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Tour Down Under Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:12
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The first classics are raced and now it`s the chance for the stage racers to shine as the Tour Down Under is the stage race opener 2014.
Often the top riders of the Down Under Classic used to race the Tour Down Under as well. This year it is a bit different and the best placed rider in the Classic is Matthew Goss, who came in 6th. The complete top5 left Australia already and is not taking part here. So we don`t really can draw conclusions from that race.
Last year we saw a great fight for the overall win with Alex Dowsett just beating unlucky Aleskandr Efimkin, who was within the same time! Both are again there in 2014 as also last years 3rd Francesco Gavazzi. All three also took a stage win back then and need to be mentioned for sure. Also the sprint winners of 2013 Haussler and Docker are here again, so it`s 6/6 coming back to Australia.
And if this wasn`t enough already we have the GC winners of the last 4 years at the start:  Alex Dowsett,  Allan Davis,  Yukiya Arashiro and  Wes Sulzberger. Unfortunately Kappa - ENI did not nominate Mauro Facci as he would have been the 5th former GC winner while Ivan Rovny is riding in the Pro Tour.
But let`s come to the 2014 event. We have mentioned several names now but actually the real favourites are others mainly.
Seeing 3 hilly stages containing the often race deciding Willunga Hill on the 5th, some of the divisions top puncheurs are on the startlist:
 Froome
 Ulissi and defending champion
Dowsett are 3 of the only 4 80+ puncheurs. So we have the clear favourites already. Not sure in what order but I say, Ulissi looks the strongest due to his sprint advantage and so I call him the top favourite.
It`s also the first duel between former team mates Froome and Dowsett since first left the team to join Quickstep. So two of the biggest promotion candidates might already take a race podium here in the first stage race of the season.
But we can`t stop with those three. Several more top puncheurs in the PCT are at the start.
 Roy
 Betancourt
 Gautier
Efimkin
 Barrio
 Ben Nasser and
 Mehr-Wenige complete a huge start list with most prominent top puncheurs. All of them will try and actually do have chances to get into the mix for the top rankings.
Where are the Aussies you might ask. Good question. The home top puncheur Jack Bobridge surprisingly is not starting here. The only home team obviously was expecting a tough startlist and wants to use him in other races instead. But they also did not nominate their 2nd best Aussie Lloyd. Instead Oz Cycling goes for a combo of Jiao/Visconti.
So the first Aussie puncheur capable to surprise probably is CT wild card rider  Nathan Haas. Surely the crowd will push him forward hoping for a top result.
Following are a row of outside favourites such as  Van Stayen
Ventoso
 Durasek
 Hermans
 Rabon
McEvoy
 Shushemoin
 Simon
 Weening
 Dyachenko
 Failli and
 Gavazzi.
So quite a lot of names here and in especially first two categories will make it a very special race I think. But let`s not forget about the other stages.
Of course the Tour Down Under also attracts the sprinters a lot with 3 flat stages even though you could argue that one of those might be too hilly while a hilly stage might end in a sprint finish.
So here the top sprinters and we start with an Aussie this time. Not going for the GC it seems, Oz Cycling still has a great rider in their squad, who could put his stamp onto the race. Matthew Goss had some years in the PT but is riding in the PCT this season and belongs to the very best in the division and also in this race.
But taking an Australian win won`t be easy as opposition is strong.
Napolitano
 Cavendish
Van Stayen
Vanderbiest
Haussler and
Richeze all ride for their new team here and belong to the favourites for a stage win.
In especially Venchi with Van Stayen has good chances on the hillier stages as also their support is excellent with Van Avermaet.
Docker
Gasparotto/Wegmann
Trentin
Kreder
Coquard
Grillo/Kump
Hoffman
Ventoso
Nepomnyachsniy
Davis/McEvoy
Sutton
Drujon
Manan and
Oss want to go for their chance as well.
The hillier finishes might actually find different favourites though, who will be mentioned more specific before that stage. But fact is, that we have lots of those hilly sprinters with the likes of Van Stayen, Ventoso, Oss, Kump, Trentin, Wegmann and several more.
Hard to predict that race. Too many top riders. It will also be interesting to see the pure puncheurs against the hilly sprinters. If they can gain some bonus seconds on the way to Willunga Hill and reduce their loss, they could bring us a nice surprise.
In general I feel that quite a few managers will be disappointed in the end when comparing their sent riders with their scored points in the end, which is always an issue in those packed startlists.
But definitely a startlist that deserves to open the stage race season.
Edited by roturn on 12-04-2014 11:12
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| jph27 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:17
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Well this is a huge startlist. Hopefully Haussler can nick points on the flat stages and (I doubt it) a win, while Gautier will hopefully get a GC top 10. I fear Van Stayen massively though. |
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:18
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Nice preview there. 
Very happy i couldn't get in any more, we'd have been torn to pieces for sure. 
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| cio93 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:18
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Huge startlist for a C1 race! 
I would say Van Stayen and Ulissi have a very good chance to win this on bonus seconds.
Will definitely follow closely as it should already give me some indications regarding where to use Demare next season.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:21
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Not too confident on Dowsett, but felt obliged to try and defend the race victory! Should hopefully be a great race.
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:26
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Great startlist, looking forward to it. It's not greatly suited to Froome with his low sprint abilities, but I thought anyway it would be a nice race to enter even if we don't do as well as expected. Depending on the situation of the race Top 5 would be fine here.
If Van Stayen gets bonus seconds at sprints he'll be the winner for sure though.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:30
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*Spotted the preview in the discussion forum*
*Remembered he sent some decent puncheurs and sprinters*
*Take a brief look at the other teams*
Aaaand..... January will continue to be a 0 point month for us! |
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| fintas |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:45
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My first thought upon seeing this startlist I'm screwed.
The top 10 in this race is the first goal of the season, but after seeing cyclists present begin to see the possibilities of achieving this get very but very small.
My only hope is that some of the stages to be selective enough to leave behind the pure sprinters, but not enough that the puncheurs make a difference and there McEvoy can make use of its ability to sprint. Otherwise will fail the first goal of the season.
Edited by fintas on 12-04-2014 11:45
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:52
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Happy not to have sent Bellis here now but i have a feeling all races this season are going to be competitive anyway, chances for Vanderbiest and Docker here so hopefully they can do a good ride and Durasek top 20 would be nice |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 12-04-2014 11:56
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Way too packed startlist, even for the sprints  Bobridge would have been a waste here, i expect some randomness thanks to less selective stages. Lloyd btw ain't riding for Oz anymore, so we couldn't nominate a useful Aussie
Stage-win for Goss and I'm fine.
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 12-04-2014 12:00
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tsmoha wrote:
Way too packed startlist, even for the sprints Bobridge would have been a waste here, i expect some randomness thanks to less selective stages. Lloyd btw ain't riding for Oz anymore, so we couldn't nominate a useful Aussie
Stage-win for Goss and I'm fine.
You never know, Bobridge with national bonus and that amazing acceleration I think would be my favoruite personally along Ullissi and Van Stayen for the podium so I am very happy not too see him here
Edited by Alakagom on 12-04-2014 12:00
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Posted on 22-11-2024 14:02
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| Kami |
Posted on 12-04-2014 12:24
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I'm hoping for the win, but races like these could go either way. Van Stayen will probably win though, unless he cracks on Willunga hill.
Ulissi should have a good shot with his decent sprint, and perhaps Bilbao being here aswell will help him out.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 12-04-2014 12:45
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Alakagom wrote:
tsmoha wrote:
Way too packed startlist, even for the sprints Bobridge would have been a waste here, i expect some randomness thanks to less selective stages. Lloyd btw ain't riding for Oz anymore, so we couldn't nominate a useful Aussie
Stage-win for Goss and I'm fine.
You never know, Bobridge with national bonus and that amazing acceleration I think would be my favoruite personally along Ullissi and Van Stayen for the podium so I am very happy not too see him here
Maybe, maybe not Goss just gave a sh**t about national bonus at the DUC. It's more like why spend 5 racedays for Bobridge without an ITT instead of being totally chanceless. So i decided to avoid the gamble for hoping on bonus seconds and go for Visconti, whomay at least hit a Top-20 or 15. Or Sulzberger to overachieve 
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| viking90 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 12:48
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Tougher start list then I thought, but hope to get our first points for the season here |
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 12-04-2014 12:49
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Time to see if the Ventoso/Barrio combination is going to work. Had success with Costa/Barrio last season but hoping a faster finisher in Ventoso and an improved Barrio that we will do even better.
That said, as long as we get out of here with a few points I'll be happy.
Excited to get our season underway!
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 13:52
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Sent our strongest hilly lineup, but the startlist could prevent a really good result. Still, Ben Nasser's decent sprint should give him the upper hand in the more selective stages, so I think a top five could still be possible.
Gasparotto and Wegmann could win a stage between them but with Ventoso, Kump and Van Staeyen here I highly doubt it. Could get a couple of decent results though.
Hopefully we can grab our first real points of the season. Looking forward to the reports rourn, Ulissi is my pick. |
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| Stevenag |
Posted on 12-04-2014 14:46
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My team here is absolutly painfully mediocre. Has to hope for a breakaway or two again.
It is always a great sign when the average wage you pay for your team is less then 50k.
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| Firefly21 |
Posted on 12-04-2014 14:51
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This...could easily be a disaster for us - Drujon is hopelessly outgunned in the sprints - and I was hoping to *avoid* packed startlists with him this season.
I have Vastaranta and Simon here which is my two best puncheurs, but I'll have to hope for some selective, but not too selective finishes where Vastaranta/Simon can sprint for something. Also we are so far down on the startlist, maybe we will have a rider go for the KoM, which would be a reasonable goal.
Should be fun to read the reports, but not necessarily expecting a points haul of any sort
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| tyriion |
Posted on 12-04-2014 15:58
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Big startlist, had hoped Gavazzi/Trentin would have been serious contenders. Too bad that seems out of reach. Looking foward to Trentin's first race in our colors however.
Check out my ManGame team here
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| YvesStevens |
Posted on 12-04-2014 16:16
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I still laugh everytime I read Kenya Airways XD |
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