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Tirreno - Adriatico Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 02-11-2024 20:57
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Directeur Sportif
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Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Tirreno - Adriatico
For 2024 Tirreno – Adriatico returns to a punchy parcours, switching with its sister race Paris – Nice. Last year in Paris-Nice the 25k TT was too much for the puncheurs and Tom Wirtgen emerged victorious. This year Tirreno-Adriatico only includes an 11k TT so the punchy riders will hope to come out on top. With the course not being one for the climbers 2023 winner Kudus doesn’t return by 2022 Tirreno winner  Gidich is back.
In addition to the TT on the finals stage the race features 3 hilly rated stages and 3 flat stages. The first hilly stage to Castelraimundo on stage 3 looks the most serious with a 10k climb mid-stage and 2 steep 3.5k ascents to Crispiero at the end. Stage 4 is also rated hilly but doesn’t seem hard enough to cause GC gaps. The final showdown before the TT will be on stage 6 with multiple laps centered around the Macerata (2.7k at 5.7%) climb where the stage finishes. That stage is probably harder than 4 but not as hard as stage 3.
Gidich leads the punchy riders with the best TT stat, strong skills on the longer climbs and equal best in the hills.
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | RS | AC | TT | PR | | Gidich | 72 | 76 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 73 |  De Bie | 72 | 70 | 83 | 75 | 74 | 71 | 67 |  Yates | 74 | 70 | 81 | 70 | 80 | 68 | 71 |  Ardila | 66 | 81 | 80 | 70 | 75 | 68 | 68 |  Higuita | 69 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 65 | 62 |  Valter | 72 | 78 | 80 | 75 | 78 | 66 | 66 |  Gesbert | 71 | 74 | 80 | 78 | 73 | 64 | 66 |  Vansevenant | 74 | 74 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 69 | 71 |  Kron | 73 | 71 | 79 | 75 | 73 | 66 | 65 |  Trakhov | 68 | 69 | 79 | 74 | 75 | 65 | 65 |  Demare | 72 | 66 | 79 | 71 | 80 | 60 | 60 |  Errazkin | 71 | 74 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 70 | 70 |  Gaudu | 73 | 71 | 78 | 75 | 70 | 66 | 66 | | Strakhov | 69 | 70 | 78 | 76 | 70 | 67 | 67 |
None of the riders on the list can match Gidich’s complete suite of skills. De Bie his equal in the hills but not as strong in the MT or IT, and given the short length of the TT his weaker prologue might hurt as well. Yates is next strongest in the hills and with his finishing ability he should have a good short at bonus seconds. Demare is the only one quicker than Yates but he may be more about stage hunting as he seems likely to suffer on Stage 3 particularly.
Ardila, Higuita, and Valter are all more complete climbers with balanced hill and mountain skills. They are also solid finishers, particularly Valter. For Arrdila the question is the quality of his secondary stats while Higuita and Valter will be suffer in the TT.
Vansevenant and Gesbert are the best of the rest although Gesbert is one of the weakest on the list in the TT. Errazkin is also solid and probably the second strongest TT rider after Gidich.
There are also a handful of strong riders who are not known as puncheurs. PCT entrant  Padun is a strong all-round climber but weak in the TT. While  Shikai and  Geoghegan Hart will hope to survive the punchy stages and then leverage their TT skills for a high GC place.  Plapp, Evenepoel and Herregodts will also try this strategy although they aren’t as good in the mountains. Another name, who doesn’t quite make this list, as he is weaker on the TT bike, is  Pidcock, who could also be a threat if he survives the climbs at the front.
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | RS | AC | TT | PR | | Padun | 67 | 82 | 77 | 74 | 75 | 66 | 65 | | Shikai | 72 | 81 | 71 | 76 | 67 | 76 | 76 | | Geoghegan Hart | 70 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 69 | 78 | 76 | | Plapp | 71 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 68 | 75 | 76 | | Herregodts | 73 | 75 | 75 | 78 | 70 | 77 | 80 | | Evenepoel | 75 | 74 | 76 | 80 | 71 | 77 | 77 |
There are also riders who are here primarily for the TT.
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | RS | AC | TT | PR | | Würtz | 77 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 70 | 83 | 79 | | Oliveira | 70 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 79 | 79 | | Norsgaard | 73 | 62 | 65 | 75 | 66 | 79 | 77 | | Geoghegan Hart | 70 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 69 | 78 | 76 | | Hayter | 78 | 66 | 70 | 78 | 73 | 78 | 79 |  Atkins | 75 | 54 | 68 | 75 | 63 | 78 | 77 | | Evenepoel | 75 | 74 | 76 | 80 | 71 | 77 | 77 | | Herregodts | 73 | 75 | 75 | 78 | 70 | 77 | 80 | | Kung | 73 | 70 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 77 | 78 | | Fernandes | 71 | 75 | 70 | 77 | 67 | 77 | 77 | | Marchewka | 65 | 64 | 60 | 75 | 64 | 77 | 77 |
A few of them notably Oliveira, Kung, and Fernandes will hope to challenge in the GC if the hilly stages are particularly non-selective. In terms of the TT itself, the field isn’t particularly deep, but one name stands out and will likely be the heavy favorite for that stage: World Champion Mads Würtz.
Finally there are the 3 sprint stages.
| Rider | FL | SP | AC | RS | | Cullaigh | 74 | 82 | 81 | 70 |  Philipsen | 74 | 81 | 80 | 70 |  Kragh Andersen | 77 | 81 | 77 | 74 | | Demare | 72 | 81 | 80 | 71 | | Abdul Halil | 70 | 81 | 79 | 68 | | Groves | 75 | 80 | 79 | 73 | | Aniolkowski | 76 | 80 | 79 | 74 | | Rodenberg | 74 | 79 | 79 | 77 | | Banaszek | 74 | 79 | 81 | 73 |  Gross | 74 | 79 | 79 | 75 | | Thijssen | 75 | 79 | 81 | 70 |
Given the 3 sprint stages and the chance to wear the leader’s jersey the sprint field is pretty deep. In addition to the 11 79+ sprinters shown there are another 13 77 and 78 sprinters. Cullaigh is a stand out name, it will be interesting to see if Yates gets involved in his leadout.
After Cullaigh, Philipsen and Demare are the most complete sprinters but Kragh Andersen is the master of the late charge and PCT man Aniolkowski has already proven he can hang with the best of the PT.
Other than Cullaigh, who has Wippert as well as Yates the most notable lead out is for Demare who brings Rodenberg and Pedersen. Abdul Halil has Girmay and Rickaert. A few others have at least partial trains. Phillipsen has Lauk to help him and Groves has Theuns.
A full complement of 24 teams here but with the triple clash 17 of them start with less than the maximum 8 riders.
Startlist
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 02-11-2024 22:02
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World Champion
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This first week in Portugal (can ignore the mountains as they won't be relevant here) have me very hopeful for Pidcock's one-week skills combining stage hunting and some toughness on the harder hills. This will be a tougher test, but a far more rewarding one at the PT level and with potential for a good GC if he does it well. Certainly hopeful he'll be in a position to take some stage wins and fight for green too. Of course this could be a complete dud as well if he struggles to compete 
Thanks for a nice preview Ulrich, looking forward to the reports!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 02-11-2024 22:44
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Not sure what to expect here...
Groves has been solid in Qatar, but not more. However, some additional difficulties in this route should rather suit him, and there are still far less top sprinters than in Qatar to compete with. Wouldn't be surprised to see 78 sprinters taking all 3 sprint stages, though - although I hope Kaden will get some Top 5s to make the trip worthwile.
Errazkin was mostly very solid in Portugal, but now he'll be the leader. He isn't particularly strong on any terrain, but compared to others doesn't have a realy weakness, either.
If the hills are as unselective as elsewhere, Küng would be our GC man, though, even with just a 10km ITT. And I wouldn't mind to finally see some breakaway attempts, mainly by Setiawa or Delco - and why not Theuns, after all?
Good luck to everyone, thanks for the preview!
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| roturn |
Posted on 03-11-2024 08:18
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Team Manager
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Small lineup here but still solid with Vansevenant being perfect for 3 stages and hopefully can gain a bit for a decent GC despite the short TT.
Bax and Denz plus Havik should be great support for him as well.
Würtz could be big here but hopefully the hills are more selective than a pure TT event in the end. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-11-2024 08:26
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Hopefully TGH can get his season back on track, we sorely need a high scoring race here!
Thanks for the preview 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 27-12-2024 02:08
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2024 08:30
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Hopefully some possibilities in the TT, and maybe some decent GC results. Let's see!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 10:37
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World Champion
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The Tasmanian trio of Remco - van der Kooij - Kron is back to lead us here. It was quite a good race for us in Tasmania with a top 10 in the GC and a second place in the sprint.
Let's see how it goes here though . The sprinters list seems to be quite long which isn't great news for van der Kooij. Depending on how selective the hilly stages will be, we will be supporting either Remco or Kron, but I guess neither is a real certain bet for something like a top 10.
Quite a few top puncheurs here. If the hilly stages don't prove to be selective enough, they are going to have a really hard time in the final time-trial. Should be a fun race!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 03-11-2024 11:47
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Even excluding the tt it's not an ideal race for higuita, but with his rd's and hoping to see most opponents in Luxembourg I figured it was worth trying
Thanks for the great preview!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 13:04
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Tour de France Champion
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Puncheur TT races don't suit us. In the past we'd send a stage racer like Kamna here and hope for the best, and in PCT it sometimes worked. We decided to skip Aranburu here this year since he could never compete for the GC in any race with a TT.
That means AKA is our main focus, which I never like because it almost always leads to disappointment—chances are he won't sprint at least one or two days he's supposed to. The other notable is Skjelmose, who gets his first opportunity to be our GC leader, albeit with very little chance of doing anything notable.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| ember |
Posted on 03-11-2024 15:20
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Hopeful for Valter here! He really should be in contention for the hilly stages, which should also bode well for a potential high GC placing. Fingers crossed for gaps and selective hilly stages!
Thank you for the preview! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 03-11-2024 20:08
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It wasn't our day. Groves was looking great on the 300m shot, but just dropped like a stone from there. Guess Aniolkowski had Philipsen's wheel under the red kite and Groves was in the wind, so just improve positioning tomorrow and he should be better off.
Congrats to P4E, looks like Aniolkowski likes PT racing quite a lot, in particular first stages.
Thanks for the report!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 03-11-2024 21:17
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World Champion
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Not a great start from Van der Kooij. He bounced back after a slow start in Portugal so hopefully that will be the case here as well. Awful start for Wurtz.
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| ember |
Posted on 03-11-2024 21:41
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Peak with a fast finish. Unfortunate he struggles to position himself, similar to how it went with Lidl last season. Hopefully he gets it right here and there, at least his flat stat should make him able to get it right once in a while. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2024 22:29
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Hopefully it will be a selective race, if not, that one will sting. Focus on breaks now!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-11-2024 04:48
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The red-hot form continues! I can't say this type of race is where I've used most of Pidcock's race days, but maybe it should be in the future. Certainly relieves the pressure of planning Areruya's limited RDs if Pidcock can have success in punchy stage races.
Had hoped this stage would swing his direction with the tiny bump I spotted at the end of the profile, and glad to see it did. Shame he couldn't grab the GC lead with the countback favouring Aniolkowski, but hopeful he can hang tough tomorrow and not be too far away from it after then, either. Can reassess GC expectations after tomorrow, but Stage 5 at the very least should be a chance at another stage - unclear how tough Stage 6 will be.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-11-2024 06:53
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Good sprint by Rajovic on stage 1, the uphill finish on stage 2 seemingly didn't suit him. That's not unexpected.
I'm really loving the attacking riding Katrasnik has shown so far and it's resulted in a few extra points. Given the position we're in, any extra points are a welcome bonus. A couple of big GC days for Geoghegan Hart now, hopefully he can continue this nice start to the race.
Congrats to the stage winners
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:10
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Hopeful that Shikai can do enough in the Hills to hold on and then make the difference in the TT on the final stage.
Thijssen not really there on Stage 1 in 11th but he does enjoy these more challenging type sprint stages as he powers through for 3rd on Stage 2. More of that from him this year please!
Pidcock, the rider that you are 
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:29
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Pidcock starting to be a bit annoying.
So far his training working well. At least stage hunting wise he is a beast and whenever he can hold on, GC points are coming as nice bonus.
Vansevenant with the more regular training 16th of the day, similar as on day 1, so being up there and attentive it seems.
Now for the harder stages I hope to see him going for the stage points. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:35
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Our hopes for this race is that Plapp can benefit from few gaps given and get a solid GC result. The next stage is the first one to decide whether that can work out well.
Silva with a good sprint on day 1!
Congrats jandal, Pidcock is such a lovely rider 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-11-2024 07:40
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Sure... Now we get Tachira feeling even in PT, 74 sprinter beats all 80+ sprinters... Good job, PCM.
Bad positioning, bad result. Repeating pattern for Groves, even on the best suited stage. Great.
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