Report will be brought to you by Luis Leon Sanchez!
For yet another year, the world's best and their eager spectators have flocked to Liege to the columination of Ardennes week. After a spring classics season of many hard fought battles, the riders are in for the toughest battle of them all to finish it off. La Doyenne is the toughest of the hilly classics, but also yields the greatest reward - a monument victory for your palmares.
The route has not changed in recent years. The riders will take on just about 250 km of unrelenting underlating terrain. The final third of the race in particular features a collection of difficult, historic hills. The finale takes the riders up the steep Côte de Saint-Nicolas before a short descent, finishing with a moderate uphill in the final kilometer.
The last few years have seen the victor come from an uphill sprint between a select group of favorites, but prior editions have also shown that a well timed attack can destroy the race, with gaps of several minutes within the top 10. It really depends on how the race shakes out. Mountain skill might play a very small role here since the climbs are longer than Amstel or Fleche, but not by much. On the other end, the uphill finish and draining length make it unlikely sprint ability will matter much. This is a pure puncheurs race, or it should be.
Favorites
Mtn
Hill
Sta
Res
Spr
Acc
Lopez
79
84
76
74
66
78
De Bie
71
84
77
76
72
75
Lutsenko
73
83
76
73
72
81
Sagan
74
83
78
74
73
76
Mohoric
71
83
78
72
67
77
Kelderman
71
82
80
75
67
72
Yates
70
81
77
70
77
80
Koretzky
71
81
77
70
71
79
Buchmann
76
81
73
74
65
73
Vakoc
71
81
75
71
71
74
Formolo
79
80
76
76
69
71
Gidich
76
80
78
77
62
75
Areruya
79
79
76
78
68
76
Benoot
75
79
75
74
69
71
Preidler
80
78
71
77
50
69
Surprisingly, the exodus of puncheurs from PT to PCT this year has left a field that is not quite at the level of years past. Nevertheless, the top puncheurs in cycling are here, and outsiders will be even more motivated, knowing their chance at a top result is perhaps at the best odds they will get in their careers.
At the moment, it's impossible to start with anyone other than Sean De Bie. De Bie is one the very best pure puncheurs in the peloton, and he has shown that this week. First, he took Amstel from a small group sprint. Then, he surprisingly took Fleche from a long range attack, overpowering and outlasting his competitors in a memorable triumph. Now, he has the rare opportunity to complete a feat few have before him: the Ardennes Triple. This will certainly be his toughest obstacle yet, but he is more than capable. De Bie was the runner up here last year, and has a solid track record. He also has a strong team behind him, and they will be all in on what could be a career defining race.
Last year's winner, and our only former winner here, is Peter Sagan, who arrived first from a group of 14 in 2020. He was also the winner back in 2018, winning from a group of six attackers. His apparent ability to finish strong from these types of groups cannot be overstated, and he seems to be on decent form, heading in after two 5th place finishes in AGR and Fleche. His team is deep, but he lacks a top leuitenant. So while he should be protected from danger early, he will need to do his own work in the finale.
On paper, Miguel Angel Lopez is still the objective favorite here. He takes over the reigns as Evonik's leader from Tom Skujins, but he's already better than the Latvian ever was. Best climber/puncheur around, and his acceleration is fierce. Very solid domestiques around him too. He hasn't had the best week so far though, with a podium in Amstel followed by only 12th in Fleche, but this is a chance to turn that narrative around.
Lutsenko is coming in with the best form besides De Bie, podiuming in both previous classics. He was 3rd here last year, and this could be the year he takes the win. Now with Isostar, his support contains an interesting array of pure puncheurs, hybrids, and climbers. If they are utliized at the proper parts of the race, this construction could be more than the sum of its parts, a result that quite often describes Isostar's success and prominence year in and year out. And, once Lutsenko wants to move, nobody around can match his attacking ability.
Speaking of support, Matej Mohoric has perhaps the best around. The Slovenian is among the best on his own, and though 7th is the best he's mustered in previous Liege's, he's had a good week with his new team, getting two 4th places. His trump card is Gidich, who is an outside contender in his own right, finishing 16th and 15th earlier this week, and is still just 25 years old. Liege's length and generally greater selectivity opens up more doors to make use of a potential numebrs advantage late in the race, if they can swing it. The team has pulled out all the stops for depth too, as even Roglic and his superdomestique Smith have made the trip here in support of the cause. It's all hands on deck.
Since his team was in CT last year and fighting relegation the year before that, Wilco Kelderman hasn't had a chance to race Liege since 2018. He's finished top 10 twice before. While he has had some doubters over several points throughout the last couple of seasons, including his own manager, he has a chance to prove them wrong here. And he can do so with the pressue off, as Philips are a PCT wildcard here, with no points or race days at stake. His amazing stamina should be in high demand for the 250 km, and this could be his year.
Simon Yates has never placed in Liege, but after years of intense training on hills, he's in a better position to do so than ever before. His sprint skills may not be well suited here, but his acceleration is just as powerful and important in an uphill finish as a flat one. Errazkin and Burke are two verys trong domestiques who will hope to help him him, the former coming off a top 20 in Fleche.
Clement Koretzky has a very long history here, though it has been of mixed results. Similarly, he has not gotten a top 10 from the previous Ardennes classics this year, which is not good for a man of his calibre. The skills are all there, though sometimes his engine can falter when the pressure is high for a prolonged amount of time. It will be interesting to see how Van Niekerk works with him here, or goes for his own glory.
The prized possession of Mapei, Emmanuel Buchmann will be hoping his Fleche (7th) was more indiciative of his form than his Amstel (19th). Buchmann is a great puncheur, though one wonders if the race length may get to him more than most. He is someone who could probably benefit most from a good superdomestique to protect him, but he does not have that luxury.
Vakoc will be counted on by ISA - Hexacta. The Czech rider must still be coming down from the disappointment of just barely failing to overtake De Bie and win Fleche, instead ending up 2nd. Will he be down on himself, or will his anger fuel him this week? He's certainly a great pure puncheur, though sometimes it feels he lacks the intangibles to really excel is a race as tough as Liege. He has never been able to crack the top 10 here before. He's got great depth behind him this time, especially Sepulveda, who has been known to outperform expectations himself.
After years of being a protoypical climber/puncheur hybrid, Formolo is still that, but he has also trained hard to improve his speed over short hills. Still, his skillset definitely favors Liege over the other Ardennes classics. If he can save some energy over the earlier, slightly more gradual climbs, he might be in a better position than the strongers climbers to make a move late.
The same could be said for Areruya, debatably to a greater extent. The Rwandan youngster is fresh off of winning the KOM competition at the Giro, where he showed his immense strength on several occasions. He has one of the biggest engines of any rider uphill in the peloton, loving long, grueling races. But unlike other tank style climbers, he's perfectly capable of countering attacks as well, which makes him extremely dangerous. This will be his first of many opportunities in Liege, and it will be very interestng to see how he comes out of it.
On the trend of climber hybrids, we should mention George Preidler too. Could a long range move be in the works? That would be his only winning chance on paper. The uphill finish neutralizes his abysmal sprinting (in)ability, but he still doesn't have a finishing kick. His inconstency has historically been just as frustrating for his managers. But he still has the strength to survive a high paced day over many climbs. He and Waeytens, a pure puncheur, will be foils for each other, so it will be interesting to see the team dynamic.
Still, there are of course even more potential contenders. Benoot would have liked it if they tore up the pavement on course, but he's still a strong puncheur. Same can be said for Gerts, who has focused more on cobbles in recent years. Tinkoff brings a trio of intriguing outsiders: Trakhov, Chernetskiy, and Kanerva. And Ben Gastauer, though he has declined a lot, and he has never seemed to be able to put it together in Liege, will give it one last go this time.
This is the single most important race for me this season. It's the one monument we have not won yet so if i could pick a single race all season long to win, this would be the one. And with all ranking ambitions going out of the window after all those disappointments in the first half of the season, i absolutely want to see Lopez race for the victory and not be content with a 6th, 7th or 8th place.
As a team that barely wins big things really, in especially I lacked a lot of classic wins but a very few in the past, the most recent run is already one of the most successful in the teams long history.
Finishing this off with a monument, which would be the very first for the team, obviously would be the highlight.
He was 2nd here before, so he can perform on that route. His team behind him is super strong. Very happy I had enough race days for Carboni to support him in Fleche and here. He showed very strong in FW, so hopefully can be again.
By a quick look the full team is strong in hills but also in mountains with 78/76 Carboni, 76/77 Zardini/Schlegel, 74/75 Denz and the more pure puncheurs 78 Barbin, 75 De Kleijn plus a solid Vanhoucke as mix and only younger talent!
The preview was awesome. Thanks for that!
Also hope that MAL will have a better race as he really should and failed in FW. A good 2nd I guess would be fine for most.
Thanks for the great preview bbl!
As mentioned we bring a team with great depth here. Hope it can help Mohoric (or even Gidich) fight for a podium result.
Awesome preview bbl, getting the hype and storyline’s building. Always enjoy the ones which take other races and previous years into account to bring us up to speed on the narratives
Looking forward to seeing how Areruya goes at his first monument but really cheering for De Bie to make some history finally getting his dues. Would also love to see some redemption for MAL too and good showings by Alexey and Wilco
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
I think this is our 3rd year in a row here as a wildcard team. No Beltran this time as I simply have too many riders that need the xp. So a breakaway appearance would be all I ask for.
Lots of riders and teams that I could cheer for, but it seems MAL is due a big result this season so I hope he can get it.
A touch dissapointing to see our numbers fail to pay off and Houle not deliver from a bunch sprint, but no complaints at all about three in the top 20 when they are 79, 77 and 75HI! Great race for us points-wise even if that's not really our goal these days
Very fun race, thanks for the great report LLS!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
We got a top 50,so compared to the other races in the Ardennes, that's okay. Can't really understand why Serrano never does anything in these races, but might just be that he's more suited to other divisions.
Cheered for De Bie and loved it that he tried, but it didn't hold all the way today. Big win for ISA!
What an ardennes campaign from Vakoc - Also Trakhov can surely ask for a wage raise after this!
Koretzky finally among the top guys and 4th obviously helps quite a lot in terms of boosting the ardennes. It was the most important race of the 3 and fortunately he delivered!
On the contrary Aidan van Niekerk AGAIN say himself even outside the top 100. To think I was going to make him 80HI and my hilly leader next season. He sure doesn't make any good advertisement for himself.
Vakoc wow. He had some great Ardennes and crowns it with a big win for ISA. And MAL indeed coming in as 2nd, which is good for Evonik and also Koretzky finally doing well.
Trakhov the weird one in all 3 races. Even more than Vakoc. Good for Tinkoff. 5th...never had imagined him to top10 in any of them
For my own team...well, what to say, 2 great ones, one awful one. 17th is obviously not enough when the triple was possible. Not even close and last from the first group shows that he didn`t spent his energy very well.
I love that he went on to the attack like 3 times. But why? He could have waited at least a bit longer or "relax" after the first attack to recover. Going again and again ruined any recovery for him which led to no energy for the final climb.
The attempt great, but he overtried it I guess.
One issue clearly the split, where most likely Carboni was caught out just like at least one more. He was needed in the end to support De Bie but must have gone missing too early.
Lutsenko/Sagan/De Bie should have cooperated a lot better. Would have been hard to catch that trio but not working at all together was not working out well for neither looking at 10/13/17 of those.
In the end the full triple of the Ardennes obviously still give me a lot and De Bie was fantastic. Just unfortunately missing out on the biggest race, which hurts a bit as at least a top5-10 was absolutely expected, but better he tries and fails than failing without trying like he did so many times before. So can`t be unhappy really.
Dang, looks like Yates got a little blocked in on the run into the finish. Nice job to still salvage a podium finish, but have to wonder what could have been if he had a clean runway for his takeoff.
Shame to see the big puncheurs missing out several attacks. They would have been better off waiting after a failed move. And as you can see in the preview, Vakoc was one of the guys I least expected to live up to his Fleche performance, but I was very wrong. Congrats Scorchio!
A couple of years ago I dropped Gaetan Pons as a 50k final guy in PCT. Today he was 11th in liege. He must have been on a +20 because his skillset looks nothing like anybody around him. Good consolation for MOL though since they were missing both of their leaders early.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
