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Milan San Remo Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 28-06-2015 13:46
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Milan San Remo is the first monument of the season. As always it should deliver some great racing and a nice memory for the winner.
With Le Manie, Cipressa, Pompeiana and Poggio the route has lots of difficulties again.
The route itself is half of the race. It surely makes it interesting to favour sprinters just as much as puncheurs. The other half though are the riders themselves. Depending on their pace over those hills, the puncheurs can make it harder for the sprinters. That said, the sprinter teams will do everything to take control over the situation.
Not many former winners are here this year. It`s basically just the two Italian puncheurs Ricco (2014) and Ulissi (2012). No Boonen (2013), Ballan (2011), Pozzato (07 & 10), Pellizotti (2009) and Sanchez Golnzalez (2008).
So those two surely must be named as well as favourites. Same goes for a couple of other riders including last year`s 3rd Gilbert as well obviously.
The following lists of sprinters and puncheurs though will show, that the top favourites list is a lot longer:
| Flat | Hill | Sprint | | Flat | Hill | Sprint |  Hagen | 77 | 85 | 73 |  Van Stayen | 76 | 76 | 83 |  Bakelants | 72 | 84 | 73 |  Bewley | 78 | 71 | 83 |  Trofimov | 74 | 83 | 74 |  Degenkolb | 76 | 69 | 83 | | Ginanni | 73 | 83 | 66 | Howard | 76 | 68 | 82 |  Ponzi | 76 | 82 | 76 |  Tzortzakis | 74 | 65 | 82 |  Skujins | 70 | 82 | 68 |  Vanderbiest | 74 | 64 | 82 |  Gastauer | 69 | 82 | 67 |  Avelino | 71 | 64 | 82 |  Flügel | 69 | 81 | 68 | Zabel | 74 | 69 | 81 |  Schreurs | 70 | 81 | 71 | Kristoff | 75 | 68 | 81 |  Schumacher | 74 | 81 | 67 |  Bennati | 72 | 66 | 81 | | Ricco | 74 | 80 | 67 | Kennaugh | 77 | 65 | 81 | | Roche | 72 | 80 | 69 | Napolitano | 72 | 65 | 81 |  Ulissi | 76 | 80 | 73 | Holloway | 78 | 69 | 80 | | Costa | 70 | 80 | 69 | Van Avermaet | 76 | 66 | 80 | | Gautier | 72 | 80 | 68 |  Guardini | 72 | 64 | 80 | | Zaini | 66 | 80 | 65 | Grosu | 71 | 72 | 79 |  Gilbert | 79 | 79 | 67 | Vesely | 73 | 68 | 79 | | Bilbao | 71 | 79 | 71 | Appollonio | 72 | 66 | 79 |  Betancourt | 69 | 79 | 67 | Aberasturi | 74 | 64 | 79 |  Anuar Aziz | 71 | 79 | 67 | Colbrelli | 74 | 61 | 79 | | Sagan | 72 | 78 | 73 | Van der Lijke | 73 | 75 | 78 | | Lutsenko | 68 | 78 | 71 | Van Asbroeck | 73 | 70 | 78 | | Caruso | 68 | 78 | 70 | Merino Criado | 73 | 69 | 78 | | Palini | 69 | 78 | 68 | Krasnov | 72 | 63 | 78 |
More riders that surely could make an impact with a high power engine to surprise with a late attack are:
| Flat | Hill | Sprint | | Cancellara | 82 | 70 | 70 | | Ignatiev | 80 | 75 | 72 |  Burghardt | 79 | 72 | 69 | | Sergent | 79 | 69 | 61 | | Kluge | 78 | 68 | 77 | | Viviani | 78 | 66 | 71 | | Kruijswijk | 78 | 72 | 65 | | Gasparotto | 77 | 70 | 75 | | Coppel | 77 | 74 | 65 | | Gusev | 77 | 71 | 56 |
So the start list has a lot to offer and we wait for the official start now.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-06-2015 13:52
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Nice preview, roturn. Even though Bobridge is missing, but I know why 
Actually, I did have some hopes for Bobridge being amongst those, who try to escape on the final climb. Wouldn't stand a chance, I guess, but at least trying would be cool (and possibly lead to a Top-20/25 finish).. Went for Burghardt as my leader here. He should be able to be in the front group/bunch, so at least grabbing some points.
After Gossy's miserable start into the season, I'm pretty happy to not bringing him here. I kinda was afraid of my team going all-in for just him and no one else.
As always, an interesting race and the big question, if we see a Ricco-move surviving or those bad ass sprinters like Van Stayen/Bewley making it. I still think Hagen, Bakelants, Ponzi (coming off a huge win in Luxembourg) and of course Troffi will battle for line honours on first hand.
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| Kami |
Posted on 28-06-2015 14:21
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I have a pretty good team here for when the race gets harder. Ulissi always has a chance for a surprise win, and he has some good support here in Bilbao and Viviani. I would definitely like a top 10.
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| Roman |
Posted on 28-06-2015 15:02
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Another big failure for us is coming here. Or maybe not? The minimal aim has to be the podium with the lineup I have here.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-06-2015 15:06
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This is always a cool race; looking forward to it. Van Stayen should have a good chance.
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| Crommy |
Posted on 28-06-2015 15:10
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The favourite has to be Trofimov, but I'm hoping Jan can deliver a top 5 here
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 28-06-2015 15:21
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Didnt really have a rider suited for this race so I went for the all out breakaway approach instead of going with TVG or Maksimov.
Im going to guess Van Stayen takes this. 
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| Smowz |
Posted on 28-06-2015 17:35
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Hmm I went with all sorts of odds and sods, Cancellara is dead weight at the moment, holloway has been decent and Skujins is the flavour of the month down in Beijing... So something from those.
@mre I would have thought TvG was worth a punt? Maksimov certainly not!
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 28-06-2015 17:43
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Never really sure with this but we've scored well here in the past. We can but hope.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 28-06-2015 17:43
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Never really sure with this but we've scored well here in the past. We can but hope.
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| Heine |
Posted on 28-06-2015 18:42
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Tried to hedge my bet here, sending both Flügel and Zabel, hopefully Flügel will follow attacks while Zabel should be among the sprinters with the best legs if there is a mass sprint.
Most likely, a fail and no top 10
My bet here is on Van Staeyen. He got perfect stats here
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 15:24
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 28-06-2015 19:25
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My first goal of the season, and also my win goal.
Wide open race as usual, so a bit of a lottery to guess the winner. Hopefully it will end in a reduced bunch sprint. Van Stayen should have a very good chance, then.
Looking forward to the report!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 28-06-2015 19:43
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Really tried to bring a strong team here, but I doubt it will be enough. Have to hope for a bit of luck in the sprints, or that Zaini is somehow the strongest for a late attack. Thanks for the preview Roturn.
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| ember |
Posted on 28-06-2015 20:10
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Nice preview, roturn.
This really is a great race as sprinters, puncheurs and those strong guys all got a realistic chance at winning it. That's what's lovely about it, both in MG and in real life.
Went with both Boasson Hagen and Kristoff. Having both Boasson Hagen and Impey here before have worked, and I hope it will work this time too. If it does, a top 10 should be possible from either of them. The dream scenario is of course that we "pull a Festina" and Boasson Hagen crosses the finish line in San Remo alone 
Tried Bewley in a bet, he showed in Qatar that he got the better sprint and better train (when they bothered) compared to Van Staeyen. and if it comes down to a sprint, 71 hill should be good enough to be relatively fresh, I think.
Looking a lot forward to the report! |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 28-06-2015 21:29
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Smowz wrote:
@mre I would have thought TvG was worth a punt? Maksimov certainly not!
I have never trusted flat rated stages that look hilly. Wasn't worth the risk of sending TVG. Plus every time I remember racing MSR it's been the hilly sprinters who prevail, not the fast punchuers. But perhaps that's just my observation. We shall see. Van Stayen vs. EBH.
(Or my fingers crossed for a Movistar breakaway to steal the show )
Edited by Mresuperstar on 28-06-2015 21:29
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 28-06-2015 21:46
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Every season I've put my faith in Ponzi, and so far have yet to prevail. I'm keeping my faith though, and after winning Classique du Grand-Duché, he's shown his form and race winning abilities. Hopefully with the strong squad behind him we'll rip the sprinters to shreds (though I doubt the AI will do so...)
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk]  [/url] |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 28-06-2015 21:47
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Kadri is probably my best bet here. Which isn't ideal |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 29-06-2015 04:33
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Trofimov's debute in Milan San Remo, I really hope he will be in the previous winners list next year!
EDIT: Great to see Krasnov in the sprinterslist, but he isn't riding Milan San Remo to my knowledge.
Edited by OlegTinkov on 29-06-2015 10:36
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 29-06-2015 07:59
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Great preview for out first ever monument, looking forward to that as it can be also the monument with biggest chance for success for Metinvest.
We enter with a triple threat of Guradini, Grosu and Ignatiev, i would think that the latter can have a chance with furious late attack or as Grosu waiting for sprint of selected group. Guardini would need calm race and train from the other two to succeed.
Our goal is top10, after miserable start to the season.
Good luck to all!
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 29-06-2015 11:18
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Just Newton being Newton.  Went to the bathroom then came back to find out the race was already underway.
Thanks for the report roturn. I liked the videos and flashback moment. Adds that extra depth that makes the MG special.
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