We are proud to present our PCT preview 2019. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal and knockout.
This preview consists of four parts:
1. Review of 2018: Last season we posted a similar preview and we want to review some of our statements from last season for a fact check, as well as seeing how our final predictions stacked up against the real rankings.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a Roundtable format where four of us gave our own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division.
3. The squads in detail: This part consists of two parts:
3a: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
3b: Team-specific question: Similar to the second part of the preview we once again answered questions about the teams in a roundtable format. This time though there is one question specifically asked for each team.
4. The “expert” predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective. Also we tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part three.
We start of by recalling some of our predictions for the 2018 season (including some quotes), mostly to let you know how seriously you should take us. FYI, we take this very seriously! What did we predict for the PCT in 2018?
Prediction 1: We believed Pluchkin would easily win the Individual Rider Standings?
jandal: Pluchkin is the only option for me, no matter if you think his planning is slightly wrong. I can’t see anybody being dominant enough in hills or sprints to pass what he can squeeze out of his RDs.
Fact: Pluchkin comfortably won the division by nearly 250 points!
Prediction 2: We believed that Laurent Pichon was a leading contender for Surprise Rider of the Season. Villella, Lander, the Kuroedas, Kuboki, Maillet, Luke Rowe and Novardianto were the others mentioned.
jandal: I am a huge Pichon fan for a few years, and I would love you to be right and for him to disregard Dowsett and lead Nordstrom. Ditto for Villela to get aggressive/overperform at Nordstrom. But if they can’t I have my eyes on two cobblists and two lovely prologue riders who people underestimate in road races: the cobblers are the Kuroeda brothers, the prologue specialists are punchy sprinter-prologueist Kazushige Kuboki, and super rouleur with a kick, Lasse Norman Hansen, two of the loveliest riders around.
trekbmc: It’s always hard to work out who quite counts as a surprise, like I think Monsalve could be one of the best riders of the season, Similarly I reckon Lander and Villela would score well. Otherwise Maillet will be amazing in the mountain breakaways and if we’re talking breaks, Novardianto will also be a threat in them who scores more than his stats suggest. Dall’Oste too as always and basically any Generalli guy. Finally, can I steal your Kuroedas pick, jandal?
AbhishekLFC: Luke Rowe could be a overperformer if planned well. That’s a cool rider to have and have the opportunity to possibly train for 2 more years.
Fact: Pichon managed a decent but unspectacular 57th place in the standings. Villella was poor and finished in 120th place. Lander was 86th, Kuboki was just behind Villella while the Kuroedas didn't have a season to remember. Luke Rowe proved to be the best of the bunch with 500+ points.
Prediction 3: We believed that Zepuntke and De La Cruz were the leading contenders to underperform. We also believed that Lutsenko would be considered to have under-performed if he failed to keep his team in the division.
knockout: Ruben Zepuntke will continue to perform below expectations and if that pushes Minions deep into relegation trouble then he will likely go down as one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Another disappointment candidate is Fabio Duarte who had a pretty solid 2017 campaign scoring 520 points but i think he will severely regress this season with the influx of stage racers with good TT skills like Pluchkin, Keizer, Eastman and Velits joining the PCT. Third and final name on my list is Marlon Zmorka.
jandal: I agree with two names here for top dog: Zepuntke and Lutsenko, who could certainly send down their teams with their perhaps overreliance on those two names. Another name in a similar boat is David de La Cruz, who has some justifying to do of that €388,000 wage. I also think Waeytens’ training won’t improve him as much as manager Oldfart wants, but is it really a surprise if he’s crap? Like Abhi, I doubt some of my own, specifically Velits.
Fact: Zepuntke finished with just under 400 points, and while it wasn't the best performance, it certainly wasn't the biggest disappointment. De La Cruz failed to justify his wage while Lutsenko managed to contribute to his team getting a Top 10 finish.
Prediction 4: We believed Generali's trainings of Roglic and Theuns would prove to be the most fruitful. Eastman's improvements had mixed reviews while the likes of Prevar, Barbin, Waeytens and Navardauskas were also mentioned.
Fact: Generali's trainings were by far the best of the bunch. The rest bunched up together in the final standings near the 200th position, barring Eastman, with Waeytens particularly disappointing once again. Eastman's points could not save his team from relegation though.
Prediction 5: We had high hopes for Cyprus as a new addition to the MG.
Fact: One of us has personal grievances and is looking for redemption next season! The rest of us just hope the new game brings a better AI to the race, which it actually deserves.
Prediction 6: We believed that Euskaltel was the non-promoted team most likely to relegate. Minions and Netia were also mentioned, depending on how their leaders performed.
jandal: Instantly Euskaltel comes to mind, and they are the only established/relegating PT team I’d bet on going down. As knockout mentioned in the weaker/stronger debate you could say the bottom of the table has improved, and they haven’t rose to the occasion enough to steer clear of the dogfight. Meanwhile Minions are the next team to mention in my eyes - Zepuntke can’t repeat his failure of 2016 and Uran needs to be winning those behind-Pluchkin battles consistently to get the job done.
knockout: Euskaltel is quite obviously a big candidate to relegate and it actually looked at times like they didn't even try to avoid relegation. I also see the Minions as a team that will battle against relegation for quite similar reasons although Quevedo not trying to make a crash compilation for youtube would surely help. Last but not least: It kinda turned into a prediction tradition for many to predict the Netia relegation but this doesn't mean that they won’t be in trouble this season.
Fact: Euskaltel did relegate. Minions survived comfortably, much improved from last season. Netia also relegated, in the end by a mere 10 points!
Prediction 7: We believed Lutsenko and Kinoshita would be the top PCT punchers in 2018.
knockout: This year’s puncheur division is one of the most even ones in recent years and I struggle to see a clear favourite. Flügel, Schreurs and McCarthy are all good riders that can win on any given day but I see three names at the top very close to each other: Lutsenko, Kinoshita and I expect Ulissi to celebrate a couple of times too.
Fact: 2nd in the standings, Lutsenko was comfortably the best puncher of the season. Ulissi was 5th with Kinoshita 6th.
Prediction 8: We believed Degenkolb and Ewan would come out on top in the PCT sprinters' battle (Degenkolb vs Cavendish vs Mohs vs Ewan vs Lo Cicero).
AbhishekLFC: I would have to go with Degenkolb, followed by Ewan. I don’t think Lo Cicero’s 2017 season was a one-off, Mohs and Cavendish will be better than him again this season.
Fact: Degenkolb was by far the best sprinter in the PCT. Mohs pipped Ewan to 2nd place.
Prediction 9: As is customary, we believed Matt Rowe would be the worst of the 80+ sprinters. Petit, Drapac, Castaneda and Ulanowski were the other names mentioned.
knockout: I’m hating on Matt Rowe every time i’m doing a season preview for his team’s division since i joined the MG in 2014 and he is my pick for this, too.
AbhishekLFC: Rowe does look like the obvious candidate doesn’t he, with 70 ACC.
trekbmc: Well the obvious answer is Drapac with no hill, but he inexplicably won a race last season, Ulanowski, Rowe and Castañeda are other obvious picks as well (and I really want to pick Guillen still) I think Meyer will be the worst sprinter, but his prologue points will bring him up above some others, guess I’ll take Ulanowski as the worst - bet he wins a HC classic.
Fact: Ulanowski took the wooden spoon, scoring just 44 points all season.
Prediction 10: We believed it would be difficult for any promoted team to make it back-to-back promotions to the PT, but that Philips had the best chance to do so.
knockout: I don't see any promoted team in a position where they are favourites to promote. However, the whole division is so close this season that it is likely that one of them overperforms enough to be in the fight for 5th-7th.
AbhishekLFC: I have to agree with knockout. No promoted team have had a good enough transfer window to challenge for promotion, at least directly.
jandal: I like Philips the best, a gap to Kulczyk who are also very nice and Repsol should be solid. But none in the top 5 I think, maybe if we get a freaky amount of disbands I could see 1-2, especially given the closeness of a lot of the mid-table spots. I’d bet on no, like the other two.
trekbmc: I really really like Phillip’s chances to do this, just having 3 nice leaders and a good team behind them, it’s the right combination for it, maybe not automatic, but I think they will, I’ve told jandal a number of times that Xero is Isostar, but everybody will hate me for saying that, so I won’t. Repsol maybe is the other main contender but would have to have great planning with some luck mixed in there.
Fact: Repsol blew all predictions out of the water, finishing 3rd after a stunning season. Philips were dismal in 18th. Kulczyk and unfancied Reddit finished in 9th and 10th positions.
Prediction 11: We unanimously believed that Generali would make the biggest rankings improvement in PCT from the 2017 season.
Fact: They jumped 13 spots, won the division and will ride in the PT next season for the first time. Podium Ambition came close, rising 12 positions.
Here we could write a long post explaining what we predicted, but a table says more than a thousand words. Let’s see how we stacked up against the final rankings:
ab
ja
ko
so
1
Generali - EDF
1
1
1
2
2
SPAR - Shimano - SCG
6
7
4
6
3
Repsol - Netflix
14
10
10
13
4
Fablok - Bank BGZ
4
6
7
1
5
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
3
5
5
9
6
Podium Ambition
8
11
12
8
7
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
5
3
2
3
8
Ayubowan!
2
2
3
4
9
Kulczyk - DMTEX
19
19
18
22
10
Team Reddit
23
18
22
19
11
Kraftwerk Man Machine
11
13
15
12
12
Meiji - JR East
7
4
6
11
13
Minions
21
22
21
21
14
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
13
21
17
16
15
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
10
15
8
20
16
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
9
16
19
14
17
World Cycling Centre
22
23
20
23
18
Philips - Continental
12
8
14
5
19
cycleYorkshire
15
12
16
10
20
Carrefour - ESPN
18
14
11
17
21
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
20
9
9
7
22
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
16
17
13
18
23
Netia - Vonin
17
20
23
15
24
Nordstrom - BioWare
26
24
24
25
25
Euskaltel - Eilor
25
25
25
26
26
Azteca - NBCSN
24
26
26
24
ab = AbhishekLFC
ja = jandal
ko = knockout
so = statistical outcome
Is the PCT division stronger or weaker than last season?
AbhishekLFC: I feel like we say this every year, but it seems like the top of the division has got more open, while the bottom of the division has got stronger. It looks to be a very closely run division, probably the closest in quite a few years, with teams specifically looking to strengthen particular areas a lot more than before.
jandal: Can’t help but agree with that. I only have vague ideas on what the hell will happen in the end this season as everything seems to have been put in a blender, flattened with a rolling pin to make it more open and then marinated in mystery sauce, and the change of game only makes it more open. But the bottom does look stronger I think - certainly it looks to me 2 or 3 teams will relegate that wouldn’t have or would have run it close in the Carlsberg/Lierse/Netia bracket last year.
Croatia14: I disagree with you two. I think that teams this year overall surprisingly look slightly weaker on the downer side. And that’s the first time in a year or so. I neither can’t find a well-rounded Generali-esque team nor do I see the bottom side stronger. I think Netia f.e. would’ve easily stayed up this year (with somewhat sane planning). I expect teams jumping up significantly from last year that don’t really look a lot better this season.
knockout: This is a question that looks very difficult to answer for me. I agree that the trend continues that the PCT grows closer together and it’s quite difficult to place lots of teams that could end up in either promotion or relegation battles. I would point to the strengths of relegating PT teams that are no longer capable of fielding super strong clear cut title favourites like it often was the case 3-4 years ago. On the other side, even the bad teams have something nice going on that (combined with the uncertainty of the pcm change) nobody looks absolutely doomed from the beginning. I would tend to say that the general level stayed about the same and depending on which you focus you can find strong arguments for a stronger or weaker division.
Which rider will overperform the most this season?
Croatia14: This is the time for bold predictions, so I’ll go in straight away: Tony Gallopin will have an enormous season and score at least 300, in my eyes even 400 points, which will be a major difference between relegation fears and promotion aspirations. Aside from him, people are still undervaluing Primoz Roglic, who will definitely be a Top 5 scoring climber. Finally I go with a rather uncommon trio of South Americans, being Jorge Abreu, Josue Gonzales Cortes and tuned machine Eduardo Sepulveda. Also watch out for the slim hilly sprint class, where Hugo Houle and Sacha Modolo seem like a guaranteed load of points.
jandal: I tried to make a list of these to decide from and there were just so many, I tried to cut this answer down but it’s still very long! I’ll begin with a rider I spent almost the entirety of transfers chasing and am so gutted I missed out on: Lilian Calmejane! A very very cool rider for attacking, I’m not sure how he’ll behave with so many puncheurs and sprinters at Europcar though. I like my Meiji trio from last year of Kuboki and the Kuroedas to actually be a good call this time in PCM18, whilst I look forward to Laporte and van der Haar taking advantage of the new cobbles AI with mid stage attacks (look out for Rowe, Havik, Thwaites and Saber in this category as well, but they aren’t as surprising). Finally watch out for a pair of exciting versatile puncher-stage racer extraordinaries: Tony Gallopin (of whom Croatia stole my thunder), and newly-trained Eduardo Sepulveda (the same but to a lesser degree), who looks like a duo to watch in all types of races but especially the hillier stage races. The latter especially a huge huge threat in those.
knockout: I like a lot of the names you’ve thrown in the ring and expect a lot from riders like Gallopin, Sepulveda or Houle too. I want to highlight Mikhail Ignatiev as another rider to watch. Certainly not an unknown name but being 34 already, he has one more big season in him as the most interesting late attacker and he is also still good for short stage races with hills and TTs. And I expect this to be the year that Mekseb Debesay will improve massively and will be a big surprise factor on the cobbles.
Which training (PCT riders only) will result in the best return?
jandal: Well unlike old seasons there’s been a lot of big training in PCT that could have some very solid effect, particularly the puncheurs. Jensen and Borges look like much better contenders with their double hit to 80. I’d also love to give a shoutout to Berg’s HI/MO training on Chiarello and Paulinho, more on them later! Yates has also made his presence felt harder by taking his first steps to being a total monster. In stage racing the Penasa training could be big for Kulczyk whilst in my humble opinion Bennett’s 80MO boost was an important if not groundbreaking move for Xero. I’ve already talked about Sepulveda and will do so again, his little boost to 77 shouldn’t be ignored.
However the biggest training is also the best for me. Although Kinoshita would have still been in the top two in my view of the puncheurs he has reclaimed his 2016 frontrunner position this year with a very nice training to step up to the arrival of Kelderman. The potentially extra hundreds of points that come with turning 2nd and 3rd into 1st more consistently can’t be ignored.
Croatia14: I agree totally with Jandals analysis of Tomohiro Kinoshita. He is, and that is not even close, the #1 pure puncheur in the division. The only rider who I can see beating him is Edu Beltran, depending on how a race unfolds. But with Kinoshita's 82 Hills dominant results are possible.
Contrarily I’m not a fan of the trainings of Jensen and also not sure about Borges, as they don’t seem to be the groundbreaking riders in PCM18 for me. More interesting is Yates, who shouldn’t be underestimated even in some bunch sprints. I have him in my Top 5 puncheurs without a doubt.
My silver medal goes to Sepulveda however, who now becomes an absolute versatility monster that can compete with the best. I’m not sure whether I wouldn’t have invested the money into mountain training, as I feel that fits the stage racing theme a little better (looking also at hills in stage races), but if he’s more used in ITT/hill combinations he can be outstanding.
knockout: Kinoshita looks like the best training but with both previous guys to answer this question the same way I’m gonna bring up the question how many extra points that training will add to the team and is that worth the cash they spend on it? Even without the training he was the 2nd best puncheur and with the way the division looks now it could still be 50/50 with Kelderman in actual racing (even though Kinoshita looks better on paper). But especially considering the future following a possible promotion to PT this has to be the most valuable training this year.
I’ll repeat it for the x-th time this year that I'm not a fan of PCT training because i think the cash can be used better to add value through transfers unless the cap situation is really difficult for the particular team. However, the training of Borges seems to guarantee promotion which surely should make an argument for this question.
jandal: As seen in my quick prediction my bottom 5 and two of the three above are all promoted, and as some have discussed there are reasons for this, it was a tough market for the promoters. So although I think (and hope) that was probably a wrong call, I don’t think there’s as many returning PCT teams in trouble this year as previous seasons. For me it’s Kraftwerk, who maybe got worse not compensating for their declines and being overtaken by other teams. However I think they’ll pull through. The only other name I could think of is Carlsberg, who only secured survival in Japan last year, and have only traded Nolf for Warbasse, but should pull through and be safer than last time as well.
Croatia14: For me there is less pressure from the lower teams than it has been before. Carlsberg at least removed some useless wood and worked on their biggest weakness, so they should be better this year. Lierse also got a year older, which for those means better, while for Kraftwerk this means worse. But, for me, Kraftwerk did an incredible job in filling those positions down the ladder in the team, so I can’t see them falling either. I’m more worried about Carrefour, if their transition didn’t work properly, and even ISA-Hexacta, if their leaders in mountains and hills block their far cooler looking support riders from scoring.
knockout: The transfer market has certainly been tough resulting in less trouble for returning PCT teams. A team that hasn't been mentioned is Iberia. Their youth investments could put them into troubles as they did not replace Blythes points so if Degenkolb cant repeat his dominance of the sprints, they could surprisingly slide too close to the bottom ranks. Kraftwerk and especially Carlsberg are two teams mentioned already that could be good calls.
AbhishekLFC:Unless Carlsberg can turn their fortunes around significantly, they'll remain in trouble this time as well. Kraftwerk too, seem to slide down and they'd be keen to avoid to avoid the highway to the danger zone. Iberia's talent focus, if it goes awry, can put them in relegation trouble for sure. Carrefour's transition from a sprinter team to a hills focus will be interesting to follow but Coppel himself should pull them to safety.
Which rider wins the Hill/Mountain combo crown?
jandal: Wow, a bit of a tough one to call due to a very deep field! All depends on how they are planned: for example I would send Dan Martin to a fair few of these races but who knows if Tamijo feels the same? I’d be inclined to say Schelling may also be in attendance due to avoiding Amador clashes. Obviously there’s big names: Roglic and Meintjes are back again if they want to (a big if for the former, whilst Meintjes at cycleYorkshire is a known quantity), as are Talansky and a new and improved George Bennett. Of course the big new additions are Beltran, who has to be #1 for HI-MO races, and Tom Jelte Slagter, both with the weight of a relegation-threatened team on their shoulders. I am also looking forward to seeing how Berg’s duo of Chiarello and Paulinho go, who look very dangerous, but as teammates of Roglic it raises interesting questions of who goes where, and their training makes me believe Roglic may focus on the purer stage races. And of course, a final shout-out to Kwiatkowski who surely comes back to haunt the PCT in the C1 races. In the end, I go for Beltran for HI-MO and Martin for MO-HI, with Beltran, Meintjes and potentially Roglic right behind if he doesn’t come to the party. Obviously hoping my horse in the race can keep up too!
Croatia14: This is not even close. Edu Beltran is the best mo/hi rider, and has to be considered for Top5s on any mountain race due to his finishing ability already. The later the action starts, the more effective he will be. That’s why he is worth the huge price tag that was invested in him, he can basically win any uphill race that’s not too easy. 2nd for me is Slagter, also no matter the combination, but it will be close with the pure climbers, like even Pluchkin and Tenorio, ahead of the likes of Meintjes, Talansky or Roglic.
knockout: Beltran. On more mountainous profile Roglic and Meintjes can compete with him while Slagter will often be 2nd best behind Beltran.
AbhishekLFC: I'd have to agree and mention Beltran here too. He was a very good signing by Swisslion and perhaps their stature as a PCT team depends on Beltran living up to his wage.
Which team has the brightest future?
Croatia14: Relegating Berg Cycles and Desigual still nail it in my opinion. They both have a big chunk of great scorers all under 30 that can be smartly added to season by season. I don’t think many teams have that quantity in quality at the top without a guy decreasing soon. ISA has to be mentioned because only their worst rider in Ji will decline and they have such great depth, that by scraping the bottom 5-7 riders and adding 1-2 good leaders they’ll promote with ease and have a very solid PT base. Lierse is basically on the same status as last year, but with Gaviria developed they have a monster with a young core as well, so basically auto-promotion. Then there is the superstar + supertalent combinations in Degenkolb + Bernal + Philipsen and Beltran + Pogacar, where I especially fancy the first one but the time frames don’t match properly. Xero has great riders in the late 20s with upcoming stars like Areruya, which also can’t be counted out. But the brightest future has to go to viking’s Volvo. I know, a lame option in terms of development, but with 2 PT-ready stars far away from decline, a big one like Sosa coming up and plenty of young scorers this is the team to put the money on in the closer future.
jandal: I think Croatia has given a pretty good summary. Desigual and Berg have great youngish cores of leaders, Berg also with a great talent squad too making them a frontrunner. Lierse is obvious as their talents start to come to the fore. Iberia with a huge duo, Xero with a pretty young squad, similarly are Sauber and Swisslion especially if they avoid relegation (not the last time the latter two will be similarly compared), all three with a lot of unmaxed guys and late 20s maxed core already in place and all having future climbing stars in Pogacar, Areruya, and Hirschi who are all scary. I think Volvo is a great pick with super Sosa and other good talents plus three leaders in the 20s, especially PT-worthy big names Stallaert and Ahlstrand. Philips also quite young with a star to build around in Kelderman and one for the future in Inkelaar, with a young domestique core developing and also Saber around for a few more years. So many options here!
Which promoted team is expected to perform the best and can any of them push for back-to-back promotions?
Croatia14: Despite the complete reshuffle, Delvaux still looks like the most complete of the new teams. Some of them are totally unpredictable, but they seem to have the best depth alongside a strong-enough core. I’d take them. If you count Lierse as newly promoted team though then watch out for them being outsiders of turning relegation into promotion aspirations.
knockout: Delvaux absolutely has this in its bag. They added so many incredible cool riders and have good leaders to back it up. I cannot see another promoted team close to their strength and see them as promotion contenders if they are lucky on occasions.
jandal: As seen in my first look preview I had only Delvaux in the top half of the division from the promoting class and though this field is so open, I’m inclined to stick with my guns there, and can’t help but agree with my esteemed German colleagues. I really like how they are looking. Back-to-back? Never say never in general with this division and especially not for such a nicely-built team, but I have a fair few teams ahead of them at the moment.
Which repeating PCT team made the biggest improvement in the transfer window?
jandal: Positions 17-19 in 2018 should be looking to improve by 10 spots or more in my view: ISA - Hexacta (formerly WCC), Philips, and cycleYorkshire. Philips with a big rebuild and hopefully some more luck to fight for top 10 or more, and ISA/cycleYorkshire looking like outside (or inside) promotion bets by some solid additions but also benefiting by standing still to a degree! Some of the CT 2017 class looking to go to the PT in three years potentially? Another solid possibility is Rakuten who will also hope for a jump of around 10 from 12th to the promotion spots. If I have to pick one to move the most, it’s cycleYorkshire.
AbhishekLFC:ISA-Hexacta and cycleYorkshire for sure for me. Now before you accuse me of being modest, I don’t think my team’s strong enough to keep up with these two this season. It was a weird transfer season for ISA actually, with a lot of failed moves. However, they seem to have strung together a team which looks better than the sum of its individual parts. It was something similar, and maybe a bit better for cycle Yorkshire and they genuinely look an impressive unit to me.
Croatia14: I very much disagree with you guys. ISA did well at keeping their stuff together. But they still didn’t tackle the problem of having 0,5 good PCT leaders (Berhane). I think Boily and Sepulveda are the best riders on the team, and they once again improved their depth, but I don’t see a huge push to be honest. Also, while I like the addition of a couple of riders at cycleYorkshire, they also lost Tvetcov who could be very good in PCM18 and failed to train Meintjes into a rider that would justify his wage. I see other winners: Philips took their hands on both improving strength of leaders and talents. For me it’s between them and Xero, who with Houle got yet another perfect wage/reward scorer alongside another crazy talent addition in Higuita seem like their only way is up over the next years, and that is due to their mostly fantastic moves.
knockout: It probably won’t show as much in the final rankings but I really like what Carrefour has done this transfers. The roster looks much more complete and less relying on Coppel and has added several riders that will be valuable going forward after the season. Lierse hasn't improved in the transfer window but they could be amongst those with the biggest year-to-year ranking improvement due to developing talents and less underperformances. But I can't really disagree with any of the other takes either because all of those look slightly improved and might benefit from the division crawling closer together and also from promoted teams not having made huge jumps (with the exception of Delvaux).
Who can challenge Summerhill on the cobbles this season? Is Baugnies still the best of the rest or can we expect someone else to step up and make a challenge?
knockout: I don’t think Baugnies is the strongest challenger this year. While Summerhill is obviously the strongest cobbler in PCT this year, the other contenders are very close together. Vanspeybrouck, Vanbilsen and Spengler should be on a similar level as Baugnies but it’s Joeri Stallaert who I see as the most dangerous rival to Summerhill as he needs to be distanced before the final sprint.
jandal: Although the depth isn’t great to see for me who is hoping for more Debesay points than I might ultimately get, I am really looking forward to watching the cobbles this year! It’s an excitingly poised field that reminds me a good bit of the 2016 season I loved reporting so much, with Vanbilsen and Baugnies against Summerhill with Sibilla, Zepuntke, Debesay, Bush all lined up in opposition, except this time there’s even more challengers for Summerhill at the 80+ level. What all those riders knockout mentioned are missing though from that season is the Strava magic and depth (let’s never ever let Ollfardh forget Langeveld outscored Vanbilsen that year) I think to make them nearly on par as Baugnies was then. However with so many challengers, it will still be tough for the American. Vanspeybrouck on paper should be his closest challenger and maybe PCM18 can finally make him ride like he’s better than all of the others, whilst Baugnies will also hope he maintains whatever remnant Strava magic makes him better than any 80COB rider has the right to be! Spengler and Vanbilsen will consistently be good but not great you’d think. However in the majority of races I can’t help but agree with knockout that Stallaert is the biggest dangerman purely as on most finishes he has to be dropped before the final kilometre, especially with the improved group sprint AI in PCM18.
Croatia14: Summerhill is without doubt the man to beat. I don’t really see Baugnies up to the challenge, and neither should be Vanspeybrouck, Vanbilsen or Spengler. If Stallaert can hold his wheel then Summerhill has a problem. Lucky for him there also isn’t a dominant hill/cobble rider so that these races shouldn’t harm Summerhill too much. It won’t be an easy challenge for Danny to be the best in every race, but he’ll certainly score the best if the races pan out as expected from the AI.
Which team is the most prone to completely wrong preview predictions?
Croatia14: I like the idea that this is really Lierse this year. It’s basically those teams that gamble either on one-trick wonders with certain weaknesses or on riders that need several stats to play into their hands. If races go like last year then they’ll be in trouble, but at the same time I can see Gaviria and van Asbroeck both scoring 700-800 and suddenly they’re in the promotion fight. The same goes to Xero with Rowe and Houle, they have the potential to each score 750+ if the AI treats them as I expect it to do, but if races become less action-like and more boring - which sadly the calendar seems to stream towards this year (where are windy races!?, why are there less and less hybrid classics? ,...) - and teams can’t animate them then those teams could bust into big trouble. Berg Cycles, with their loads of similar riders, could also really go either way from winning the division to sinking into the lower mid-field.
jandal: I think there’s a few teams in the mid-table who could go quite high or quite low and we’ve seen that in previews so far. It seems Xero, being predicted 25th and 8th in different lists, are a strong candidate for this one with no rider guaranteed lots of points, but lots of riders with some interesting statlines and high potential - as Croatia said they’ll want action-packed races but in their own ways for riders like Rowe and Houle to benefit. Lierse with a similar pair of sprinters are also good candidates and also have been predicted inside the top 10 and outside the top 20. They could also go a long way up via Cerny utilising his statline and Oomen establishing himself as top dog for the white jerseys (and Moscon too). cycleYorkshire are another one, they have been tipped for promotion in some quarters but also for the lower table.
AbhishekLFC:I would add Philips into this as well with basically just Kelderman assured of good points scoring!
knockout: It’s Lierse to me. I look at the squad and see a team that could easily finish top 10 with good planning and if the new PCM suits them. However, it’s very similar to the team that relegated last season and was only saved because the MGUCI did not deem the CT teams next in line for disband promotions worthy of a promotion. They have several riders like Gaviria or Waeytens that look like they should have massively improve their scoring compared to last season but that could also score just a tiny bit more than that. And they have Van Asbroeck who is one of the most unpredictable leaders around. Minions are another interesting team to watch with three quite one-dimensional leaders (Claeys, Zepuntke and Vantomme) that could flop hard so they have a lot of potential to underperform some of the predictions too.
If you could remove one rider from any team without replacing him to make the team stronger, who would it be?
jandal: I might have said Sibilla but cobbles is one terrain I think a leader like that can still be ignored by those below him, especially in PCM18 but even in 15 as seen by Cancellara beating him consistently at Novatek 2016. Anacona is an option, as he could have let Faglum lead and secure white jersey (since Oomen leads Lierse and Ranaweera Sauber), but although not a winner Anacona should be alright. Normally I say Dowsett, but he’s backed up by an even dodgier puncheur in Barrio! So I’ll give it to someone who looks like Dowsett at Nordstrom last year: Tommy Zaini at Europcar, blocking interesting guys in Caruso and Calmejane potentially.
AbhishekLFC: Artemio Moschella might be an interesting candidate for this conversation. If you put the likes Bonnin and De Marchi in a race where Moschella also starts, will the former duo be at all be given the freedom to go on stage and KOM raids, which they otherwise might do, if they lead on their own. While the latter duo aren’t the strongest leaders, Moschella’s record speaks poorly of itself, and Delvaux are quite understaffed in that department to begin with. Might have made more sense for them to get in a more versatile climber instead.
Croatia14: I mentioned him before: If Jianhua Ji wouldn’t be at ISA-Hexaca, I think the team would be better off with more freedom for Boily and Sepulveda. Apart from that this is always the perfect time to look at sprint trains: Philips really has to use Wippert complementary from Saber, otherwise his sprint train can’t work at all. Same goes for the trains of Lo Cicero and the awkward dark cloud that is Ranneries. Iberia hopefully split Merino and King so that Jans is the penultimate man for Degenkolb. But my main answer is almost a classic meme: Mario Vogt. There is a big risk that the AI takes him as the hill captain over Pedro Paulinho, and that is something that we all wouldn’t want to wish Berg Cycles. Give this man a domestique role somewhere finally, please!!
knockout: Christian Ranneries looks like the weakest of the four Carlsberg sprinters and it’s difficult to plan him without accompanying the other three. If he slides in as a leadout then i reckon it might hurt the team a lot because with his high acceleration and low FL, Hi & RES he looks like a terrible leadout. Removing him would be far better even if someone like Sinkeldam, Ostergaard or Steensen would have to take over a much more prominent role in the sprint preparation. This also feels like a good place for my annual “Fuck Matt Rowe” rant. He is a terrible sprinter who blocks more interesting riders and won’t do shit. This year for real.
And finally, the question everyone eagerly wants answered, just what impact will the new game have on the PCT division?
Croatia14: Let’s go for the bad ones first: Stage design can be flawed if there are turns in the final kilometers, especially on sprint stages. Then positioning has more of an effect than before, otherwise there will be a positive effect as those are much more open. The really good effect is the breakaway AI, teams that don’t have favourites will often send multiple riders in a break which is awesome, breaks are bigger and create more realistic results. Energy stats will count for more than ACC the harder the race is. You have to watch profiles a lot more carefully in planning, as a hill stage is not always a hill stage. In a totally flat one with a final hill then sprinters could be involved, even on mountain stages in that direction if the finishing climb is more short and steep than long and steady. Thus planning will account for a lot more than before. Not in the manner of figuring out which races will be least attended, but more like figuring out which stage may provoke which type of racing action and which rider really fits which race.
Also riders crack more easily, and that has a heavier impact. That means depth becomes more important, cause if you have one rider that is on a good day, conserved loads of energy and then drops back early he may be able to take a very good result due to overtaking everybody at the end of a day. Cobbles become more selective, meaning that races are animated from longer out. However, it still takes a combination of timing and strength to have the perfect moment and the right luck to find a group that works together. Hence we’ll see a lot of attacking and playing around there. Riders also will consume more energy in lots of races on the approach of the final already, so good domestiques and protection are more important
What does that mean for the game? My guess is that deep teams have more of an advantage over leader-prone teams. That’s on the one hand due to the increased importance of good support, but also as it seems much more likely that a weaker rider can power his way to a good result while not coming from a race. In sprint situation it seems like having a great flat powerhouse as third to last man and then have a good sprinter with less acc than the main sprinters could be the perfect mixture. More different teams will create trains, so a good protection makes also sense here.
Finally, the AI for smaller races has improved significantly, and in my opinion may be even better than in big bunch races. That doesn’t change anything for management perspectives, but may open the doors for more freedom of choice and variety of races in the future.
knockout: Not having played any PCM since 2013 i am unable to give a technical / AI answer on this even close to the information quality of Croatia. But what seems sure is that the new game will create large overreactions in both directions. One race “this AI is so much better, such great racing” and the next race we’ll hear how shit the new game is and that we better change back to PCM 2011 or whatever.
Also the change of game will give managers even more excuse to blame PCM for bad performances of their riders instead of taking the blame for having signed bad riders.
Last but not least, we will have one super surprising team in both the promotion and relegation fight because some leader will not work at all while another team (like Delvaux?) will have lots of surprise results due to some previously unpraised riders turning into Batman and crushing everything.
jandal: Croatia gave a really comprehensive and great answer and I agree totally with knockout as well, so I’ll just try to find a few new things neither said. Unfortunately, although I love the changes PCM18 made, I will start with a negative: some types of mountain finishes have a tendency to finish in bunch sprints and I believe that some stages on the MG calendar will sadly see that happen. Hopefully this provides more testing for what causes this and will lead to some calendar shift next year!
Classics riders, as in real life, are more useful in flat to fl-hi classics I believe with a lot of attacks in races like Lisbon with some hills involving more types of riders from puncheurs to classics to roleurs to sprinters. The real life context I’d give is a result like Sep Vanmarcke in Bretagne could happen in this edition. Now I’ll rattle off cool new AI stuff not mentioned like I’m advertising the game: Bonus seconds at sprints are contested and treated as GC opportunities both for GC contenders and those fighting for it in the early weeks of GT racing. In general I like how classifications work better. Riders are more proactive but also more reactive - for example I’ve seen sprinters follow late attacks because they believe they have a shot rather than waiting behind their train. Reduced group sprints are so much better, not just the rider in first or second wins but more tactical and, y’know, actually uses the sprint stat! Cyanide defined what FTR does a bit more (skill at riding alone and in getting into successful breaks as well as likelihood) but as always who knows with that stat?
For the division I’m not sure what this will all mean. I guess when you look at a squad it could be judged slightly closer on how it would work as an actual cycling squad rather than how it would work in PCM15? It just seems a bit more cohesive and makes more sense - I think there will be less “oh he’s a nice rider but he won’t actually do anything”. This isn’t really a profound statement or interesting at all, I agree with what Croatia said about depth-focused teams being treated well overall and his reasons why.
Can Danny Summerhill do better in saving his team this season than last time around in PCT with Azteca?
jandal: Yes. I believe he can but he can’t save them alone. In 2016 he was fighting to save a doomed ship, his best backup was a still-developing Beltran and Chaves who didn’t always focus on the right races, attending cobbles and flat races for XP reasons (and also not great planning either as far as I can tell)! He also had the Strava machine opposite him (even though I already drew comparisons between the two years of cobbles!). His support in Bakari (who is a wildcard to actually support and not win instead), M. Machado, Eekhout and Dahl-Ohlsen won’t score buckets of points behind him but should be better in keeping him safe than that Azteca crew as well. This year, his team has a still not amazing squad outside of him and the manager will be hoping (Thiago) Machado and all of the many one-trick ponies can come together to help Summerhill keep their heads above the water, but I’m not sure they quite can.
knockout: I actually like the cobbles support a lot. Summerhill is clearly the strongest cobbler so that should help the AI not screwing up and Machado might be someone that benefits a lot from the PCM change while Bakari and Eeckhout are both low risk, high reward. All three of them on or close to min wage as well. I’d love to see someone stronger on the hills in his cobbles support because there is not a single rider with 75+ CB and 65+ HI which could hurt Summerhill but that is not the big issue i have with the team. My big issue is that I don't see a second rider capable of scoring: The mountain squad is full of one trick ponies who don't look good enough to score in the mountains and not versatile to get lots of points through attacks. Kip might have been the highlight of the 2018 amateur division but there is a reason why he was still available for an amateur team to pick up. Which leaves Dowsett as the guy who has to deliver the missing points and I don’t think he is up to the challenge. I’d definitely expect them to be deep in the relegation fight and Summerhill better win a lot or he might go down as the best rider to relegate multiple teams to the CT division.
Croatia14: I also think that the general support on the cobbles is quite decent. The cobbled stat itself will matter a lot in the selective parts, and even in races where Bakari is dropped earlyon Machado and the others should be strong enough to hold Summerhill at the very front. The question is: Will he be able to ride everybody out of their socks by attacking on the cobbles? All eyes will be on him, but I think he is that bit stronger than everybody else that he can win a lot. And if he has to go bunch sprint, then only Stallaert should be the one he really has to fear.
Besides that, Andorra is lacking in other disciplines. I can see them scoring here and there, but Machado? Dowsett? I think it will be difficult to stay up if it’s not for Kireva, the rider I look forward the most to on this team, or maybe even Zordan to score the unexpected points.
Andorra
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
5
9
3
1
Croatia14
3
3
2
10
3
1
jandal7
6
5
3
9
5
2
knockout
4
4
2
10
4
2
Berg Cycles
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Primoz Roglic
71
80
76
72
75
76
75
66
69
74
72
71
70
4.100
30
Fabio Silvestre
78
61
67
73
70
71
74
56
80
81
70
63
77
4.100
29
William Chiarello
71
79
75
73
73
74
77
53
63
72
73
69
71
4.100
28
Pedro Miguel Paulinho
67
75
79
64
70
72
74
56
68
75
70
62
64
4.100
29
Danilo Kupfernagel
74
53
64
59
73
66
78
63
80
80
71
63
74
4.100
31
Lionel Coutinho
72
63
65
52
75
74
77
55
79
80
55
64
52
4.100
27
Alex Ariya Destribois
69
76
75
68
68
69
74
52
61
75
77
78
67
4.100
28
Mario Vogt
73
62
80
66
78
71
65
58
62
63
63
62
66
4.100
27
David Bartl
69
77
72
71
73
74
75
52
60
70
71
66
75
4.100
28
Marcio Portela
66
73
75
58
68
68
72
51
63
74
85
80
58
4.100
32
Luis Afonso
68
66
77
58
75
73
70
52
57
70
70
71
58
4.100
29
Youcef Reguigui
72
76
71
73
72
69
71
50
63
69
68
62
75
4.100
29
Vitor Rodrigues
69
77
72
66
70
73
69
55
62
71
73
67
66
4.100
33
Joni Brandao
68
73
76
59
69
71
71
53
53
69
78
74
59
4.100
30
Joao Rodrigues
64
74
70
70
70
72
73
55
61
71
69
68
70
3.0
25
Amaro Antunes
67
76
72
63
71
69
70
55
60
67
74
72
63
4.100
29
Ricardo Vilela
67
73
72
71
70
71
72
51
62
64
83
85
70
4.100
32
Jose Fernandes
70
71
67
73
75
74
72
53
62
66
59
68
73
3.59
24
Joao Almeida
68
72
67
67
72
73
71
53
63
69
65
70
67
1.0
21
Orluis Aular
67
73
68
64
72
70
70
52
63
67
65
70
64
1.0
23
Siim Kiskonen
69
59
68
68
74
74
67
68
70
72
68
72
67
1.0
22
Steff Cras
65
69
67
66
71
72
70
58
60
66
60
66
63
1.0
23
Talents and secondary rider training instead of going for big PCT leaders. A costly decision by Berg Cycles?
jandal: In one sense it definitely was as they are not clear favourites for direct promotion now as perhaps they would have been if they took a different route. However they are still a solid option. Add onto this though is the fact that they have made some very nice moves to secure their future and I think fintas will have seen this is a worthy trade-off for not being one of the division frontrunners. Although Kupfernagel is 31 and Roglic 30, they have a very very solid core of guys with 4-6 seasons left at their peak, including the training two long-time riders in Chiarello and Paulinho, looking like a very nice climbing duo and secured a fearsome climbing squad for years to come with Almeida, Aular, Rodrigues and others! So costly yes, but I actually love what they did.
AbhishekLFC: I have to start by saying that the talents Berg picked are incredible, and for (mostly) the low wage they got them for, even more impressive! Like jandal mentioned, in the end, they did blow the chance of basically cementing a straight return to the PT by concentrating on getting those said talents. It’s a super-cool team though with the likes of Roglic leading the line and 4-5 consistent scorers to back him up. Their future is secured too.
Croatia14: I will take an unpopular turn here but I think that the training was not the best possible. I would’ve liked the team to bring Roglic up to 82 instead and make him a clear-cut Top 3 climber in the division, or finally training Silvestre who could’ve been a monster with dedicated training in the past. Berg would’ve been a safe lock for promotion for me. By not doing so, it may become slightly more difficult. I indeed like the regional talent class a lot while not being a fan of Aular really. Some good pick-ups mainly for the wage though. Investing Aular-money into another scorer would’ve been a better choice I’d stay, still I like the looks of the team a lot.
knockout: I don’t think the “secondary rider training” is really worth the money spent but I think the transfer moves clearly indicate a decision that one wants to build for the long-term instead of the short-term promotion and with the ages of all their leaders being 28-30 a promotion in the 2020 season would fit the team quite well as then everyone would still be in their prime for their first PT season so it totally makes sense this way. So while the training may not be ideal the moves are still very good.
Berg Cycles
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
8
7
0
2
6
Croatia14
8
5
7
0
2
4
jandal7
7
6
7
0
2
7
knockout
9
5
7
0
1
5
Campari/Asahi development
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Kris Boeckmans
73
61
68
60
74
71
81
74
81
83
65
58
60
4.100
32
Daniel Martin
69
81
76
72
76
77
76
54
64
75
71
62
70
4.100
33
Ricardo Ferreira
73
57
68
63
74
70
69
79
71
69
71
71
63
4.100
27
Laurent Pichon
70
69
78
63
72
74
69
59
62
74
82
70
63
4.100
33
Aleksej Kunshin
70
77
73
71
75
75
76
56
68
71
64
62
71
4.100
32
Blel Kadri
72
69
75
60
75
67
66
57
73
76
81
73
60
4.100
33
Estifanos Kebede
70
76
76
66
73
70
71
61
60
72
68
63
66
4.100
31
Filippo Fiorelli
69
70
75
64
74
73
71
50
64
69
73
71
64
4.0
25
Mark Christian
73
63
69
77
72
71
70
59
68
72
76
71
75
4.100
29
Patrick Naud
76
62
73
64
72
73
71
74
64
67
78
75
64
4.100
28
Clement Lhotellerie
72
60
63
68
74
69
67
76
58
68
69
74
68
4.100
33
Francisco Lasca
72
58
68
65
70
69
75
66
76
74
65
68
65
4.100
31
Sota Ikibe
63
74
73
70
70
70
72
60
62
65
73
68
70
4.100
27
Ha Jeon Jung
66
65
75
60
71
71
67
64
63
69
67
64
61
4.47
24
Yuma Koishi
72
62
68
74
73
70
63
59
64
70
61
64
73
4.0
26
Simone Petilli
61
73
71
58
73
73
71
50
54
68
67
70
64
3.56
26
Yosukue Matsumoto
73
69
68
64
69
72
67
65
65
73
77
69
67
3.61
23
Masaki Yamamoto
69
68
70
72
64
65
66
57
67
70
68
67
70
2.85
23
Federico Rocchetti
67
62
74
63
68
63
66
53
64
62
78
56
63
4.100
33
Matteo Moschetti
66
58
65
65
68
67
67
64
72
73
66
65
65
1.0
23
Filippo Rocchetti
69
69
68
59
69
68
66
69
65
66
68
64
59
2.27
23
Vincenzo Albanese
67
68
68
58
74
69
66
60
65
62
56
70
58
2.51
23
Attack is the only way to success for Campari, isn't it!?
jandal: You’d think so. Boeckmans is a very solid rider who should benefit from the drop from PT to PCT, whilst Martin should be the best of the rest behind the top 4 in the mountains and will push for podiums and/or win MO/HI stage races which is 100% where I would take him. Ferreira I don’t see as an attacking threat but a solid rider. That’s a solid top duo and a decent cobbler, but not enough to avoid relegation for me and not attacking. Below that then the crew of cool but not necessarily high-scoring riders have to attack. Pichon and Kunshin are solid but not great leaders (in some cases) who could carry an attack of their own and will need to outperform their stats. Kadri, Naud and Christian are cool riders but not necessarily notable scorers either, in fact it’s likely they have small seasons! However they all have solid stats if the AI treats them right - I especially think Kadri and Naud will be on the offensive looking to save Campari. And unless Boeckmans and Martin go notes and maximise themselves with solid support from the rest, they might well need saving.
AbhishekLFC:As much as I hate to say this, it will be very hard for them to survive if they have to just depend on Martin and Boeckmans. Unfortunately, they have put a lot of their money on declining leaders and it does not seem right now to have been a good choice. They need Pichon and Ferreira to step up and deliver big time if they want to survive. Kadri and Kedebe should be decent scorers but even their totals added to the previously mentioned leaders won't be enough. I don't see a lot of points coming in from elsewhere.
Croatia14: Well I would’ve guessed so, yes. But with Boeckmans and Martin they have top-class leaders that both will also score well in hybrid races (don’t count Boeckmans out of several semi-cobbles results). I was a critic of that team at first, but I really started to like the opportunist crew. Kadri has written breakaway success all over his name, Kebede and Kunshin can do it on tough terrain, and the hill squad is prepared to attack as well. If Campari relegates, then it’s more due to the poor flat support and leadout for Boeckmans. But if the teams plans both of their stars very well and finds the unconventional opportunist roads aside from this couple then I think they can survive.
knockout: I don’t think that the success rate of their attacking will be the most decisive factor for their survival. I think that maximising the success of Boeckmans and Martin will be crucial. Martin still looks money for this season but will do well to avoid the megastars in the division while Boeckmans doesn't have a leadout train. While Pichon, Kadri and Kebede look like they could have some success due to attacks that leader duo is the key to success.
Campari
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
5
6
6
3
5
Croatia14
7
2
5
3
2
5
jandal7
7
5
6
4
3
5
knockout
8
4
5
4
1
4
Carlsberg – Danske Bank
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Pieter Vanspeybrouck
76
66
71
62
78
71
72
82
67
69
74
79
62
4.100
32
Christopher Juul-Jensen
73
70
78
67
76
74
71
70
66
79
80
69
67
4.100
30
Davide Appollonio
74
57
66
61
71
66
72
65
81
78
60
59
61
4.100
30
Lawrence Warbasse
70
78
75
74
75
73
72
58
60
65
72
68
74
4.100
29
Asbjorn Kragh Andersen
77
52
64
65
70
74
78
53
80
77
60
61
75
4.100
27
Ramon Sinkeldam
74
65
75
64
74
70
68
77
68
68
75
74
64
4.100
30
Marc Christian Garby
65
79
70
68
71
76
75
50
52
70
72
63
68
4.100
28
Andre Steensen
74
59
72
77
77
73
72
60
63
70
73
62
77
4.100
32
Thomas Vedel Kvist
75
62
65
64
74
75
80
71
77
78
75
73
64
4.100
32
Matteo Fabbro
65
76
73
67
70
71
72
50
61
71
72
70
70
4.97
24
Niki Ostergaard
74
51
63
62
76
69
69
75
65
74
78
62
62
4.100
31
Nathan Haas
71
65
76
68
76
72
67
63
68
73
76
63
68
4.100
30
Jesper Hansen
72
64
75
64
76
69
74
64
66
75
69
71
69
4.100
29
Christian Ranneries
70
52
56
63
68
65
77
61
78
82
60
62
65
4.100
31
Jonas Bjelkmark
70
75
68
73
73
73
73
59
60
64
68
62
73
4.100
32
Alex Aranburu
68
72
72
62
68
76
70
57
68
67
57
65
62
3.31
24
Martin Schoffmann
67
73
72
57
69
71
72
51
59
68
67
67
55
4.100
32
Tobias Foss
68
70
68
70
73
74
72
66
60
67
66
65
66
1.0
22
Kasper Asgreen
66
63
72
67
68
67
65
55
63
70
71
65
67
3.78
24
Jonas Gregaard
70
71
65
65
74
71
70
61
63
65
52
72
65
2.99
23
Enzo Wouters
67
65
67
58
69
72
71
61
71
72
54
59
58
1.48
23
Lennard Kämna
68
68
66
71
69
68
68
62
63
66
70
69
71
1.0
23
Erik Nordsaeter Resell
70
56
65
65
68
68
67
69
61
70
71
68
65
1.55
23
Joel Ponce
66
66
68
67
65
68
69
64
62
66
68
68
67
1.0
22
Arturs Belevics
69
59
61
69
68
65
66
62
63
66
70
63
69
1.63
23
Warbasse, Fabbro, Kämna, Aranburu. Will the reluctance of investing into other terrains than climbing or talents lead to relegation or did Carlsberg secretly build an incredible core for the next 3-5 years?
jandal: I think that the latter is definitely true. I really love the look of their improved core (and a new one for the next 8-10 years) with some seriously cool riders. However, Carlsberg are still a team in transition with the top half of the squad having an average age of nearly 30 (helped down a lot by AKA and Fabbro) and three of those important riders, including their leader Vanspeybrouck, declining next season. It will be a tough year this year but I think they will survive thanks to depth, no wasted terrains, and interesting riders, though they could easily get dragged into the relegation dogfight like last year. Then a tough transfers perhaps next year, but a bright future. Vanspeybrouck establishing himself as the #2 cobbler by a larger distance than 2017 would go a long way to securing a comfortable survival, but it’s going to be tough in such a deep field of top guys as we have already spoken about.
Croatia14: They took high risks this off-season, that’s without a doubt. They paid way too much for those riders, that’s without a doubt. Kämna, Aranburu, Warbasse, Fabbro are all nice riders for PCT in the future, nothing less, but nothing more. It should be either going for Leaders that can bring you to better places right now or riders that will be your long-term leaders. If Carlsberg doesn’t want to be a PCT team forever, I think they should’ve invested their money differently, or take the full transition. Like this I neither see a team that will attack the top-half nor a PT-caliber future leader. But despite all that criticism, I recognize that Carlsberg built a nice core. It’s just a nice PCT core without leaders, and with bad luck in planning they may have to break it up due to relegation and their reluctance of investing into real leaders when they had perfect low-wage high reward riders to assemble around them. The team demography with riders like Juul-Jensen, Sinkeldam, AKA, Appollonio, Steensen screamed promotion push before the off-season, at least from my point of view, but these expectations won’t be fulfilled I’m pretty sure.
knockout: I reckon Carlsberg might be once again in the same position that they know too well already: Sweating until the very last race but ultimately surviving. I don’t think the roster looked ready for a promotion push but i certainly expected the team to improve more. Warbasse was too expensive but is a nice rider to have and will contribute to the team success immediately but Fabbro was a ridiculous overpay that hurts them more than anything else. I wouldn't hold the signings of Kämna and Aranburu against BBL because those were done once the already dry market had dried up completely and it was amongst the best investments that were still possible. The team could have done better by going for some of the more interesting FAs left. Houle or Ignatiev would have surely fit under the cap with some smaller roster moves and would have strengthened the team far more than this or maybe training Juul-Jensen instead of buying Fabbro would have strengthened the team further but Carlsberg was another victim of leaders not being available this year and at least got some minor consolation prizes as assets for the future.
Carlsberg
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
7
7
4
4
Croatia14
3
4
5
8
2
5
jandal7
4
6
6
8
3
3
knockout
4
5
6
8
3
4
Carrefour – ESPN
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Jerome Coppel
76
65
75
82
77
77
72
53
64
73
72
63
82
4.100
33
Romain Vanderbiest
74
64
64
67
74
69
81
58
82
77
55
65
74
4.100
31
Frederik Nolf
74
63
66
64
77
72
69
80
63
71
75
60
64
4.100
32
Xavier Quevedo
69
71
78
65
72
72
73
56
65
75
69
72
65
4.100
28
Juan Ernesto Chamorro
66
78
75
65
72
76
70
51
66
74
78
74
64
4.100
28
Hassen Ben Nasser
68
68
78
65
75
69
69
64
69
76
75
67
65
4.100
33
Domenik Klemme
70
73
79
66
73
69
71
53
65
65
58
61
66
4.100
33
Antoine Duchesne
70
67
77
68
73
72
67
56
69
79
71
51
68
4.100
28
Christophe Laporte
73
62
73
62
72
74
74
75
72
73
67
64
65
4.100
27
Kevin Feiereisen
74
62
68
58
73
68
75
63
77
78
61
68
69
4.100
27
Wen Hao Li
75
53
61
78
73
68
71
50
75
75
64
64
78
4.100
30
Petr Ignatenko
69
77
73
71
74
70
74
52
53
63
55
63
71
4.100
32
Patrick Bercz
72
62
70
60
73
68
75
66
76
77
67
66
60
4.100
30
Daniel Schorn
76
56
61
69
67
65
77
62
77
77
66
65
72
4.100
31
Damien Gaudin
73
50
67
66
75
67
69
76
56
69
71
57
66
4.100
33
German Nicolas Tivani
68
63
65
62
67
76
68
56
74
76
72
67
70
3.23
24
Aleksa Crncevic
66
72
67
69
67
67
71
64
61
68
66
75
68
3.99
24
Jan Drago Petelin
68
72
68
62
69
68
67
50
54
69
66
60
61
2.34
23
Alan Banaszek
68
61
62
61
67
68
63
57
71
75
65
67
68
2.24
22
Amine Galdoune
69
60
63
64
68
66
62
57
72
72
65
64
66
1.15
23
From sprinters paradise to a deep hill squad. Did Carrefour do the right transition after being in danger last year?
knockout: I think they did some good moves. Coppel still looks like an incredible rider capable of keeping a team up almost single handedly while Nolf, Quevedo, Chamorro, Ben Nasser, Duchesne and Laporte are all good pickups. This squad looks much improved compared to last year!
jandal: Although individually I don’t like their new puncheurs for a team threatened (mildly) by relegation last year, I think the four of them are quite an interesting and solid quartet that should provide some fun and solid points to keep them afloat - however they don’t look as secure perhaps as Lo Cicero who provided a certain baseline of points. My one concern may be that it looks like a temporary solution - it will take a lot of effort to make the transition stick next year with two big declines on two of the puncheurs, and not a lot of quality doms outside of the quartet if they were to transition to a hill focus with an 80+ leader. An average age of 30.4 in the maxed riders makes me think it will soon be another even bigger transition/rebuild next year. Not a slight on maxime’s transfer work though as it was a tough market and he’s done a good job all the same. As knockout said I think they’ll be fine and have probably improved with the great additions of Chamorro and Laporte and a very solid one in Nolf (even if he too declines...). And then Coppel quite literally dragged them a majority of the way to safety last year of course. He’s such a brilliant talisman for the team I won’t even sound like a broken record by saying he’s the fourth declining leader they have...
Croatia14: I am not too sure as my colleagues about the success of this transition. In my opinion In-n-Out didn’t really get the most out of their huge sprinting train last year, as I would’ve liked Lo Cicero and Vanderbiest together in races to dominate sprint approaches a lot more often. That won’t happen anymore, and I’d have liked them a lot more if they would’ve kept Petit instead of Vanderbiest. Obviously Coppel is strong, but Carrefour still hasn’t got a team around Coppel which is foolish, as they could multiply their points output on the same races if they would’ve added a TTT squad or more hybrid TT guys. However, the cobbles signings all seemed reasonable as well as the hill signings. I’m not sure whether they can score significant points though: Nolf is a guy you don’t want to pick races for as a leader and neither is any of the puncheurs really. I like the depth on cobbles and hills, but I’d have like them even more with a leader on board. In comparison to jandal I like who was brought in, I just think that there are some pieces missing in the puzzle. And with declining leaders the strategy, while overall strengthening the team, doesn’t fully add up for me.
Carrefour
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
8
7
6
8
6
Croatia14
3
3
5
4
8
4
jandal7
4
6
5
6
9
6
knockout
3
4
4
4
9
6
cycleYorkshire
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Louis Meintjes
71
80
77
71
77
76
78
57
61
69
71
74
71
4.100
27
Sondre Holst Enger
73
62
69
71
71
73
77
58
81
78
62
68
77
4.100
26
Jonathan Bellis
75
68
78
62
80
71
69
58
74
75
77
68
62
4.100
31
Luke Durbridge
73
58
67
81
73
74
70
53
62
64
68
61
81
4.100
28
Emilien Viennet
72
54
67
80
75
75
72
59
55
64
73
65
80
4.100
28
Andrew Fenn
72
53
61
63
75
71
68
79
70
69
72
71
63
4.100
29
Scott Thwaites
73
59
65
61
74
70
76
76
78
76
60
70
61
4.100
29
Jocelyn Bar
77
55
70
61
75
72
79
68
77
76
72
63
61
4.100
31
Heiko Redecker
73
57
72
62
74
67
79
52
77
78
60
60
63
4.100
29
Kristjan Koren
72
71
73
77
76
74
69
61
66
65
64
69
77
4.100
33
Andrew Tennant
77
63
69
78
76
76
77
54
67
68
78
67
77
4.100
32
Matt Rowe
72
50
62
67
80
58
79
67
80
70
61
66
67
4.100
31
Ian Stannard
75
53
55
79
69
70
67
66
57
72
69
61
79
4.100
32
Tim Kennaugh
74
77
70
73
71
70
70
54
66
63
72
59
72
4.100
28
Artem Ovechkin
72
61
70
76
69
74
63
56
61
70
73
63
76
4.100
32
Gabriel Cullaigh
69
60
65
63
69
68
72
69
75
77
66
67
67
3.26
23
William Ford
75
68
69
74
71
74
72
58
68
73
80
63
74
4.100
31
Yu Takenouchi
73
58
64
61
72
70
68
74
65
70
67
68
61
4.100
31
George Atkins
77
50
58
55
69
64
60
73
72
66
61
58
55
4.100
28
Benjamin Thomas
69
56
65
73
72
70
66
64
71
77
64
65
74
3.2
24
Anders Skaarseth
66
71
69
68
68
69
69
55
61
65
56
68
66
3.41
24
Stephen Williams
67
70
68
66
71
72
71
63
65
67
68
70
66
1.0
23
Hayato Okamoto
67
62
65
67
71
71
66
61
71
71
63
70
70
2.51
24
cycleYorkshire - The 2019 version of Generali on the road to glory?
AbhishekLFC:I think they will be on everyone’s list as outside (or maybe even inside, given how the division ended up) bets for promotion. They’ve done a great job to supplement what they had last season, and get through a positive transfer window to push on for promotion. Although Bellis is a great rider to lead on the hills, the division definitely got stronger in that area. Besides that however, they’re covered in all areas, much akin to Generali and we know were the latter ended up. Just to be clear, I don’t really think they’ll storm the division, but I definitely expect a promotion push this time.
Croatia14: I’ve recognized many teams having cycleYorkshire high up on their list, but here I tend to disagree. Tvetcov really will be missed and while the replacements like Enger are good, I think the team overperformed massively last year. The TTT squad however will be dominant with Generalis absence. The team does have Enger and Meintjes as a leader, but they are not top of the class and need some careful planning. What I love though is the energy the team can bring to a flat race.
Fun Fact: Before researching on them I was sure that they’d be in relegation trouble. I completely changed my mind and had to fully re-write my part about this. CycleYorkshire are for real, even though I still see flaws in their hills team and Fenn blocking the much stronger Thwaites. Planning is everything for them deciding between P20 and P3. I still think they’ll be more like 2017 Generali, but everything is possible.
knockout: The comparison is quite fair because their TTT team will be carrying their team at times and they have some similar squad building ideas. I can’t see them being as dominant as Generali and in fact i think it is more likely that they don’t promote at all. I agree with Croatia that cycleYorkshire is very dependant on good planning and i think they will finish around tenth but everything in the upper half seems possible.
jandal: I think Croatia is right that they could go either way. I will say first to him that I don’t 100% mind the Thwaites/Fenn duo depending how the AI handles them as I think cobbles is the one terrain where the better but lower main stat leader can take over. Add onto that I love the idea of Thwaites in the early attacks which his stats are well-suited to doing. However of course it could go wrong! I think as Abhi said they won’t storm the division as Generali did as they’re quite simply nowhere near as good in the road stages and the TT guys aren’t as versatile.
cycleYorkshire
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
7
7
9
6
Croatia14
4
2
5
3
10
6
jandal7
5
6
6
6
10
7
knockout
6
4
6
4
9
6
Delvaux
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Jacopo Guarnieri
76
58
66
51
77
76
83
64
82
81
68
62
75
4.100
32
Maurice Schreurs
70
69
81
67
76
72
71
62
71
74
69
66
66
4.100
31
Vegard Breen
77
61
70
68
72
72
71
78
73
72
74
66
68
4.100
29
Mikhail Ignatiev
78
64
73
78
78
71
72
52
70
79
83
53
78
4.100
34
Michel Kreder
73
63
70
64
72
68
80
66
78
80
56
64
64
4.100
32
Rüdiger Selig
71
53
65
65
73
68
76
63
79
81
64
59
65
4.100
30
Arthur Vichot
70
65
76
65
77
68
69
60
66
80
82
73
65
4.100
31
Tony Gallopin
75
71
74
75
79
78
74
66
70
73
80
70
74
4.100
31
Jasper Stuyven
70
63
77
58
75
67
68
62
66
74
79
69
58
4.100
27
Lars Van der Haar
77
66
72
66
70
72
69
75
72
70
76
78
71
4.100
28
Juan Jose Lobato del Valle
72
62
67
57
73
72
72
69
77
80
61
67
65
4.100
31
Thomas Bonnin
65
77
72
63
71
68
69
51
54
73
76
79
63
4.100
30
Artemio Moschella
58
79
69
69
73
70
71
52
51
62
63
75
69
4.100
31
Alessandro De Marchi
70
75
73
64
72
69
72
56
60
69
81
72
64
4.100
33
Ben Hermans
76
63
74
70
77
69
69
59
65
72
75
61
70
4.100
33
Andrea Vendrame
70
60
71
57
70
71
71
60
69
71
64
66
69
3.0
25
Gregory Daniel
72
64
70
72
71
71
68
55
56
68
71
68
71
3.99
25
Lennard Hofstede
68
66
71
61
70
69
69
61
60
70
74
70
61
3.63
25
Ryan Christensen
74
66
67
64
72
71
74
51
67
62
68
75
64
3.4
23
Nur Aiman Zariff
63
58
59
59
68
60
66
60
71
73
60
66
65
1.0
22
Did the team shoot themselves in the foot by barely renewing anybody from their CT dominant team last season?
knockout: Yes, they did. They lost lots of riders who would have been good value and would have at least provided good sale value. Which makes the squad they assembled even more impressive because their best 10 riders could easily strengthen every single PT team and those don’t even include strong role riders like Hermans or Bonnin. How often is there a PCT team whose strongest rider was already with them in the CT that should have nothing to do with relegation?
AbhishekLFC:I think the easy answer to this question is by referring to how much they paid for Guarnieri to re-sign him, albeit without actually knowing renewal demands. They made a team which was tipped for immediate promotion to the CT, and they duly delivered. They probably should’ve stuck to the winning formula.
jandal: I’m not sure if they shot themselves in the foot exactly but I agree that renewing more of their riders would have been a better call. Keeping Guarnieri, but definitely Kadri, Favilli and their talents would have been on 50k and good value for their team or for sale. However, I really like the core they brought up with them nevertheless and I think they have kept their identity and style from the CT if not all of the same riders. Breen, Vichot, Van der Haar, Kreder (and Guarnieri) is a great squad of riders continuing from the CT dominators and they have built out nicely from that, keeping the same type of team and adding some really great riders such as Gallopin to the mix as well as the new leaders.
Croatia14: Yes. I’d guess the easier negotiations of the manager’s first appearance are to blame for the tough time Sykkel_Freak had to go through in the process. They missed out on an even greater team imo especially with the Guarnieri thing. However, this approach also left huge wage space to low-ball multiple riders and take more shots on other riders, which may have resulted in some of those fantastic wages of their riders as the level of aggression with which they could afford to test the market was even higher. I still think they could’ve been better by keeping Guarnieri and a couple of others, but nevertheless that should not prevent us from praising them for their outstanding Free Agency and transfer moves itself.
Will spending so much money on the Yates signing and training be worth it, considering the loss of Altur in the process?
AbhishekLFC:Right now, Desigual seem to be odds on favourites to jump back immediately to the PT, so it seems like they shouldn't miss Altur too much. Yates is a great addition to the team and his multidimensional abilities should bring in points wherever he rides. Add to that Tenorio and his climbing prowess and everything else behind these two and they've got themselves a winning formula. Still think they overpaid for the Yates transfer though!
jandal: I will say, seeing a Spanish team swapping their very classy Spanish leader who is just 26 years old for a British leader, a year older at 27, whilst paying 3/4 of a million on top was slightly surprising but I don’t hate it. Yates is a very very cool rider who already without but especially with that training is a big points scorer and clearly someone the manager is going to turn into a beast. Altur has some flaws (as does Yates) that I think would have eventually seen him surpassed by other young classics riders and never quite reaching the position of a top 3 cobbler. It’s a hard one to call but Desigual haven’t been fleeced or ruined the rest of their transfers in chasing and training Yates and if that’s who the manager believes is the rider to lead the team forward instead of Altur then I’d give him the benefit of the doubt and say that right now it’s ok. As Abhishek said they are still in a fine position looking at promoting, although they possibly overpaid.
Croatia14: Hell yes! Simon Yates, in my opinion, has one of the best stat combinations in all of PCT. Even in some sort of bunch sprints the new AI will benefit him, and he’ll be a threat for the win on many races. If planned well he’s definitely Top 25 individual scorers material, I could well see him end up in the Top 10. Altur was a nice young cobbler on a nice wage and left a hole in the squad, but Yates is better. He was expensive, but Desigual could afford to pay that and I’m almost certain it will pay off well.
knockout: I don’t like the price that Yates + training cost but one has to admire how good the stat combo of Yates is post-training and how good he is suited to further training in future years. Considering how likely it looks that they promote regardless of losing Altur it looks like a solid deal for them to overpay for someone like Yates.
Desigual
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
9
5
3
7
5
Croatia14
9
6
4
2
3
8
jandal7
9
8
4
3
6
6
knockout
9
7
4
2
6
8
Duolingo
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Oscar Avelino
71
54
64
57
70
66
77
64
83
78
60
67
70
4.100
32
Bruno Borges
70
70
80
60
75
73
70
54
71
81
75
65
60
4.100
28
Yuri Trofimov
70
74
79
73
74
72
72
62
70
70
73
67
73
4.100
35
Rafael Reis
70
81
73
76
78
76
78
56
50
63
66
68
76
4.100
27
Fabio Duarte
67
79
67
74
73
75
76
51
61
72
66
60
74
4.100
33
Dominique Cornu
73
65
70
79
71
73
70
67
59
70
73
60
79
4.100
34
Zakkari Dempster
74
54
64
79
71
74
73
60
71
72
60
57
79
4.100
32
Frederico Figueiredo
73
76
73
72
77
75
77
55
59
68
67
69
72
4.100
28
Choon Huat Goh
69
74
76
70
74
74
74
62
62
68
79
65
69
4.100
29
Georgios Bouglas
72
64
70
58
72
67
76
53
78
78
62
67
58
4.100
29
Walter Trillini
70
64
75
65
75
69
73
57
73
76
70
67
73
4.100
28
Antonio Barbio
68
74
72
75
72
73
68
59
63
67
76
71
75
4.100
26
Libin Chen
73
58
62
67
73
67
75
56
78
77
60
64
69
4.100
33
David Veilleux
71
65
74
65
73
69
69
60
72
77
73
57
65
4.100
32
Yoshimitsu Hiratsuka
67
77
74
63
73
74
77
51
50
60
63
61
63
4.100
31
Shane Archbold
73
58
62
77
72
71
70
60
73
75
68
66
67
4.100
30
Ivo Oliveira
67
67
70
74
72
69
63
61
70
72
66
67
74
3.18
23
Tim Merlier
70
56
67
58
69
69
60
71
75
74
63
72
60
3.0
27
Rui Oliveira
68
65
71
69
72
70
66
66
73
74
62
66
70
3.2
23
Rodrigo Nascimento
68
59
66
77
66
70
65
50
54
56
61
54
61
4.100
34
Nicola Bagioli
67
68
70
63
70
69
69
60
68
72
72
65
64
2.0
24
Nikita Razumov
68
62
67
72
71
66
67
56
64
66
66
64
72
2.23
23
Edoardo Affini
70
63
66
70
71
72
67
64
64
69
71
68
71
1.0
23
Markus Kopfauf
65
62
66
61
64
70
64
52
70
69
70
68
75
2.33
23
The transfer season of Duolingo: Retirement home or renaissance?
jandal: Retirement Home. In the real-life Renaissance, Michelangelo, Raphael, and the rest of the ninja turtles didn’t start reinventing all of Western culture for a year then develop arthritis and become useless. Duolingo brought in four new 75+ OVL riders for the promotion effort. Their ages? 35, 34, 33 and 32 - all declining next year. It was a one-shot-at-promotion tactic and although they should have a good season I’m not sure it was entirely successful even in that sense. With such a lovely duo of home leaders at 28 and 27 in Borges and Reis and a really solid and fairly young (average age of 27 for the domestiques), I’d have dearly loved for them to take a step back, not unlike Berg, and secure their future rather than bringing in four leaders who will decline next year, to either send a weak base to PT if they are successful, or otherwise to effectively waste a season finishing lower top 10 in PCT without huge benefit to their future.
Croatia14: One could say they are not a retirement home because they got rid of long lasting leader Tiago Machado. But then, Trofimov, Duarte and Cornu scream like a lot of pressure to directly re-promote. And if I have to be completely honest I like the idea, but I do not like how it was delivered. Duarte and Cornu both are huge gamble riders and also Trofimov does not cut a lot of safe points for a promotion push. There won’t be any team that would be hit as hard as them by not promoting. If they could’ve invested their money in a big time leader instead, no matter his age, this would’ve looked less like a retirement motorhome but more like a vintage race truck.
knockout: I’d say retirement home looks more like it since Trofimov, Duarte and Cornu will have the final seasons where they can still score this year. Which means that this is the season they have to promote and i think the team looks ready to bounce back to PT.
Duolingo
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
7
0
9
3
Croatia14
5
7
5
0
8
5
jandal7
7
7
7
1
9
6
knockout
5
7
7
0
6
5
ENI – MOL
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Ki Ho Choi
71
80
74
75
77
76
79
63
59
68
68
71
74
4.100
28
Cesare Di Maggio
65
65
82
62
73
68
65
51
65
75
67
73
62
4.100
31
Amanuel Gebrezgabihier
68
70
79
66
74
74
72
53
67
69
77
66
64
4.100
25
Roman Maksimov
72
53
60
69
70
69
75
58
81
84
59
64
69
4.100
31
Richard Antonio Carapaz
69
80
71
72
71
76
77
50
56
65
71
61
72
4.100
26
Sergei Pomoshnikov
71
79
74
64
78
76
74
52
64
66
61
67
64
4.100
29
Daniel Paulus
69
74
77
64
71
68
73
56
62
71
73
67
64
4.100
26
Kobe Vanoverschelde
72
54
62
59
74
64
77
63
80
75
67
62
72
4.100
32
George Alexandru Stancu
67
78
69
66
70
74
73
50
59
71
70
66
66
4.100
27
Alfredo Balloni
73
60
66
78
67
71
68
54
63
67
72
64
78
4.100
30
Yannick Martinez
72
59
68
67
70
67
74
73
76
76
72
68
73
4.100
31
Karol Andrzej Domagalski
68
75
71
74
70
69
75
54
62
65
65
62
71
4.100
30
Kristoffer Skjerping
67
70
77
62
71
67
68
52
58
65
62
73
62
4.100
26
Kim Michely
68
64
75
59
73
69
66
59
67
75
73
77
59
4.100
31
Gaetan Pons
72
66
73
67
73
74
69
67
74
76
65
67
69
4.100
27
Krisztian Lovassy
68
63
64
56
68
68
73
73
77
77
74
71
56
4.100
31
Mujtaba Hussein
68
68
64
77
71
69
71
50
51
53
65
60
77
4.100
31
Pablo Mudarra
71
68
77
62
74
70
71
51
64
68
62
64
65
4.100
28
Pedro Pablo Pereyra
64
77
67
61
71
74
66
59
50
64
66
73
61
4.100
26
Charles Matte
67
75
70
71
72
71
70
51
60
51
70
61
71
4.100
26
Stylianos Farantakis
68
59
64
71
72
66
69
66
73
74
61
62
73
2.36
24
Marton Dina
68
69
69
69
68
66
70
57
62
71
69
62
69
2.34
23
Dominik Neuman
70
65
69
64
67
71
73
63
68
71
68
70
66
2.0
24
Daniel Moricz
67
58
66
65
67
66
65
69
61
63
75
64
65
1.0
23
Everything screams one-trick at ENI. The PCT team status as well?
knockout: Yes, I reckon that might be the case. I actually like the signings of Choi and Maksimov. Choi is the only one in the team capable of spelling v-e-r-s-a-t-i-l-i-t-y and should benefit from the change of game while Maksimov is a nice gamble that might or might not turn out great. But looking at the rest of the squad I’m clueless where the whole salary cap was spent. Unless Di Maggio reinvents himself, they look to be in trouble!
jandal: Sadly it looks like it could be that way. And that’s a shame as there is the (very faint) makings of a solid team here. I spent a while chasing Choi this transfers and I have a lot of respect for him as a leader, and his triumvirate with Carapaz and Pomoshnikov doesn’t look too bad with solid RES stats and one of them nearly has an ACC over 70, no mean feat for a jaxika recruit. Gebrezgabihier won’t be flashy with his own ACC issues but is one of the best U25 puncheurs and should collect some points that way. But sadly he’s stuck behind Di Maggio, who along with Maksimov makes for such a hit and (in the case of the former) mainly miss duo - not bad riders (especially the latter), but not who I would want to be relying on. After this though the team totally falls apart, and excluding Paulus and Pons they aren’t looking remotely exciting, with next to no versatility (for a reason of literacy knockout has already discussed), not much inspiration and not much chance of over performing their expected position in the relegation fight.
Croatia14: Just as ENI seemed like they elevated their game by clearing plenty of dead wood at the end of the team, a view on the team does make fans of the team shiver. If you’d just look at the main stats this team is a solid PCT team. But if riders can’t do different stuff, then it’s more and more difficult to use the great options on the PCT calendar for yourself. With a climbing AI much more difficult to assess I can’t see a strategy based on pure climbers or pure puncheurs work out to satisfaction. I also see Maksimov as an upside, who I really wanted to buy two years ago myself, but I’m not a believer in ENI-MOLs one-trick strategy.
ENI - MOL
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
6
1
4
3
Croatia14
5
3
4
2
2
1
jandal7
6
6
5
2
4
1
knockout
5
4
3
1
2
4
Iberia – Team Degenkolb
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
John Degenkolb
76
61
69
67
73
71
74
72
84
81
70
61
67
4.100
30
Ion Izagirre
71
74
81
77
73
72
69
54
60
64
69
70
77
4.100
30
Jakub Kratochvila
67
76
77
70
70
68
72
54
53
64
72
72
70
4.100
31
Pedro Merino Criado
73
58
69
57
72
69
79
58
78
80
57
68
57
4.100
32
Ramon Domene
73
50
57
57
73
68
71
76
74
75
62
61
57
4.100
29
Roy Jans
76
53
74
63
74
73
65
68
74
74
68
70
66
4.100
29
Alexis Gougeard
70
63
77
67
73
71
71
54
60
68
77
61
67
4.100
26
Nejc Kosic
72
58
66
61
74
70
67
77
59
64
78
67
61
4.100
29
Benoit Cosnefroy
73
68
70
74
75
77
69
69
69
69
79
74
74
3.4
24
Jan Brockhoff
79
63
70
65
74
76
71
63
62
73
64
68
68
4.100
25
Ben King
75
63
65
67
73
71
79
63
78
73
75
61
67
4.100
30
Marc Soler
68
74
70
72
74
72
74
54
54
65
60
61
75
4.89
26
Ivan Garcia Cortina
72
64
65
68
73
71
67
71
73
72
70
72
68
3.97
24
Cyril Barthe
72
68
71
56
71
69
67
69
68
72
74
68
61
3.0
23
Egan Bernal
68
71
67
70
73
73
73
64
67
66
61
68
68
1.0
22
Juan Abenhamar Gallego Martin
77
62
68
66
68
62
72
68
62
60
80
75
66
4.100
32
Artem Nych
73
68
66
65
72
69
70
65
63
73
80
72
67
3.49
24
Jasper Philipsen
67
57
66
67
67
67
65
68
72
72
63
61
67
1.0
21
Kobe Goossens
68
64
68
62
62
68
59
64
68
70
72
74
66
1.0
23
Lionel Taminiaux
68
65
67
59
70
69
59
67
69
69
72
69
64
1.0
23
Mathijs Paasschens
72
56
68
63
71
71
68
66
68
66
73
64
62
1.0
23
Dilmurdjon Siddikov
68
62
64
68
69
70
67
66
65
66
75
71
68
1.0
22
Never has a team relied as much on it's sponsor as with Team Degenkolb, or do they have some hidden treasures?
jandal: Sadly and slightly surprisingly I’m not sure they do. The loss of Blythe last season would have sent them down to the bottom half, and although Degenkolb has potentially less competition this year, that’s where I’m predicting they’ll be since they haven’t replaced him in any immediate way. There’s the talismanic Thuringian, the newly-trained Izagirre, and not a hell of a lot else. Those two don’t help either as they’re such dominating presences that don’t lend themselves to teammates breaking away. Roy Jans could do a fair bit if he races well and Pedro Merino Criado isn’t useless if he goes to the right races. Domene could do alright and benefit from the new AI as a mid-stage attacker on the cobbles but wow does that MO/HI combo look awful for making him a versatile attacking option beyond the flattest of classics! I’m not sure how far Kratochvila or Gougeard can over perform but they should be ok but not spectacular. U23 World Champion Nych could get in some breakaways. Jan Brockhoff to me is their most interesting rider though, with a lovely FL-HI-RES-ACC combo making him an intriguing rider for stage hunting and races like Lisbon (if Degenkolb goes to Veenendaal)! I think the Merino-Brockhoff-Jans combo could be the key to keeping the spirits up when neither Degenkolb nor Izagirre are around.
knockout: To be fair, no other sponsor demands 30 percent of the cap to be part of the team name. No wonder that the team struggles to sign co-stars for him. I don't see anyone I would want to highlight as hidden treasure but spending another 30 percent of the cap on level one talent is particularly noteworthy too and should guarantee that they'll be in a good situation long-term too.
AbhishekLFC:The talent hunt in the second half of the transfers definitely hurt them too, and it’s not just about the dependence on Degenkolb. Not getting one of Bernal or Philipsen would’ve meant getting in two more genuine point-scorers to replace the loss of Blythe. While their teams looks promising for the future, if they can keep hold of their talents, this strategy was a very big hit to their present.
Croatia14: I think they did a good job this offseason. With Izagirre and Degenkolb you now have two perfectly fitting successors once they retire. If they promote or not does not determine their success, they can still promote next year with the wage freed up in renewals and for this year they have a transitional season. My hidden treasure in the team is obviously Roy Jans, who has a fantastic stat combination for his own and for a leadout. And I do believe Izagirre will score a lot better this year with the new AI.
Iberia
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
2
6
10
5
3
4
Croatia14
1
3
9
2
2
8
jandal7
1
4
9
3
3
7
knockout
2
4
10
2
1
6
ISA – Hexacta
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Natnael Berhane
68
81
75
66
77
74
73
52
62
68
67
71
65
4.100
29
Eduardo Sepulveda
70
75
77
75
74
73
71
52
70
73
70
63
76
4.100
28
David Boily
67
76
78
70
72
72
69
56
68
74
69
79
61
4.100
29
Carlos Betancourt
69
73
80
60
72
71
64
52
67
74
75
67
59
4.100
30
Robert Bush
74
63
63
62
75
73
71
78
71
73
66
74
62
4.100
29
Ilnur Zakarin
72
73
77
68
74
73
68
61
65
73
76
70
68
4.100
30
Jianhua Ji
68
80
75
69
73
69
73
58
61
65
66
69
69
4.100
32
Emiliano Contreras
72
64
68
64
73
75
77
59
78
80
73
68
74
4.100
25
Sam Harrison
72
61
67
72
73
70
76
73
78
81
60
62
72
4.100
27
Ilia Koshevoy
69
76
73
68
71
72
74
56
60
69
74
75
67
4.100
28
Emerson Santos
76
63
64
66
71
72
76
53
78
78
70
67
74
4.100
28
Isaac Bolivar
73
61
66
69
74
70
69
77
64
69
68
75
69
4.100
28
Chun Kai Feng
78
71
73
70
74
72
71
70
60
62
74
68
71
4.100
31
Souheil Khederi
67
74
76
61
68
67
71
59
58
73
67
71
59
4.100
28
Murilo Affonso
69
76
72
73
72
70
74
56
54
68
74
53
73
4.100
28
Michael Rodriguez Galindo
69
74
76
66
72
72
69
55
58
67
73
71
66
4.100
30
Ricardo Van der Velde
68
74
71
69
69
75
73
72
68
72
69
73
69
4.100
33
Daniel Juarez
74
64
74
65
73
72
70
67
74
74
68
68
70
4.100
31
Farzad Khodayari
66
75
73
62
71
72
72
52
64
72
72
80
62
4.100
27
Ahmad Arissol
74
66
71
72
70
73
71
72
62
68
76
70
71
4.100
28
Flavio De Luna
67
74
71
75
67
72
70
66
56
68
66
67
74
4.100
29
Sven Vandousselaere
74
55
69
76
72
72
71
62
70
71
76
60
76
4.100
31
Evgeny Russo
68
70
74
72
72
71
69
71
65
69
63
61
70
4.100
30
Salah Eddine Mraouni
77
66
69
72
71
72
71
66
71
74
71
64
75
4.100
27
Jefferson Cepeda Hernandez
69
66
69
63
67
66
64
61
66
68
66
67
61
1.0
23
Jesus Villegas
66
68
67
67
67
68
68
55
61
68
63
65
67
1.0
22
Have ISA - Hexacta turned themselves into possible promotion contenders by mostly standing still in terms of big-name transfers?
AbhishekLFC:It is really strange to see a team lose out on so many transfer targets and yet maybe came out of the transfer window with a better shot at promotion than last season! They did well to augment their leaders, to get in a strong second line, so to say, and get a solid depth in their squad.
jandal: I’m not sure, however I do like the look of them. As Croatia (kind of) said earlier, perhaps they lack the scorers who can kick on to the top level of the PCT to help them into the main promotion conversation. Their bottom half isn’t made up of potential scorers or super depth which is an issue therefore, but every maxed rider looks very unique, versatile and helpful - I really like the domestique squad even if too much of the squad is purer domestiques and not second/third tier scorers for a depth approach, though none are obvious to cut! Looking to the scorers then, and the addition and training of Sepulveda is a truly awesome one. I’ve already said what a cool rider he is and one likely to get a very good points haul before you even get into any surprise scoring. Contreras is a nice sprinter with his RES and an okay hill but not brilliant. There’s some other very solid domestiques added in the last few days (big shoutout to Juarez who is very cool) as mentioned, but the question is partly right, their standing in the division has improved a solid amount by standing still in my view. I don’t think their depth is powerful enough or their leaders high scoring enough for a proper promotion battle but they’re a cool team who maybe should fight in the lower top 10 - however that part of the division as everyone keeps saying is very open.
Croatia14: I do think standing still is never the perfect solution. And, with the arrival of Sepulveda, they did not stand still as they got a rider I expect to score massive for them. Looking at the team demography however, I hate that they still have Betancourt and Ji possibly standing in the way of the much more promising looking teammates. If they would’ve cut those two and even Berhane and invested in a big time leader, then they surely would’ve had it all for a promotion push. Now they more likely have to watch their back than streaming forward.
jandal: By the way Scorchio, if you do want to follow Croatia’s advice and sell Berhane, you know who to call.
knockout: They definitely lack a winning rider to compete for promotion. I’ve (wrong) used the term of a “boring team” in the past for teams that won’t win a lot but will collect lots of depth points throughout the year without promotion or relegation chances and this team fits that bill too. They look too good to relegate but i also dont see who could really win anything this season. That should not hide the fact that they have added some really interesting riders like Sepulveda in the first place though.
ISA - Hexacta
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
6
6
3
9
Croatia14
5
4
2
4
3
8
jandal7
7
6
5
5
3
8
knockout
6
5
2
3
1
8
Kraftwerk Man Machine
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Mark Cavendish
72
56
64
65
73
70
78
69
82
80
59
64
75
4.100
33
Aleksandar Flügel
68
71
80
64
77
65
67
58
67
72
70
79
64
4.100
33
Dominik Nerz
70
80
72
73
75
72
74
56
64
68
65
60
73
4.100
30
Wesley Kreder
73
64
75
63
75
71
77
66
77
78
71
67
63
4.100
29
Marco Haller
72
61
65
56
72
71
76
58
80
79
66
64
71
4.100
28
Daniel Teklehaimanot
68
77
74
74
72
72
76
55
64
70
73
67
74
4.100
31
Lucas Schädlich
70
54
64
80
70
71
73
62
70
76
64
67
80
4.100
31
Willi Willwohl
73
53
64
56
71
67
78
65
79
78
61
64
56
4.100
25
Aberlardo Ablenado
67
78
67
72
73
77
77
52
51
65
59
64
72
4.100
28
Jocelin Maillet
64
77
70
60
69
76
69
51
55
77
65
65
60
4.100
31
Alexandre Geniez
67
75
71
74
71
73
77
53
57
71
66
70
74
4.100
31
Nico Denz
71
74
76
67
70
70
70
65
63
73
71
65
71
4.100
25
Laurens De Vreese
74
66
72
60
72
70
70
74
70
70
67
64
62
4.100
31
Florian Scheit
66
72
76
58
72
71
69
50
64
71
77
66
58
4.100
28
Gennadiy Tatarinov
69
75
74
63
71
71
68
57
65
73
76
63
63
4.100
28
Josue Gonzalez Cortes
72
72
74
74
70
72
73
62
71
72
70
68
74
4.100
31
Alexandre Shushemoin
68
74
75
62
75
71
73
60
56
72
64
67
62
4.100
32
Sang Hong Park
72
61
72
67
73
70
73
66
75
76
61
67
70
4.100
30
Aiman Cahyadi
70
70
75
66
70
71
70
58
68
69
66
70
66
4.100
26
Johann van Zyl
74
71
74
73
74
74
72
71
62
66
73
60
73
4.100
28
Westley Gough
76
59
64
74
69
71
75
52
76
76
60
55
74
4.100
31
Max Walsleben
72
59
67
67
72
68
61
74
68
70
70
72
70
4.100
29
Fabien Grellier
72
65
69
57
64
67
62
70
64
65
56
63
59
3.24
25
Were Kraftwerk the most stagnant team in the transfers and where has it left them in the division?
jandal: Most stagnant in transfers? I’m really not sure that’s right given the moves to improve their mountains squad beyond Maillet, with some solid names brought in. Not to mention the very nice trio of versatile domestiques in Gonzalez, De Vreese and van Zyl. But most stagnant team in the division in the last three years I 100% would agree with. Their standing in the division has dropped to a degree I think they have a chance at being the worst returning team (though that might be a stretch), all down to the decline of Flugel and Cavendish, who especially in the former’s case look rather ordinary rather than the top 20 duo who took them to the top half. The sprint squad still looks strong and should be good value for their own chances in the case of Haller and Kreder who I hope are planned well. The mountains squad as I mentioned is the real story and I love what they’ve done even if Nerz isn’t the leader to replace the stardust of Cavendish and Flugel at their peak. To add to the already nice Maillet they’ve added four very cool riders in Nerz, Abelenado, Geniez and Teklehaimanot, who should be good enough to chase his own points. I’m not quite sure what to make of Kraftwerk but I’m actually thinking they should have a bit of fun and should quite solidly survive in contrast to my first thoughts of slight danger, even if they will slip a fair bit.
Croatia14: Exactly. Looking at leaders this does seem like a very questionable transfer period. Cav and Flügel decline and, especially the wingman, are not top of the class anymore. Nerz is solid but was very costly. The true potential in the team though lays in their versatile depth scorers. Using them right will be vital to keep the heads above the water. And in this transfer season, Kraftwerk did very well in strengthening their riders on the lower positions with the fantastic additions of Van Zyl and Gonzalez especially, which I’m sure will both score big points for the team. They still have to be careful, in the shadows of the “stagnancy” in the leaders department Kraftwerk has built an enormous supporting cast.
knockout: I think Kraftwerk had a pretty good transfer season. At least it looks like their main goal was to finance some Demare training and they surely achieved that with the ridiculously high fee they’ve paid for Nerz. Thanks for nothing!
The team seems to care more about overpaying one dimensional German (/Austria) (co-) leaders year after year which leaves little space to actually improve. They have nice depth with very versatile riders but the leader situation surely looks stagnant over the years. This left them in the weird situation of being too good to relegate but also too weak to promote. Or did the decline of Cav and Flügel hurt them more than I’d expect?
Kraftwerk
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
8
2
6
5
Croatia14
4
3
7
2
5
8
jandal7
6
5
7
2
6
5
knockout
3
3
7
1
6
5
Kulczyk – Alitalia
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Jerome Baugnies
78
57
72
62
80
73
73
80
65
73
74
65
62
4.100
32
Petr Vakoc
71
71
80
69
75
71
67
52
71
74
61
66
69
4.100
27
Pierre Paolo Penasa
70
80
74
70
75
72
77
50
57
76
68
64
70
4.100
28
David Abal
67
80
69
76
73
76
74
60
57
72
70
72
76
4.100
33
Enrico Barbin
69
68
78
63
75
73
70
57
71
76
65
67
63
4.100
29
Tomasz Marczynski
75
71
74
72
74
76
74
62
69
73
78
72
68
4.100
35
Mektel Eyob
68
76
76
66
74
69
73
55
62
66
72
73
66
4.100
26
Jempy Drucker
73
59
64
67
73
69
70
76
73
73
66
78
73
4.100
33
Chiaffredo Grippo
63
67
77
58
72
69
69
50
66
69
85
79
58
4.100
32
Ryan Mullen
75
62
70
78
75
74
72
62
60
70
61
64
78
4.100
25
Anthony Lavoine
73
60
60
62
71
64
77
65
80
78
62
79
62
4.100
31
Patrick Gretsch
71
51
62
77
69
72
67
53
69
70
61
64
79
4.100
32
Jani Tewelde
74
58
64
53
75
72
77
59
78
77
60
52
67
4.100
28
Mattia Pozzo
67
76
70
58
70
72
74
53
59
75
64
72
58
4.100
32
Tony Martin
72
66
70
77
72
72
67
55
63
70
69
60
76
4.100
34
Polychronis Tzortzakis
70
61
63
75
74
69
70
55
75
74
62
60
76
4.100
30
Kamil Gradek
72
64
72
73
73
71
72
69
62
75
70
61
73
4.100
29
Cristian Cominelli
70
55
67
64
74
73
68
75
59
58
62
66
64
4.100
31
Eryk Laton
72
60
65
68
71
71
75
62
74
75
73
66
73
4.24
26
Piotr Brozyna
68
74
66
70
72
69
70
54
64
67
61
65
70
3.20
24
Have Kulczyk put the finishing touches needed for promotion?
Croatia14: No. In fact, I absolutely disliked the moves of Kulczyk this offseason. While training Penasa was a good decision and one of the better trainings this year, Valls was a great rider for the team and will be missed significantly. And I don’t see any rider that will make up for the points lost there. Baugnies also should have a much tougher time with Summerhill and Stallaert around, while Vakoc has been everything but satisfying for his managers in the past. I think, sadly, that Kulczyk is one of the likelier teams to disappoint this season. But then again, I underestimated them for two years straight now.
AbhishekLFC:Losing Valls does make them weaker, I have to agree with that. Baugnies had increased competition but he still should be a top 3 cobbler in the PCT. If I had to make a guess, I'd say they end up exactly where they did last season, and that's just a couple of spots below the promotion places.
knockout: I agree with both of you. The team doesn't look much better and they shouldn't really get into promotion spots. I don’t like the Penasa training because frankly, it probably doesn't make a huge difference and Vakoc is a candidate to underperform.
jandal: There’s a fair bit to like about Kulczyk but they seem to lack a bit of oomph with the improvements to the northern classics leaders in the division giving Baugnies a tough situation to try and repeat his heroics of last year - though since it’s Baugnies you can’t count him out I suppose! I think Vakoc will be ok a bit more than the Germans but he could also underperform as said, and Abal I could also see slipping on mountain stages too often to score big enough and not replacing Valls wholly - though that RES does look solid and he could surprise. Not sure what Croatia means by nobody making up Valls’ points at all when Abal seems a pretty direct replacement at least in intention. Penasa should be better than last year with the training but perhaps not hugely as knockout suggested, though improvement surley happens. Eyob won’t be as good without the white jersey points, whilst Mullen will be a bit better with no Zmorka ahead of him in the U25 category of the TT races. They have made a decent go at a TTT train too which should help out a little in those races. Barbin with more freedom is an interesting proposition, and Marczynski looks like an extremely cool new addition. I don’t think they have put the finishing touches needed for promotion on at all but they could still do it as well and are in the conversation for an outside shot in my view.
Yaytens or Naytens - will the abusive relationship between manager and rider finally improve?
AbhishekLFC:I don’t think any team has been looking forward to the change of games as much as Lierse to see if one of their stars can live up to his stats! PCM 15 hated this guy. We need to wait and watch what the new game does to him.
knockout: He will improve a bit but he will not suddenly turn into someone who racks in tons of wins or highlight performances. Lierse will be an interesting team to watch and i would point to Van Asbroeck and Gaviria as a much bigger reason for that as their point scoring this season is completely unpredictable to me.
Croatia14: I do not think so. The astronomical sum that manager Ollfahrd has demanded for him in offseason may have driven the lackluster hills “leader” to even worse motivation this year, as both sides seemed to be done with each other in beforehand. Training Cerny was only the latest of signs for the lack of trust in Zico. The team, and I say that in all honesty, would’ve maybe even been better of in having Gaviria leading their hills squad in some races over Naytens.
jandal: I think knockout hits it right for me of the others who have answered. I say this tentatively because it is Waeytens (so maybe my answer is “Maytens”?) but I think he should behave a little closer to his 80 HI even if he is nothing special. I do find Lierse an interesting and potentially very good team but he’s not a part of that interest as I doubt as knockout said we see many “highlight performances”. They potentially have three out of five terrains with the best U25 rider, one of those being the very exciting Gaviria who isn’t even maxed yet which is just a bit scary! He and Van Asbroeck have a lot of potential but if they could stop using that to beat Xero riders that would be lovely. Their usual most exciting rider, Dall’Oste, will hope the transition to PCM18 doesn’t take away his breakaway cheat code (or see too many better riders joining them), I think he should get some nice freedom despite the developed climbers in the squad.
Lierse SK
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
7
7
1
8
Croatia14
4
4
7
7
0
6
jandal7
5
7
7
7
0
5
knockout
4
5
6
6
0
7
Minions
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Rigoberto Uran
72
82
74
78
75
81
77
55
55
71
67
62
78
4.100
32
Dimitri Claeys
73
67
83
64
74
68
69
64
67
73
62
63
64
4.100
32
Ruben Zepuntke
72
55
69
65
79
72
64
81
72
65
66
68
65
4.100
26
Maxime Vantomme
72
54
63
63
74
63
77
69
81
76
66
63
63
4.100
33
Yasmani Martinez
69
76
72
73
73
71
76
51
67
75
75
62
73
4.100
32
Niels Albert
74
63
68
56
74
72
70
77
62
66
78
82
56
4.100
33
Chad Haga
70
75
72
76
73
70
72
57
64
67
70
71
77
4.100
31
Damion Drapac
71
51
53
60
70
65
76
64
80
79
66
77
60
4.100
31
Bert-Jan Lindeman
73
55
64
60
72
69
66
76
74
76
64
61
60
4.100
30
Bjorn Selander
71
68
76
63
74
71
70
63
70
76
71
61
63
4.100
31
Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg
70
69
68
78
71
71
69
63
60
76
67
64
78
4.100
30
Leandro Marcos
74
62
73
63
71
65
70
74
65
70
73
64
65
4.100
28
Borislav Ivanov
69
76
74
63
72
75
75
50
58
68
77
69
63
4.100
30
Metkel Kiflay
74
63
68
76
73
70
68
63
66
69
64
72
77
4.100
28
Fulgencio Bru
67
60
77
54
69
65
63
55
66
72
63
68
54
4.100
28
Edwin Avila
70
60
66
60
73
69
75
54
78
77
61
60
60
4.100
30
Chris Barton
65
73
65
75
71
73
73
61
59
66
68
74
75
4.100
31
Jay Major
72
50
66
57
73
70
70
69
75
76
62
66
64
4.83
24
Andzs Flaksis
70
53
65
56
75
70
66
76
61
62
70
72
56
4.100
31
Laureano Rosas
72
59
65
75
72
70
73
51
70
74
55
61
76
4.100
29
Tareq Esmaeli
64
72
70
57
67
75
71
66
62
69
72
74
57
4.100
32
Alvaro Hodeg
68
53
64
66
67
70
61
51
74
74
53
63
69
3.24
23
Is the signing of Claeys the right strategy to offset the stage race points that Uran is expected to lose with the strengthening of that department in the PCT this season?
AbhishekLFC:It definitely helps. With Claeys declining, he’s not the force of the last couple of season but he should definitely do better than what he achieved in the PT. Even with the decline, he’s probably the 3rd or 4th best puncher in the division, and should get steady, if not a truckload of points for his team. Uran has more competition with the likes of Tenorio and Amador in PCT, so getting a better puncher in makes sense.
Croatia14: Dimitri Claeys is a wonderful puncheur - in the terms of a ticket of a beautiful train ride you loved 5 years ago. It’s perfect for decorating your wall with it to keep the beautiful memories. But it won’t help you if you are on the train to enter promotionland when the conductor asks you for your ticket. You’ll show him the ticket and he’ll respond: “Oh, I see you’ve been here before. But where is your ticket to your final destination today?”. And then you realize that your ticket once was able to reach this destination, but now is not able to do that anymore as the time of such ticket has elapsed. You’ll get thrown out of the train and need to buy a new ticket, that may not be as beautiful as the old one, but one that does the job and gets you to promotionland.
jandal: That’s a truly wonderful tale Croatia but I have to disagree on one part - I don’t look at that statline and think anything close to beautiful! I want to spend x words hating on Claeys here because of his awful stats but… he’s not that bad. He’s not going to be beating Kinoshita and Kelderman at the very least. As I think Croatia was saying, is not the missing piece of the puzzle to take Minions from mid-table to megastars, and when you’re making the big-bucks signing of a 32-year-old I think they have to be doing that (or saving you from relegation). Therefore I think Minions did not take the right strategy in their squad’s development with this signing. They are a really old squad (average age of 29.77 and the top half at 31), only Zepuntke aside of the leaders, and I think this should have been a year to go for promotion, and Claeys and Vantomme have the age of the signings you’d expect with that ideology but not the talent. Next year they could give it another try or look at rebuilding to a younger side to develop a base ready for promotion, and not completely worn out by the time they reach the PT.
knockout: Well said, Croatia, well said! Claeys looks like a stopgap solution in a team that can’t afford to “only” have a stopgap solution due to incoming declines next season. Minions looks like a team that improved without actually improving and i can't see them hitting their best predictions.
Minions
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
6
7
7
3
Croatia14
8
4
3
6
4
3
jandal7
8
7
4
7
7
2
knockout
8
5
4
5
3
4
Philips
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Wilco Kelderman
70
71
82
70
80
75
73
62
67
72
77
71
70
4.100
28
Lahcen Saber
75
62
68
64
74
72
78
76
81
79
63
68
70
4.100
29
Florentino Marquez
68
80
71
70
70
78
77
51
61
80
75
64
70
4.100
32
Yoeri Havik
73
56
64
56
74
68
75
76
79
76
60
64
66
4.100
28
Romain Bardet
66
77
74
59
72
70
71
51
52
75
67
71
59
4.100
29
Andrea Palini
69
70
78
66
75
68
69
54
68
74
69
61
66
4.100
30
Olivier Le Gac
70
69
77
60
73
74
71
52
64
69
74
73
60
4.100
26
Wouter Wippert
70
56
67
59
75
70
80
61
78
82
58
67
74
4.100
29
Remco Te Brake
75
56
64
61
74
72
80
66
79
76
65
74
75
4.100
31
Pim Ligthart
72
54
58
78
72
66
68
60
70
74
69
66
78
4.100
31
Fabian Lienhard
72
65
73
66
75
71
68
55
73
75
76
69
70
4.58
25
Rok Korosec
70
67
73
68
72
70
66
62
74
76
69
69
71
4.78
26
Ronan Van Zandbeek
73
58
69
76
71
71
72
64
61
69
75
73
76
4.100
31
Felix Grossschartner
67
72
75
67
72
72
71
50
62
70
69
68
69
4.22
26
Wout Poels
68
74
68
72
78
78
77
61
56
69
68
73
72
4.100
32
Jasper Bovenhuis
73
58
71
59
74
70
72
74
62
68
79
65
59
4.100
28
Kevin Inkelaar
63
73
67
61
72
71
73
56
60
71
66
69
61
1.0
22
Thomas Boudat
69
51
67
61
69
70
69
58
74
74
62
65
74
3.0
25
Ryan Gibbons
71
59
64
66
70
69
64
59
73
74
65
67
70
3.74
25
Piet Allegaert
71
56
63
65
70
71
61
70
64
71
67
65
66
3.65
24
Aurelien Paret-Peintre
64
69
68
66
70
67
70
58
67
67
62
66
64
1.0
23
Jonas Bokeloh
66
61
67
60
66
66
64
62
71
70
61
69
64
1.52
23
Was the large rebuild necessary and successful for Philips after failing to meet expectations in 2018?
knockout: Necessary? I think so. Last season proved that the team lacked quality to get into the top ten and i believe that the team was overrated rather than underperforming. With the signing of Kelderman they have made a fantastic move that should be part of the team foundation for the next five years and that alone makes the rebuild attempt somewhat successful. However the team has a lot of question marks to me. Marquez is 32 and it is questionable how well he adapts to the new game. Saber and Havik are very difficult to plan and are always candidates for huge season-to-season fluctuation. And the depth that made the team strong in their inaugural CT season is still back.
jandal: Yes I agree with knockout’s assessment of it being necessary. I’m still not a fan of selling Navardauskas though, a very cool PCT rider possibly on for an even better time in PCM18. Costa was already disappointing and declined. Henao was going into his last year at his peak (not to say he wouldn’t have had value for a couple more years) and possibly wouldn’t have done as well as last year with that hill stat. Good thing they got a really well rounded climber to replace him. Onto the success now and the shining light is Kelderman - what a perfect signing! A top drawer home leader for PCT and PT, just 28 and on a very reasonable wage. A star for the team to build around for years to come. Saber is very cool and also still with a fair few years left in the tank, and makes for a solid second leader possibly giving Philips a top 20 scorer to go with Kelderman the star. Marquez isn’t who you’d turn to if you were rebuilding your team normally but I don’t blame the manager for the tough transfers situation. Rome wasn’t built in a day and Marquez is a very very cool climber (if not the most well rounded) who should help them greatly this season. Havik is another late 20s home rider to keep around for a while and is a great buy, same for Wippert. Looking at the rest of the team and I’m really liking how the rebuild went domestique-wise, some very cool guys there. And then if you wanted a younger more Dutch start what a way to do it with Inkelaar, absolute steal and great signing for them. As knockout said some question marks over Marquez, but I like where Philips is for 2019 and really like where they are for the future. Average age of 27.4 and even then with a few clear and not super important outliers.
Croatia14: Yes and most likely yes. I’m not quite sure whether it was needed. Surely Costa and Henao were good sales, but also riders like Navardauskas and Saber are great assets that did not need a total rebuild to work well. What Philips did very well was getting in those riders to lead the team in. With Kelderman they got a great leader for a price cheaper than expected when starting the season. The talent class is absolutely astonishing, most of the pieces have perfect wage/reward rations as talents and grown-ups. The question is: Will they work together? I also agree that Marquez is a piece that just doesn’t fit the puzzle, and with 1-2 less useful riders cut that freed up wage + budget could’ve possibly opened the door for another strong leader to push for a PCT title.
AbhishekLFC:Not getting a different climber leader certainly wasn't for lack of trying :P
Philips
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
9
7
5
4
5
Croatia14
3
9
7
2
2
6
jandal7
5
9
6
5
3
4
knockout
5
9
6
3
1
6
Rakuten Pro Cycling
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Tomohiro Kinoshita
73
72
82
66
80
77
73
59
68
77
73
71
66
4.100
28
Chen Shikai
72
81
71
76
74
76
78
55
57
66
59
69
76
4.100
27
Michel Sibilla
71
54
63
58
72
68
65
81
66
64
79
63
58
4.100
31
Saya Kuroeda
74
53
63
67
72
73
75
77
74
78
63
64
71
4.100
24
Kenji Itami
75
63
61
63
71
67
78
64
80
82
50
53
63
4.100
31
Pieter Serry
68
75
78
63
71
70
69
67
62
69
77
66
64
4.100
31
Kazushige Kuboki
73
65
73
75
75
74
71
59
77
77
70
65
78
4.100
30
Chris Froome
67
67
79
64
72
68
67
50
51
70
65
68
64
4.100
34
Tomohiro Hayakawa
73
63
65
50
75
68
76
57
79
79
75
73
50
4.100
27
Shiki Kuroeda
72
63
70
52
76
77
82
75
76
73
67
71
63
4.100
27
Teodoro Costagli
63
79
71
70
70
71
76
52
51
67
76
67
70
4.100
31
Rafael Silva
68
65
75
66
75
70
56
63
74
79
66
64
61
4.100
29
Tomoyuki Iino
68
77
73
68
73
72
73
54
59
67
72
65
68
4.100
30
Wataru Mutsumine
69
69
77
64
73
70
68
58
63
71
64
70
64
4.100
27
Yamato Shirota
68
75
75
58
69
68
73
55
63
78
73
58
58
4.100
25
Yudai Arashiro
80
60
64
62
70
67
72
67
68
74
78
68
66
4.95
24
Sho Hatsuyama
67
76
74
65
70
69
72
54
62
70
62
70
65
4.100
31
Pierre Rolland
69
73
69
76
70
69
74
51
57
66
71
62
76
4.100
33
King Lok Cheung
75
59
67
77
72
74
69
57
63
66
64
72
77
4.100
28
Jingbiao Zhao
72
58
65
66
67
72
70
58
75
79
56
71
76
4.48
24
Jacob Salcone
71
72
70
74
67
70
70
50
52
63
70
64
75
4.100
30
Jiankun Liu
70
62
66
63
73
66
74
63
75
76
64
67
65
3.88
24
Ryoma Nonaka
72
68
70
70
71
73
70
62
68
74
64
70
75
4.100
30
Rei Onodera
71
63
67
73
71
71
67
61
65
68
62
67
70
3.99
24
Yuriy Natarov
62
69
66
64
60
66
71
60
65
65
76
56
63
1.0
23
Pier-Andre Cote
68
60
66
55
70
69
64
60
67
68
65
68
55
1.0
22
Will the Kinoshita training and the improvements of home-grown talents finally allow Rakuten to make that long overdue promotion push?
Croatia14: Does Rakuten really push for promotion? I think they are pushing for promotion, but not that much for division promotion but even more for promoting Japan. In that sense there is nobody doing it better than Rakuten, maybe Valio, despite their sponsor change. It still remains questionable whether Rakuten can promote as they still are blank on good scorers besides Kinoshita, but they will be one of the fun teams to watch again.
AbhishekLFC: They'll be fun as long as Kinoshita doesn't spoil Kelderman's party too much! But the former is the best puncher in the division, no doubts about it. I also like the Kuroedas and think they'll do well. Currently I have them as the best repeating PCT team.
jandal: Yes it is! Kinoshita is back to #1 puncheur, the Kuroeda brothers ready to fire, my boy Kazushige Kuboki with his awesome stats, Sibilla for whatever he’s worth, Shikai less affected by ACC than PCM15 potentially and the normal Meiji supporting cast is a strong line-up. Costagli and Serry scoring decently for themselves and the likes of Shirota, Arashiro and Silva maximising their attacking potential would go a long way to giving them the depth to take them over the line too. I’m really not sure the sale of Choi was what was needed (and I think the manager might agree from what he’s said), though it did help fund Kinoshita training I suppose. If they did still have Choi I’d have put them there for sure. For now I look favourably at them but they will have a tough fight for the top 5 and it could go either way.
knockout: After years of disappointments, this looks like the year where they finally are ready to compete for promotion. Prediction time is hot take time but i’m not willing to make a call either way because it could be very close for them and a lucky day or the lack of it could decide their faith this year.
Rakuten
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
10
6
5
5
5
Croatia14
4
9
3
3
2
7
jandal7
6
10
5
5
5
4
knockout
5
10
5
4
2
7
Sauber Petronas Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Tom Jelte Slagter
68
78
79
66
71
73
74
50
61
71
82
79
66
4.100
30
Suranga Ranaweera
66
78
73
74
75
75
74
52
58
65
57
69
73
4.100
24
Gabriel Chavanne
75
58
64
65
71
76
74
57
76
76
53
67
82
4.100
27
Paolo Scarponi
68
77
75
66
71
72
75
56
62
70
70
83
66
4.100
30
Marcel Aregger
73
64
71
68
72
71
77
62
78
77
65
67
78
4.100
29
Dylan Page
75
57
66
60
72
72
75
66
78
79
62
55
59
4.100
26
Muhamma Afif Ahmad Zamri
70
75
70
75
72
74
75
52
59
69
71
59
75
4.100
27
Gregory Hugentobler
70
68
77
58
70
69
68
69
56
76
77
68
58
4.100
28
Mohamed Harrif Salleh
70
55
59
57
73
65
77
58
80
80
59
68
71
4.100
31
Bjorn Tore Hoem
67
77
72
67
74
69
74
53
58
62
61
72
67
4.100
28
Nawuti Liphongyu
68
75
72
74
73
72
74
65
58
63
68
63
73
4.100
28
Nandra Eko Wahyudi
65
72
76
61
67
69
71
51
58
67
72
65
61
4.100
27
Julien Taramarcaz
73
59
65
70
72
71
69
73
72
73
73
72
71
4.100
32
Muhammad Suhaimi Ghani
71
68
73
65
71
68
68
74
63
61
67
67
64
4.100
24
Benedikt Mundle
79
59
65
55
69
73
67
62
59
69
80
72
55
4.100
28
Andrea Enrico Maccagli
72
63
66
75
70
71
68
61
63
68
69
70
75
4.100
24
Marc Hirschi
70
69
70
65
74
73
70
66
66
68
74
74
65
1.0
21
Yuttana Mano
70
65
70
72
67
68
67
62
60
65
68
72
70
1.0
22
Gregor Muhlberger
66
66
75
59
69
64
67
51
68
74
77
64
61
4.100
25
Riccardo Putti
66
69
70
62
70
70
71
68
58
65
77
70
62
2.0
23
Mushin Misbah
65
68
65
68
69
68
67
62
62
67
69
69
67
1.0
22
Carlo Noia
71
58
59
71
65
67
65
62
61
69
67
65
70
1.0
23
Jamal Hibatullah
67
70
65
62
66
63
65
57
60
64
57
64
56
2.34
22
Akmal Hakim Zakaria
63
58
61
68
72
64
61
61
70
72
60
60
68
1.0
23
Who steps up to support Slagter and keep Sauber safe from relegation?
jandal: I’m really not sure anyone will. Ranaweera isn’t much and is probably behind Faglum Karlsson and Oomen in the U25 fight though since he leads he should be able to punch above his stats. Scarponi isn’t bad on the offensive and downhill but isn’t a chronic overperformer either and lacks some kick or resistance to be a great attacker. Aregger is nice enough with good planning, Page and Salleh too can score some stage points. But none of these guys come remotely close to stepping up and battling relegation. Chavanne looks likely to fight Ranaweera for the #2 spot, he is a good rider to have and him having a huge season is vital. A big problem for them beyond their bleak leader situation looks to be the lack of overperformers or attacking riders - ACC isn’t a god-making stat anymore but still important for those riders and the fact that outside of the leaders they have just 2 1/2 non-sprinters with 70+ ACC is not a good omen. Add to that the fact both of those riders are one-dimensional puncheurs…
AbhishekLFC:At the moment, it looks to be a long hard season ahead for Sauber. While Slagter is a wonderful rider, and I was quite disappointed not to be able to chase him further, and is assured to score them a decent amount of points. But I don’t see much beyond him to be honest.
knockout: Scarponi, Ranaweera and Chavanne are the three guys that can score some points too but none of them will be good enough to make a huge difference in the relegation fight as the one and only key for them is to milk Slagter as much as possible. And with Beltran joining the division it is tough to imagine that he scores enough for the one-leader strategy to work out for them.
Croatia14: Don’t get me wrong, Slagter is a great rider. And even if that’s a position that is very controversial, I think he deserves his wage. Beltran will cost him, but used very well I think Slagter can score 800+ points. Will that be enough? Most likely not. The problem is easy: 400k on Hirschi. If you invest as a new team in PCT in riders that will be worth for a longer time, you mostly have to decide between 1.) talents + experienced leaders + a big transfer or 2.) PCT leaders on good age + cheap assets on transfers. Sauber wanted both: A reasonably young leader and great talents without buying first class PCT material. As romantic as it is and as much as I like the team structure now, this usually shouldn’t be enough for staying up. But even if,with magnificent wage cuts the team will have a stellar base for 2020.
Sauber
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
7
6
0
3
3
Croatia14
3
4
2
1
1
7
jandal7
5
3
4
1
3
7
knockout
4
5
3
1
1
8
Swisslion Cycling Team
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Eduard Alexander Beltran
69
79
81
66
73
72
72
59
65
76
78
74
66
4.100
29
Gerald Ciolek
74
51
65
60
72
68
76
59
82
78
51
60
60
4.100
33
Pello Bilbao
71
67
79
65
77
71
71
51
71
75
67
66
61
4.100
29
Costa Seibeb
71
75
76
66
70
69
71
59
61
73
80
59
66
4.100
27
Luka Pibernik
72
65
76
60
76
68
68
61
68
74
72
67
62
4.100
26
Raymond Kreder
73
65
71
57
75
70
75
66
76
77
67
65
63
4.100
30
Luka Mezgec
71
61
67
60
73
70
76
58
79
77
62
68
70
4.100
31
Stefan Petrovski
70
75
73
66
72
73
67
54
61
68
75
70
66
4.100
28
Gabor Kasa
70
71
72
74
74
70
71
58
63
66
67
65
74
4.100
30
Callum Scotson
69
56
62
73
69
67
68
71
66
74
67
63
75
3.99
23
Miha Poljanec
74
67
69
63
67
67
65
70
67
70
69
73
63
3.2
24
Izidor Penko
69
63
68
72
69
71
67
58
65
69
61
70
72
3.4
23
Jovan Zekavica
70
61
65
62
66
69
66
64
72
74
64
70
69
3.20
28
Daniel Felipe Martinez
63
70
68
67
66
69
67
53
64
68
64
68
66
2.25
23
Matic Groselj
72
58
65
71
70
73
67
67
69
69
69
70
73
2.0
23
Cristian Munoz
63
70
68
65
62
64
64
65
57
69
63
65
62
1.0
23
Ahmet Orken
67
62
66
66
66
65
65
58
70
74
72
71
69
1.88
26
Matija Mestric
69
63
66
63
65
67
65
70
55
65
66
74
67
2.69
22
Dusan Rajovic
67
58
63
59
67
73
59
54
71
75
57
57
59
1.0
22
Andreas Odie Purnama Setiawa
65
62
69
69
69
67
65
57
61
67
74
65
69
1.0
23
Michael Christodoulos
67
63
65
69
68
64
63
53
53
64
70
64
70
1.0
22
Will Swisslion have the depth of scoring required to keep their heads above water in the business end of the season?
jandal: I really want to say yes but it’s a no from me. Or at least in so far as if they do survive it won’t be due to depth of scoring. The main trio is a solid one. Whilst Ciolek isn’t the toughest sprinter when he does make it to the finish he’s very good. Beltran doesn’t have the best backups but obviously 79/81 MO/HI is a very dangerous combination to make him a favourite for the MO/HI tours. Planned well and with luck on his side he could possibly drag them halfway to safety. Bilbao is a nice puncher, on the surface nothing special but has always outperformed his 79HI to get really good rankings spot. With PCM18 if they get the split of him and Beltran right in terms of MO influenced classics, he could try do it again. I’ll make the analogy of Kwiatkowski, Vantomme and Bilbao himself there. They got 1831 points altogether last season - 338 away from safety (assuming they replace a relegating team and have to beat Carlsberg, not become a new team and have to beat… Netia? :P). Obviously they won’t do the same as those riders and the bar could potentially be higher for survival this season. So who can get the extra points? Mezgec could grab 100+ with good planning. Seibeb and Kreder maybe grab that combined again, maybe lower and maybe higher, and then breakaways and minor points elsewhere. Not looking fantastic but by no means out of the picture. It looks to be a tough season for the rest of the squad and I think they’ll be relying on their leaders over performing rather than any kind of depth.
Croatia14: I love the comparison to Kwiatek, Vantomme and Bilbao. There is only one difference: Beltran is considerably better. He is a good rider, and with good planning should be Top 5 individual. The question can be whether Bilbao can do well on a complimentary racing calendar, as I don’t think he’ll bring in the points he brought last year. A shame that Zhupa is gone, otherwise I would’ve been very confident, now it’s on the edge between making it or not making it. Beltran itself could, however, save the team, and if they make it it’s not because of the supporting cast but of the brilliance of Beltran.
knockout: Depth is a huge issue for Swisslion. Beltran is a fantastic rider but the depth is a big issue for Swisslion. Not having depth is one issue but for Swisslion it is even worse because they have even less than no depth. The number of low level talents will need race days so the race day squads will look terrible past the top 3 (at most) riders and that way they will have much less flukey results from breaks than other teams. Comparing the team to Netia does them a bit of a favor because even with Netias talents their depth core of talents looked a lot more helpful in the “Now” than it does for Swisslion. I struggle to see a way for them to stay in even if i do like the strategy of using leaders like Ciolek or Beltran to keep a talent squad alive.
Swisslion
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
8
8
0
2
3
Croatia14
2
7
5
0
0
5
jandal7
3
7
6
1
1
7
knockout
4
6
5
0
0
6
Team Europcar
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Ivano Lo Cicero
72
56
64
56
71
63
79
69
84
78
54
60
75
4.100
31
Lilian Calmejane
74
71
77
67
73
76
74
60
72
76
78
70
70
4.100
27
David De la Cruz
69
78
75
74
72
76
75
56
60
73
65
73
74
4.100
30
Sascha Modolo
74
61
73
58
75
72
81
68
78
81
62
65
70
4.100
32
Damiano Caruso
68
69
78
57
76
71
65
54
70
77
75
77
57
4.100
32
Tommy Zaini
66
66
80
61
74
65
66
52
65
70
72
81
61
4.100
31
Michael Matthews
76
59
65
64
72
67
73
66
79
79
65
64
64
4.100
29
Heiner Rodrigo Parra Bustamente
69
77
74
67
73
74
77
51
51
71
75
65
66
4.100
28
Jaime Suaza
65
79
64
72
64
75
65
50
59
78
56
63
72
4.100
33
Jon Aberasturi
74
59
64
60
73
71
76
57
79
78
60
57
75
4.100
30
Sebastian Henao
65
76
76
64
71
73
71
53
63
70
68
67
64
4.100
26
Darwin Atapuma
66
78
73
62
71
72
68
52
60
73
70
70
62
4.100
31
Rasmus Sterobo
70
71
63
78
74
69
69
52
56
73
57
77
78
4.100
28
Saulo Lay
73
56
60
56
68
66
77
61
79
81
61
77
70
4.100
31
Adrian Honkisz
67
68
76
62
74
71
70
53
63
69
64
69
62
4.100
31
Kamil Zielinski
70
70
74
60
71
67
70
64
70
74
70
68
61
4.100
31
Martin Mahdar
70
67
73
65
73
72
72
53
72
72
75
63
67
4.100
30
Patrik Tybor
73
67
72
63
73
68
69
54
72
73
73
66
65
4.100
32
Marek Canecky
65
73
71
65
72
70
70
50
66
69
69
64
65
4.100
31
Robert Gavenda
70
59
68
62
72
67
64
72
61
59
70
76
61
4.100
31
Can Team Europcar's ‘Suicide Squad’ of riders who have relegated before redeem themselves?
jandal: For the record before we answer: Lo Cicero at Valio, Caruso at Euskaltel, DLC at Nordstrom and Ticos, Matthews with this very team, Atapuma with Aeropostal, Honkisz with Netia in the last 3 years.
AbhishekLFC: This is one case where I think the change of game can have a huge impact, in my opinion. PCM 15 didn’t really favour a lot of the riders mentioned above by Jandal, but the new game could well change that. I think they'll all do better than they did when getting relegated. Just not sure they'll do enough to stay away from the relegation fight throughout the season.
Croatia14: I don’t necessarily see those as a key for a successful season. Sure, Lo Cicero is the standout rider of the team. But my pick on the top scorer of the team is Sascha Modolo, who benefits a lot from the division changes and the lack of top class punchy sprinters. For Lo Cicero my concern is that there is nobody to lead him out besides Aberasturi. I think Matthews may hurt him with his flat/acc combo, and Modolo and Lay don’t make any sense as leadouts at all. For me the team is lacking the good 3rd man in the leadout for Lo Cicero to turn him into a great scorer, otherwise I’d be confident in their success. However, De la Cruz and Caruso are two riders that are very well proven and despite the relegation of their teams have proven to be strong riders in PCT. While I hate the Zaini fit and would’ve preferred Caruso alone, I also think that Calmejane is the real star of the Europcar hills outfit and will be great for them. So parts of the team, Modolo, Calmejane, Caruso and De la Cruz is a great outlook, but the real leaders are lacking, so this is one of those spaceship starts where you don’t know whether it will land on the moon or explode halfway through leaving the atmosphere.
jandal: I’m still not convinced by the team structure at Europcar, but they have thrown a lot of riders together and are hoping they can come together to cobble together the points needed to survive, plus a hopeful big scorer in Lo Cicero. As the tagline for that movie put it, they really are the World’s Worst Heroes.
Caruso is a great puncheur and hopefully can ignore his leader: Zaini was my call for rider to remove from a team and I stand by that, I really hope Calmejane and Caruso don’t get too hurt by him. As Croatia said and I have said in other sections, Calmejane is really amazing and Europcar will be hoping he ignores the fact they have loads of other puncheurs and sprinters and attacks all the time.. Croatia’s pick on Modolo is good and he brings some Strava magic, not sure if there’s enough opportunities on the calendar for him to step up and be an absolute star for them but what a neat rider he is, potential to be a thorn in my side that’s for sure! Hopefully he’s separated from Lo Cicero, who surely has the most to prove here - a make or break season for him and potentially late-career-defining for how we remember his last few years - is he the dominant Il Toro of Valio glory days or the man who relegated two teams and had to have his ass saved by Coppel the other time? De La Cruz will have a little less pressure on him this year than at Nordstrom and hopefully will be a solid scorer too. Then there’s a lot of riders cobbled together (ironically without any cobblers) who will try to lurk from position and points of 100-200 to piece together scraps of scoring to build a total. It’s like a cricket innings: you can build a solid total with a few 70s and a bunch of scores of 20-40, but it would’ve been much easier if you had a couple of centurions!
knockout:I’d assume that the team is strong enough to stay up. Of course we have the question marks behind rider like Lo Cicero and Zaini but the rest of the team looks good enough to step in with enough points. The team has several riders that look ready to overperform like Calmekane, De la Cruz or Modolo and not carrying any talents should be planning heaven because the team looks top-to-bottom useful. I also like the sprinter combo since the team should be able to cover every sprinter stage all year long fairly well.
Was it time to ditch Pluchkin and build a real team?
AbhishekLFC:In a word, yes. The guy's taking up too much resources and doesn't have enough racedays to make it worthwhile. Sure, he'll probably win everything he enters once again, but it won't be as straightforward as last season with the competition this time in PCT climbing. With Padun getting better and the money spent on training, they could've easily replaced Pluchkin to get in top level leaders in two categories. Also spare a thought for the Moldovan, who should've been fighting for GT wins in his last two seasons but is stuck just winning the PCT crown :p
Croatia14: In another word: No. Pluchkin alone can ensure that a team stays in PCT and gives the manager pretty much any freedom he needs. Popo4ever takes the path of regional developments, which is great to see with Prevar and Padun. If you’d cut 6 50k riders and get a real sprint leader and some sort of cobbles rider for the mandatory ones things look different. Pluchkin is still strong enough to carry a PCT team to promotion, and will be strong enough next year as well. It all depends on the set-up, which Popo4ever did transition for this year by developing Padun and Zouzou, training Prevar and bringing in some value riders like Laas or Tanovitchii. I think they’re ready to push for promotion in 2020 for one last hurray with Pluchkin, and then it’s time to regroup with big time PT budget.
jandal: In another word: Maybe. I see both arguments here, it could have been done this year for sure, it could have been done next year to phase in a maxed Padun set for a huge season, it could have been done the year after following a promotion as Croatia said, and it could also be done when he retires as I think if you promote with him you may as well keep him when he’s 83MO!
knockout: I’d say yes. Without a chance to promote a deal similar to the one T-Mobile got for Taaramae would be the way to go. Trading him for two leaders with a similar combined cap hit that will be good enough to save them now too but that will also be valuable in three years. But when such an offer isn't there it is no problem to delay the move to another year. While Pluchkin obviously loses a bit of value with every year, Padun will be ready next year to step up a bit at least which will make the turnaround easier.
AbhishekLFC: We should’ve continued saying words!
Popo4Ever
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
10
7
4
0
4
2
Croatia14
10
4
2
0
2
1
jandal7
10
6
3
1
4
3
knockout
10
5
2
0
2
4
Team UBS
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Andrei Amador
69
83
74
77
76
73
77
50
66
71
70
70
76
4.100
33
Lukas Spengler
74
58
64
62
72
73
76
82
61
70
67
63
65
4.100
25
Patrick Schelling
71
80
75
72
75
76
73
54
58
70
67
72
71
4.100
29
Sebastien Reichenbach
71
73
79
67
76
69
73
57
63
69
73
67
67
4.100
30
Theo Reinhardt
71
57
67
67
73
66
78
62
79
84
51
62
67
4.100
29
Silvan Dillier
70
51
64
80
74
77
67
68
61
62
74
63
79
4.100
29
Tom Bohli
74
63
68
70
79
75
65
77
74
68
66
68
73
4.100
25
Sebastien Ivars
67
75
69
77
70
74
74
50
61
65
64
62
77
4.100
32
Jose Goncalves
70
73
71
78
76
72
74
53
57
65
59
74
66
4.100
30
Jorge Abreu
73
73
73
75
75
71
73
54
52
73
79
67
75
4.100
29
Thery Schir
67
77
72
72
73
72
74
50
59
65
69
68
72
4.100
26
Artur Grigrian
68
76
71
72
72
68
71
50
56
73
62
56
72
4.100
30
Arnaud Grand
72
58
65
63
74
70
68
77
65
65
64
60
67
4.100
29
Matteo Badilatti
67
76
75
65
67
72
71
55
60
65
73
62
65
4.100
27
Daniil Fominykh
74
56
67
77
74
71
68
54
64
69
61
63
76
4.100
28
Jonathan Fumeaux
72
66
76
65
74
70
72
52
62
70
65
71
65
4.100
31
Basilio Ramos Ticona
69
70
74
75
71
71
67
50
54
69
74
55
71
4.100
30
Kevin Fouquet
74
58
67
65
74
71
68
75
68
64
76
65
65
4.100
31
Dominik Fuchs
68
75
72
68
75
71
73
55
58
64
67
65
67
4.100
29
Matthias Frank
69
75
73
70
70
66
63
56
60
66
72
69
70
4.100
33
Michael Schär
73
59
68
75
73
75
72
70
61
68
61
61
75
4.100
33
Patrick Müller
68
63
75
62
71
69
68
68
64
67
71
61
62
3.26
23
Martin Schäppi
68
64
66
71
70
69
67
71
66
67
69
59
71
3.61
23
Were UBS right to rest on their laurels this transfers or will they be punished with non-promotion?
Croatia14: I am not sure about this. I think UBS came in with one of the strongest teams. Usually I’m not a fan of resting the laurels, but UBS is such an experienced deep team that now has a fully developed Spengler to add to their promotion core. Amador is good enough to still be a Top 5 stage racer in PCT, and as Reichenbach, Reinhardt, Schelling and the TTT lineup are all much better suited to a PCT approach I think it was a fair choice this time. The team is experienced to gain promotion in this type of set-up, so I think they will deliver. Only point of criticism is that Dillier has to do the cobbles to maximise the points of the Spengler supporting cast which is not ideal, so a ninth useful cobbler would’ve made sense. Then again though, Abreu is a perfect rider to fuel a supporting cast with, as he can do wonders in depth at stage racing and will have a surprisingly well season. So this one time I agree that staying quiet was not the wrong decision.
jandal: I think they could have done a bit more to secure their promotion and not just expecting an instant promotion with no effort, but they do still have a very solid shot at it. The TTT train looks as good as last time they were here, Amador not so much but still pretty freaking good, Schelling looks the same, Spengler looks a lot better, Reinhart and Reichenbach are… there. The TTT and mountain depth looks great, Spengler has a nice support crew, especially Bohli who should score decently himself. Putting him or either of the other two in early moves would make for good positions for UBS. Realistically I think they came down with enough about them to do it, they made a couple of lovely domestique moves, but they could have put in a little more effort and made promotion a bit easier for sure!
knockout: I struggle to see how strong Spengler will be this year which is the key to the situation analysis of UBS imo. Amador will be awesome this season with incredible support while especially Schelling and Reichenbach look good too with lots of depth points from the boys in behind. If Spengler turns out to be a top 3 cobbler this year then a quiet transfer season doesn't hurt them and they’ll promote. But I’m not too sure about that and thus, would have preferred a more aggressive strategy to further improve their situation. Amador is 33 so the time for promotion has to be now!
jandal: Yeah Spengler is a hard one to read, my eyes kind of gloss over him when viewing the cobbles line-ups because he’s a bit meh… but 82COB doesn’t lie and he should be solid at worst and top 3 at best.
Team UBS
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
5
4
7
9
6
Croatia14
8
2
1
7
9
4
jandal7
9
4
4
7
9
3
knockout
9
5
2
6
8
4
Valio – Viking Genetics
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Andrew Talansky
71
79
77
72
75
76
77
56
59
69
63
66
72
4.100
31
Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy
71
77
74
77
75
75
77
52
51
75
80
67
77
4.100
32
Cyril Gautier
72
68
80
64
76
72
71
60
68
77
77
64
64
4.100
32
Marcel Kittel
75
55
64
81
74
70
68
57
60
73
72
64
81
4.100
31
Matti Manninen
74
65
66
69
71
75
77
58
80
80
70
71
76
4.100
27
Sameera Chatarunga
72
56
67
67
79
72
68
77
70
68
80
56
67
4.100
27
Olli Kulppi
73
59
67
61
73
69
69
77
65
70
63
70
60
4.100
28
Samuel Pokälä
70
64
71
77
75
73
73
64
60
65
62
64
76
4.100
29
Joni Kanerva
68
63
76
70
73
68
69
55
63
74
73
68
70
4.19
24
Sachin Dulanjana
67
74
72
74
75
71
77
63
62
61
60
75
75
4.100
24
Ingvar Omarsson
70
71
74
73
71
67
72
65
68
72
68
73
72
4.100
30
Joonas Henttala
66
74
68
73
73
72
72
50
60
67
63
71
73
4.100
28
Sakari Lehtinen
67
75
73
65
72
69
70
60
65
67
67
70
60
4.100
26
Sasu Helme
68
72
72
67
69
70
72
62
60
75
72
66
67
3.15
23
Gokhan Hasta
65
76
70
69
68
73
75
50
50
60
65
62
69
4.100
29
Trond Larsen
73
54
67
74
72
70
67
57
74
73
68
66
75
4.100
29
Martins Blums
71
72
72
67
69
71
70
63
64
66
68
77
70
3.15
24
Kari Brynjolfsson
71
61
68
70
70
65
61
73
66
68
67
69
69
4.100
31
Jaako Hänninen
69
68
70
69
69
70
72
55
63
69
68
67
69
1.0
22
Risto Aaltio
77
61
68
69
66
71
71
63
61
61
69
63
70
4.100
31
Michael Vanderaerden
72
54
61
58
71
65
78
63
79
75
56
59
58
4.100
32
Awet Gebremedhin
69
75
72
64
72
73
74
50
55
73
76
66
64
4.63
27
Paavo Paajanen
69
71
75
65
70
68
65
64
67
69
67
66
64
4.100
30
Aleksi Hänninen
68
61
64
68
65
67
66
56
69
69
65
58
76
3.18
23
Sauli Pietikäinen
67
61
68
68
68
69
68
58
59
66
68
66
68
1.0
23
Oskari Vainionpää
70
58
63
61
70
71
69
67
62
69
76
65
58
2.30
24
Jesper Lindahl
68
58
67
66
68
69
68
66
62
64
65
67
66
1.0
22
Have Valio fallen into a similar trap by returning to a similar team structure as in their ill-fated 2017 season?
Croatia14: I am not sure about this. I don’t really like their set-up. Their biggest captain may be Gautier, who was a monster in PCM 15 but I’m not sure about his strength in the 18 variant. But then, I do think that Talansky (on high wage though) and the late swap of König for Nepom (to not have similar leader types) were very good choices. Both, if planned very well and perhaps even atypically, have the potential to keep the team in the division. Also Valios trump is that they have solid options for every type of race with leaders, so one-day races will never bust for the team. If they do plan well, then the structure is good enough to avoid the trap. But there are plenty of traps all over the meadows where the cattle wanna feed themselves with points.
jandal: Croatia I do love your metaphors! The similarities are there to the 2017 Valio which ever so sadly went down: A sprinter, an all-around 79MO stage racer, a TTist, Cyril Gautier, and Finns. They have added another stage racer, downgraded their sprinter (no knock to Manninen who I really like!), added some decent but not great cobblers, and upgraded their TTist slightly to give them a fighting shot, and I think they have enough about them, coupled with the experience of Atlantius, to survive, but no point pretending it won’t be in a relegation dogfight in all likelihood. Planning on the stage races, as Croatia said, is important whilst for a lot of the others it looks easier. Gautier has a shot to fight for top 5s without Beltran which could be huge, but perhaps the training of Jensen and Borges will hurt him here late on as he has to battle to be the best 80 puncheur before he sets his sights on the more unbalanced 81+ guys! I like Manninen and his RES and he should do well for them too. Nepom and Talansky are both very nice, and Kittel too. There’s a lot of positives, and as Croatia pointed out they should be scoring every day which is a big positive when putting together a survival total. I think that could be a real edge on the other teams.
knockout: I love Valio as a team which makes harsh critic difficult but i don’t really think they had a good transfer season. They had a fantastic base following the promotion and looked well suited to go all in for one of their preferred free agents and do minor moves behind him. I don’t see a winner in this team and after their CT season I’m not too convinced that either sprints or cobbles will really bring them the points they would hope for. A lot of pressure is on Nepom, Gautier and Talansky and it will be once again a long fight.
Valio
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
5
5
6
3
Croatia14
4
4
3
2
7
4
jandal7
5
6
5
3
7
5
knockout
5
5
3
2
7
5
Volvo acc. By Spotify
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Jonas Ahlstrand
74
60
67
60
74
73
79
67
83
82
59
64
72
4.100
29
Joeri Stallaert
77
60
67
58
76
68
80
81
79
76
67
66
58
4.100
28
Kristian Haugaard Jensen
71
70
80
67
77
73
71
55
66
76
81
73
70
4.100
28
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
71
78
73
73
78
75
76
56
60
68
66
74
79
4.100
25
Tobias Ludvigsson
68
76
72
76
75
72
73
56
62
71
65
72
75
4.100
28
Jurgen Roelandts
73
59
69
66
72
71
77
68
79
77
67
63
66
4.100
34
Carl Fredrik Hagen
68
74
75
65
74
72
71
65
71
72
74
72
64
4.100
28
Phan Age Haugard
72
57
60
79
74
77
70
56
57
67
73
65
79
4.100
27
Victor Campenaerts
71
54
69
78
71
73
72
62
53
65
78
56
78
4.100
28
Winner Anacona
69
79
74
66
75
72
74
50
53
61
53
57
66
4.100
31
Fredrik Ludvigsson
67
63
76
69
74
70
69
53
67
76
78
68
69
4.100
25
Laurens Sweeck
73
62
68
68
71
72
62
76
70
71
67
75
71
4.100
26
Havard Blikra
69
75
75
65
72
70
73
52
62
72
69
63
65
4.100
28
Jan Dieteren
67
70
77
58
75
70
68
51
63
66
80
73
58
4.100
26
Barry Markus
73
53
67
57
74
68
78
66
77
78
63
60
57
4.100
28
Remco Broers
76
54
60
63
76
71
69
75
65
69
66
76
63
4.100
31
Johim Ariesen
74
57
61
60
71
70
75
70
76
76
62
78
64
4.100
31
Dayer Quintana
69
76
71
70
73
72
76
50
61
63
67
64
70
4.100
27
Rasmus Tiller
70
63
68
67
71
71
68
73
70
72
68
69
69
3.0
23
Kristoffer Halvorsen
72
57
63
63
70
69
72
67
75
76
70
60
68
3.1
23
Lucas Eriksson
70
65
73
60
73
72
73
65
63
72
72
70
60
3.16
23
Sten Stenersen
76
53
66
75
73
72
72
60
62
69
75
63
75
4.100
31
Harry Tanfield
69
58
61
74
70
70
67
64
66
72
73
64
74
3.32
25
Ivan Sosa
65
69
70
66
72
75
73
60
59
67
67
65
64
1.0
22
Martijn Budding
69
66
69
59
68
68
72
68
69
71
69
66
63
2.0
24
Can Volvo’s 1-2 punch with Stallaert and Ahlstrand take them straight back to the PT?
AbhishekLFC:I want to say yes, but is there really enough points in sprints and cobbles to get them up? While the Jensen training should help, that is a huge bet to put on an untested entity and push for promotion with those three leaders. Maybe I’m clutching at straws here, but it might not be as easy for them as a lot of us thought at the start of transfers.
Croatia14: There is one thing concerning this that makes me very confident about Volvo: Ahlstrands train is perfect, which is a rare site with the PCT set-ups I took a look on. The duo doesn’t have to hide from anybody in the PTHC, which is very important as big time points can be scored there. I would’ve liked more support for Stallaert on the cobbles, as he might be isolated very quickly and I don’t see that many climbing helpers needed. But even if those in a perfect scoring world places for helpers are filled with sweet wage/potential talents, I think it should be the team beat for the title and definitely a promotion lock.
knockout: Short and lazy answer: Yes. Stallaert and Ahlstrand are fantastic and they have good depth and good value riders all over the squad. Promotion looks secure and while no team is really above any other, they look like they can aim for the title.
jandal: Two PT quality leaders looking to take the PCT by storm, who does that remind you of? Grieg-Eftel 2017 and although Croatia might not want reminding, they did win the title that year. So I can only imagine they win the division followed by a Slovenian team adamant they will relegate, so get ready for promotion Swisslion! In all seriousness that formula can work again (though EBH and Wisni were perhaps more guaranteed top scorers), and with Jensen looking good with his training to fight for hilly top 5s, Faglum competing for white jerseys, Anacona and Haugard chipping in, Hagen in the breaks, some solid depth and a fantastic leadout for Ahlstrand as Croatia mentioned they do look like one of the main title fighters though that race is so hard to call. Croatia makes a great point about PTHC points too.
Volvo
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
6
9
9
6
7
Croatia14
2
5
9
9
4
3
jandal7
4
6
9
8
6
3
knockout
4
6
9
9
4
5
Xero Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Luke Rowe
78
55
66
65
76
70
79
75
79
80
75
71
74
4.100
29
Hugo Houle
78
66
75
69
76
71
79
65
79
78
70
69
69
4.100
29
George Bennett
67
80
76
65
75
74
79
58
65
73
55
63
65
4.100
28
Mekseb Debesay
75
67
74
72
75
79
70
77
69
78
73
74
74
4.100
28
Kristian Dyrnes
68
72
78
61
73
73
70
54
65
77
78
74
66
4.100
27
Stanislau Bazhkou
71
69
75
76
73
75
71
53
63
64
67
61
76
4.100
28
Tsgabu Gebremaryam Grmay
67
77
74
65
71
73
76
58
61
71
58
74
65
4.100
28
Joseph Areruya
71
74
74
64
74
76
75
53
68
72
70
59
64
3.30
23
Jaco Venter
70
74
77
60
72
74
71
50
58
66
70
67
60
4.100
32
Mikiel Habtom
75
53
61
64
75
75
80
68
77
78
60
63
67
4.100
28
Shaun Nick Bester
72
68
72
73
74
71
70
74
71
71
71
69
72
4.100
28
Morne Van Niekerk
74
61
66
76
72
73
71
64
61
67
71
64
75
4.66
24
Tom Davison
72
69
73
69
70
70
69
60
65
69
71
70
73
4.100
29
Dylan Kennett
72
58
64
69
72
73
73
62
75
74
67
68
75
3.99
25
Carl Ngamoki-Cameron
71
63
67
65
73
72
67
71
71
72
68
73
66
4.100
31
Arvid de Kleijn
69
59
71
60
68
69
74
66
73
72
61
63
67
3.0
25
Sergio Higuita
68
69
69
64
73
74
72
60
66
68
65
63
61
1.0
22
Miguel Florez
66
69
68
67
65
69
70
55
63
67
66
68
66
1.0
23
Mingrun Chen
68
69
68
62
70
72
72
56
65
66
55
62
62
1.0
23
Nils Schomber
70
54
57
70
63
72
65
50
69
69
63
64
77
3.99
25
Than Tung Huynh
65
59
66
65
67
71
57
60
70
69
74
67
68
2.92
23
Akramjon Sunnatov
63
67
66
64
63
66
65
54
52
69
61
61
64
1.0
23
Xero can only shine via hybrid races and back-up stats, but how bright can they light up the division?
AbhishekLFC: I don't know about ‘only’, but they'll depend heavily on the hybrid races for their points-scoring for sure. Having overperformed almost every prediction last season, I wouldn't put it past them to pull out another such surprise. A lot will depend on how Houle and improved Debesay goes. Houle is a great signing for all hard flat races and can be expected to score a lot more than you'd expect at the first look. Bazhkou is another wildcard rider who was exceptional last season and should be on course for more of the same this time. I would say they're likely to produce similarly to last season.
jandal: As Croatia said earlier in the preview the calendar isn’t as suited to this team as previous years and the perception of Houle as a top PCT scorer probably won’t come true. Really I think as with last year their team set-up and hybrid leaders will see them have some underperformances and some overperformances and, as Abhishek said, finish in a similar position in the table too.
Croatia14: Xero is the most difficult team to assess in the whole PCT. And that is because they are in between of everything. I love those types of set-ups a lot, and those can go very far as we’ve seen in the past. But those can also fall if not carefully planned. As I know the manager quite well, I know planning may be very deeply thought through. That is why I trust the squad to become a top 10 team. I do not like 3-5 places in the squad, I think if de Kleijn, Davison, Ngamoki, Schomber and Grmay would’ve been replaced by some versatile TT hybrids, 1-2 flat/hill/sprint hybrids to help Houle and a stage racing leader the team would be ready for promotion. But as said, the variance will be high due to the manner of the team, which is why only time can tell where the team with the most beautiful shirts in the pack will end up. From promotion to a fight against relegation everything is possible here.
jandal: I swear, any platform for you guys to hate on Schomber...
knockout: I love the Xero set-up. So many cool riders everywhere. But race planning can be a bitch for a team like Xero. They might want to avoid the races where the top specialists of the division race but they will also be great in those in-between races that the conglomerate managers love. I wouldn't say that they can only score in hybrid races though. Bennett, Dyrnes and partly Debesay are fairly strong specialists themselves and for Houle it is just as much picking races with less strong sprinters as picking so called hybrid races. But that Schmber guy looks terrible…
That was the 2018 Conglomerate preview. We hope you enjoyed the read. Do you agree with our opinions or are we completely missevaluating everything? Please share your thoughts with us!
Amazing work as always guys. Such a fun read. Admittedly, I'm commenting having not read other team's overviews yet.
With all due respect to Croatia, it's easy to criticize spending big money on second tier talents in hindsight, but I did so because those were the only options left. My plan for the first 8 days of transfers was to get a more prominent leader, and every effort fell through for one reason or another. It was either splurge on talents or come out with nothing. It's not like I didn't try to build on my core. I tried incessantly into the final hours. I physically wasn't able to. Thanks to Knockout for addressing that, although again, I'm not sure how I could have used the Fabbro money more effectively. It was either that, or a Warbasse TT training, which just didn't seem as beneficial to me. Fabbro at least will give U25 points for two years. The Warbasse overpay obviously put me in that position, but that was another desperation move, and I'm counting on his points if I have any chance to survive.
I definitely understand the Ranneries criticism, and frankly if it wasn't for sentimental/roleplay reasons he wouldn't have a contract. But I have tried to plan him sparingly and really use him as a throwaway lead sprinter in the few races App and AKA aren't in, rather than as a consistent leadout. Hopefully then he won't be a detriment.
You're absolutely right that I will be in the relegation fight and probably end up on the worse half of it. I'm definitely disappointed, as this was not my plan coming into the transfer season. However, I don't really hold it against myself to be honest. I'm not sure what I could have done better considering the market conditions, with so few sellers and so many deals being backed out of. I can only hope I survive, and that next year is better.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Thanks bbl. I looked the Fabbro fee up again and it is a bit lower than i had in mind. Thought it would be 700k ish which would just be too much (it was 501k + Gaetan Pons for those that don't remember either). Juul-Jensen to 79HI would have cost 1M and then I'd have assumed that you could have gotten there by selling some lower tier talent like Pons, Kvist, etc to get that cash and I'd have preferred that over buying Fabbro. With it "only" being 501k cash the situation might have looked a bit different depending on how much cash you had left at the end.
I also think you would have gotten slightly better short-term value if you had e.g. bought Moazemi who was on the market at the very end of the transfers instead of Fabbro. Zhupa another name who was definitely on the market and definitely inside your budget and who could have helped Vanspeybrouck a lot this season so would probably helped more to avoid relegation. Not 100% sure how your cap situation looked but with the large squad you have you surely had a bit room to fit those guys in.
Should you manage to avoid relegation then the Fabbro deal ends up being okay for you. His value once maxed will be vastly improved and he ends up a nice rider. Had you paid the same fee next year, the deal would have looked more okay. It's just that he shouldnt really help you in the fight against relegation this year that in my opinion didnt justify the overpay for a talent.
You're right to not hold this against yourself since every promoted manager had the same problems and I have experienced the very same troubles myself too. It was very difficult to get leaders without giving up another leader and we've talked long enough during transfers to understand your position.
I'd just like to point out the Yates for Altur deal sent 725k my way (not the other way around) which provided the funds needed for the training. Not sure if some of you thought it was the other way around and I paid out. Either way, an interesting discussion regardless. Altur will be missed, but he is in good hands with TMM and back in the Pro Tour where he belongs.
Also, worth mentioning, Yates affordable wage played a big factor in the swap. I needed to clear cap space with Tenorio's hefty contract.
I'd just like to point out the Yates for Altur deal sent 725k my way (not the other way around) which provided the funds needed for the training. Not sure if some of you thought it was the other way around and I paid out. Either way, an interesting discussion regardless. Altur will be missed, but he is in good hands with TMM and back in the Pro Tour where he belongs.
Also, worth mentioning, Yates affordable wage played a big factor in the swap. I needed to clear cap space with Tenorio's hefty contract.
Yeah I definitely misremembered that
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Has indeed been the plan to have another very quiet season this year to transition into a team around Padun in 2020 and beyond. I was in a situation where my point scoring riders were all on the edge of decline, and I chose to keep Pluchkin to play things safe, which turned out to be somewhat needed with the not really great offers that I got when I offered him for sale.
In the end I did end up losing Nepomnyachsniy, however Tanovitchii and Laas would seem to be very solid replacements to me, and with Andriafenomananiana returning, we should have plenty of scorers to ensure not relegating.
Then with my talents put in the mix, Riabushenko, Budyak, Rikunov, Pronskiy and Kanepejs there is plenty of more than solid domestiques coming through our own academy in the next few seasons, where Main is just a stagiare who will likely join the academy for real next year.
And then next year anything can happen. Could easily keep Pluchkin again, and ditch some riders like Polivoda, Kononenko, Young, Psczcolarski and others, and get in a proper sprinter, or sell Pluchkin and do a full rebuild around Padun and a second and even third leader.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
Awesome work guys, fun to read!
I do still have a bit left to read when it comes to team previews beside my own team...
Regarding our bright future I guess I will have to talk with ember so Ivan Sosa will stay with us even after this year when he is on loan to us
You put some big pressure on my team putting team 1-1-1-2, We are ofc hoping to fight for promotion but right up there fighting for the crown will be a tough task to acheice for sure.
WOW, this must have taken a lot of time to do.
Haven't got the time to read it all yet, but love the interesting analyse of what the new system might do to our game. Brilliant and I agree to most, as mentioned also the fact that we can have more "unusual" profiles and it will still by good, might even allow narrow road in the future, been tested and it works well to get some occasional splits without haven the crucial impact from PCM15.
There is still a lot of unexplained random results (form of the day?) but with no crash we need some of that.
Of course also read my own team - glad you left just a tiny hope in me
This one gets better and more comprehensive every year, glad that it's back yet again, I almost feel bad that I promoted because it means my team isn't getting any of this quality analysis for once
Will give this a better read later but fantastic job as usual you guys.
