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Tour of Japan Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 05-08-2015 07:41
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Directeur Sportif
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 Tour of Japan
On the MG calendar since 2009, the Tour of Japan has become a trademark for the Asian circuit. This C1 event has seen different kind of winners so far: pure climbers (Florentino Marquez/2013), allrounders (David De la Fuente/2012) and breakaway success (Mirco Saggiorato/2014).
The very short prologue won't be much of a factor for the GC, but so will the two hilly stages and - of course - the famous 11km mountain timetrial up the Mount Fuji. Any pure climbers will need to limit their losses in the challenging hilly circuit the day before though.
Two short flat stages (with the first looking quite tricky) will offer sprinters a chance to shine, too. An interesting mix of profiles.
The Startlist
The Favorites | Allrounders | MO | HI | PRL | Puncheurs | MO | HI | PRL |  Kwiatkowski | 77 | 78 | 75 |  Craven | 70 | 78 | 75 |  Zardini | 76 | 77 | 72 |  Landa | 69 | 78 | 57 | | Bennett | 78 | 76 | 65 |  Felline | 66 | 77 | 64 |  Bibby | 77 | 76 | 77 | Bol | 68 | 76 | 68 |  Cobo | 75 | 76 | 69 |  Wyss | 69 | 75 | 69 |  Kiserlovski | 80 | 75 | 71 |  Ilias | 68 | 75 | 63 | | Cataldo | 78 | 75 | 69 | Climbers | MO | HI | PRL | | Augustyn | 77 | 75 | 71 |  Intxausti | 82 | 71 | 77 |  Tvetcov | 76 | 75 | 75 |  Abal | 81 | 70 | 77 |  Shushemoin | 74 | 75 | 62 | Nerz | 80 | 72 | 73 |  Konrad | 73 | 75 | 69 | Pantano Gómez | 79 | 71 | 54 | | Dennis | 72 | 74 | 79 |  Iglinski | 77 | 72 | 69 | | Teklehaimanot | 77 | 74 | 74 | Penasa | 77 | 72 | 68 | | Bongiorno | 77 | 74 | 66 |  Libert | 76 | 67 | 62 |
And given this kinda unpredictable mix of profiles, we also notice an interesting startlist - with the expected allrounders certainly as the most promising GC contenders here: Kwiatkowski is enjoying a great season and should be considered a real threat for the overall victory. Same goes for Bibby, who finished 2nd and 3rd in the past two editions. Except of the prologue, we shouldn't care too much about TT-skills, so Zardini, Bennett, Cobo, Kiserlovski or Cataldo shouldn't be less competitive than those two top favorites.
We also see some premium climbers/stage racers at the start: Intxausti, Abal and Nerz to be named on first hand. They surely may fear the first hilly stage, but should be capable of surviving a less selective race there. Anything can happen from then on!
Craven, Landa and Felline lead a bunch of puncheurs. Especially Craven has brought in some notable results in stage races and can do enough damage in those hilly circuits.
The Stage-Hunters | Sprinters | HI | SPR | ACC | Prologue | PRL | | Guillén | 61 | 81 | 82 | Van Winden | 80 | | Kip | 56 | 80 | 82 | Dennis | 79 | | Bouhanni | 63 | 80 | 77 | Bookwalter | 79 | | Matthews | 64 | 79 | 79 | Stannard | 79 | | Croket | 65 | 79 | 71 | Gretsch | 79 | | Volikakis | 55 | 78 | 82 |  Kuboki | 78 | | Kreder | 70 | 78 | 80 | Intxausti | 77 | | Park | 63 | 78 | 77 | Abal | 77 | | Ferrari | 62 | 77 | 80 | Bibby | 77 | | Mansilla | 71 | 77 | 78 | Grabovski | 77 | | Bar | 70 | 77 | 76 | Kreuziger | 77 |
Some sprinters made their way to Japan, too: Guillén, Kip, Bouhanni and Matthews as the most promising maybe. While also guys like Kreder, Mansilla or Bar will fancy their chances in the tricky flat parcours on second day.
Van Winden as the favorite for the prologue, though fearing some tight competition: Dennis, Bookwalter, Stannard, Gretsch or local favorite Kuboki - as well as those GC contenders - can all go for the win (on a good day).
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-08-2015 07:46
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Team Manager
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Meh. Looking on such weak start list I really should have gone here...I was so close to taking this race for the Aru/Olivier combo. In the end I went for 1-2 other races instead.
I guess one of them would have done a top10 here possibly.
Looks like another race for Kwiatkowski, which is impressive to see. Also Puma should score a nice amount here, while my riders suck in Dunkerque. |
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| Heine |
Posted on 05-08-2015 07:59
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Grand Tour Specialist
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I really like this course. Should be perfect for the allrounders (and I see there are several of them here). Stage 4 should be the deciding stage, but you never know with the hilly stages. Interesting to see if the likes of Bibby can take enough time on those riders who are better on stage 4 compared to 2,3 and 5.
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| Smowz |
Posted on 05-08-2015 08:31
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Classic case of profile con job. This race is for punchaers in the main who have a decent enough MTN stat, TT stat not really super important. Craven could win Intxausti almost certainly will not, kwaitek most likely of course.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 08:00
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 05-08-2015 08:33
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Tour de France Champion
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Doesn't look like we can do much here, but nonetheless I hope for a good performance here in Japan  |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-08-2015 09:43
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Interesting startlist, and as Smowz said the TT stat shouldn't come into it too much at all. Kwiat's race to lose.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 05-08-2015 10:05
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A pretty solid team we have sent here.
Cobo as our leader for the GC has done well here in the past and is certainly looking at a good result here. He is a solid hilly rider and shouldn't lose much on the other favourites in the hilly stages. He has also done pretty well in other Mountainous TTs this season. A podium here is certainly possible and a Top 5 is at least needed.
Bouhanni here for the sprints will also hopefully get at least two podiums although a stage win from him would be nice if he uses another team's train.
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| The Rider |
Posted on 05-08-2015 10:15
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One of the races where a breakaway really could take the GC, especially if the break contest stage 3. After South Africa I wouldn't be shocked if 40+ groups come to the finish on those hilly stages.
We have to target stage 2 for Mansilla, who will be one of the favourites there. |
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| Bikex |
Posted on 05-08-2015 10:16
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Nice preview tsmoha.
Yay finally another race with one of my leaders taking part. Kiserlovski should be able with a good mountain TT to get on the podium. Surprised to see Kip as the number 1 of my team here. As expected the sprinters competition isn't too strong so with some luck a very good result on the last stage could be possible. Stage 2 seems a little hard for him I think.
On the prologue stat list you forgot Quaade who has 78 in that stat and should be able to finally get us a top 5 result in a TT |
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 05-08-2015 10:32
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With the combo of Bennett, Craven and Augustyn to call upon, I'm tipping Project Africa for the win in Japan.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 05-08-2015 10:46
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Originally wanted to send Kangert here, but found a better destination for those racedays. Shame because in this startlist he could've done very well. I'm afraid this is going to be easy points for our rival Kenya. Hope Bibby finally starts performing and beats Kwiatkowski.
We'll have to go for breakaway success. And with some luck maybe Konrad can squeeze into the top 15.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 05-08-2015 11:03
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Interesting race for us, we don't know what to expect here, and this year the rae isn't a goal for us either. I guess Matthews can do well on the final stage if he continues the form he's in. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 05-08-2015 11:12
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Team Manager
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It's such an ideal race for Bibby, I hope he shows up this time!
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 05-08-2015 11:28
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Classics Specialist
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Why did I not bring Zoidl? I get the impression he'd have done well here, or at the least he'd have added some strong extra support for Zardini.
I like how high Zardini features in the preview but considering how my season has gone I don't want to get my hopes up.
Maybe Chavanne will show some of the potential he's got in Prologues this time around and get a top 10/15 in the opening stage, which at only 2.2k he should be well suited to.
I can't wait until he's maxed and can dominate these.
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 05-08-2015 14:37
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Weaker startlist here than Romandie, and Kwiatkowski seems to be the favourite so hopefully we can get another podium. Whether he can win and beat the likes of Bibby and Intxausti depends on if he can create gaps on the two hilly stages. |
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 05-08-2015 15:03
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Small Tour Specialist
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Have the feeling this is going to be another failure. Atleast I have the squad to do something though..
Kwiat to win again after getting into the right groups on the hilly stages. Interesting to see Intxausi aswell here with his bad hillstat. Doubtful that he will perform though when he can't even perform in races that are perfect for him. Hopefully this is gonna be a turnaround for him though!
As said, would be nice to get something out a race without Brajko in it for once..
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 05-08-2015 15:14
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dev4ever wrote:
Have the feeling this is going to be another failure. Atleast I have the squad to do something though..
Kwiat to win again after getting into the right groups on the hilly stages. Interesting to see Intxausi aswell here with his bad hillstat. Doubtful that he will perform though when he can't even perform in races that are perfect for him. Hopefully this is gonna be a turnaround for him though!
As said, would be nice to get something out a race without Brajko in it for once..
Have a feeling I got this race mixed up with another I think it was romandie that I wanted to send Intxausti too and boily here or boily will end up in a mountain race somewhere else
Not that it matters Intxausti won't do anything anyway while Boily has been on fire wherever he goes |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 05-08-2015 15:24
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World Champion
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Certainly a risk for Nerz here, but at least he can't miss the attacks on the mountain stage this time 
Felline is perfect for the hilly stages and stage 2 (if the AI lets him), and Bar might have more energy left than better sprinters on that last stage.
So a lot of stage hunting and hopefully little gaps on the hilly stages so Nerz can do something for once.
Kwiatek has too many races that suit him for my liking by now...
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| ryant |
Posted on 05-08-2015 15:58
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Small Tour Specialist
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You know what? I am slightly hopeful of a good performance in this race to be honest, but maybe my optimism will be washed away. At first I thought Tvetcov would be the leader, but Dennis could be a feature if he manages to win stage 1 and get the leaders bonus.
Overall, its quite a strong team i have sent here but the TTs are my best chance of a stage win, and the overall (top 10?) is another goal here...
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| ggDonovan |
Posted on 05-08-2015 16:07
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Don't ask me why but I was expecting an even weaker startlist in this race.
Seeing the quality of the allrounders the only way I see us grabbing the win is to have an outstanding prologue and wearing the yellow (?) in the first hilly stage. Then all is about the time differences in the MTT and speculate in the second hilly stage, which I feel it will be harder than the first one.
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