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Tour of the Middle East Discussion
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 27-11-2019 01:33
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The second season now for the shortened 4 stage HC version of the Tour of the Middle east. Last year saw no shortage of fireworks with  Merhawi Kudus taking the GC after a 2nd place finish on both stages 3 and 4 stealing enough time from favorite  Aleksandr Plushkin on the hills to win the GC.
The route is similar in style with two flat stages for the sprinters, a very hilly circuit followed by a queen mountain stage. The question will be which stage is the most important after it was the hills last season that decided the race.
Stage one is flat, though an uphill drag in the last 30km might take some of the sting out of the pure sprinters. Stage two will offer no such difficulty with it's finish. Stage three becomes a puncheurs dream with a short circuit featuring one short, but brutally steep climb the riders will have to challenge 14 times, finishing at the top. Lastly the queen stage, a large and long climb. Unlike stage three the grade won't be a factor as this climb maintains a gentle slope, but most of the 114 kilometers will be spent climbing.
This year Kudus is gone, but will someone take his place to take victory over what should again be a heavily favored Aleksandr Plushkin? Let's get to the GC contenders.
| | | | | | | | | Rider | MO | RS | HL | Rider | MO | RS | HL | | Pluchkin | 85 | 78 | 75 |  Machado | 81 | 69 | 74 |  Uran | 82 | 81 | 74 |  Abal | 80 | 76 | 69 |  Martin | 81 | 77 | 76 |  Beltran | 79 | 72 | 81 |  Berhane | 81 | 74 | 75 | Penasa | 80 | 72 | 74 |  Schelling | 80 | 76 | 75 |  Nerz | 80 | 72 | 72 |  Marquez | 80 | 78 | 71 | Ji | 80 | 69 | 75 |  Choi | 80 | 76 | 74 | Krasnoperov | 80 | 69 | 68 |  Bennett | 80 | 74 | 76 | Seboka | 80 | 70 | 62 |
It comes as no surprise that returning runner up, Pluchkin should be the favorite this season. His top competitors should be Rigoberto Uran and Daniel Martin, both of which come off very good rides in Pico Basile finishing 3rd and 2nd respectively behind  Tenorio. The remaining list of primary challengers also all come from having raced Pico Basile as well filling up much of the top 10 list there. The riders ability to maintain their effort up the long but gradual climb will be vital and will likely take the burst of acceleration out of the equation favoring a high resistance to maintaining a tempo.
My odds-makers have come up with an incredibly convoluted calculation favoring the riders in this order, and while the expectation is the mountain will decide the GC, the warning of last season still holds true and Beltran will be eager to exploit the hilltop finish in stage 3.
While not competing for the GC, there are two sprint stages up for grabs as well as some early points for leading the GC before it gets going uphill. These sprinters are likely to feature in the opening stages.
| | | | | | | | | FL | SP | AC | | FL | SP | AC |  Ahlstrand | 74 | 83 | 82 | Kip | 69 | 80 | 82 |  Avelino | 71 | 83 | 78 | Vantomme | 72 | 81 | 76 | | Maksimov | 72 | 81 | 84 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | | Boeckmans | 73 | 81 | 83 | Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | | Ciolek | 74 | 82 | 78 | Gaviria | 74 | 79 | 82 |  Silvestre | 78 | 80 | 81 | Haller | 72 | 80 | 79 | | Zabel | 74 | 81 | 79 | Lavoine | 73 | 80 | 78 |  Appollonio | 74 | 81 | 78 | Ulanowski | 73 | 80 | 77 |
Ahlstrand is a clear favorite on the flats, though not quite as favored as Plushkin is on the mountain. Much the same there will be no shortage of riders to compete with him for those opening two stages. Volvo will also have an excellent lead-out man in Jurgen Roelandts to work in their train for Ahlstrand. Similarly Berg will have Lionel Coutinho in front of Silvestre and Swisslion has Luka Mezgec. Duolingo and Lierse have several options to lead out their men in Avelino and Van Asbroek if the sprint trains work out well enough for that much organization.
Lastly we look at the stage three contenders, one of which we covered also as a GC contender. Plenty of others will be looking forward only to stage three and victory on the hilltop.
| | | | | | | | | HL | ACC | | | HL | ACC | | | Borges | 80 | 81 | |  Quevedo | 78 | 75 | | | Beltran | 81 | 76 | | Reichenbach | 79 | 69 | | | Paulinho | 79 | 75 | | Vogt | 80 | 63 | | | Juul-Jensen | 78 | 79 | | Klemme | 79 | 65 | | | Dyrnes | 78 | 77 | | Landa | 78 | 69 | | | Barbin | 78 | 76 | | Grippo | 77 | 69 | |
We primarily look at the ability to tackle the shorter climbs, and the burst needed to beat the others on this sharp uphill finish. It could be a good race between the better overall climber in Beltran, and the punchiness of Bruno Borges. The questions will still surround this stage though as the time gaps were critical last year, and could do the same again this season especially if Beltran can gain significant ground. While the list of high end puncheurs isn't as deep here as the climbers or sprinters, they may play the most pivotal role. I add Chiaffredo Grippo to this list from a group of otherwise similar riders due to his fighting spirit (85).
It is a deep field, with 22 teams competing and 163 riders. Some eager to continue their season, others just starting their season in this HC race.
Edited by Kentaurus on 27-11-2019 01:37
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 01:36
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Come on Bennett! Deep field but hoping he can start to show that new 80MO off and compete for the good top 10 places and an outside shot for the top 5, which is quite ambitious I know  If he could kick ass on Stage 3 and repeat his win there last year it'd be a great start 
Meanwhile a first look at Areruya as a domestique with 74/74, and maybe a chance for Dyrnes to go stage hunting. Thanks for the preview Kent!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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Posted on 25-11-2024 11:12
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 27-11-2019 01:40
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I do apologize for not including Bennett's stage three win last year, needs to avoid the big loss in the mountains this season after dropping several minutes last year, in a finish right behind my own Robbie Squire.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 27-11-2019 03:46
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Not a lot of expectations again from this race. Let's see how well Marquez holds up on Stage 3. Didn't expect such a deep sprinter field tbh but let's see if Te Brake can repeat last season's good form. Maybe Bardet can surprise a bit.
Thanks for the preview 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 04:13
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Kentaurus wrote:
I do apologize for not including Bennett's stage three win last year, needs to avoid the big loss in the mountains this season after dropping several minutes last year, in a finish right behind my own Robbie Squire.
I thought this was going to be a real nice message but it was just an excuse for you to brag!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 05:36
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The competition continues to be stiff. I'm starting to realize that's just cause my team is bad in comparison to the competition.
Both Warbasse and Garby are here, but I have no real GC ambitions. Simply a numbers game hoping one of them is aggressive on stage 4. I suppose Warbasse could use his hill to get a minor GC result, but not counting on it.
Appo needs to step up here and get his season off to a good start. Again, there's a lot of good sprinters, but he's got a lot of weight on his shoulders. I'm not even going to set a goal - I'll know success when I see it.
A bit of a tune up race for JJ. Hopefully he's aggressive on stage 3 and makes it count. Otherwise it's just a waste.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 27-11-2019 06:02
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Important race for us, with both leaders in play. Fingers crossed.
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| redordead |
Posted on 27-11-2019 06:44
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We will see if sending Beltran here was a good decision regarding GC, but between the 2 flat stages and the hill stage we will try to pull of a stage win
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 27-11-2019 08:05
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Happy to see Tenorio dodged Pluchkin by not being here. Our best hope for points is a couple strong sprints from Zabel, or maybe veteran Nazaret uses his experience to sneak a result on Stage 4, or Newton shocks the MG world with his first-ever breakaway win... hey, a man can dream. 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 27-11-2019 08:35
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Gaviria and Van Asbroeck? That doesn't sound right, let me check my planner.. Ah, yes! I had foreseen our poor season start and decided to go full sprinter here!
At least one decent stage result from my sprinters and a White Jersey for Oomen would be nice.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 27-11-2019 08:53
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Win goal, which translates to "Beat Pluchkin' goal. Uran survived the hills pretty well last year but new game new racing.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 27-11-2019 09:15
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We've got some options for the first 3 stages. A stage win would be nice and maybe a stint in yellow.
Pluchkin should be favourite no. 1, but with Beltran's recent exploits in East Java he could well take the cherry on the cake.
Thanks for the preview Kentaurus 
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| beagle |
Posted on 27-11-2019 09:43
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Clear 0 pointer for me here, as I couldn't send enough riders to race due to multiple race clash. At least I like the presence of Beltran and Borges especially, because they won't ride in Slovenia!
Great preview, I'm curious of race outcome.
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 27-11-2019 11:46
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We have Selig for the sprints and the duo Stuyven/Vichot for the hills, but the sprint and puncheur field is better than I hoped for. Breakaways seems likely to be our best chance of scoring points.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 11:46
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If the hilly stage is ridden sufficiently slowly, I hope Nerz can survive it well by virtue of the changed mo-hi-mechanics that would allow him to stay within the mo-only effort range long enough.
Fingers crossed this goes better than last race...
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 12:15
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Go Beltran and Bennett!
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 27-11-2019 13:41
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Hoping for a solid Top10 by Machado, the climbing depth here is pretty big but he should be able to ride the hills strong enough to be in contention for the top places.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 27-11-2019 13:47
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The sprinterfield looks feasible for Ahlstrand here but I dont know why I only send Roelandts to help in in the end....Would have been smarter to send one more leadout here, still hoping for a stage win.
Maybe Faglum Karlsson can score some pts in the white jersey? |
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| Booker |
Posted on 27-11-2019 14:04
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Kulczyk has brought a strong team here, hoping for some GC and stage points. This race was a big focus for us, but it's looking similar to last year's excellent startlist in having competition on all fronts.
This is the first race of a big month for the squad, thanks for the preview Kentaurus!
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 27-11-2019 17:06
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ToME always an interesting outing, and with the current parcours, continues to throw up intriguing questions around the balance of importance of the hi vs. mo stage (and stat given PCM18) on GC aspirations. Berhane and Ji have got off to a good solid start to the season in their two January 1-day race outings, and more of the same here would be great. Berhane has the potential to challenge for top 5 if he races clever, and has good support for the key GC stages assuming the 1st two stages have limited GC impact. Only 7 riders starting for us here, as a complicated three-race clash (I think the only occassion this season for us) is kicked off by this event. Hard to see past Plu-bear as overwhelming favourite for GC, even if last season did throw up a surprise.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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