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DD's CT Analysis
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 15-01-2013 22:51
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SportingNonsense wrote:
CountArach wrote:
Resistance is way more important in PCM12. That's why the daily DB lowered everyone's resistance stat by 4 or 5.
Well I hope the ManGame DB doesnt need that, because nobody ever mentioned it til now!
Don't think it's needed for the ManGame DB. The PCM Daily DB had very close resistance stats. I think all GT contenders had between 77-80 resistance. There are clear differences in the Man Game DB. Denifl has 13 less Resistance as Sella iirc.
Edited by Spilak23 on 15-01-2013 22:53
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 15-01-2013 23:32
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Mountainous Hilly classics, stages and tours without TT
N.B.: Arroyo, Marzano, Menchov and Moreno were ignored for this category because they have limited race days and their main strength clearly lies in a different category.
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Rodriguez Oliver | Iberia - Comunidad Valenciana | | 2 | Scarponi | Kappa - ENI | | 3 | Weening | Team Gazelle | | 4 | Feillu | Risa - Ergon | | 5 | Sánchez Gonzalez | Iberia - Comunidad Valenciana | | 6 | Nieve | Barcelona - Estrella Damm | | 7 | Schurter | Sauber Petronas | | 8 | Talabardon | Allianz-BMW | | 9 | Furdi | Team Gazelle | | 10 | Mehr-Wenige | Adira Isq-Project |
There is a bunch of hilly races that feature one or more relatively long climbs and I suspect these races to have a mountain/hill ratio somewhere between 0.25 and 0.5. This is actually a wild guess, but it seems like a logical thing to do for stage makers. And if you add 35% of mountain stat to the mix, the hilly field suddenly changes drastically.
The fabulous four from the regular hilly races lose their German member Mehr-Wenige and Weening suddenly looks less strong as well. Rodriguez and Scarponi both have +2 CL on him and I think this closes his tiny lead. The hilly stat still counts for 65%, so Rodriguez gets the top spot ahead of Scarponi.
After these three there is a significant gap in quality to the rest. But between places 4 and 10, the differences are very small and it was hard to rank them.
The best of that group came as a bit of a surprise to me, but probably not to his manager; Brice Feillu. He’s miles away from the top 10 best climbers and he’s not in the top 10 best puncheurs either, but in this category he’s actually one of the very best. I fear the attacks his 78 FTR will convince him to make.
The top 5 is completed by good old Samuel Sanchez; Rodriguez’ master helper who ends up top 6 in both hilly categories. He’ll probably be a good point scorer.
Then we come to Mikel Nieve; a climber with decent hilly skills and great backup stats. Because he is a strong outsider in the mountains, it remains to be seen whether he will show up in hilly races, but I think he’d do well in this category.
Nino Schurter is basically a slightly less good version of Samuel Sanchez, which means he’ll also do well on this terrain. And again; 80 downhilling is a great skill to have.
Next on the list is Yannick Talabardon; the last of the invasion of the climbers. His stats are quite similar to Nieve, but in my opinion just a tiny little bit less good. He does have a great flat stat though; that might help him at times.
Weening’s lieutenant Blaz Furdi is also an o.k. climber and will probably be able to hang on to everyone outside the top 3. His 68 SP, 70 ACC might score him some nice results in this category.
And even though he is severely hampered by his 66 CL, the very strong Mehr-Wenige is still a dangerous rider on this terrain and deserves to be in this top 10.
Edited by DubbelDekker on 23-01-2013 02:46
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 19-01-2013 03:07
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Flat classics, stages and tours without TT
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Maksimov | Team PrivatBank | | 2 | Steegmans | Banco Nacional de Costa Rica | | 3 | Lay | Iberia - Comunidad Valenciana | | 4 | Peeters | JK Cycling Project | | 5 | Dekkers | Allianz-BMW | | 6 | Nelson | ANC Halfords | | 7 | Guillén | Banco Nacional de Costa Rica | | 8 | Kankovský | Team Credexbank | | 9 | Dall'Antonia | Mobil - Castrol Cycling | | 10 | Cardoso | Team PrivatBank |
Many CT teams chose to get at least one decent sprinter and will probably join the group of teams that chase down any attackers in the flat races. So I might as well call this category ‘Sprinters’. With 58 CT riders having 75 SP or more, we might be in for some very hectic and interesting sprints, featuring many different teams trying to set up the winning train.
If the terrain is not too hilly there is one big favorite for every sprint: Roman Maksimov. There are 4 riders with 80 or more SP and the Russian loanee from CSC is the only one that has decent backup stats. Not only is he fast (81 SP); he can also sprint for a long time (84 ACC). If Buts, Ansons, Gomenyuk, Lima, Cardoso, Polivoda are able to set him up properly, which they should, he will be very hard to beat.
The second name on the list is actually not one of the fastest sprinters at all, but somehow I just think that over an entire season Gert Steegmans will get plenty of good performances out of this type of race. There are so many scenarios in which he will go into the sprint with more energy than his competitors:
- if the speed in the kilometers leading up to the sprint is extremely high.
- if there are small hills near the finish.
- if the race is more than 200km.
There's ofcourse also the possibility that his team will use him as the perfect leadout for Guillén. In that case Steegmans should go down the list a few places and Guillén up. Their 12 points difference in FL stat might be a problem though.
One of Maksimovs biggest opponents in a straight up flat sprint should be Saulo Lay. 73 FL, 60 HI, 66 RES, 79 SP, 81 ACC; he can reach the 3km zone without having lost too much energy, and is also very fast. Same goes for number 4, Kevin Peeters, who has similar stats but loses his top speed a little earlier (77 ACC). Peeters does have better support though, so it’s a close call.
Fifth in the list is Hans Dekkers. He’s a strong guy with 73 FL and great acceleration (82), followed by Ricki Nelson, who is fast (79 SP, 79 ACC) and has decent backup stats.
Then it’s time for two extremely quick but fragile guys: Marco Guillén (81/82) and Alois Kankovský (80/83) both have great SP and ACC, but suffer from low (67 and 65) FL stats. Still, I think they can both do well.
The last two spots were very hard to fill. There are some quick sprinters left who stand a very good chance in any sprint (like Clarke, Hochmann, Awang, Rizza, Abdallah, Jorgensen, Chicchi, Van Loocke and Haidar Anuar) and also some tough guys with a relatively fast sprint (like Cardoso, Dall’Antonia, Duque, Ciocan and Lasca). I chose the latter group because I suspect a good number of races with slopes above 3% in the final 15km, which kills the red bar of many of their competitors. Don’t underestimate a difference of 16 HI between for example Clarke and Cardoso. So 9 and 10 are Dall’Antonia and Cardoso.
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 19-01-2013 08:29
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Well, FL stat mathers more in PCM 12 than in others. Let's hope that doesn't screw over Guillén and Kankovski around. |
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| CountArach |
Posted on 19-01-2013 08:35
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I'd love to see Peeters performing well - he never actually raced for me before I sold him and I really want JK Cycling to have some bright moments this season.
Still enjoyying reading all this.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 19-01-2013 08:39
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Let's hope Roman justifies his wage...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 19-01-2013 19:04
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Cobbles
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Maes | Allianz-BMW | | 2 | Steegmans | Banco Nacional de Costa Rica | | 3 | Thomas | Boeing-Vivacom | | 4 | Coyot | Allianz-BMW | | 5 | Østergaard | Die Berg Komt Er | | 6 | Sentjens | Team Gazelle | | 7 | Vangenechten | Team Gazelle | | 8 | Grashev | Boeing-Vivacom | | 9 | Sys | Kappa - ENI | | 10 | Kopp | Banco Nacional de Costa Rica |
Three riders are going to completely dominate on the C2 cobblestones this season: Maes, Thomas and Steegmans. Not only are they much stronger than their competitors, they also have the best support teams. Allianz-BMW, Boeing-Vivacom and Banco Nacional de Costa Rica are by far the best cobble teams in the division.
Between these three I think Maes is the strongest and should be able to win solo more often than not. Second is Steegmans, because I think he can hang on to Thomas’ wheel and beat him in the sprint.
Then there is another group of three riders that are very similar in strength: Maes’ lieutenant Arnaud Coyot, Niki Ostergaard and Roy Sentjens, ranked in that order. They are all cheap riders who are excellently positioned to score a nice amount of points for their wage, because they should be able to beat any sub 72 average riders that the PCT teams might throw at C2.
The next couple of riders will have more problems with that, because they are all around 72 average themselves. The best of this PCT-fearing group of riders would be Jonas Vangenechten, Sentjens’ only cobble-buddy at Gazelle.
Number 8 on the list is Thomas’ assistant Martin Grashev, who is very good on the cobble sections, but has only 68 FL.
Klaas Sys, Kappa-ENI’s only cobble hope, is also quite decent and might surprise us in the longer races. (75 STA).
And number 10 is David Kopp. If he doesn’t have to work too hard for Steegmans, he might be able to hang on to a decent group and beat them in the sprint.
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| mb2612 |
Posted on 19-01-2013 19:26
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No Bakari? 
 [url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182] Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 19-01-2013 20:00
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I don't know much MG history; did he ever perform well?
81 CO is very good, but all his other stats are awful.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 04:37
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 19-01-2013 20:06
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I think it was meant as a joke. He will be more Bos and less Di Maggio, but you never now 
Glad to see Lay there as 3rd in the sprinter's list. I won't be racing a lot of sprinter's races though. I think you will only see him in two flat classics. Let's hope he can take some easy wins in stage races where the other strong sprinters don't start.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 19-01-2013 20:58
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Ah ok. We'll see.
I think many managers with a sprinter will be celebrating after reading your post.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 20-01-2013 17:42
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Hilly Tours with TT (and hilly TT's)
N.B.: Rohregger has been removed from these results because he has limited race days and is clearly better off riding in other types of races.
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Larsson | Vattenfall Cycling | | 2 | Westra | Team Gazelle | | 3 | Niemiec | Team Credexbank | | 4 | Joeaar | Ekspla-Cision | | 5 | Fonte | Team PrivatBank | | 6 | Martinez | Kenya Airways - Barclays | | 7 | Soto Pereira | Adira Isq-Project | | 8 | Flens | Die Berg Komt Er | | 9 | Irvine | Adira Isq-Project | | 10 | Marque | Kenya Airways - Barclays |
The race I had in my head while making this list is a short Tour (4-10 stages) with one Time-Trial of at least 25km, one pure and pretty tough hilly race and one hilly race in which the mountain stat plays a small role.
The fight for the first position is a close one, but in the end I don’t think Westra’s +2 HI, +1 RES doesn’t compensate for Larsson’s +1 TT, +4 FL, +8 CL.
Number 3, Niemiec, also has +8 CL and -2 HI against Westra, but in this case the +1 TT is on Westra’s side. Together with a nice +2 RES.
In fourth place we find Gert Joeaar, who is a slightly less good version of Westra, followed by Cesar Andre Fonte; ‘just’ 73 TT, but good in the hills.
Sixth, Yasmani Martinez, is primarily a climber who, due to the competitiveness of that category, might actually be better off riding these kind of races. He has a decent time-trial and will be hard to drop in the hills.
Seventh is Jorge Adelbo Soto Pereira; good time-trial, decent uphill/mountain.
Rick Flens has the best TT in the division, but will lose time in the hills. Still he might do well overall. Same goes for Martyn Irvine; will probably lose time in the hills, but makes up for it with great time-trial (and flat) skills.
Alejandro Marque is a lot like Soto Pereira. Will hang on in the hills and 74 TT is pretty good.
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| fintas |
Posted on 20-01-2013 17:55
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It's good to see two of my men in the top 10 ... Both can give the team some points at the end of the year
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 20-01-2013 18:00
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Yes, I think they should definitely be able to score some points. 
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| Mhaley45 |
Posted on 20-01-2013 20:38
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Re: Cobblers
Your rankings are very close to the top CT cobblers in the Cobbler Magazine #1. We both agree that the top 3 will dominate, but The Cobbler does not expect there to always be seperation in the shorter race distances in the C2. Maes' weakness is his sprinting and it will be hard for him to get away from Steegmans and Thomas before the final kilometer. If the three of the are still together in the last kilometers it will ber very hard for Maes to win.
I am impressed with your work and enjoyed reading all of them. If you ever want to write a cobble related article for The Cobbler just let me know -- maybe a race preview or two.
AMEXpc / PCT
=========================================
Team Manager of AMEX - Navigon
Editor of the Cobbler
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 22-01-2013 00:33
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You might be right about Maes having trouble getting away. I tend to underestimate the difference in quality needed to really get away from another rider. Will be interesting to see what happens.
Thank you! I like your magazine a lot, both idea and execution, and would love to write for it now and then. Let me know if you have something for me.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 23-01-2013 01:52
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Completely flat Tours with TT (and flat TT's)
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Flens | Die Berg Komt Er | | 2 | Larsson | Vattenfall Cycling | | 3 | Goddaert | Team Gazelle | | 4 | Westra | Team Gazelle | | 5 | Bret | Allianz-BMW | | 6 | Irvine | Adira Isq-Project | | 7 | Hacecký | Kappa - ENI | | 8 | Niemiec | Team Credexbank | | 9 | Rijntjes | Kenya Airways - Barclays | | 10 | Joeaar | Ekspla-Cision |
This category is pretty straightforward; who is the best time-trialist?
Flens (78TT) and Larsson (77TT, better backup stats) are clearly the strongest. Between them it will be quite tense, but I think Flens is just slightly better.
Then there's Gazelle duo Goddaert and Westra with both 76TT, before we go into a bunch of 75TT's (Bret, Irvine, Hacecky, Niemiec, Rijntjes, Joeaar) who are all very close to each other and are ranked by the quality of their back-up stats. The only 75TT missing out is Chris Barton, because of his bad skills on the flat.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 23-01-2013 02:05
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Mountain classics, stages and tours without TT
| Position | Rider | Team | | 1 | Arroyo | Martinez | | 2 | Marzano | Kappa - ENI | | 3 | Moreno | Iberia - Comunidad Valenciana | | 4 | Menchov | Barcelona - Estrella Damm | | 5 | Rohregger | Magna-Ryanair | | 6 | Colorado | Boeing-Vivacom | | 7 | Cabreira | Adira Isq-Project | | 8 | Mestre | Team PrivatBank | | 9 | Ndbri | Kenya Airways - Barclays | | 10 | Martinez | Kenya Airways - Barclays |
Who can ride up a large mountain quickest?
As previously mentioned, it's basically Arroyo versus Marzano. If the mountain has many steep parts it should be a great contest. If not, Arroyo probably wins.
Behind them I expect a tense battle between Menchov, Moreno and Rohregger, who I don't consider to be capable of dropping each other. That's why Moreno ranks highest of the three; he's by far the superior finisher.
After the first five there is a field of many riders that are so extremely close to each other in skill, that I resorted to a simple formula to rank them.
MO*0,8+RES*0,14+ACC*0,06 gives us the following 5 names: Colorado, Cabreira, Mestre, Ndbri and Martinez.
This concludes the series. Thank you for reading.
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