont have to say much about what my (sponsor) goal is here but this is a strong list of rivals. Particularly Kudus is someone that can be a tough challenger and Lecuisinier has shown that he is beatable this year. Hoping for the best but we will see...
Best C2 race ever
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 10-03-2025 10:49
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4844
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Now, that's a startlist... Really glad I picked the other GTs for Stüssi, no way he'd have achieved a Top 10 here. On the other hand, poor Darbellay... Top 20 would be the best I can (and actually do) expect. Hopefully he'll be allowed in breakaways early on, even though he's obviously not the best fit for those. But I definitely want more breakaway participation than in the Vuelta; Rohendi and Berthet should be nice fits, they just didn't know it yet.
Ugly to see Ganna on the startlist, means that we're not even guaranteed to get a prologue podium here... But hopefully Gabby will take his final chance at maximum power and get a great result.
Otherwise, all our hopes are on Groves. Which isn't necessarily good news for us, as betting on a sprinter can go horribly wrong as seen by Bol's no-show in Spain. However, I'm definitely hoping for Kaden to be more competitive, and in particular to be in the mix in some of the hilly stages as well. He should also be in a rather good spot in the sprinter's hierarchy - and I almost hope we'll actually do some sprint trains, having Chavanne and Vernon here as well.
Thanks for the preview and good luck to all, should hopefully be a nice fight between PHL and Kudus for the win 
And good for us that not all of our direct rivals in the relegation fight will have an outstanding race, given that startlist ^^
@Nemo, wonder how you'd tweak the ranking points tool to award more points for Placci than for Le Tour 
Agree it's a great race though, was our first ever classic win back in 2020 
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 10-03-2025 11:20
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2956
Joined: 07-08-2011
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PHL going for C2 points is crazy.
Thanks for a great preview, going to be some great few weeks of racing!
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 10-03-2025 16:51
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1324
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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It's our first Tour de France and we're glad to be the first French team starting here for some years. Though it's a shame that we're bound to the C2 restrictions for PCT teams here we took the opportunity to send a nearly entirely U25 eligible team (hoping nobody checks Pinots overall ). But seriously our motto has to be 'a break a day keeps the DS happy'. And maybe Pinot is able to actually crown his final Tour ...
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| Roman |
Posted on 10-03-2025 17:42
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4406
Joined: 29-05-2007
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Thanks a lot for the preview.
The race of the season is here for us, the podium has to be the absolute minimum, but even though PHL has to be the favourite, I have hopes Kudus may challenge him. Will be really interesting if a team is strong enough to control the race, looking at the startlists, the race may be quite a bit chaotic once again. Will be pretty interesting to see who will get lucky from breakaways in that case.
Good luck everyone.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-03-2025 20:30
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World Champion
Posts: 14000
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PCM$: 300.00
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Grosu getting the green jersey in what could be his last Grand Tour with the team would be a beautiful sight to see.
Also hoping to see some of the Colombia Champoussin in here.
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| ember |
Posted on 10-03-2025 21:38
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Team Leader
Posts: 6970
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Vive le Tour! 
Hyped for this one, like I am every season, it is the biggest race of the season, and this year it also shows in the startlist. That is great, and makes for a great race!
For us, we reeeeally want to win the prologue, that’s our big goal this year. Other than that, I hope we can chase stage results with Peak and AHJ. The former in sprints, the latter via breakaways. Though, I suspect he must try his luck early, seeing the quality and the startlist, I expect him to struggle for breakaways in the final week. |
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| ember |
Posted on 10-03-2025 21:38
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Team Leader
Posts: 6970
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Vive le Tour!
Hyped for this one, like I am every season, it is the biggest race of the season, and this year it also shows in the startlist. That is great, and makes for a great race!
For us, we reeeeally want to win the prologue, that’s our big goal this year. Other than that, I hope we can chase stage results with Peak and AHJ. The former in sprints, the latter via breakaways. Though, I suspect he must try his luck early, seeing the quality and the startlist, I expect him to struggle for breakaways in the final week. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 15-03-2025 20:55
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| seancoll |
Posted on 11-03-2025 04:28
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Domestique
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Always an amazing race and excited to see such great reports from UU throughout.
Congratulations to Ganna on the first yellow jersey! Love to see a promoting team take the first yellow - and our loanee Ganjkhanlou will be extremely honored to ride in support of the maillot jeune for as long as possible.
Hoping for a flat/hilly breakaway win to spoil the sprinters somewhere in this tour.
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| ember |
Posted on 11-03-2025 04:45
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Team Leader
Posts: 6970
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Thank you for the report, UU! Great to have the race rolling.
Painful result, though. Definitely the wrong time and place to see the prologue reign vanish
At least it should open the door for early breakaway attempts on the flat stages, with no top sprinter not the yellow jersey to defend.
Congratulations, jandal on a big, big win! Will likely mean having yellow for several days too and thus make it a brilliant start and secure lots of points too. |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 11-03-2025 07:43
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We were first ... to enter the race, but that's as much coverage we could hope for in a TT of any kind, so we're happy with it.
Thanks for Ulrich for the first of many great reports here and congrats to jandal for Ganna finally performing!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-03-2025 08:59
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World Champion
Posts: 11452
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Filippo in yellow!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Didn't believe it could happen when I (predictably) saw SKA on the startlist, but as Nemolito and Ulrich both rightly pointed out, the slightly longer prologue maybe gave him just enough of an edge. Exactly what we needed him to do to justify spending 21 of his race days here, and now it's about keeping that yellow jersey and then obviously that second week ITT and whatever Fouche can do in the mountains.
Very cool to have worn yellow in both of our first two TDF entries - not sure how long that streak can keep up but I like it so far
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| roturn |
Posted on 11-03-2025 09:37
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Cras as leader here. Weakest lineup but he might be able to go from 10th to 18th or so with ideally some KoM hunt attacks.
Time will tell, if the team can score anything here. It`s more a spectator race for us. |
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| roturn |
Posted on 11-03-2025 09:41
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Team Manager
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Cras as leader here. Weakest lineup but he might be able to go from 10th to 18th or so with ideally some KoM hunt attacks.
Time will tell, if the team can score anything here. It`s more a spectator race for us. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 11-03-2025 09:52
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5029
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A solid start in what is likely our last hoorah in PT.
Thank you to Nemo for the preview and to Ulrich for all the upcoming reports.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-03-2025 10:01
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7850
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Congrats jandal! Already made your race worthwhile!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 11-03-2025 20:45
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2944
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As always in the GTs, we hope for some attacking racing from our team. The GTs haven't been great for breaks earlier this year, but I hope for a bit other dynamics this time and that we can snatch a stage win.
Congrats to jandal on taking yellow. I guess I wasn't a complete fool for having an interest in Ganna over the winter
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 11-03-2025 23:07
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4844
Joined: 29-09-2018
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Awful. Definitely didn't expect TT skills to play any role at all, as it never did this year. Sad to see Gabby throw that chance out of the window.
And sucks even more having missed out on Ganna during transfers...
Vernon being only 2nd in U25 is pretty fitting for a bad day with much less points than expected. Maybe he could just join the break and get a few bonus seconds tomorrow, would be quite something new from us ^^
Thanks for the report.
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