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Tour of California - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 05-01-2021 08:25
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 Tour of California
Welcome to the US of A, welcome to California! You could travel the world, but nothing comes close to the golden coast. California girls are unforgettable, and let’s hope the 190 riders from 24 teams that have made the trip here will also make this an unforgettable edition. It will be the thirteenth edition of the race, with Taylor Phinney being the recold holder, having won it four times. Last year’s winner Pluchkin won’t be here, and neither will any other former winner of the race be. I wouldn’t dare calling the startlist bad, but looking at the climbers the PCT has to offer, it could definitely be stronger. Of course, this opens up an opportunity for some other riders, who normally have a very hard time beating the likes of Tenorio or Pluchkin, to now aim for the win and actually have a really good possibility to achieve their hopes and dreams. There might be only one mountain stage in the coming week, but it’s immediately a very hard one including a HC climb. There will also be 25 time-trial kilometres divided over two stages, as well as two hilly stages where time differences can be created. There will also be two flat stages, where the sprinters can do their thing, which is sprinting. Let’s have a look at the riders who will be trying to score some points with a good GC classification.
| MTN | HIL | TT | PRO | STA | RES | REC |  Denifl | 83 | 75 | 71 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 74 |  Cattaneo | 82 | 70 | 79 | 79 | 76 | 80 | 80 |  Eastman | 82 | 71 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 76 |  Guldhammer | 81 | 77 | 71 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 74 |  Uran | 81 | 73 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 80 | 75 |  Bennett | 81 | 76 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 74 | 79 |  Henao Montoya | 81 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 75 |  Preidler | 80 | 78 | 58 | 58 | 71 | 77 | 76 |  Padun | 80 | 77 | 65 | 65 | 72 | 74 | 76 |  Martin | 80 | 75 | 71 | 69 | 74 | 75 | 73 |  Nerz | 80 | 72 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 72 | 74 |  Yates | 79 | 76 | 71 | 71 | 79 | 80 | 76 | | Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 64 | 64 | 78 | 76 | 74 |  Abal | 79 | 68 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 74 | 71 | | De la Cruz | 78 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 76 | 75 |  Roson | 78 | 76 | 61 | 58 | 67 | 70 | 77 | | Konig | 78 | 74 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 74 | 70 |  Ablenado | 78 | 67 | 72 | 72 | 73 | 77 | 77 | | Kiserlovski | 78 | 73 | 70 | 69 | 69 | 72 | 69 |  Diaz | 78 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 69 | 73 | 71 | | Stancu | 78 | 69 | 66 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 73 | | Nazaret | 78 | 69 | 63 | 63 | 68 | 75 | 70 | | Areruya | 77 | 77 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 77 | 77 |  Raileanu | 77 | 77 | 63 | 65 | 74 | 73 | 76 | | Squire | 77 | 77 | 65 | 65 | 70 | 70 | 76 |  Senni | 77 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 76 | | Faiers | 77 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 76 | | Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 75 |  Scarponi | 77 | 75 | 66 | 66 | 71 | 72 | 75 | | Bartl | 77 | 72 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 75 |
When it comes to pure climbing, Denifl outskills all the other participants in this Tour of California. He is also very decent in the hills, but his physical and time-trial abilities might hinder him in his quest to GC glory. Eastman and Cattaneo might be a bit worse in the mountains and hills, but are still world-class GC riders. They will both be very hard to tire, and will also gain a lot of time on the other GC riders during the two time-trials, although home rider Eastman would have preferred one longer time trial instead of two shorter ones. Uran is definitely also one of the main contenders, who will show his skills both in the mountain stage and during the time trials. If we have a look at other decent time-trialists in the list of favourites we find Abal, who has the not so easy job of replacing Desigual’s leader Tenorio. The old Spaniard might not be the same rider he was a couple of years ago, which definitely shows in the hills, but could he be one of the surprising names in the top-10, or even top-5?
Guldhammer, Bennett, Martin, Padun, Preidler, Yates and Pomoshnikov are all decent hybrids and know how to survive both in the mountains and hills, but seem to lack the time-trial capacities to really aim for the win in California. Nevertheless, if they manage to have some superb results In the hills and mountains, they might just manage to actually surprise the bigger favourites as well by keeping their advantage. They will all be dreaming of this, but one man already knows he’s so terrible at time-trials to really have a chance at winning, even when he wins all the other stages. I’m talking about you, Preidler.
Henao Montoya and Nerz are both strong climbers, and while they are not the best puncheurs or time-trialists, they are also not the worst. They can count on some very decent domestiques, which have already proven their worth this season: Bartl and De la Cruz.
So far for the GC riders, let’s have a look at other riders who have a shot at winning one or more stages. First, the time-trialists.
| TT | PRO | STA | RES | REC | | Kittel | 81 | 81 | 74 | 70 | 68 | | Paillot | 80 | 80 | 75 | 74 | 68 |  Sergent | 80 | 80 | 69 | 74 | 71 |  Howson | 80 | 80 | 73 | 74 | 72 | | Schädlich | 80 | 80 | 70 | 71 | 73 | | Cattaneo | 79 | 79 | 76 | 80 | 80 | | Fraile | 79 | 79 | 74 | 76 | 72 | | Mottin | 79 | 79 | 67 | 74 | 69 |  Sterobo | 78 | 78 | 74 | 69 | 69 | | Janse van Rensburg | 78 | 78 | 71 | 71 | 69 | | Nareklishvili | 78 | 76 | 70 | 74 | 69 | | Van Niekerk | 78 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 72 | | Golovash | 78 | 78 | 72 | 69 | 66 | | Hofer | 78 | 78 | 74 | 72 | 68 | | Atkins | 78 | 77 | 74 | 75 | 72 |
Kittel has the best papers here, at least definitely for the prologue. If the following five stages prove too hard and tiring for him, the odds move into the favour of Howson and Schädlich. Who knows, maybe Cattaneo or even Fraile will actually come out of the mountain stage so fresh, that they have the biggest possibility of being victorious in the epilogue. Paillot and Sergent are the other names to keep an eye on, as they definitely have a good chance of winning any of the time trials themselves.
There will also be two stages for the puncheurs, if the break is caught on time of course. The best puncheurs in California are listed below.
| MON | HIL | SPR | ACC | STA | RES | REC | | Schreurs | 69 | 81 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 72 | 71 | | Chaves | 76 | 79 | 60 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 72 | | Yates | 70 | 79 | 77 | 80 | 77 | 70 | 73 | | Gebrezgabihier | 70 | 79 | 67 | 69 | 74 | 74 | 72 | | Preidler | 80 | 78 | 50 | 69 | 71 | 77 | 76 | | Guldhammer | 81 | 77 | 70 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 74 | | Padun | 80 | 77 | 60 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 76 | | Areruya | 77 | 77 | 68 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 77 | | Squire | 77 | 77 | 61 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 76 | | Raileanu | 77 | 77 | 59 | 70 | 74 | 73 | 76 | | Teklit | 70 | 77 | 64 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 70 | | Skjerping | 70 | 77 | 58 | 65 | 71 | 67 | 68 | | Dieteren | 70 | 77 | 63 | 66 | 75 | 70 | 68 | | Mudarra | 68 | 77 | 64 | 68 | 74 | 70 | 71 | | Bennett | 81 | 76 | 65 | 73 | 75 | 74 | 79 | | Yates | 79 | 76 | 67 | 76 | 79 | 80 | 76 |
Schreurs is without a doubt the best pure puncheur, but at the same time one of the worst climbers on the list mentioned above. Let’s hope for the Dutch champion that this won’t hurt him too much, and he remains a possible stage winner. Chaves, Yates and Gebrezgabihier are three other names that will be considered favourites by the bookmakers, and probably by the other riders in the peloton as well. If a reduced peloton goes to the finish with Yates, you already know the Desigual rider will degrade the others.
On the list we can also see several GC names, including Yates. Two brothers in one race, that’s always interesting.
Last but not least, let’s see what sprinters will be looking for a win in the second and/or fifth stage.
| SPR | ACC | STA | RES | REC | | Maksimov | 81 | 84 | 70 | 69 | 75 | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 74 | 70 | 79 | | Ciolek | 81 | 76 | 70 | 66 | 73 | | Bonifazio | 80 | 80 | 68 | 75 | 71 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | 73 | 66 | 78 | | Mohs | 80 | 77 | 68 | 59 | 71 | | Boivin | 79 | 80 | 74 | 70 | 79 | | Lutsyshyn | 79 | 80 | 69 | 73 | 74 | | Van der Sande | 79 | 79 | 78 | 73 | 76 | | Kalaba | 79 | 79 | 70 | 72 | 76 | | Stepniak | 79 | 79 | 70 | 70 | 75 | | Vingerling | 79 | 79 | 72 | 66 | 76 |  Aberasturi | 79 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 76 | | Havik | 79 | 76 | 74 | 68 | 75 | | Canelon | 78 | 83 | 65 | 69 | 70 | | Vaquera | 78 | 80 | 69 | 65 | 73 |
Maksimov, Zabel, Ciolek, Bonifazio and Kupfernagel seem to be the five best sprinters, with two dark horses, according to this humble reporter, being Van der Sande and Canelon.
The only thing left for me to do is to share the startlist, the only thing left for the riders to do is to win some stages and the GC!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-01-2021 08:30
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That is one ugly team we sent here. Senni might get some GC points and Bonifazio really needs to get his first win after failing me all season.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 05-01-2021 09:29
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I'd say we have a kinda weak squad for a HC race, but this is the team we have when Kudus isn't racing.
Dunbar has been great in stage races so far, but this one is probably too hard for him to be a factor in GC. Ideally Roson tries to go for KoM and the mountain stage win before getting destroyed in the TT?
Kittel needs to step up his game. He's yet to finish in the Top8 of a TT this season in 4 attempts, and here he does have a great chance to get stage + race lead in the first day. The last day will probably be too late into the race for him to win it from Cattaneo/Fraile, if he even makes the time cut on the hard days.
More than this, breakaways i hope, and maybe Valter to continue with his great form of U25 results
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 05-01-2021 09:46
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This looks doable for Uran as long as he survives the hilly stagex
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| redordead |
Posted on 05-01-2021 10:24
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I hope the trio of Nepomnyachsniy, Gilanipoor and Ablenado can provide some solid GC results. Otherwise breakaways is the way to go for every rider here.
Mottin is a waste of space in what is an excellent preview 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| quadsas |
Posted on 05-01-2021 11:44
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Hopefully Denifl wakes up and delivers a top 5 here. Dees should be able to get depth points as well
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 05-01-2021 11:54
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XP hunting and breakaway hopes only here. Will be fun to see what Aberasturi can get up to on his own. Mostly just going to enjoy the weather
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| jaxika |
Posted on 05-01-2021 13:07
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Well, we need to score here, giving in the rankings point table ou best rider is Waeytens so far |
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 05-01-2021 17:06
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Nemolito wrote:
Guldhammer, Bennett, Martin, Padun, Preidler, Yates and Pomoshnikov are all decent hybrids and know how to survive both in the mountains and hills, but seem to lack the time-trial capacities to really aim for the win in California. Nevertheless, if they manage to have some superb results In the hills and mountains, they might just manage to actually surprise the bigger favourites as well by keeping their advantage. They will all be dreaming of this, but one man already knows he’s so terrible at time-trials to really have a chance at winning, even when he wins all the other stages. I’m talking about you, Preidler.
It's not like I don't have Plan B prepared for this race - I've sent Konig as well, who proved to be very decent as both the leader and as secondary option (as seen in Hong Kong). A low key dark horse is Panayotov - while he's worse on MO and HI stat than Preidler, he's a little bit better on TT (Konig is better on TT than both, but he's also lacking high HI stat; Aasvold is with second highest HI stat)
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 05-01-2021 18:16
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Praying that Faiers and Diaz can pick up some top 15 GC points here and as we have seen this year already Boivin can mix it with better sprinters than him so praying for points there as well.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 05-01-2021 19:05
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I decided to not send/ran out of RDs for Gesink here. Not sure it was the smartest decision with that startlist. Anyway, were looking to fight for stage honours with our secondary leaders, but it's going to be tough to find success.
Guldhammer could be a good bet, perhaps?
Good luck everyone and thanks for yet another race Nemolito!
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| fintas |
Posted on 05-01-2021 19:15
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After what I saw from Montoya on the hill stages in Portugal, I don't have much hope of a good result in this race.
But if by chance he doesn't lose a lot of time on stages 3 and 4 then a top 10 may be possible.
The team was made around Montoya so Kupfernagel will not have any help in steps 2 and 5, and choosing the wheel of another rider will be the best solution for him
for me Yates is the biggest candidate for victory in this race
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 08:30
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Fairly shocking from Bennett, will be hard to claw that back especially with the epilogue to come. Nice to see Morne in white for a day or two though. Thanks for the preview and reports Nemo!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
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11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| roturn |
Posted on 06-01-2021 08:58
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Nice to see Paillot winning here, something he unfortunately was far off last year for me in most cases, though mainly important for TTT anyway.
In PCT he can use his skillset a lot more. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 06-01-2021 09:05
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Bad TTs seem to be a running theme for us this season.
Farfetch keep winning though
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 06-01-2021 09:33
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Great start from Uran!
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 09:37
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What's wrong with Kittel
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 06-01-2021 09:51
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Schädlich continues his good form with a great 2nd place.
De La Cruz and Nerz both had decent results.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 06-01-2021 19:06
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Another one for Farfetch, congrats jph!
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| redordead |
Posted on 07-01-2021 08:29
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Can't win if you don't even try.
Congrats to Berg
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
