Although much PT, HC, and C1 racing has already transpired in the country during the early weeks of the 2026 season, now it is the turn for a C2-level spin through the countryside. The recent history of the race shows a script to be followed, clear as a sunny day in the land down under. There will be four sprints. There will be a time-trial. The winner of the time-trial will win the general classification.
But the simplicity of that story doesn’t mean there won’t be ample drama when the rubber hits the road, for both the mass sprints and the singular race of truth. An exceptionally strong field has assembled, and plenty of teams, riders, and managers will fancy a return on their race days.
The Route:
Although the tour is a sprinters paradise, that does not mean the route is completely devoid of incline. In fact the classified climbs of the route are not at all insubstantial, but their effect is muted by positioning: each falls in the first half of a given parcours and so will likely be the exclusive playground of the breakaway artists. And even though they will almost certainly be contested by the bunch, the finales of the first and second race days do incorporate distinctly uphill sprints as well. The opening finale is in particular a borderline climb that is likely go to one of the more versatile sprinters, rather than the one with the purest speed.
The first day of 124.2km from Geelong to Ballarat is bumpy throughout, with the most substantial climb coming near the midway point. Despite its short length, the day will demand some real resilience from the sprinters in the lead up to that aforementioned uphill kick to the line. The second day sees two proper climbs in the first half of the 158.3km course, before a mostly downhill false flat drag into the finish where the route again kicks back up in the final kilometer. The third day is the easiest of all, featuring only some minor speed bumps in the first half, before a just about pan-flat finishing circuit leads into the most traditional of bunch sprints at the end of 172.1km.
Then it is the turn of the time-trialists. The 20.8km route is more than long enough to create some meaningful time gaps, despite the mostly flat terrain. The winner will almost certainly be decided here, but there is one more day to go. The race ends with the fifth stage of 166.5kms of racing into a finish at the Mitchelton Winery. A substantial ascent at the halfway point gives way to a flat run in and yet another expected bunch kick to conclude the tour.
The Favorites:
Rider
Fl
TT
ST
RS
RC
PR
Powless
72
80
76
74
76
78
Lammertink
73
79
68
74
68
78
Onodera
74
78
75
74
71
75
Kukrle
72
78
74
74
70
79
Belevics
76
78
73
72
73
78
Politt
73
78
70
73
72
76
Gonzalez Salas
68
78
71
73
62
78
Sütterlin
69
78
70
74
62
78
Nyoni
69
77
67
72
69
77
Cardona
73
77
72
74
68
77
Howson
68
77
68
69
67
77
Vanderpool
68
77
63
65
61
76
Scotson
72
76
73
70
70
78
Jungels
70
76
71
72
64
76
Paillot
66
76
69
68
59
76
Yatsevich
66
76
70
75
61
76
Marchewka
64
76
72
74
72
76
There is no real difference between the set of overall favorites and the set of favorites on the day for the time-trial. A few of the sprinters are capable in prologues, but it seems unlikely any will be close enough to turn bonus seconds into genuine contention.
As such, top of the list is the superstar of the division, Powless of Banco Vaticano - Valkyrie. While by far the most likely champion, unlike on more traditional GC routes which mix climbing and time-trialing in fair measure, he is not quite so well-assured of victory here. Although the strongest time-trialist in the race, the gap between Powless and his present challengers under the clock is not insurmountable, and he has absolutely no room for error. Lacking any capacity for the sprints, an off day could doom him to watching somebody else take home the overall victory.
Of those challengers, Lammertink of JEWA - Tirol, Onodera of Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, Kukrle of IESE, Belevics of Tafjord - Kraft, Politt of Euskotren - Pays Basque, Gonzalez Salas of SEE Turtles, and Powless’ own teammate and defending champion Sütterlin look the strongest on paper. Each will enter the starting blocks with dreams of knocking the American down a peg and taking the win for themselves.
Meanwhile, SEE Turtles have also brought Nyoni, Cardona, and Howson, while Simba Cement have stacked up Vanderpool, Jungels, and Paillot. They'll be the favorites for victory in the team competition. The list of individual favorites is rounded out by Yatsevich of JEWA, Marchewka of IESE, and Scotson of Phillips - Hero down from the PCT.
The Sprint Teams:
Rider #1
Fl
SP
AC
Rider #2
Fl
SP
AC
Rider #3
Fl
SP
Stalberg
70
80
76
Page
73
78
78
Belevics
76
63
Boudat
73
79
78
Losch
72
77
77
Gough
72
75
Kennett
75
79
78
Oka
73
76
76
Culey
78
65
Bauhaus
74
78
75
Walscheid
72
78
77
El Sabbahi
77
78
77
Marin
74
75
75
Neilands
77
71
Aquilani
76
77
76
Hayakawa
70
76
74
Moschetti
70
75
Tivani
70
77
78
Alaphilippe
70
75
74
Granados
72
72
Sureda
73
77
79
Baterdene
74
76
77
Medvedev
77
71
Coutinho
69
76
75
Barbari
70
75
77
Darbinyan
72
76
74
Kelly
74
75
77
Consonni
72
75
75
Molano
70
75
77
Manninen
71
75
75
A sprint field of considerable depth has made the journey down under as well, and it’s no surprise with four stages and a green jersey on offer. Leading the way are three of the top CT sprinters, Stalberg of Tafjkord - Kraft, Boudat of JEWA Tirol, and Kennett of SEE Turtles. Each has come accompanied by a strong leadout train, and we should expect their teams to work hard to control the racing and deliver them with a clear run to the line.
Challenging those trains will be a group of teams led by Karthago with El Sabbahi, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko with Aquilani, IncaLine with Tivani, and Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh with Sureda. Each of those leaders has capable leadouts of their own, but they might nevertheless decide on any given day to instead surf wheels depending on how the build up to the finish plays out.
Of the true pirates, by far the strongest are the pair of Bauhaus and Walscheid from Billstedt - Horn, but Air New Zealand - Prada, Euskotren - Pays Basque, the Brandt Cycling Team, Parmalat - Croatia, and even the development Team Trululu have also brought one or more riders who will certainly look to mix it up in the bunch kicks.
Had hoped to start this race with Onodera a favorite for the win, but with Powless (unexpectedly, to me) here a podium is maybe more reasonable of a goal. Will be satisfied with anything T5. But he should very much be in the mix, and stranger things have happened.
Meanwhile, it'll be the first run out for the full Onodera/Turek -> Moschetti -> Hayakawa -> Aquilani train, which should be very strong. Whether Aquilani can consistently deliver at the end of that remains to be seen, but the harder sprints in particular should suit him well. And after Tachira, I'm ready for anything.
After Tachira I'm not expecting anything from Sureda. Will be interesting to see if he sprints better without leadout, even though I consider it close to optimal for him.
I am hoping for a top 10 in the GC however, and a podium in the team classification.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
First time seeing how our sprint train works. Got a little more faith in Marin after Tachira at least. No huge goals anyway but hoping for some okay points to justify coming.
Pressures on Powless to take the GC. Looks like another huge scoring race for SEE Turtles too.
Herald Sun Tour 
No huge goals anyway but hoping for some okay points to justify coming.
