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Tour de France Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 18-12-2016 09:17
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Team Manager
Posts: 22246
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The race won`t start before the bets end but you can already discuss the startlist/predictions etc.
Also if you haven`t seen yet, the pre-TdF rankings are out as well: https://pcmdaily.c...st_1218335
The route in short:
9 Flat
3 Hill
6 Mountain
3 TT (6km, 44km ITT, 13km TTT)
In long: Check here in the presentation thread: https://pcmdaily.c...d_id=42896
| Year | 1. | 2. | 3. | | 2015 |  Pluchkin |  Taaramae |  Amador | | 2014 |  A.Schleck | Pluchkin |  Spilak | | 2013 |  Madrazo |  Cunego | A.Schleck | | 2012 | Cunego | Madrazo | Pluchkin | | 2011 | Spilak |  Dekker |  Popovych | | 2010 |  Fothen |  Devolder | Spilak | | 2009 | Devolder | F.Schleck |  Gadret | | 2008 | F.Schleck | Di Luca | Valverde | | 2007 | Moreau |  Vinokourov |  Leipheimer |
The first information is obvious already but reigning champion Pluchkin is not here as he was already taking part in both Giro and Vuelta! And also last years 3rd can`t be here as Amador went downwards into the PCT with his team.
If you now thing the startlist will be shit, it`s also wrong! It`s definitely not and we still have 2 former winners participating in  Spilak and  Schleck.
Then also last years runner up Taaramäe is yet again here.
But let`s keep it team for team.
Team I-Gen Festina comes here with huge ambitions. They are brave enough to battle Schleck, who always looks superior in direct duels of the very best. But they send their A-Squad here and have given up on the Giro instead as Spilak gets the support of Lecuisinier, himself finishing 4th in the Vuelta most recently! Also Novak and Vasyliv will be of great support while the remaining riders are here for the TTT as the average of 78 is very impressive. Coppel, Vlatos will lead those.
 Vesuvio - Accumalux wants the win here surely after spending 2015 elsewhere with Schleck to get the GT triple. This year Schleck comes back to France as reigning World Champion and has similar support as his biggest opponent in Spilak. Suaza, Aru, Kirsch, Goos and as special highlight also older brother Frank Schleck. They go all-in for the GC and without any sprinter this year. The TTT squad clearly of less quality as I-Gen but still very solid averaging at 73.
Bouygues Telecom next with Taaramäe, who showed his very best skills last year. The support is okay but not as great. Solis, Camier are pure climbers, while Barguil could become the most valuable helper for him. With Bakelants it`s a questionmark if he is a support rider on several stages or just a stage hunter for himself. Martin and Kneisky try to resuce their TTT weakness but it`s still underaverage.
 Pendelton`s around Dombrowski is an unknown really. The young American just maxed out and could be a huge threat as climbing wise he does not need to hide behind anyone. But how far can he go in a GT? He steadily improved and reached a very good 7th last year plus the U25 jersey. This year he surely aims for more than that! Kennaugh, Rosch, Copeland and Dees is solid support with average TTT skills. Though very late in the mountains he might still be isolated.
 RBC Pro Cycling being mentioned fast in a GT is something new. They waited until the Tour de France to send Phinney to a GT. It might well worth it. He never was on the podium here, closest was the 4th two years ago. Pantano Gomez mainly as support might be valuable and it might be another go for the podium even though it won`t be easy. TTT with Phinney is always a bit stronger than usual average of course.
 Tinkoff Sport Academy is the last team to send one of the top favourites here in Kritskiy. Though the Russian is not as strong as the other 5 and hence the top5 is the more realistic goal than the podium or the win. Though this is on paper. A race can write different stories. The usual Russian support climbers Kolesnikov, Kunshin, Ignatenko and so on are all solid in TT as well and hence it`s a very balanced squad.
When looking at those 6 top riders, you see the full focus on the GC! None of them sends any sprinter. All try to strengthen their mountain and TT squad as much as possible. To be honest. Anyone outside this top6 would be a surprise on the podium.
Of course there are several other riders, who are more than solid top10 material and with some luck they will even challenge for a top5.  Henao Montoya,  Wellens or  Nerz had a nice Giro finishing all in the top10!
Then some riders with their first GT of the year such as  Sicard,  Keizer,  Abal or Quintana and stage hunters and top20 riders such as  Kudus,  Anacona,  Nesset,  Karnulin, Warbasse,  Panayotov,  Diaz or  Faiers in a rare chance to lead their teams.
| Mo | Hi | TT | | Mo | Hi | TT | | Spilak | 85 | 82 | 77 |  Solis | 79 | 60 | 59 | | Schleck | 85 | 75 | 74 | Kudus | 79 | 74 | 70 | | Dombrowski | 84 | 75 | 71 | Pantano Gómez | 79 | 71 | 54 | | Taaramäe | 83 | 78 | 81 | Arndt | 79 | 76 | 56 | | Phinney | 83 | 77 | 83 | Anacona | 79 | 74 | 66 | | Kritskiy | 83 | 75 | 80 | Bennett | 78 | 76 | 65 | | Henao Montoya | 82 | 71 | 71 | Nesset | 78 | 73 | 69 | | Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 | Stancu | 78 | 69 | 66 | | Keizer | 81 | 71 | 81 | Karnulin | 78 | 74 | 70 | | Wellens | 81 | 75 | 72 | Warbasse | 78 | 75 | 74 | | Abal | 81 | 70 | 77 | Panayotov | 78 | 72 | 68 | | Lecuisinier | 81 | 75 | 77 | Choi | 78 | 72 | 73 | | Quintana | 80 | 74 | 71 | Faiers | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Nerz | 80 | 72 | 73 | Diaz | 78 | 70 | 72 | | Suaza | 80 | 65 | 73 | Aru | 78 | 74 | 64 |  König | 79 | 75 | 74 | Kirsch | 78 | 74 | 71 |
The Tour de France might also be the very best sprinter GT this season. 9 potential sprint stages is a lot of scoring opportunity. So not a surprise to see a sprinter classic kind of startlist here.
Swift, Degenkolb, Bewley, Kristoff, Mohs, Ciolek could also be a Tour of Qatar sprint duel. Really great to see the very best taking part in the biggest cycling event!
And it`s not only those.  Goss, Vantomme, Boeckmans, Maksimov, Vesely or Guardini add more to the quality while another name stands out as well: Demare is easily the best puncheur and not even Bewley can keep up with this. Once a "flat" stage tends to become more hilly, he is the man to beat. Though he will have to match against  Ponzi then!
It will be interesting to see which teams are forming a sprint train. In short some potential trains:
Pokerstars: 84-83-77
Puma: 83-80-77
Aegon: 84-77-76
Becherovka: 83-80-76
Aker: 83-77-74
| Fl | Sp | Acc | | Fl | Sp | Acc | | Degenkolb | 76 | 84 | 81 | Meyer | 72 | 80 | 76 | | Swift | 74 | 84 | 82 | Stallaert | 77 | 79 | 76 | | Bewley | 78 | 83 | 83 | Chen | 74 | 79 | 78 | | Kristoff | 75 | 83 | 79 | Wippert | 70 | 78 | 82 | | Ciolek | 75 | 83 | 79 | Sobota | 72 | 78 | 78 | | Mohs | 75 | 83 | 82 | Bar | 77 | 77 | 76 | | Goss | 74 | 82 | 78 | Breschel | 75 | 77 | 73 | | Vantomme | 73 | 82 | 78 | Feillu | 74 | 77 | 78 | | Boeckmans | 73 | 81 | 83 | Lander | 75 | 77 | 75 | | Maksimov | 72 | 81 | 84 | Kluge | 78 | 77 | 75 | | Demare | 73 | 80 | 81 | Sbaragli | 76 | 77 | 78 | | Vesely | 73 | 80 | 80 | Te Brake | 73 | 77 | 74 | | Guardini | 72 | 80 | 82 | Ponzi | 76 | 76 | 80 |
In especially the Vuelta has shown that a combination of stages and startlist, the puncheurs can mix up a GT. To be fair, the Tour de France is not as puncheur prone and the field is less strong but in especially riders such as Spilak, Sicard and Taaramae will hope for time gaps opening on the hilly terrain.
Best riders are easily Bakelants and Ponzi. Though only later might have a free role here and this is 3-4 less riders as in the Vuelta.
| Fl | Hi | Sp | | Fl | Hi | Sp | | Bakelants | 72 | 84 | 73 |  Furdi | 73 | 77 | 69 | | Ponzi | 76 | 83 | 76 | Kangert | 75 | 77 | 62 | | Spilak | 72 | 82 | 67 | Schleck | 66 | 77 | 55 |  Levarlet | 69 | 79 | 63 | Vastaranta | 73 | 76 | 75 | | Sicard | 73 | 78 | 64 | Arndt | 71 | 76 | 71 | | Monfort | 71 | 78 | 63 | Lammertink | 74 | 76 | 68 | | Taaramäe | 75 | 78 | 60 | Haas | 71 | 76 | 68 | | Sanchez Gil | 75 | 78 | 60 | Bennett | 67 | 76 | 65 | | Demare | 73 | 77 | 80 | Coppel | 77 | 76 | 65 | | Phinney | 73 | 77 | 72 | Ignatiev | 80 | 75 | 72 |
Last but not least the TT riders. The 20th day is often for GC riders but with a 6km TT on day 1 and a 13km TTT on day 7, the time trialists will get a huge chance to score here early on. In especially as only one hilly stage comes on day 5 and some TT riders might still be up there in the GC then.
| Hi | TT | Prl | | Hi | TT | Prl | | Phinney | 77 | 83 | 83 | Viennet | 67 | 80 | 80 | | Coppel | 76 | 83 | 83 | Howson | 65 | 80 | 80 | | Zmorka | 65 | 82 | 82 | Martin | 72 | 79 | 78 | | Taaramäe | 78 | 81 | 79 | Bookwalter | 72 | 79 | 79 | | Keizer | 71 | 81 | 81 | Malori | 68 | 79 | 79 | | Vlatos | 64 | 81 | 81 | Hepburn | 66 | 79 | 79 | | Kittel | 64 | 81 | 81 | Vorobev | 65 | 79 | 78 | | Ignatiev | 75 | 80 | 80 | Olman | 57 | 79 | 79 | | Kritskiy | 75 | 80 | 79 | Boom | 75 | 78 | 78 | | Sergent | 69 | 80 | 80 |  Koren | 74 | 78 | 78 |
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| ember |
Posted on 18-12-2016 09:51
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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This should be great 
Looking at my own team's chances, I don't fancy them much, as Kristoff has consistently shown this season that he isn't among the top sprinters quite yet. That means my biggest hope is probably breakaway luck with Aasvold, Hoem or Nesset involved, but that's a huge ask.
The GC battle should have it all. Schleck is the favourite in my eyes, simply because of his climbing and acceleration. On the other hand, especially Spilak must be hopeful seeing Ponzi and Bakelants lining up. That could mean the hilly stages prove very selective, like we saw in the Vuelta, and looking at the stats, that should be something he'll be able to take advantage of.
But this really is a wide open race, with Schleck, Spilak, Phinney, Taaramäe and maybe even Dombrowski as genuine contenders for the overall win.
Thank you for a nice preview, roturn! |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 18-12-2016 10:05
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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Wow, What a preview for the biggest race of the season! Thanks Roturn!
Looks like a great race ahead for the GC, I'd like to say Tarramae for the win but see no reason none of the other big names shoukdn't take it, should be some very good battles though, here's hoping at least.
Super excited to see our team up against the big boys. There's a ton of better sprinters than Vantomme, which was to be expected with such a sprinter friendly course. Maybe our train will be on Qatar form, but likely not and Pierzga being a missing piece may be cause for worry, either way happy whatever happens.
Puncheurs list looks even better for us though, Ponzi, Bakelandts and Spilak are tough but past that Sanchez looks pretty good, although with those three it's still take what we can get.
Panayotov in the favourites list is hilarious.  Although as said, he and LuLu are breakaway options in the mountains, although I feel like the breakaway/KOM appearances can involve a heavy amount of luck.
In short riders to show their face every day except time trials but low expectations. Sounds fun.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Shonak |
Posted on 18-12-2016 11:32
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
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Hm, doesn't bode well for Evonik's bid to win the Tour de France, who knew 
No MG rider won the race twice that's rather surprising. If a rider wins le Tour for the second time he sure could become a MG legend. 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| matt17br |
Posted on 18-12-2016 11:35
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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No one has won the tour more than once, with Schleck and Spilak as top favourites though this is the chance it happens this time around!
What a preview though! Absolutely stunning read. I do fancy Schleck's chances because the mountains here are hard enough to let him recuperate all the time he'll inevitably lose in the TTs, but this route is totally tailor made for Spilak, with those cheeky hilly stages and actually not too many mountains - whilst as said they're quite hard in themselves.
Just as interesting will be Swift vs Degenkolb vs Bewley! I count 9 flat stages where they will fight between each other, probably deciding which one among the 3 is the best sprinter in the MG, as all those races where they clashed often resulted in ties 
Looking forward to this!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 04:49
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| emre99 |
Posted on 18-12-2016 11:37
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3332
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My favourite is Spilak! All-in bet.
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| knockout |
Posted on 18-12-2016 13:19
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Season goal is to win the GC and the fact that not a single of my riders got mentioned at any point throughout the preview (roughly 100 different riders got a mention) is slightly bothering me for my chances of achieving that.
One of my best chances for big points is the opening prologue where Chavanne could get a lot of points with a very fortunate dice roll but aside of that I'm hoping for the usual breaks and KoM attempts for a team that is one of the worst GT lineups we've seen in years. Koch is my only maxed rider next to 7 unnamed talents and 5 of them are loaned in.
A very impressive preview !
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 18-12-2016 13:36
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Great preview!
This should be an epic battle between Spilak and Schleck.
In terms of performance I expect nothing of my team, but I do hope they will go with plenty of breakaways and join the KoM fight. It would be a shame if they go into zombie mode in the biggest race of the year.
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 18-12-2016 13:45
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3215
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A good start with the Yellow Jersey on stage 1 followed by a top 3 overall is the goal it's near enough impossible to beat Schleck in the final week but lots of stage wins and a high GC is more then enough here |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 18-12-2016 15:02
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Directeur Sportif
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Fantastic Preview! Clearly a 3-man show here - Phinney to take yellow over early, Spilak to take it over on stage 9 until the final TT, where seconds will decide that it's a second one for Spilak to prevent Schleck from winning it a second time.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 18-12-2016 15:49
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2282
Joined: 13-03-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Cant wait to witness this showdown between two of the mg greats!
Class preview, makes me even more eager to watch this
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 18-12-2016 15:57
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World Champion
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First GT of the year where eBuddy won't be winning the team rankings
A top 10 and a stage win/KoM jersey would be a perfect race for us.
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| SotD |
Posted on 18-12-2016 17:42
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
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Time to, hopefully, climb the rankings s bit. I need Coppel to deliver in the prologue, but I expect Phinney to win it.
Spilak should have the best possible help for the TTT, so we need to perform there. And after that it is all up to Spilak himself. He should have enough help for quite some time with especially Lecuisinier who is the best lieuteinant here, and also Coppel should be among the better punchy domestiques.
Can't wait for the race to start, although this could potentially destroy our entire season with a crash, split or so.
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| beagle |
Posted on 18-12-2016 19:24
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
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It will be very interesting to follow for sure. Hopefully Degenkolb will take at least 1 stage win to secure 2nd season goal.
Thanks for very detailed preview!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 19-12-2016 15:24
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4573
Joined: 07-10-2012
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Would be nice to get a stage win from Ponzi here, with even a leaders jersey possible in the opening week. Thanks for the preview roturn. |
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 19-12-2016 21:40
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7681
Joined: 19-02-2008
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Top 5 and the white jersey are the goals here, should be doable. The GC battle is intriguing.
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| Roman |
Posted on 20-12-2016 01:12
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4386
Joined: 29-05-2007
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Thanks for a great preview!
I just have to count on Bewley once again. If he delivers, I am all good here. If he fails to bring me some podium results, better some wins, then my PT winning bid is in some trouble.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 20-12-2016 09:39
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Apologies to SportingNonsense and Beagle for the kiss of death I have given to Schleck and Degenkolb by backing them to win
Nice preview roturn
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| SotD |
Posted on 20-12-2016 18:04
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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The race won't start before the best end
You have no idea how many times a day I check this site to see if the bets are down!
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 20-12-2016 18:22
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Team Leader
Posts: 6795
Joined: 21-07-2010
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Great preview, should be a great battle for the win as well.
I'm really looking forward to the teams first GT. Hopefully with some offensive riding in breakaways from Anacona (yeah, right), Breschel and Vastaranta or really any of the other guys. Just show the jersey actually.
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