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TdF'13 Stage 11: Avranches to Mont-Saint-Michel (July 10)
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| Malkael |
Posted on 09-07-2013 16:59
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Sprinter
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Stage 11: Avranches to Mont-Saint-Michel
Without a prologue to herald the grand départ of the Tour de France, Stage 11 will be the first opportunity the peloton have to test themselves against the clock in “the race against the truth”. Unlike the Team Time Trial however, there is no where to hide in the individual time trial, as the cyclists rely solely on their own strength, willpower, and time trialling skills.
The rolling 33km route, from town of Avranches to the beautiful Mont-Saint-Michel, will be more technical then the usual flat time trial stage. The elevation of the road, and therefore gradient, is ever-changing for the first half of the stage. However, the second half of the stage will certainly favour those with a sound aerodynamic position and the ability to churn a massive gear, as the road descends and flattens out in to the finish at Mont-Saint-Michel.
The shortness of the stage should hopefully limit the time gaps between the General Classification contenders from blowing out too far. However, during the Criterium du Dauphine, in a flat time trial of similar length, we saw Chris Froome, of Team Sky, decisively distance his rivals by over two minutes. After failing to close the gap to Froome on Stage 9, the likes of Alejandro Valverde, of Movistar, and Alberto Contador, of Team Saxo-Tinkoff, will be hoping to avoid such a repeat.
With the stage route travelling adjacent to the Normandy coast, and the nearby tidal causeway, the wind could potentially have an affect on the result. Without a doubt the riders and their teams will be keeping a cautious eye on the weather conditions for the day. Should the weather decide to interfere with the stage, the ability to hold a solid aerodynamic position could become essential in the quest for vital minutes and seconds.
Overwhelming favourite to claim the stage victory is, understandably, Tony Martin, of Omega Pharma-Quickstep. While Martin unfortunately ended Stage 1, which seems so long ago now, in an abysmal condition, he has been looking stronger with each passing day. With or without interference from the wind, the German should prevail through his sheer power and excellent aerodynamic position.
With Fabian Cancellara, of Radioshack-Leopard, and Bradley Wiggins, of Team Sky, absent from the Tour de France it is hard to see anyone defeating Martin. However, should the German still be feeling the affects of his Stage 1 crash there are a number of outsiders who could potentially be savouring a rare Tour de France time trial victory. Deciding who could take the stage victory in such a situation however, could be a difficult task.
After Team Sky's domination of the individual time trials during the 2012 Tour de France the eyes of the world will be fixated on Froome, as they watch to see where he finishes. It is debatable whether he will be challenging for the stage victory, but with Froome appearing to be in superb form and looking at his result in the past twelve months, he cannot be discounted.
With Sylvain Chavanel, Michał Kwiatkowski, and Peter Velits, Omega Pharma-Quickstep may have one of the better bets for the stage, should Martin disappoint. Having to work for Mark Cavendish in Stage 10 may count against them, as it could for Martin. However, both the Frenchman and Slovakian have shown an ability to consistently recover and put in another strong performance for the team again the day after.
With uncertainty abounds over just how hard many of the domestiques of the General Classification contenders will commit themselves in Stage 11, it is hard to analyse how well each may do. Should the domestiques of the General Classification contenders be let off the leash, Team Sky have a strong set of time trialists with Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Edvald Boasson Hagen. While BMC could focus on the stage victory with young American, Tejay van Garderen. It may also be unfair to discount the chances of Michael Rogers, of Team Saxo-Tinkoff, and Jonathan Castroviejo, of Movistar.
Other potential outsiders for a decent finishing position include David Millar, Andreas Klöden, Thomas De Gendt, Cameron Mayer, and former Canadian Time Trial Champion Svein Tuft. Riding for Orica-GreenEDGE, Tuft has marked the stage as a personal target. Throughout the Tour de France he has, reportedly, been preparing himself for a massive performance in the Stage 11 individual time trial. However, his chances may be hampered after being involved in a crash as the peloton rode in to Stage 10's finish at Saint-Malo.
Will Tony Martin continue his dominance in the individual time trial despite his injury from Stage 1? How much time will Chris Froome theoretically gain on everyone? Or will the short nature of the stage save the gaps from being too large? Perhaps we might see a surprise or two to shake things up. |
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:00
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World Champion
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Even with injuries, really hope that Martin wins. Froome to take 3 minutes on everyone. |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:02
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Tour de France Champion
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I think Froome bot is pretty obvious here.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Bahrdk |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:03
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Under 23
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I bet that froome will be in top 3 or maybe win the ITT tomorrow. But really hope that Tony has good legs, wants to see him win again after he's first week! |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 11:47
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:06
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Froome's TT hasn't been amazing this year so far, more than solid, but not enough to challenge Martin.
Martin seems to have recovered well enough and should take the win. However that depends how Martin is feeling, and we can't known for sure, we'll just have to see tomorrow.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:07
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Tour de France Champion
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Alakagom wrote:
Froome's TT hasn't been amazing this year so far, more than solid, but not enough to challenge Martin.
Martin seems to have recovered well enough and should take the win. However that depends how Martin is feeling, and we can't known for sure, we'll just have to see tomorrow.
Froomechkin will be unmatched, just like last year,
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Sankt Croix |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:17
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Junior Rider
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I think Kreuziger could be a pick for top 3-5 tomorrow, he's in great shape. Also Rui Costa could make a top perfomance. He won the time trial in Tour de Suisse.
Looking forward to watch Bauke Mollema too, I really don't think he will lose that much time so my guees is that he still will be third in the GC after tomorrow - maybe second. Depends on Kreuzigers time trial.
EDIT: Totally forgot that the time trial in Suisse had a 6km climb at the end. Gives of course a diferrent picture.
Edited by Sankt Croix on 09-07-2013 17:25
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| Pellizotti2 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:18
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World Champion
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Injured or not, Martin is better than the dawg against the clock. I expect him to win by a minute, if not a little more.
Kwiatek for 3rd on both stage and GC. Valverde to keep 2nd.
Sankt Croix wrote:
I think Kreuziger could be a pick for top 3-5 tomorrow, he's in great shape.
He's less than useless in flat TTs, though. It's been years since his last good result.
Edited by Pellizotti2 on 09-07-2013 17:19
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| wogsrus |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:22
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Hoping Meyer and Tuft can top 10 tomorrow. |
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:27
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World Champion
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wogsrus wrote:
Hoping Meyer and Tuft can top 10 tomorrow.
Doubtful. Meyer seems to be struggling so far, while tuft had a heavy crash today and came last. Just depends how he's affected, but even small injury will cause problems for optimal position in TT.
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:28
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15274
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Oh, this profile seems way more flat than the one I saw earlier.
Tom Dumoulin for Top 10 tomorrow.
Not Kreuzinger 
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:29
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Grand Tour Champion
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All PCM$ on Tony Martin |
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| SSJ2Luigi |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:32
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World Champion
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Kirchen_75 wrote:
All PCM$ on Tony Martin
shouldn't do all. Froome is here too
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:34
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Team Leader
Posts: 7357
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SSJ2Luigi wrote:
Kirchen_75 wrote:
All PCM$ on Tony Martin
shouldn't do all. Froome is here too
Froome loses 2"/km on Martin in timetrials this season. Only wind changes can stop Martin
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:34
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Grand Tour Champion
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SSJ2Luigi wrote:
Kirchen_75 wrote:
All PCM$ on Tony Martin
shouldn't do all. Froome is here too
Seriously if Froome.exe beats Tony in that TT with his stupid position on the bike. Then if anyone wasn't convinced about his legitmate marginal gains. Then that should settle it. |
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| Bearo99 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:34
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Tony must have this one... right?
Froome will take out 2 minutes on Valverde, Mollema and Rodriguez. I think Contador is a bit of a mystery here, I'll guess we'll just have to wait and see what he can do.
Just wondering where people think Dan Martin could finish? |
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:36
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Bearo99 wrote:
Just wondering where people think Dan Martin could finish?
He is the worst timetrialist of the top 10 contenders together with Nieve
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:36
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Tour de France Champion
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Bearo99 wrote:
Tony must have this one... right?
Froome will take out 2 minutes on Valverde, Mollema and Rodriguez. I think Contador is a bit of a mystery here, I'll guess we'll just have to wait and see what he can do.
Just wondering where people think Dan Martin could finish?
He's always struggled with TT. Ithink he'll fall out of the top 10 here.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Bearo99 |
Posted on 09-07-2013 17:40
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baseballlover312 wrote:
Bearo99 wrote:
Tony must have this one... right?
Froome will take out 2 minutes on Valverde, Mollema and Rodriguez. I think Contador is a bit of a mystery here, I'll guess we'll just have to wait and see what he can do.
Just wondering where people think Dan Martin could finish?
He's always struggled with TT. Ithink he'll fall out of the top 10 here.
Although he doesn't exactly have any decent Time Trialists behind him. Still 9 more stages after this one to go, though. |
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| cosmic |
Posted on 09-07-2013 18:26
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Stagiare
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Martin will take it if he's not too crippled by his injuries. Froome probably taking another minute+ out of most of the closest GC "contenders". Contador looked more comfortable on the TT bike during the TTT than in Dauphine, so I don't expect him to lose nearly as much as he did there.
Edited by cosmic on 09-07-2013 18:27
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