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Milano - Torino Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 24-07-2020 11:28
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Team Manager
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 Milano - Torino
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Preview
The final C1 race of the season takes us to Italy for Milano - Torino. With the exception of one year, this autumn classic has been in the ManGame calender since 2008 and it has an illustrious pantheon of previous winners, including three that are competing again this year:  Aleksandar Flügel (2013),  Chris Froome (2014 and 2016, the only repeat winner in this race’s history) and the defending champion Tomohiro Kinoshita.
The race takes the riders 186 kilometers from, you guessed it, Vigevano to Mongreno (gotcha!). The two suburbs of the eponymous cities are connected by a route that is almost entirely flat for the first half, but gets harder and harder the closer we get to the finish. The final 20 kilometers have the two (likely) deciding obstacles, namely the two steep climbs prior to and then to the finish. Everything up to that point is likely just about getting there with as much energy as possible.
| HI | AC | RS | ST | MO | | Kinoshita | 82 | 77 | 77 | 80 | 72 |  Kelderman | 82 | 72 | 75 | 80 | 71 |  Beltran | 81 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 79 |  Izagirre | 81 | 64 | 72 | 73 | 74 |  Jensen | 80 | 76 | 73 | 77 | 70 |  Kwiatkowski | 79 | 75 | 76 | 74 | 78 |
Last year’s winner Kinoshita leads the list of top favorites, a group of riders with barely any notable weaknesses. He’s the man to beat once again as his combination of hill, acceleration and secondary stats is unmatched, he obviously has the experience here and he has good team support.
Kelderman is his main challenger on paper, only trailing the Rakuten leader in acceleration and ever so slightly in resistance and mountain skills. Beltran is also a very strong rider all around, packing a great punch and also being the strongest pure climber, which could come in handy on the penultimate ascent.
Rounding out the main favorites are Izagirre, whose complete lack of acceleration means he likely has to get rid of his competitors before the final few hundred meters if he wants to win, as well as Jensen and Kwiatkowski. The latter two are a bit below the previously named in terms of pure puncheur skills, but are so well-rounded and have some solid strengths that they could certainly be around to fight for the win.
| HI | AC | RS | ST | MO |  Di Maggio | 82 | 75 | 68 | 73 | 65 |  Vakoc | 80 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 71 |  Betancourt | 80 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 73 |  Prevar | 80 | 73 | 70 | 77 | 71 |  Waeytens | 80 | 73 | 70 | 72 | 71 |  Yates | 79 | 80 | 70 | 77 | 70 |  Edmondson | 79 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 69 |  Paulinho | 79 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 75 | | Bilbao | 79 | 75 | 71 | 77 | 67 | | Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 69 | 74 | 74 | 70 |
The field of contenders is deep in this race and the transitions between tiers are pretty fluent, so seeing any of these riders in podium contention would certainly be no surprise.
Among the top riders in this group are Vakoc and Betancourt, who are almost identical in their abilities. The latter’s main edge might come in the form of a very strong supporting cast, but both should be able to challenge for a top result here.
The same applies to Waeytens, who’s coming fresh off a strong third place at the Balkans International, and Prevar, who boasts one of the better stamina stats in the field. Like the previous two, they are solid allrounders.
In stark contrast, Di Maggio is a special case: On paper, he climbs hills with the absolute best of them, but his subpar resistance and mountain stats could be detrimental especially on the longest climb of the day. ENI-MOL does have a secondary option though in Gebrezgabihier, which could be an interesting dynamic.
That is also true for Paulinho and Berg Cycles, having a dual leadership with Vogt (see below), a stronger puncheur but with the same flaws as Di Maggio, only more pronounced.
Completing this tier are Simon Yates, the rider with the most powerful acceleration of any of the favorites, Edmondson and Bilbao - possibly the strongest domestique in the race, for Beltran -, who are also just very complete competitors.
| HI | AC | RS | ST | MO | | Flügel | 80 | 72 | 65 | 77 | 71 |  Dowsett | 80 | 71 | 69 | 74 | 65 | | Vogt | 80 | 63 | 71 | 78 | 62 | | Froome | 79 | 70 | 68 | 72 | 67 |  Reichenbach | 79 | 69 | 69 | 76 | 73 | | Barrio | 79 | 67 | 63 | 69 | 70 |  Juul-Jensen | 78 | 79 | 74 | 76 | 70 |  Siskevicius | 78 | 75 | 72 | 73 | 73 |  Pichon | 78 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 69 | | Boily | 78 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 76 | | Palini | 78 | 74 | 68 | 75 | 70 | | Serry | 78 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 75 |  Mehr-Wenige | 78 | 67 | 69 | 74 | 66 | | Zordan | 77 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 73 | | Sepulveda | 77 | 73 | 73 | 74 | 75 | | Zakarin | 77 | 73 | 73 | 74 | 73 | | Moscon | 77 | 71 | 76 | 74 | 72 |  Vichot | 76 | 80 | 68 | 77 | 65 |  Umerbekov | 76 | 73 | 67 | 74 | 70 |  Freuler | 75 | 75 | 75 | 73 | 72 |
Leading the very deep tier of outside contenders are the likes of Flügel, Dowsett, the aforementioned Vogt and double winner Froome. They all are great pure puncheurs, but a lack of resistance and/or mountain stat and previous performances in some races this year preclude them from being considered actual favorites. Plus, the latter is of course not even in a leading role, with Kinoshita filling that position at Rakuten.
Among the more well-rounded leaders in this tier are Reichenbach, Juul-Jensen, trying to salvage an underwhelming year, Siskevicius, who has provided a few more highlights for his team, showing decent form with a GC Top 10 at the Euskal Bizikleta recently, as well as Pichon.
Many other riders in this tier belong to the category of top domestique, looking to fill in for leaders with a bad day or to continue riding well after their helping work is done. These include Barrio and Zordan for an on paper really solid Andorra trio, Boily, Sepulveda and Zakarin for an even deeper ISA - Hexacta squad, Palini and Moscon.
Finally, we have some of the weaker team captains in Mehr-Wenige, Umerbekov, Vichot and Freuler, although Delveaux (with Stuyven and Gallopin) and Centovalli (with Masnada) have multiple options for that role. These riders (with the exception of Mehr-Wenige) might not have appeared on this list on pures strength alone, but not having domestique duties (in contrast: a team dedicated to support them) could give them an advantage over some of the better riders mentioned.
A lot can happen here and with a field this close, anything from a Top 5 to falling outside the Top 15 seems possible for many riders. With the end of the season coming closer and closer, every single point is valuable, so the pressure is certainly on. To conclude, here’s an overview of all the riders that will be trying to contribute:
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:23
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 24-07-2020 12:54
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How selective this course will be with this version of PCM, who knows! Think positioning in last 20km might be quite significant, and can be very random at times it seems. ISA - Hexacta send good depth, but miss an A-list top gun. Who knows which Betancourt will turn up (almost amusing that both MG and IRL Carlos is such a streaky rider, interested one day, couldn't care less the next).
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 24-07-2020 13:02
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Very hard startlist, will be hard to get points in this one.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 24-07-2020 13:05
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We need points everywhere we go and we expect with Kelderman every time. Need a good race please!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 24-07-2020 14:02
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Tour de France Champion
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Breakaway glitch? Unless Scorchio's random finish prediction comes true, I doubt JJ can do much of anything.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 24-07-2020 14:22
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Breakaway glitch? Unless Scorchio's random finish prediction comes true, I doubt JJ can do much of anything.
Not expecting complete random, just strong potential for a number of guys who should be top 10 to end up in 3rd or 4th big group on the road enabling a couple of B/C tier favourites to infiltrate the top 5/10. The road will of course decide!
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-07-2020 14:23
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Beltrans race to loose if all turns out as expected...
Dark horse Gianni Moscon though, watch out for him 
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| quadsas |
Posted on 24-07-2020 18:14
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All I can hope for is a point or two. But Ill settle for a breakaway win
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 24-07-2020 19:11
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Hoping to win here obviously, but Beltran is probably the favourite, and Kelderman can end the season on a high after a bit of a disappointing year for him too, so you never know.
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 25-07-2020 03:40
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Will be interesting to see how the Continental teams go here. Hopefully Edmondson can continue his good form and grab a nice result, this is more of a test for the guys though. Should be interesting!
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 25-07-2020 12:28
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Classics Specialist
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No point on expecting anything from Dowsett here, maybe Zordan brought some good form from America and can capitalize on his MO skill, but mostly here just looking for some secondary places if possible
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 25-07-2020 15:06
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Tour de France Champion
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First of all, absolutely amazing report cunego! Thank you especially for taking the time to keep up with the minor placings behind. in our relegation battle every point counts, and it was great to be able to see JJ throughout the race even though he was behind.
Congrats to Swisslion on a deserved win as well. They'll certainly gain in that relegation fight today.
Can't help but being a bit disappointed if only because JJ actually looked pretty strong today. It's always his positioning making him miss splits and stuff, and he JUST couldn't get back. It was especially frustrating seeing him attack and feeling like he was just about to bridge, to then fall a minute behind again.
So, we lost ground on those we are competing against with a 15th place. However, at the very least, we scored a handful of points here with the 15th, which is better than JJ's done plenty of other times this year. So it's not that terrible.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-07-2020 15:45
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Awesome report! YES BELTRAN!  Come on Kelderman 
Which drugs did Waeytens take?
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 25-07-2020 16:44
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World Champion
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Cant be upset with 3rd. Kinoshita looked good to win, and the effort at the end was a good try. Usually those moves work, so most other days I feel it would have been a win. Atleast we still got a good result out of it.
Thanks for the report Cunego.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 25-07-2020 18:25
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What's the point in having a pure puncher anymore? Not a single one-day race where Kelderman could even break into the Top 5, with just two more to go. And also just one Top 5 in Stage Races. Only riders worth anything on any climbing profile are really high MO riders or MO/HIL hybrids. I hope this is taken into account when renewals and everything related to stats come around.
Congrats to redordead, who've probably moved themselves much closer to safety with this result. Thanks for the great report cunego. As with many great reports from reporters this season, I wish my riders gave me some reason to enjoy them more.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 26-07-2020 03:41
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As expected, my punchers cant do anything even in the hill classics. Great. The game is broken and needs to be fixed/taken into account when renewals comes around like Abhi said.
Congratz on the win redordead.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 26-07-2020 12:31
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Solid racing, decent result. Can't ask for much more in races like this.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 26-07-2020 20:27
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Wait what? 16th is now where close to be acceptable.... |
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| jaxika |
Posted on 27-07-2020 06:35
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Classics Specialist
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Not much to say, we are mostly crap on the hills this year ... I fear the next rankings, we will be close to to bottom i afraid |
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| beagle |
Posted on 27-07-2020 09:08
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Great report of great race with very solid 4th place for Izagirre.
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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