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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2020
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 25-10-2020 13:41
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Format
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders receive a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Azteca - NBCSN | 1 | | Azteca - NBCSN | 0 | | 2 |  | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | 2 |  | Euskaltel - Elior | -4 | | 3 |  | GCN ProTeam | 3 | | GCN ProTeam | 0 | | 4 |  | DK Zalgiris | 4 | | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | 2 | | 5 |  | Bianchi - Campagnolo | 5 |  | Netia - Vonin | -2 | | 6 | | Euskaltel - Elior | 6 | | Bianchi - Campagnolo | 1 | | 7 | | Netia - Vonin | 7 | | DK Zalgiris | 3 | | 8 |  | BNZ Cycling Team | 8 |  | Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling | -1 | | 9 | | Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling | 9 |  | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | -8 | | 10 |  | Equinor Pro Cycling | 10 |  | CYBEX Platinum | -3 | | 11 |  | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | 11 |  | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | -4 | | 12 |  | Centovalli - Fiat | 12 | | Equinor Pro Cycling | 2 | | 13 | | CYBEX Platinum | 13 | | OMV Petrom-albania.al | 2 | | 14 |  | Eddie Stobart | 14 |  | McCormick Pro Cycling | -2 | | 15 | | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | 15 | | Centovalli - Fiat | 3 | | 16 | | McCormick Pro Cycling | 16 | | BNZ Cycling Team | 8 | | 17 | | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | 17 | | Eddie Stobart | 3 |
Last year the Top 7 teams were accurately predicted, albeit not quite in the final order. Further down, BNZ underperformed predictions, while Glanbia did better by some distance; Tryg also exceeding expectations.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 25-10-2020 13:41
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Category Tier Lists
Hills
| | Philips | | | | | | Centovalli | BNZ | Eddie Stobart | | | | Gjensidige | Carrefour | Carlsberg | Tryg | Sotto | | | Trans | Nordica | Sunlight | Sauber | Strava | Europcar |
With Wilco Kelderman as leader, it is no surprise that Philips top our hill ratings, with a clear gap to the rest.
But behind them, the field looks very competitive. The same rating gap that separate Philips from 2nd-rated Centovalli, then encompasses all teams down to Europcar in 15th.
The top ten individual riders are all in different teams, and while it is the presence of Moscon, Edmondson and Meyer which determines the second tier of Centovalli, BNZ and Eddie Stobart; the strength of support has certainly influenced some of the other positions.
Stage Races
| Sauber | | | | Tryg | Project: Africa | Carlsberg | Philips | | Carrefour | BNZ | Nordica | | | Europcar | Los Pollos | Centovalli | Glanbia |
The training of Ranaweera has really propelled Sauber to the top tier here, aided by support from Frankiny.
Pinot is a close second individually and a proven CT contender for Project: Africa; Carlsberg and Philips both with top riders in Warbasse and Keinath; while Tryg are in the mix - and actually 2nd for us here, with the pairing of Cort Nielsen and Lunke.
Sprints
| Carlsberg | | | | Centovalli | Nordica | | | Trans | Sunlight | | | Strava | Carrefour | Bralirwa | BNZ |
Lots of teams have sprinting options, and teams not listed with surely win sprints this season - but 9th was a suitable cutoff point in the numbers.
Can Kragh Andersen be the Holloway if this season? He is the main reason we see Carlsberg edge to the top of the tier list - with Bertilsson helping as well.
The pairing of Reinhardt and Scully has Centovalli place a close second, and the formulas give enough credit to the pure sprinting talents of Carsi, and to a lesser extent Ulanowski, to see Nordica in the mix.
Salleh, Coutinho, Bouhanni, Lavoine, Selig and Wippert all top sprinters in this division, and drive the way for their teams to make the lists.
Time Trials
| Carrefour | Glanbia | | | | | | Philips | | | Project: Africa | Carlsberg | Europcar | | Trans | | | Sauber | Los Pollos | |
It's hard to separate our top two teams in the standings. The all-round abilities of Novak and Craddock rate them highly in this domain for Carrefour and Glanbia; with Li and Downey respectively also strong - and that's key, as these two receive the largest weightings towards their teams TT scores.
Philips may have the best pure time triallist in the division in Dumoulin. Project: Africa's strength is not so much from one individual as a depth of talent - it sees them a little bit further back here, but when it comes to TTTs, they and Glanbia are the top outfits to watch.
Carlsberg have Quaade, plus the time trialling of their stage racers. Koren will be one to watch for Europcar, while Trans are worth a mention for their partnership of Steensen and MG legend Ignatiev.
Cobbles
| | Carrefour | | | | | | Los Pollos | | | | | | Philips | | | | | Carlsberg | Bralirwa | Strava | | | | | | | | | | Trans | Tryg | Sunlight | Nordica | Project: Africa | |
Carrefour top our cobbled tier, and though Los Pollos are not far behind - and may have the best individual scorer in Baugnies - the lead of Nolf, and support from Tsatevich and Scala, are what does it for Carrefour.
Philips are next. They are led by Van Lerberghe, with Paprstka, and then also Bovenhuis seen as one of the top '3rd best' riders in a team. Sinkeldam will be strong for Carlsberg, Strava have Van Avermaet, while Naesen and Okbamariam offer Bralirwa an interesting dual threat.
It was tempting to leave the tier list at just 6 for cobbles - but I've included the next set, who are bit further away. Shout out to Geraint Thomas at Trans, with Abraha in support, while there are also teams with single individuals, like Maes and Taubel, but less support, and then Project Africa with two 75 Cob options.
Climbs
| | Los Pollos | | | | | Carlsberg | Tryg | | | | | Nordica | Europcar | Carrefour | | | | Bralirwa | BNZ | Philips | Sauber | Centovalli | Project: Africa |
This category prioritises more of the mountain-only ability, as well as depth in that terrain - as a rider can't be seen as a team's best rider in this category if they are the best in another category. It has the smallest weighting of the six to overall predictions, and might not make as much sense in isolation - but I'll include it for completeness!
The abilities of Seboka and Marquez are well-liked in this category for Los Pollos to come top, having only been 10th in Stage Races.
All Category Positions
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL |  BNZ Cycling Team | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 8 |  Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | 17 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 7 |  Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 |  Carrefour - ESPN | 6 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 |  Centovalli - Fiat | 2 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 11 |  Eddie Stobart | 4 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 15 |  Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 5 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 18 | 20 |  Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | 18 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 20 | 16 |  Guave's Sunlight Cycling | 12 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 14 |  Los Pollos Hermanos | 19 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 1 |  McCormick Pro Cycling | 20 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 18 |  Nordica - Enel | 11 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 4 |  Philips | 1 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 9 |  Project: Africa | 16 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 12 |  Sauber Petronas Racing | 13 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 13 | 10 |  Sotto il sole di Riccione | 9 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 13 |  Strava | 14 | 19 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 19 |  Team Europcar | 15 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 17 | 5 |  Trans Cycling Team | 10 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 17 |  Tryg - Ritter Sport | 8 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 3 |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 25-10-2020 13:42
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Overall Predictions
R1 and R2 of my overall ranking positions are just based around those last specific position ranks, while R3 and R4 look at the rating scores awarded to teams across those categories.
The next graph shows R3 against R4, and gives a suggestion for an overall tier list.
It shows a clear Top 3 of Philips, Carlsberg and Carrefour. All expected to promote, and also to battle for the overall CT crown.
And after that, it's a most closer mix of teams - from relgating teams, to existing CT teams, to brand new teams.
The formulas look to slightly favour Nordica, they have riders who could do well across all terrains, but are not individually rounded - so there's perhaps a greater uncertainty around them. From 5th to 13th then, are 9 teams that have different orderings around the R3 and R4 ratings.
Strava and Glanbia a little off that pack - but we know what Shonak can do in planning, and Glanbia exceeded these formula's predictions last year!
Gjensidige's focus mostly on hills and talents may make for a tricky season, likewise for McCormick, who were forced to sacrifice a lot of space to bring in McNulty.
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 2 | Philips | | 3 | Carrefour - ESPN | | 4 | Nordica - Enel | | 5 | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | 6 | Centovalli - Fiat | | 7 | Los Pollos Hermanos | | 8 | BNZ Cycling Team | | 9 | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 10 | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | 11 | Project: Africa | | 12 | Team Europcar | | 13 | Trans Cycling Team | | 14 | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | 15 | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | 16 | Strava | | 17 | Eddie Stobart | | 18 | Sotto il sole di Riccione | | 19 | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | 20 | McCormick Pro Cycling |
Contributing Ranking Predictions
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | 1 | CARL | CARL | PHIL | PHIL | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 2 | CARR | PHIL | CARL | CARL | | Philips | | 3 | PHIL | CARR | CARR | CARR | | Carrefour - ESPN | | 4 | NORD | TRYG | NORD | NORD | | Nordica - Enel | | 5 | TRYG | NORD | TRYG | CENT | | Tryg - Ritter Sport | | 6 | LOS | CENT | LOS | TRYG | | Centovalli - Fiat | | 7 | CENT | BNZ | BNZ | SAUB | | Los Pollos Hermanos | | 8 | BNZ | LOS | BRAL | BNZ | | BNZ Cycling Team | | 9 | BRAL | SAUB | CENT | LOS | | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 10 | TRAN | PROJ | SAUB | PROJ | | Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes | | 11 | EURO | EURO | EURO | TRAN | | Project: Africa | | 12 | PROJ | TRAN | PROJ | EURO | | Team Europcar | | 13 | SAUB | BRAL | TRAN | BRAL | | Trans Cycling Team | | 14 | GUAV | GUAV | GUAV | GUAV | | Guave's Sunlight Cycling | | 15 | GLAN | GLAN | STRA | STRA | | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | | 16 | EDDI | STRA | GLAN | GLAN | | Strava | | 17 | STRA | SOTT | EDDI | SOTT | | Eddie Stobart | | 18 | SOTT | EDDI | SOTT | EDDI | | Sotto il sole di Riccione | | 19 | GJEN | GJEN | GJEN | GJEN | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | | 20 | MCCO | MCCO | MCCO | MCCO | | McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 25-10-2020 14:06
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Directeur Sportif
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Thanks for the preview. Signed McNulty with the logic that there is little practical difference between finishing 11th and 20th. So looks like I need to embrace that.
Am a little curious about the sprint rankings since Keough was the 2nd highest sprint scorer in CT last year. Assume that reflects my lack of sprint depth.
Keough was lucky last year and the sprint depth in the division may have improved this year but hope to do a little better than 15th. Not that 20th isn't still the right overall expectation.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 25-10-2020 14:33
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Team Manager
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Thanks for the preview. Signed McNulty with the logic that there is little practical difference between finishing 11th and 20th. So looks like I need to embrace that.
Am a little curious about the sprint rankings since Keough was the 2nd highest sprint scorer in CT last year. Assume that reflects my lack of sprint depth.
Keough was lucky last year and the sprint depth in the division may have improved this year but hope to do a little better than 15th. Not that 20th isn't still the right overall expectation.
Azteca were rated 11th in Sprints here last season, with a better 2nd sprinter than you have. If you had a rider of similar ability as Azteca's 2nd best sprinter last year, you'd be rated 10th in the Sprints category.
Keough indeed was the 2nd highest ranking sprinter come the end of the season, so you'll have to see if he can do so again. I don't think prologue stat would have really influenced the Sprinters ratings here, for example.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-10-2020 14:47
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Tour de France Champion
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Fantastic read, thanks SN!
Glad to feature on every list here, as that breadth was basically our main strategy in coming down from PCT. It also allows me to care about every race, which is just fun to follow. Especially surprised that we're so high on the TT rankings, but looking at the DB, that's a place of relative weakness in CT this season. Might have a better chance at a Vilnius placing than I thought.
Very surprised to be predicted as the favorite though! I think Philips and Carrefour are probably better than me, but I'm hoping you are right that the three of us will have a close battle for the win. Kragh Andersen's performance or lack thereof will likely be the defining factor I think, and it could go either way with sprints. Like in 2016, I'll be happy to get a top 5 and automatic promotion.
Thank you again!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 25-10-2020 15:27
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Tour de France Champion
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Thanks SN, pleasure to read and see the CT field from this perspective. Lets see if we can plan well enough to get a bit better than that.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 25-10-2020 18:02
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If I finished 10th, I'd be absolutely thrilled  Very cool approach, thank you SN 
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 25-10-2020 18:59
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6th is about where I'd expect us to be - likely in the mix for promotion, but not quite good enough yet. I'd take it
Just a question concerning the calculations: Do you equally weigh all of the categories? I mean, we have (I think) about 90% of our RDs that fall into one of the two categories where we're ranked 2nd, whereas we hardly have any cobbles at all (just the mandatory ones), and in terms of TTs mainly the short ones where hopefully Scully will be able to do well. I mean, you probably can't take into account the schedule of every team to base the predicitions on...
Just to say that there's some hope we'll do even better, but 6th would still be fine
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-10-2020 19:20
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Grand Tour Champion
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Always one of the better predictions around. I very much agree with the top trio looking stronger than the rest.
Strava probably a bit underrated. Their ignorance of multiple terrains is difficult to accurately predict with formulas and makes them underrated here - similar to most of my former setups.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| MacC |
Posted on 25-10-2020 19:27
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Sprinter
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Well, I outperformed the predictions last year and my team (Glanbia) is slightly stronger so here's hoping |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-12-2024 16:16
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 25-10-2020 20:56
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Fabianski wrote:
Just a question concerning the calculations: Do you equally weigh all of the categories? I mean, we have (I think) about 90% of our RDs that fall into one of the two categories where we're ranked 2nd, whereas we hardly have any cobbles at all (just the mandatory ones), and in terms of TTs mainly the short ones where hopefully Scully will be able to do well. I mean, you probably can't take into account the schedule of every team to base the predicitions on...
Just to say that there's some hope we'll do even better, but 6th would still be fine
Only R1 doesn't have any weighting. The overall prediction together four different ways of manipulating the data, and there's certainly weighting involved in that, with the other three options. You can't easily account for exact calendar selection, or manager planning skill though - never mind luck!
You won't be the 2nd highest scoring team in 90% of your races though, I would think!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 26-10-2020 04:54
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Directeur Sportif
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Thanks for the preview SN
I mostly agree with what you've posted. Will just hope we get some overdue luck from last season and can push for the title this time 
To achieve that, we'll probably need some good depth scoring from our cobbles squad and for our sprinters to be consistent, because I don't think they'll be in contention to win much. Probably the only way we can overhaul Carlsberg and Carrefour's depth.
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| aidanvn13 |
Posted on 26-10-2020 06:37
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Interesting! Love the quantitative perspective, SN. Do you have a maths background?
Around 10th place was my thumbsuck estimate for us. I think the battle between Pinot and Ranaweera will have a big impact on our ranking (owing to our almost-all-or-nothing strategy). Neat that the last minute Minoungou and Lhotellerie boosted us in the cobble department. But with a shortage of cobble races on our calendar (besides for the compulsory ones), I'm not sure how big an impact they will have. Additionally hope that our TTT can bump up our ranking a bit. |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 26-10-2020 12:39
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Definitely an interesting preview, thank you for the work! I do fear my team won't be 7th (or even top-10) this season, having no back up stats and not the best domestiques being the main reasons. Nevertheless, if they decide to surprise me and get a top-10 I would be very thrilled
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| Guave |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:29
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Stagiare
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Very nicely done! Some top insights, but i do - nevertheless- hope to prove some of them wrong. Here's hoping on depth and back-up stats doing their job more than can be calculated here. On the other hand, ending 14th of 20 in the first season isn't that bad neither.
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 26-10-2020 14:58
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Domestique
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Nicely done SN  I hope at least that I will be able to get my goals special Slovenian race and the top 10 but because of my inexperienced and building on a long term I think it will be really hard to get it haha
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 26-10-2020 15:11
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Grand Tour Champion
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Lots of analysis and last year was somewhat successful with those who promoted.
Love the different use of micro maillots as well
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 26-10-2020 16:16
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For sure we won't, especially not in C1/HC races. And I guess the race selection argument holds for most other teams, too. As I said, 6th would be absolutely fine for us - any Top 10 result would be, actually
Of course, as a numbers freak I'd love to have some more insights into how you calculate all that stuff, but as you surely won't reveal your secrets, I'll just enjoy reading your previews Thanks a lot!
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 28-10-2020 00:38
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Considering no one in the top 3 of last year's predictions didn't promote, it makes me excited that your breakdown has us in the top 3 sn!
Hyped also to see us at the top of two categories, that said I'm worried that there's limited TT days in the CT and that Baugnies might just sweep the cobbles to a certain extent. Top 7 in every category is dope to see though |
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