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Tour of Qatar Discussion
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 02-11-2021 17:41
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Tour de France Champion
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It's hot, it's dry, it's sunny and it's windy. We're ready for the Tour of Qatar!
Same formula as usual. We'll start off with a short prologue just to shake things up a bit. Then it's 5 stages through the desert. All pan flat, all between 120-160k. There will be large bonuses available for the sprinters who can conquer each stage, and the GC winner will be the one who is the most consistent finisher. Beware though, one slip up in a gust of wind can lose you and your team the race.
| Name | Flat | Spr | Acc | Res | Prl |  Coquard | 73 | 84 | 83 | 74 | 79 |  Degenkolb | 76 | 84 | 81 | 71 | 67 |  Gaviria | 76 | 83 | 84 | 76 | 71 |  Ahlstrand | 74 | 83 | 82 | 73 | 72 |  Grosu | 73 | 83 | 80 | 70 | 70 |  Lo Cicero | 71 | 83 | 77 | 62 | 74 |  Groenewegen | 73 | 82 | 81 | 71 | 72 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 82 | 79 | 71 | 68 |  Swift | 72 | 82 | 79 | 67 | 68 |  Guerao | 73 | 82 | 75 | 63 | 56 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 81 | 79 | 71 | 70 |  Enger | 73 | 81 | 78 | 73 | 77 |  Kemboi | 78 | 80 | 80 | 77 | 81 |  Hsu | 75 | 80 | 79 | 70 | 69 |  Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | 66 | 67 |  Rowe | 78 | 79 | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Stepniak | 72 | 79 | 79 | 70 | 73 | | Boudat | 73 | 79 | 78 | 74 | 78 | | Holloway | 76 | 78 | 79 | 74 | 69 |
We have four former winners on the startlist here, and we'll start with the most recent. Dan Holloway returns, after winning last year in a spectacular upset. Now 34 years old, his skills have declined further, and he will not lead, instead acting as leadout man for EA Vesuvio's main man, Nick Van der Lijke. Van der Lijke is known for his ability on small hills, which will not be useful here, and his acceleration is lacking. Nevertheless, he's a top sprinter on form, and will have the guidance of a true professional.
The past winner most likely to actually win again is John Degenkolb, who triumphed in both 2016 and 2018. His top speed has not wained, and ISA - Hexacta will be counting on him for a top result. Santos is a strong leadout man for this type of race, and the team will hope he can deliver the German to where he needs to be.
Continuing with former winners, we have Grosu, who won in 2019. Another sprinter with amazing top speed but who's a tad slower to get there, he has to talent to repeat. However, he won't have the strongest team with him, at least once we get to the stage finales. Should be interesting to see how he attacks things.
Finally, there's Ben Swift. He's also a two time winner, having won all the way back in 2012, and again in 2015. Age has since sapped some of his speed, though he's still more than capable on a good day. One thing to watch is whether he can resist the winds long term though, if they get to strong. He and fellow veteran British sprinter Mark Cavendish will be looking make their mark in what could be thir last time racing here.
But there's a sizeable chance we get a new winner here, and who else should it be if not Bryan Coquard? This is a race he probably should have won by now, but he's back again in the hopes of finally fulfilling that potential. H'es got what it takes. Top speed in the peloton, with a violent burst of speed to get there. Another big advantage on paper should be his top notch prologue ability, though it remains to be seen just how much of a difference the riders will be able to make over only 6 km's. Farantakis will be his final leadout, though there are other strong flat beasts on Festina to get the train in order.
Then there's Gaviria. The 27 year old has shown flashes of brilliance in his still young career, paired with equally frequent flashes of futility and disappointment. Now making huge money for Isostar - Specialized, he's primed to earn his place at the top by showcasing his versatility, strength, and insane acceleration. His team have opted to protect him with flat beasts rather than true leadout men, so while he shouldn't have trouble staying near the front and avoiding splits, he may need to finish it off on his own.
Jonas Ahlstrand is another big money star looking for glory after inking a fresh contract with Mapei following the disbandment of his home team, Volvo. He's the archetype of a pure sprinter, and surely he feels at 31 that it's time he took the pure sprinter's stage race.
It's a similar story for Groenewegen , though he is slightly weaker and slightly younger. His uncanny knack for lasting deep into GT's probably won't help him here, but he still has the ability to win with good form.
Samolenkov, Enger, and Hsu are all great sprinters, but are just a cut below the favorites. It would take a lot of luck to win, but any of them could surprise with a high placing with a little luck and awareness. Enger has the benefit of being quite comfortable on the TT bike too.
Next we have two older riders from similar molds - high top end speed, but a hard time shifting the gears to get there, and not a lot of energy in the tank. It's only his first decline year, but it's been a while since Lo Cicero has been at the top of his game, and this might be his last chance to really come back at this level. Guerao is even worse off and will need some luck and help to place highly. At least he's only paid 55k.
But Salem Kemboi may actually be the rider to most watch out for in the GC. His prologue times are unparalleled compared to almost any of the other sprinters, and he has a massive engine that is almost too perfect for the windy deserts of Qatar, without sacrificing any acceleration. He was 2nd last year, and you know he's hungry for the opportunity to take charge and get to the top. If only Farfetch allowed maxed riders, he might have some help with that. But he's more than capable of doing it on his own too.
| Name | Flat | Res | Acc |  Andersen | 81 | 78 | 74 | | Manamalage | 81 | 64 | 56 | | Cherkasov | 80 | 74 | 75 | | Per | 79 | 75 | 74 |  Stoltz | 79 | 77 | 72 | | Brockhoff | 79 | 76 | 73 | | Culey | 79 | 76 | 70 | | Mundle | 79 | 73 | 69 | | Summerhill | 78 | 72 | 73 |
Of course, it's not a foregone conclusion that sprinters will take every stage. The chaos may allow a rouleur to steal the day with a well timed attack. Soren Kragh Andersen is always the perfect rider for that job, especially since he doesn't have a true lead sprinter to hold him back, but there are other possibilities too. That includes some top classics specialists, like Summerhill and Pedersen.
| Name | Prl | | Andersen | 83 | | Leung | 82 | | Chavanne | 82 | | Vlatos | 81 | | Schomber | 81 | | Kemboi | 81 | | Paillot | 80 | | Yatsevich | 80 |  Sütterlin | 80 | | Viennet | 80 | | Ganna | 80 | | Würtz | 79 |
Finally, we shouldn't discount that some riders will be specifically eyeing that prologue for a stage result. SKA is again the favorite, though Chavanne, Leung, and all the TT specialists will be hoping they can spoil. Special shoutout to Nils Schomber, who will be hoping to score big in one of his maybe 5 real race days of the year for Xero.
It should be a fast and fun week of racing. See you tomorrow!
Startlist:
Spoiler | Arvid | de Kleijn | Aegon - Peroni | | Bilguunjargal | Erdenebat | Aegon - Peroni | | Dylan | Groenewegen | Aegon - Peroni | | Michael | Hepburn | Aegon - Peroni | | Riccardo | Minali | Aegon - Peroni | | Jesse | Sergent | Aegon - Peroni | | Taco | van der Hoorn | Aegon - Peroni | | Gianni | Vermeersch | Aegon - Peroni | | Brendan | Canty | Amaysim Cervélo | | Ryan | Christensen | Amaysim Cervélo | | Marcus | Culey | Amaysim Cervélo | | Sondre Holst | Enger | Amaysim Cervélo | | Jan | Ghyselinck | Amaysim Cervélo | | Callum | Scotson | Amaysim Cervélo | | Danny | Summerhill | Amaysim Cervélo | | Alex | Wohler | Amaysim Cervélo | | Felix | Gall | EA Vesuvio | | Dan | Holloway | EA Vesuvio | | Bob | Jungels | EA Vesuvio | | Glenn | O'Shea | EA Vesuvio | | Janos | Pelikan | EA Vesuvio | | Samuel | Pokälä | EA Vesuvio | | Harry | Tanfield | EA Vesuvio | | Nick | Van der Lijke | EA Vesuvio | | Armands | Becis | Evonik - ELKO | | Gabriel | Chavanne | Evonik - ELKO | | Mark | Dzamastagic | Evonik - ELKO | | Ramunas | Navardauskas | Evonik - ELKO | | Krists | Neilands | Evonik - ELKO | | Jan | Polanc | Evonik - ELKO | | Yannick | Stoltz | Evonik - ELKO | | Syver | Waersted | Evonik - ELKO | | Edoardo | Affini | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Cees | Bol | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Inigo | Elosegui | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Kevin | Geniets | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Salem | Kemboi | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Yoann | Paillot | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Zisis | Soulious | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Enzo | Wouters | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Bryan | Coquard | Festina - OAKA | | Stylianos | Farantakis | Festina - OAKA | | Nikolaos | Ioannidis | Festina - OAKA | | Georgios | Karatzios | Festina - OAKA | | Ioannidis | Kiriakidis | Festina - OAKA | | Michail | Kortsidakis | Festina - OAKA | | Aimiliano | Vila | Festina - OAKA | | Panagiotis | Vlatos | Festina - OAKA | | Ildar | Arslanov | Gazelle | | Jonel | Carcueva | Gazelle | | Moreno | Hofland | Gazelle | | Marc | Potts | Gazelle | | Roman | Senyenov | Gazelle | | Mike | Teunissen | Gazelle | | Nathan | Brown | Generali | | Stefan | Kung | Generali | | Gino | Mäder | Generali | | Adrian | Malori | Generali | | Milan | Menten | Generali | | Julien | Vermote | Generali | | Soren Kragh | Andersen | Grieg-Maersk | | Arturs | Belevics | Grieg-Maersk | | Truls Engen | Korsaeth | Grieg-Maersk | | Niklas | Larsen | Grieg-Maersk | | Mads | Pedersen | Grieg-Maersk | | Erik Nordsaeter | Resell | Grieg-Maersk | | Jo Kogstad | Ringheim | Grieg-Maersk | | Mads | Würtz | Grieg-Maersk | | Munkhtulga | Erdenesuren | Huski Chocolate | | Omer | Goldstein | Huski Chocolate | | Eduard | Grosu | Huski Chocolate | | Jamal | Hibatullah | Huski Chocolate | | Maurits | Lammertink | Huski Chocolate | | Jordi | Meeus | Huski Chocolate | | Timo | Roosen | Huski Chocolate | | Bas | Van der Kooij | Huski Chocolate | | Ahmad | Arissol | ISA - Hexacta | | Erik | Baska | ISA - Hexacta | | El Mehdi | Chokri | ISA - Hexacta | | John | Degenkolb | ISA - Hexacta | | Diego Agustin | Ferreyra | ISA - Hexacta | | Salah Eddine | Mraouni | ISA - Hexacta | | Guy | Sagiv | ISA - Hexacta | | Emerson | Santos | ISA - Hexacta | | Pawel | Bernas | Isostar - Specialized | | Fernando | Gaviria | Isostar - Specialized | | Stef | Krul | Isostar - Specialized | | Barnabas | Peak | Isostar - Specialized | | David | Per | Isostar - Specialized | | Aliaksandr | Riabushenko | Isostar - Specialized | | Jonas | Rickaert | Isostar - Specialized | | Harry | Sweeny | Isostar - Specialized | | Stefan | Bissegger | Jura - Fiat | | Thomas | Boudat | Jura - Fiat | | Alexys | Brunel | Jura - Fiat | | Mikiel | Habtom | Jura - Fiat | | Benedikt | Mundle | Jura - Fiat | | Theo | Reinhardt | Jura - Fiat | | Szymon | Rekita | Jura - Fiat | | Manuel | Stocker | Jura - Fiat | | Justas | Beniusis | King Power | | Varsham | Darbinyan | King Power | | Ricardo | Ferreira | King Power | | Rune | Herregodts | King Power | | Hsuan Ping | Hsu | King Power | | Chun Wing | Leung | King Power | | Zeke | Mostov | King Power | | Michael | Vanthourenhout | King Power | | Jonas | Ahlstrand | Mapei | | Issiaka | Cisse | Mapei | | Dominik | Neuman | Mapei | | Kevin | Predatsch | Mapei | | Teten | Rohendi | Mapei | | Nihal | Silva | Mapei | | Jernej | Svab | Mapei | | Julius | van den Berg | Mapei | | Felix | English | MOL | | Viktor | Filutas | MOL | | Mujtaba | Hussein | MOL | | Steven | Kalf | MOL | | Ivano | Lo Cicero | MOL | | Krisztian | Lovassy | MOL | | Charles | Matte | MOL | | Gaetan | Pons | MOL | | Josh | Atkins | Moser - Sygic | | Christian | Bertilsson | Moser - Sygic | | Michael | Boros | Moser - Sygic | | Karel | Hnik | Moser - Sygic | | Michal | Kukrle | Moser - Sygic | | Ignacio Jesus | Prado | Moser - Sygic | | Grzegorz | Stepniak | Moser - Sygic | | Daniel | Turek | Moser - Sygic | | Jan | Brockhoff | Polar | | Ivan | Garcia Cortina | Polar | | Oscar | Guerao | Polar | | Welle | Jallays | Polar | | Ho-Ting | Kwok | Polar | | Nipuna Shira | Manamalage | Polar | | Artem | Nych | Polar | | Emilien | Viennet | Polar | | Marcel | Aregger | Team Puma - SAP | | Narankhuu | Baterdene | Team Puma - SAP | | Filippo | Ganna | Team Puma - SAP | | Lukas | Meiler | Team Puma - SAP | | Nils | Politt | Team Puma - SAP | | Jannik | Steimle | Team Puma - SAP | | Jasha | Sütterlin | Team Puma - SAP | | Domenic | Weinstein | Team Puma - SAP | | Alan | Banaszek | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Andrea | Dal Col | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Roy | Goldstein | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Artem | Samolenkov | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Dmitry | Strakhov | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Anton | Vorobev | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Kiril | Yatsevich | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Aydar | Zakarin | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | James | Fouche | Xero Racing | | Salim | Kipkemboi | Xero Racing | | Luke | Mudgway | Xero Racing | | Bachirou | Nikiema | Xero Racing | | Jamalidin | Novardianto | Xero Racing | | Luke | Rowe | Xero Racing | | Nils | Schomber | Xero Racing | | Morne | Van Niekerk | Xero Racing | | Mark | Cavendish | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Nicolay | Cherkasov | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Stepan | Kurianov | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Federico | Olei | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Ben | Swift | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Harold | Tejada | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Carlos | Verona | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Aviv | Yechezkel | Zwift Pro Cycling |
The reports will be brought to you by Nemolito!
Edited by baseballlover312 on 02-11-2021 22:54
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 02-11-2021 17:59
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
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That's going to be some tough days for Reinhardt, Boudat and Bissegger, jumping back and forth between Down Under and Qatar 
Looking forward to our first ever PT appearance - even before our first PTHC race, notably. After reporting this race twice in a row, SotD must be happy that Nemo takes it on this year. And honestly, Coquard should finally win this one! Just like bbl, I think Kemboi should be his strongest rival, as shown last year.
Thanks for the preview, bbl, and good luck with your sprinters to all PT managers 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 02-11-2021 18:23
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Obviously I'm hoping to win the race with Gaviria. I think you can't win but only loose the race in the opening prologue. Pretty hopeful of getting a train and not letting Gaviria sprint too early but having a good formula for a leadout, but we'll see. I chose not to send Scully despite the Prologue qualities to not mess with Gavirias leadout, hopefully that was a good decision.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 02-11-2021 19:34
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
Joined: 11-09-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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A big fan of the TT/prologue being first! Not quite sure how the length will affect this, as Würtz isn't that good in prologues and SKA is not a good TTer when it gets a bit longer. Hopefully the length will be just perfect for him. If so, I have hopes he can mix up in the other stages as well and getting a decent GC result.
Wasn't sure about sending Pedersen here, but it was (hopefully) in the end the best option for his last race days. Hope to see him trying something. Excited to see Larsen here as well. Fingers crossed for the Danish guys!
Bryan "Specsavers" Coquard for the win.
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-11-2021 20:05
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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This was probably the planning decision that bothered me the most. I was really unsure whether i wanted to send Eislers here. On paper, his FL+RES should be great here but
a) he is the worst prologue rider amongst all the 79+ PT sprinters (even more so when TT has a tiny effect too)
b) the slightly extended length of the prologue probably removes him out of top 40 GC contention
c) Qatar has become notorious for not awarding any gaps no matter how big they appear, usually screwing out my top sprinter with terrible prl/tt
d) in recent years the chance for decisive echelons seems to have declined here a lot
e) no outside shot at any leader jerseys due to prolog instead of epilog
f) insane sprinter startlist
g) in theory the rest of my team could benefit from not having a strong sprinter here. Chavanne and Stoltz could benefit from better positioning when recognized as the team leaders, lots of rouleurs that could do well in breaks and Dzamastagic could be freed up to do some late attacks. Well theory also suggest that Eislers should have sprinted in Tasmania S1.
So yeah, it was a well thought out decision but the "what could have been" will really bother me if i dont get a decent GC result here and/or if Eislers sucks in the replacing stage race.
Stage 1 will be crucial for us as it could already make or break the race for us. Can I ask for my first ever Qatar stage win for it? |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 02-11-2021 21:44
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Have usually avoided this race with Van der Lijke, and that paid off in a big way with Holloway last year. But this year felt worth a shot at seeing if he can be a favoured 2nd tier sprinter.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 02-11-2021 22:07
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10519
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Ultimate filler race this one, almost feel dirty I'm even fielding a team. If all 6 our riders finish the race it's gonna be an absolute win!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 02-11-2021 22:57
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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matt17br wrote:
Ultimate filler race this one, almost feel dirty I'm even fielding a team. If all 6 our riders finish the race it's gonna be an absolute win!
Indeed, original lineup. Didn't expect to meet Gino in a pan-flat race 
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-11-2021 05:02
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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I have way too many dissapointments from this race to have any sort of expectations. Let’s see what happens.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 20:03
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 03-11-2021 07:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Quite low expectations, but there's some hope for Summerhill to make things interesting when Enger hits the "I don't care" dice Given his prologue skills, Enger better should care about the sprints though. Obviously not amongst the favorites, but maybe he can grab minor bonifications at some point..
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| DarkWolf |
Posted on 03-11-2021 08:12
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1028
Joined: 21-09-2020
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Such races are not my cup of tea. I love seeing some rise on the course, a bit of a challenge thrown on route to victory. But I understand their existence nonetheless. 
Good luck to all! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 03-11-2021 12:37
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3837
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Thank you bbl for the great and detailed preview!
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| roturn |
Posted on 03-11-2021 14:05
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
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Let's see how it goes this year. Was on the good side twice in a row with Groenewegen. Hopefully making it three now.
Additionally a decent TT team and roleurs for extra chances to score.
The amount of top top sprinters and depth in this race obviously is over of the biggest all year. So hopefully not leading to too many ignored riders as the gap between 1st and 20th might be small strength wise but big scoring wise. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-11-2021 18:17
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
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Too bad our two best performing riders where Ioannidis and Farantakis and not Coquard (atleast) and Vlatos, but if they all manage to keep in touch and Coquard somewhat performes like he should (which he won’t) we could get some decent depth here.
Good Stage result, although Vlatos was likely a podium contender. Ioannidis also had a good TT in Tasmania. Hopefully something to match throughout the season so it is a solid option to train him next season.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-11-2021 18:25
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World Champion
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Oh my goodness, that was easily the most heart-pounding I've got from an ITT report in the MG! Great performance from Schomber, just so so gutted he couldn't get the win which would have been truly amazing. But still a great way to start his life as a maxed rider and gives me some faith in him, which I always had but when the haters are so loud it can be hard
And knockout... 1-0
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-11-2021 18:50
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
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That was crap. Chavanne outside the top ten, Stoltz even so bad that he doesnt make the report 
Now, i've entirely got to hope for attacks and/or early splits dropping some of the competitors...
Schom-boooooooooo-r |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 03-11-2021 20:03
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
Joined: 11-09-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Our Danish guys are on fire so far this season! Great ride from SKA to snatch the win, in the perhaps most important prologue for a rider like him given the chance to get some good GC points as well. While the others behind our top three wasn't great, three riders top 17 is great to see. Now to stay alert and try to defend the jersey for a day or two!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-11-2021 20:06
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
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Damn, if I got my AI prediction right I guess I'd have needed Gaviria to be 4-5 seconds slower in the opening prologue. If the AI is surprisingly good then it's a great result!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 03-11-2021 21:11
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
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Our first PT outing is pretty OK I'd say. Boudat's 20th place is definitely at the bottom of the expected range, but "just OK" I'd say. However, Brunel must have had a great day, being 3rd best U25 riders - which is our first "virtual" PT point, as we're not getting them in reality. Bissegger confirms the good form he's already shown in TDU so far - at least our youngsters are sending some positive signals
Rekita on the other hand must have had some terrible conditions...
Congrats to Grieg on a great win here, your TTers are really on fire in the early season! And thanks to Nemo for yet another report - Marathon Man!
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-11-2021 07:02
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
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My time trialists not really working well so far.
Sergent and Hepburn with the 2nd not really good TT this season already.
Erdenebat surprisingly the best and also Groenewegen did okay I`d say, which is most important.
Hopefully Groenewegen can gain some bonus seconds in the sprint lottery again. 1-2 good stage results might already be enough for a decent GC. |
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