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Jelajah SKL Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-12-2020 09:46
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 Jelajah SKL 
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Tom Jelte Slagter | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 2018 | Mohamed Shawal Anuar Aziz | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ |
Welcome to Singapore and Malaysia. Despite all measures to combat the corona virus, they are able to host the third edition of the Jelajah SKL, albeit without spectators. I've tried my best to find out what the abbreviation SKL stands for, the best I could find was a furniture store or the "Save Kuala Lumpur" organization. The first edition was won by local rider Anuar Aziz, the second was won by Slagter who rode for the local Sauber Petronas team at the time. While Anuar Aziz now rides for Sauber Petronas, the team has chosen not to participate, and Campari leaves Slagter at home, meaning we will see a new name on the history list. The winners suggest this is a race for puncheurs, but looking at the profiles it is all but a regular hills race. There are four stages in only two days, a short time trial and a regular stage on each day, so multi-disciplinity is a pro. Only 14 teams and 106 riders makes this one of the smaller startlists.
Profiles
The race starts in Singapore with a prologue. The riders then depart the city state for a flat rated stage to Malaysia, but the hills in the final part suggest it won't be a straightforward sprint. The third stage is rated as hilly and is the stage where the puncheurs are here for. Concluding the race is another very short time trial in the capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, although it should appropriately be called an epilogue.
Startlist
| Prologue | PRL | HL | SP | Prologue | PRL | HL | SP |  Zmorka | 82 | 66 | 62 |  Balloni | 78 | 66 | 63 | | Fiedler | 81 | 67 | 65 |  Sterobo | 78 | 63 | 56 | | Kittel | 81 | 64 | 60 |  Golovash | 78 | 60 | 73 |  Kemboi | 81 | 63 | 80 | Pszczolarski | 77 | 70 | 71 | | Paillot | 80 | 71 | 63 | Postlberger | 77 | 68 | 69 |  Sergent | 80 | 69 | 61 | Atkins | 77 | 68 | 61 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 60 | 61 |  Silvestre | 77 | 67 | 80 |  Cataford | 79 | 70 | 60 |  Scully | 77 | 67 | 79 |  Mottin | 79 | 61 | 51 |  Van Niekerk | 77 | 67 | 61 | | Schomber | 79 | 58 | 69 | Predatsch | 77 | 55 | 54 |
There are three important stats for the race: prologue, sprint and hill. We start with the stage favorites on the opener and closer. All four of these stages in all its history have been won by Chavanne for Sauber Petronas, but he made his way up to the PT with Evonik, thus a new specialist over short distance will stand up.
The favorite for the pro/epilogue is Zmorka. In fact, Repsol has three contenders with the Ukrainian, Kittel and Gonzalez Salas. A full podium sweep?
On such a short distance, creating large gaps is difficult. Fiedler, Paillot and Sergent are all close to the Repsol trio, and the win will likely come down to milliseconds.
A prologue specialist is not automatically a time trial specialist. Sprinters are fast over short distances and can be contenders for the stage wins. Kemboi is probably the best amongst the fast men, with honorable mentions to Silvestre and Scully.
Schomber is a special case, as he doesn't like long time trials and doesn't know how to sprint, but he is fast on the prologue, finishing tenth on the first stage last year. Despite not being a favorite, Balloni finished second tht time around.
| Sprint | SP | HL | PRL | Sprint | SP | HL | PRL | | Zabel | 81 | 69 | 55 |  Lander | 79 | 69 | 59 | | Nelson | 81 | 60 | 72 | Scully | 79 | 67 | 77 | | Silvestre | 80 | 67 | 77 | Ackermann | 77 | 77 | 68 | | Kemboi | 80 | 63 | 81 | Merino Criado | 77 | 68 | 56 | | Drapac | 80 | 53 | 60 | Favilli | 76 | 75 | 67 | | Houle | 79 | 75 | 69 |  Einhorn | 74 | 60 | 64 |
Not that many pure sprinters participating in this race, which is logical given the lack of chancess. However, having Einhorn as twelfth-best sprinter in the race is an insultingly weak field (no offense to Einhorn).
The two favorites are Zabel and Nelson. The former might be able to handle the hill but his prologue is a big letdown for a GC, while the latter will likely be one of the first to get into trouble despite being decent over a short distance.
As the sprinters stage contains a hill shortly before the end, it's worth looking at the punchy sprinters. Houle is a rider who will definitely be in contention, as are Ackermann and Favilli.
If they don't take the lead on stage one, Silvestre, Kemboi and Scully are contenders to take the jersey on stage two. They will definitely be within twenty seconds, which is the amount of bonus seconds the regular stage winners receive.
The other contenders belong to the top ten on paper are Drapac, Lander and Merino Criado, but that doesn't mean they are assured of a top ten.
| Hill | HL | PRL | SP | Mountain | MO | PRL | SP | | Di Maggio | 82 | 62 | 65 | Intxausti | 80 | 75 | 60 | | Dowsett | 80 | 63 | 66 | Konig | 78 | 73 | 59 | | Turgis | 79 | 68 | 70 | Giogieri | 78 | 67 | 55 | | Landa | 78 | 57 | 61 | Ablenado | 78 | 72 | 51 | | Guerreiro | 77 | 62 | 72 | Schleck | 77 | 61 | 52 | | Bettiol | 77 | 67 | 71 | Panayotov | 77 | 67 | 63 | | Mutsumine | 77 | 64 | 63 | Gilanipoor | 77 | 68 | 56 |  Duchesne | 77 | 68 | 69 | Vinhas | 77 | 57 | 53 | | Jung | 77 | 61 | 63 | Hill/Mountain | HL/MO | PRL | SP | | Kanepejs | 77 | 69 | 62 | Carpenter | 76 | 68 | 66 | | Afonso | 77 | 58 | 57 | Kebede | 76 | 66 | 60 | | Ackermann | 77 | 68 | 77 | De Vos | 75 | 68 | 62 | | Diggle | 77 | 70 | 64 | Dunbar | 75 | 75 | 60 |
Finally the puncheurs, where the superstars have decided to stay home. The perfect chance for a rider usually in the shadows to step out in the light.
The best puncheur is Di Maggio. He finished on the podium in the first edition, but his ability on the time trial will be his big let down. Same story for Dowsett, and most of the other puncheurs to be fair.
The puncheur with the best time trial ability is Diggle, but still far off the prologue specialists. Ackermann is the best puncheur who can also leave his mark in a sprint.
Hills are just shorter mountains, so a worth to look at these riders as well. Intxausti and Konig look like good contenders for the overall as they are not bad on the prologues, and their ability on the mountains suggest they will survive the tougher stages.
Another rider to look out for is "mister 75" Dunbar. Good in all three disciplines: mountains, hills and prologues. Unlikely he will win a stage, but the general and youth classifications are his target.
| Favorites | HL/MO | PRL | SP | Outsiders | HL/MO | PRL | SP | | Intxausti | 80 | 75 | 60 | Houle | 75 | 69 | 79 | | Konig | 78 | 73 | 59 | Debesay | 74 | 74 | 69 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 76 | 76 | 50 | Giogieri | 78 | 67 | 55 | | Ablenado | 78 | 72 | 51 | Groselj | 75 | 72 | 72 | | Bazhkou | 75 | 76 | 63 | Trofimov | 76 | 70 | 67 | | Dees | 75 | 76 | 60 | Dowsett | 80 | 63 | 66 | | Dunbar | 75 | 75 | 60 | Duchesne | 77 | 68 | 69 | | Ahmad Zamri | 75 | 75 | 59 | Gilanipoor | 77 | 68 | 56 | | Turgis | 79 | 68 | 70 | Durasek | 74 | 73 | 59 | | Cataford | 72 | 79 | 60 | Sterobo | 71 | 78 | 56 | | Di Maggio | 82 | 62 | 65 | Sergent | 69 | 80 | 61 | | Figueiredo | 76 | 72 | 59 | Silvestre | 67 | 77 | 80 | | Diggle | 77 | 70 | 64 | Scully | 67 | 77 | 79 | | Paillot | 71 | 80 | 63 | Fiedler | 67 | 81 | 65 | | Ackermann | 77 | 68 | 77 | Zmorka | 66 | 82 | 62 | | Kanepejs | 77 | 69 | 62 | Kemboi | 63 | 81 | 80 |
So, what is the winning combination for this race? You have to be able to survive the hills, not be that bad in the time trials, and sprinting is a positive but not necessarily a negative. The algorithm to determine the favorites is definitely not sound and has many flaws, but it takes into account a weighted average of MO or HL and PRL, with a bonus for high SP.
Intxausti is named as biggest favorite. Not a bad shout, he will survive the hills and will lose little time in the pro-/epilogue. Konig and Ablenado also places high, but it is based on the assumption that MO and HL are interchangeable, which is a serious simplification.
Some riders which don't show up in the individual overviews come forward here which is only logical. Nepomnyachsniy, Bazhkou and Dees can all climb and ride against the clock, so a high GC position is not unthinkable.
Dunbar is the highest ranked rider eligible for the youth classification, but also a good shout for the general classification. Local hero Ahmad Zamri is similar to the Irishman but can only focus on the latter.
Amongst the puncheurs, Turgis is the favorite apparently. He ranks a bit higher than Di Maggio, because he's not much worse in the hills but much, much better on the prologues, although that is down to the Italian's lack of skill.
Cataford is the highest ranked prologue specialist. He might not be in the lead come the final stage, but he has the skills to close a small gap in four kilometer. Same goes for Paillot.
At the very bottom we have a few riders which the algorithm doesn't rank very high, but can become an outsider due to their excellence in a certain discipline. Sergent, Fiedler and Zmorka will struggle on stage three, but if the pace is not too high they might recover their loss in the time trials.
Silvestre, Scully and Kemboi are in the same predicament, but they might want to hold on to the bonus seconds for the top three on the second stage, for which they are favorites.
However, the winner of the third stage also receives bonus seconds, and the puncheurs are favored for those. Houle has the capability to challenge on both stages appears higher on the list due to his ability in both hills and sprints, but prologues is his weak point.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 10-12-2020 10:07
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This will either be a total banger or a total fail, it's really hard to predict cause Benat is bipolar and you never know what he's gonna do. But Dees Nuts can do well, and especially Ahmad Zamri as he already has a good result in similar race under his belt.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 02:00
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| redordead |
Posted on 10-12-2020 10:23
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Despite only being able to send 6 riders here due to race clashes, we have plenty of options on paper to do something in this race.
Should be funny to see how we manage to fail this time 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-12-2020 13:59
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It all comes down to the hilly stage. IA favourite wise this should similar to Hong Kong, so i expect Dunbar to be well treated and not miss any splits. Winning GC is a long shot, but it's not so unrealistic as long as Cataford and Paillot are dropped. U25 jersey is a must though
Hopefully Zmorka can show he's the top prologuist in the divisions and win both prologues and the Points jersey. Every point counts, so Kittel and Salas have to do good prologues too, and hopefully step up for the win if Zmorka fails.
Overall, an important race for the team, and given the variability of the possible outcomes, a season-defining one
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 10-12-2020 14:48
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Will be interesting to see how AC goes here, a decent shot at stage Top10's in the TT's and he could prove tricky to shake on the limited hill stage.
I don't expect much from Ricki with the nasty late bump on Stage 2, but with clashes it was less bad to send him here in hope.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 10-12-2020 16:12
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Well, why did we chose this race... Probably because the manager was euphoric of having a 77 PRL rider?!? But that's of course not enough to be among the favorites for the stage win for Scully. Maybe he'll make it over the hills on stage 2 and sprint for a top result there?
However, we do have some hopes for stage 3 - especially bringing our two most aggressive puncheurs in Thièry and Lienhard, who will hopefully have a shot at the KoM jersey. They won't be able to keep up with the best puncheurs, but with a rather small peloton, let's see what is possible.
Thanks for the great preview!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 11-12-2020 09:48
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Guess thats okay? All our 3 GC hopefuls in decent positions incase there are gaps on S3. Just gotta hope for no strong winds on the flat stage and we should be okay
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 11-12-2020 09:57
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Meh
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| redordead |
Posted on 11-12-2020 10:47
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I hoped Mottin would have a chance at a stage result, but he's been awful in TTs so far 
Nepomnyachsniy did okay though, so I'm hoping to see some agressive racing the next 2 stages and being on the right side of any splits 
At least we're all safe and Schomber didn't win
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-12-2020 11:03
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The devil finished 4th, I can't believe it 
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 11-12-2020 12:02
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Nice to see Eenkhoorn get involved just a little
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-12-2020 13:05
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Schomber edges closer to greatness, can't wait for the epic meltdown of the rest of the Conglomerate when he takes his first win
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Heine |
Posted on 11-12-2020 14:07
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Sent a team to go for stage win and maybe a lucky GC here, will be interesting to see
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 11-12-2020 15:33
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No points, but 14th is a good TT result for us anyway
Good to see that Scully is quite close - although given his stats he could even have matched Silvestre's time... Berg are definitely on a roll right now, although Swift didn't deliver yesterday.
Lienhard did pretty well, too - he might become an option for a scoring GC result. But I'd prefer seeing him go for the KoM jersey instead - let's see.
Thanks for the report, and congrats to fintas!
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| fintas |
Posted on 11-12-2020 17:55
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what a pleasant surprise this victory was, not even in my best thoughts would I be expecting this.
The idea was to try not to waste too much time in the prologue and then try to reach the lead in the 2nd stage. With this victory, the team should be at the front of the race which can help Silvestre to get a good position.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 11-12-2020 18:19
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+7 isn't too bad for Konig - if the pieces align well, we may have a crack at the top 10 at minimum
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 11-12-2020 21:41
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Yeah, great job by Scully Too bad he couldn't follow Kemboi, but 3rd definitely is a nice result! Lienhard was in the mix, too, let's hope he'll do just as well on stage 3, where Scully will likely not be able to keep up.
Thanks for the report, and congrats to Farfetch, who definitely are on their way back up!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 11-12-2020 21:51
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Bangin stage for Farfetch, but timegaps also greatly helped us, it's entirely possible we will have 4 riders in top 20 after stage 3.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-12-2020 21:55
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RELEGATION LETS F*CKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-12-2020 22:07
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Lovely 1-2 for Farfetch. Kemboi is amazing <3
jandal7 wrote:
Schomber edges closer to greatness, can't wait for the epic meltdown of the rest of the Conglomerate when he takes his first win
Evonik has won more time trials than Schomber will win stages in his career. But i am sure he will get a great GC result here to prove his doubters wrong... 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
