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Tour of Northern Europe Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-07-2020 11:16
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Grand Tour Champion
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 Tour of Northern Europe
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2018 | Sam Bewley | Moser - Sygic | | 2017 | Lars Boom | Aegon - Lavazza | | 2016 | Roger Kluge | Pokerstars.com | | 2015 | Fabian Cancellara | Red Bull - Huawei | | 2014 | Fabian Cancellara | Simply Red Bull | | 2013 | Jerome Coppel | Milka - AVG | | 2012 | Filippo Pozzato | Festina - Conec | | 2011 | Fabian Cancellara | Carmeuse Cyclisme | | 2010 | Vladimir Gusev | Philips - Hummel |
The tenth anniversary edition of the ProTour's prime trans-national event: Tour of Northern Europe. The race is registered in Norway but mainly takes place in Belgium and France, with a stage in Sweden as well. Fabian Cancellara is the record holder with his three victories which cannot be emulated in this edition. Bewley and Boom are the only former winners lining up this year, both one-time winners of the two most recent editions respectively. The race is known for its many different components, only climbing skill is not required. We have a mix of flat and hilly stages, laid with cobblestones, and both individual and team time trials, all in a span of eight days. If this race doesn't excite you, then frankly nothing will.
Profiles
The race opens with a team time trial but not a regular one, as it takes place on the Haaghoek cobblestone section. The race then moves to France for a flat and a hilly stage, where the puncheurs will want to gain as much time as possible before stage four. That fourth stage is a cobblestone stage, including many legendary sections from Paris - Roubaix. The time trialists come back in action for stage five, this time individually. The sixth stage is another flat stage before the race flies to Sweden for the final hilly stage, before heading back to Belgium for a final flat stage
Startlist
| Team time trial | AVG | TT | COB | Team time trial | AVG | TT | COB |  Generali | 76 | 77 | 75 |  Isostar | 71 | 69 | 73 |  Grieg | 75 | 72 | 77 |  Fablok | 71 | 72 | 69 |  Tinkoff | 74 | 72 | 77 |  SPAR | 71 | 67 | 74 |  T-Mobile | 74 | 73 | 75 |  Aker | 70 | 70 | 71 |  Andorra | 73 | 67 | 79 |  eBuddy | 70 | 67 | 73 |  ISA | 73 | 71 | 74 |  Farfetch | 70 | 66 | 74 |  Ambition | 72 | 68 | 77 |  Repsol | 70 | 67 | 72 |  Aegon | 72 | 73 | 72 |  Air France | 69 | 68 | 70 |  Gazelle | 72 | 72 | 72 |  Festina | 69 | 65 | 73 |  Moser | 72 | 70 | 75 |  Indosat | 69 | 67 | 71 |  Puma | 72 | 73 | 71 |  Vesuvio | 67 | 69 | 65 |  Evonik | 72 | 68 | 76 |  Bennelong | 66 | 71 | 62 |
A lot of different contenders for the stages. Let's start with the team time trial, where a mix of cobblestone quality and pure time trial experience is needed. This statistical analysis takes 50% of the best five riders in TT and COB respectively. Generali brings the best team time trial squad by far had the route been asphalted, but also has a very decent cobblestone squad to go with it, including riders capable of handling both. If I had to pick a favorite for the opening stage, watch the Italians.
In terms of cobblestone quality, Andorra Cycling Project has the best squad followed by Grieg - Maersk, Team Tinkoff and Podium Ambition. Of these teams, Tinkoff and Grieg have a decent time trial outlet while Andorra and Podium Ambition are amongst the worst. The former two should finish higher than the latter two under normal circumstances, but it probably won't be a normal team time trial.
Other teams with a decent combination of skills are T-Mobile, ISA - Hexacta, Aegon - Lavazza, Gazelle and Team Puma - SAP.
| Time trial | TT | HL | COB | Time trial | TT | HL | COB | | Fiedler | 83 | 68 | 60 | Kung | 77 | 73 | 72 | | Yatsevich | 80 | 68 | 64 | Ghyselinck | 77 | 68 | 61 | | Cataford | 79 | 70 | 67 | Turek | 77 | 68 | 58 | | Malori | 79 | 68 | 58 | Hansen | 77 | 65 | 56 | | Viviani | 79 | 66 | 60 | O'Shea | 77 | 64 | 51 | | Oliveira | 78 | 73 | 72 | Predatsch | 77 | 55 | 62 |
The time trialists only have one attempt on stage five. Fiedler is the main favorite for the stage, but a high GC position is very unlikely with his skills in the other fields being underwhelming.
His closest competitor for the stage will be the Yatsevich. Other contenders for the podium are Malori, Cataford and Viviani.
If anyone wants to use the TT to get in a decent position, Generali has the duo of Oliveira and Kung which are decent enough on the hills and cobbles to target the general classfication. They need to use the time trial to get in that good position while limiting their loss on the other terrains.
| Cobbles | COB | HL | TT | Cobbles | COB | HL | TT | | Summerhill | 83 | 73 | 59 | Vanmarcke | 80 | 66 | 62 | | Bewley | 83 | 71 | 71 | Sulimov | 79 | 70 | 65 | | Senechal | 82 | 67 | 65 | Zubov | 79 | 63 | 66 | | Blythe | 82 | 66 | 68 | Machado | 79 | 63 | 58 | | Kamyshev | 82 | 65 | 65 | Gerts | 78 | 78 | 67 | | Bakari | 82 | 55 | 54 | David | 78 | 75 | 65 | | Trentin | 81 | 74 | 61 | Polanc | 78 | 73 | 70 | | Wisniowski | 81 | 71 | 74 | Kristoff | 78 | 68 | 68 | | Altur | 81 | 70 | 63 | Ringheim | 78 | 67 | 66 | | Teunissen | 81 | 66 | 64 | Puccio | 78 | 66 | 61 | | Theuns | 80 | 74 | 65 | Lampaert | 78 | 66 | 56 | | Van Avermaet | 80 | 74 | 59 | Bush | 78 | 63 | 62 | | Daniel | 80 | 69 | 56 | Thomas | 78 | 59 | 62 |
The cobblestone specialists only have one stage to battle for the stage victory, but it is perhaps the one where most time can be gained. All these riders could go on for a decent general classification provided they can handle a bit of hills and riding against the clock. Bewley is the best cobblestone rider of recent years. He laid the groundwork for his overall victory on the cobblestone stage last year.
His closest competitor for the stage win will be Summerhill, riding for wildcard Andorra. His time trial skill might make a GC charge more difficult, but he can match Bewley on the cobbles. If there is a rider excelling on the cobbles with the stats on the other terrains to challenge for the GC, it is Wisniowski. He is not much below Summerhill in the hills, and tied with Bewley, but it is his time trial quality which sets him apart from the rest of this section. He has podium experience from the previous edition.
The list of stage favorites goes on beyond the aforementioned riders. Senechal, Blythe and Kamyshev could be a threat if they play their cards right. Trentin, Altur and Teunissen should not be underestimated. Theuns and Kristoff are the best sprinters if a larger group reaches the finish line, though they have to pass Bewley then as well.
| Puncheurs | HL | COB | TT | Puncheurs | HL | COB | TT | | De Bie | 83 | 68 | 72 | Furdi | 77 | 65 | 65 | | Gastauer | 82 | 59 | 66 | Lietaer | 76 | 67 | 59 | | McCarthy | 81 | 69 | 58 | Vanendert | 76 | 62 | 69 | | Chernetskiy | 79 | 52 | 66 | Hofland | 76 | 62 | 66 | | Gerts | 78 | 78 | 67 | Fritsch | 76 | 61 | 65 | | Benoot | 77 | 75 | 62 | Lane | 76 | 56 | 63 | | Zardini | 77 | 68 | 67 | Rabottini | 76 | 54 | 65 |
The puncheurs have two chances for stage wins: the third and seventh stage. De Bie is the best puncheur on the startlist, and is not too bad on the time trial, but the cobblestones are where he will get in trouble.
His two closest competitors are Gastauer and McCarthy. The trio is a clear step above anyone else on the startlist, so they should use this to their advantage and gain as much time as possible on these two stages.
A special mention for Gerts and Benoot, who are known to handle cobblestones well. Especially Gerts might become a dark horse for the GC, he finished fourth in the last two years. Can he finally set foot on the podium?
| Sprinters | SP | ACC | COB | Sprinters | SP | ACC | COB | | Bewley | 83 | 83 | 83 | Van der Sanden | 78 | 79 | 67 | | Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 78 | Krasnov | 78 | 77 | 52 | | Van Heerden | 81 | 72 | 70 | Clarke | 78 | 76 | 56 | | Keukeleire | 80 | 79 | 71 | Hsu | 77 | 77 | 72 | | Petit | 80 | 78 | 72 | Reimer | 77 | 80 | 53 | | Lander | 79 | 77 | 73 | Dakteris | 77 | 77 | 72 | | Soupe | 79 | 77 | 64 | Theuns | 77 | 76 | 80 | | Harrison | 78 | 81 | 73 | Edmondson | 77 | 75 | 74 |
The sprinters have the most chances out of any specialty, three to be precise. However, it of course depends on the breakaway being caught in order for the sprinters to duke it out in the final kilometer. Once again, Bewley is the man to beat, though he might save his resources in the flat stages for his GC ambition.
Kristoff might be just as fast at top speed, but needs longer to get there. Van Heerden might be the third-best sprinter but he needs even longer than Kristoff.
The other contenders are Keukeleire, Petit, Lander, Harrison and Van der Sanden. They also have decent helpers for a leadout.
| Favorites | HL | COB | TT | Outsiders | HL | COB | TT | | Wisniowski | 71 | 81 | 74 | Kaczmarek | 74 | 69 | 73 | | Bewley | 71 | 83 | 71 | Potts | 74 | 76 | 66 | | De Bie | 83 | 68 | 72 | Bibby | 75 | 65 | 76 | | Gerts | 78 | 78 | 67 | Cataford | 70 | 67 | 79 | | Oliveira | 73 | 72 | 78 | Trentin | 74 | 81 | 61 | | Kung | 73 | 72 | 77 | Summerhill | 73 | 83 | 59 | | Boom | 73 | 72 | 76 | Gaday | 74 | 76 | 65 | | Polanc | 73 | 78 | 70 | Arissol | 71 | 72 | 72 | | Cavagna | 74 | 71 | 75 | Dahl-Olsen | 68 | 74 | 72 | | Kruijswijk | 72 | 74 | 73 | Benoot | 77 | 75 | 62 | | Theuns | 74 | 80 | 65 | Pedersen | 68 | 77 | 69 | | Per | 70 | 77 | 72 | Kristoff | 68 | 78 | 68 | | David | 75 | 78 | 65 | Vermote | 70 | 74 | 70 | | Declerq | 73 | 77 | 68 | Altur | 70 | 81 | 63 | | Russo | 74 | 71 | 72 | Basso | 72 | 71 | 71 | | Walsleben | 66 | 75 | 75 | Senechal | 67 | 82 | 65 | | Blythe | 66 | 82 | 68 | Sulimov | 70 | 79 | 65 |
A contender for the overall victory should be good on the hills, the cobbles and in time trials, with the latter one slightly less important. Based on the stats, Wisniowski is the biggest favorite taking the average of the three aforementioned stats.
Stats don't always mean everything. He was in the race last year which was won by Bewley. The other former winner, Boom, does not particularly excel in any department but is one of the better all-rounders.
The list of contenders is endless. Riders who have been named in any of the previous subsections can be considered contenders provided they gain enough time in their respective discipline. Some riders are not superstars in any discipline but are well-rounded riders are Polanc and Kruijswijk. Kruijswijk even finished runner-up last year. Cavagna and Per should be favorites for the youth classification.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-07-2020 11:32
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
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You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-07-2020 11:40
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
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Yeah Great idea to sacrifice this race in favour of the Balcans for Kump right. National Focus paying off once more. Polanc should be a good Podium contender with his pretty unique skillset alongside Wisniowski and Bewley. Per I expect in the run for the Top10. Can't wait to be disappointed. Great preview!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 23:28
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-07-2020 11:57
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World Champion
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It will be interesting to see how the new AI handles this race. It could go in many different directions.
Anyway, we don't have a favorite at all here. Maybe Petit can snatch a couple of stage podiums on stage 2, 6 and 8, other than that I guess we'll just have to hope for a lucky attack.
Maxime Daniel shows absolutely nothing on the cobbles usually...
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-07-2020 12:09
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7773
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 20845.00
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alexkr00 wrote:
You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview
Fixed. With all the tables with different orders of attributes I was bound to mix one up
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| Bikex |
Posted on 10-07-2020 12:16
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Team Leader
Posts: 7385
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If all goes well (which it won't) David could fight for a good GC here. However I feel like he will loose too much in the ITT and the TTT for which I couldn't bring good support as this race unfortunately clashes with the Deutschland Rundfahrt. |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 10-07-2020 12:45
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
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Here mostly to hunt stages. Marcos "He really needs to do something to get a nickname" Altur should factor on the cobbles. As always i shout out to Darren Matthews as a potential option. Kek + Edmo as a sprint duo could work. But probably nothing more than one or two Top10's and a Top25 GC finish.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-07-2020 13:37
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
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Marcovdw wrote:
alexkr00 wrote:
You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview
Fixed. With all the tables with different orders of attributes I was bound to mix one up
Of course. Great job with the preview
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| roturn |
Posted on 10-07-2020 14:15
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Team Manager
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On paper the mix of De Bie and Boom should be strong with Zardini, Van der Poel, Van Hooydonck all adding something as well.
Dekker getting a surprising race here late in his career alongside pure support Koep and Van der Hoorn.
Far from the individual strenght I had back in 2017 but Boom still could have it here with De Bie maybe even having better chances. Problem is that the ITT is not on his side really but neither is most of the rivals.
So a good race to maybe make Balkan forgotten. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-07-2020 15:06
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Grand Tour Champion
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I decided to stick to our previous strategy and go all out on cobbles support here: 82-76-76-73-73-73-71-68. Its a gamble but it could help us a lot if the TTT is dominated by the COB stat.
This race could go in any direction and i have no idea who is favored anymore
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| ember |
Posted on 11-07-2020 07:42
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Team Leader
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Cool race, great preview!
Really looking forward to see how it plays out, especially the hilly stages and the TTT. We’ve come here previously with far greater ambitions (looking at you, Trentin) and even won the TTT. We won’t do that this year, but I still expect is to do better than 16th-19th place, which is the place the table puts is in.
Also, this is the first edition for Hampus. Let’s just say it won’t be the final one 
Considering how the season has played out, Wisniowski is the big, big favourite for the overall. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 11-07-2020 10:34
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Classics Specialist
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Exciting race, hard to predict what will happen here. We have some riders who are able to do well, but nothing is guaranteed.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 11-07-2020 10:50
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World Champion
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Well, that's not... good
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 11-07-2020 10:51
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Very happy with that TTT result! We put some valuable time into many strong riders.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-07-2020 13:58
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Directeur Sportif
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Not a Great Start for us. Definitely should have gone for a higher pace but drop some riders like Roman.
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| ember |
Posted on 11-07-2020 18:15
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Team Leader
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Well done, team! Happy with that performance, and good to see Hampus and Walsleben up there. Our possible GC result here will be very dependant on how the hilly stages are raced, I think. If they go easy there, we could have a shot at a top 15 overall with one of them.
And a very convincing win by Puma, congratulations! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 11-07-2020 19:44
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World Champion
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Oh dear...
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-07-2020 22:52
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
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Called it! Although relied entirely on the AI to sh*t itself to get him and AC contesting a "sprint".
But seriously, what was that stage? I think that's the worst AI i've seen all season, and i cannot figure out why...
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 11-07-2020 23:13
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Wowowowow Summerhill with another massive win! I just hate there's no reward for these like at the TDF, but I sure am pleased to see such a big win, and he has good chances of taking another if he keeps riding like this.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 12-07-2020 01:26
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Obviously a very important race for Wisniowski. Probably hurt us that we couldn't bring Würtz here. Not the perfect start, but decent enough.
Not a super fan of letting Sumerhill take the stage win here, but he did a great stage, so congrats to Andorra. He's a decent climber as well, so he could be a tricky one to beat.
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