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Vuelta a Espana - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 17-04-2026 02:03
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 4125
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Vuelta a Espana
The riders have gathered in Mijas, in Málaga, on the far southern coast of Spain for start of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana. The race’s first edition in its new late season slot on the calendar.
A full preview of the parcours from WJ can be found here
The short version is hills and mountains and mountains, oh my. So we’ll start with one of the neglected groups the sprinters. With just 5 flat rated stages and one of those coming after 20 brutal days and another featuring a nasty climb in the last 5ks it might be tough for the sprinters to even take the points jersey, particularly given one of the names among the GC contenders.
But a few brave souls came to try.
| Rider | FL | RS | ST | SP | AC |  Philipsen | 74 | 70 | 74 | 81 | 80 |  Kragh Andersen | 76 | 72 | 68 | 80 | 75 |  Banaszek | 74 | 73 | 71 | 79 | 81 |  Minali | 73 | 74 | 70 | 79 | 79 |  Contreras | 72 | 75 | 73 | 78 | 80 |  Prasad | 74 | 74 | 73 | 78 | 79 |  Kulikovskiy | 73 | 73 | 70 | 78 | 79 |  Afewerki | 72 | 69 | 76 | 78 | 79 |  Szarka | 77 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 78 |  Scott | 72 | 71 | 72 | 78 | 78 |
Philipsen is the outstanding name on this list as Cedevita clearly had some counter-scheduling in mind by sending their #1 sprinter to the race. Philipsen also is solid in the hills and has outstanding recovery so he should be in a good position to survive to stage 21. His lead out isn’t the strongest but he does have cobbles star Siric and some solid roulers in Poljanec and Fedorov to back him up.
The other top name is Tinkoff’s Banaszek who won stage 21 of this race back in 2022. He also won two stages of the Tour de France last year, holding the Green Jersey most of the race only to lose it Kaden Groves on the Champs. In this race Tinkoff are clearly more interested in a run at the team’s jersey than the points jersey as they have lots of climbers but nobody approximating a lead out man.
Kragh Andersen would have been a top name a few years ago and the rest of the field look like the favorites list from the flat stage of Tachira. Although that might be unkind to Prasad who has 3 stage wins in this race and pulled off a surprising green jersey win in 2023, he is back with Aker where he scored that big win. Aker have shown some faith in him by sending Sarreau as a leadout. We may also see Valter being used in that role.
The second neglected skill set in this race is time trialing. Just one 10k flat(ish) test. Top contenders for that include:
| Rider | FL | TT | PR | RC |  Ocampo | 70 | 80 | 78 | 75 | | Mano | 71 | 80 | 77 | 74 | | Oliveira | 70 | 79 | 79 | 67 |  Tanfield | 73 | 79 | 79 | 71 | | Pelikan | 75 | 78 | 77 | 70 | | Munton | 67 | 78 | 77 | 76 |  Kiriakidis | 68 | 78 | 76 | 74 | | Geoghegan Hart | 70 | 78 | 76 | 75 | | Ioannidis | 67 | 78 | 76 | 73 | | Onodera | 74 | 78 | 75 | 71 | | Matsuda | 76 | 77 | 79 | 67 |  Plapp | 72 | 77 | 78 | 76 | | De Bod | 73 | 77 | 77 | 71 | | Marryatt | 71 | 77 | 77 | 67 |  Heidemann | 72 | 77 | 75 | 71 |
Many of these guys are also strong prologue riders which could be important. Given their TT depth King Power and EA Vesuvio clearly felt they could spend some resources on this stage. The biggest GC name on this list is Geoghegan Hart but Plapp should also be competitive in the overall. There are also a few riders who aren’t as strong in the longer TTs but who could thrive here, most notably some guy called Herklotz.
Having dealt with the side shows we move on to the main event, the GC contender.
| Rider | MT | MM | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC | | Herklotz | 84 | 83 | 81 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 76 |
Herklotz is the overwhelming favorite. A win would be his 3rd in the Vuelta (with ‘23 and ‘18), giving him the most by any rider. If he has a weakness, it is in his team which features five solid climbers in Zimmermann, Schiffer, Schinnagel, Egger, and Stork but no super-domestiques. Although Puma will be proud of the fact Herklotz is backed by an entirely German team (Also of note ELCO fields 7 of 8 riders from Greece with the 8th a Cypriot and Tinkoff have 6 of 8 from Russia).
The next set of riders will likely be competing for the scraps left by Herklotz and the good news for the neutral is the battle for the two podium spots seems wide open.
| Rider | MT | MM | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC | | Herklotz | 84 | 83 | 81 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 76 |  Dombrowski | 82 | 78 | 73 | 77 | 75 | 75 | 72 |  Areruya | 81 | 81 | 81 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 76 |  Godoy | 81 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 75 |  Latour | 81 | 78 | 75 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 74 | | Carthy | 81 | 78 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 69 | | Aular | 81 | 77 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 69 |  Wellens | 80 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 73 | 65 | | Giannoutsos | 80 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 78 | 75 | 68 |  Champoussin | 79 | 79 | 79 | 76 | 76 | 77 | 76 | | Schlegel | 79 | 78 | 77 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 75 | | Plapp | 79 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 68 | | Geoghegan Hart | 79 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 69 |
The biggest names on this list are 2022 winner (and 3rd last year) Dombrowski and Rwandan superstar Areruya. Dombrowski will be under pressure to pull his team clear of relegation and while he is the second best climber in the race his weaker medium mountain and recovery could be a handicap. Dombrowski does bring two really strong support riders in Carboni and Warchol, they could be asked to control the race or they might be the ones causing chaos.
Areruya is a complete rider. It is a testament to how strong the favorite is that the Rwandan is better in only one stat (Recovery 79 vs 78). Normally Areruya would be the favorite in all the punchy finishes but in this race he will be fighting Herklotz for every one. If only one of them were here they might be the Green jersey favorite but they could end up splitting those points. Areruya has two nice lieutenants in Fouche and longtime Evonik domestique Blums.
Latour is probably the other top contender for the podium with his strong recovery. If the hilly stages prove selective Champoussin could be competitive or he could be really dangerous from the breakaways.
There are a handful of other riders who aren’t quite as strong in the mountains but could contest the hilly finishes and/or put together a KOM challenge and/or breakaway fueled GC challenge. They include:
| Rider | MT | MM | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC | | McCarthy | 66 | 74 | 81 | 79 | 74 | 68 | 73 | | Valter | 78 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 78 | | Aranburu | 77 | 79 | 80 | 70 | 79 | 74 | 71 | | Buchmann | 75 | 78 | 80 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 71 |
McCarthy is probably focused on the early punchy climbs. The other 3 have the skills to pursue any number of paths although Aranburu might have responsibilities to his leader, Carthy.
On top of those there are numerous other strong climbers in the race who will be looking for the breaks, names we will expect to see (that haven’t already been mentioned) include:
| Rider | MT | MM | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC | | Leemreize | 79 | 78 | 76 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 72 | | Lopez Nolasco | 79 | 75 | 71 | 72 | 71 | 75 | 70 | | Mas | 78 | 78 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 77 | 77 | | Frankiny | 78 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 77 | 75 | | Lopez | 78 | 77 | 76 | 71 | 72 | 75 | 78 | | Roson | 78 | 77 | 76 | 67 | 70 | 77 | 74 | | Chaiyasombat | 78 | 76 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 75 | 74 | | Eenkhoorn | 78 | 76 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 80 | 71 | | Rodriguez | 78 | 75 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 71 | | Gregaard | 78 | 75 | 71 | 78 | 75 | 75 | 70 | | Vingegaard | 78 | 74 | 70 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 66 |  De Plus | 77 | 78 | 79 | 74 | 73 | 71 | 72 |
A full starlist of 192 riders take on the race, Spark and DeNA represent the PCT.
Startlist
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 17-04-2026 02:10
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7644
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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First GT and really excited to see how we go! Really only here for the experience but keen to see how Carlos can go GC or U25 rankings wise. Same with Afewerki. If he can make it to the end he could even bag some nice results in the sprints!
Thanks for the great preview and good luck everyone!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 17-04-2026 03:51
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16749
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 15138.70
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Thank you for the great preview!
For us, the goal is a GC top 10. That's by far our primary concern, as it's our GT goal. If we can get it, we have 3/5 goals passed with another near miss this year. If we miss it, it's 2/5 goals, and suddenly it's looking like it's gonna be harder to train Skjelmose than we hoped.
The route obviously couldn't be any better for Carthy, given the complete lack of TT km's and hard mountain stages. We've also pretty much brought our A-squad for the mountains here outside Skjelmose, with both Aranburu and Gregaard on hand to protect him. The issue, of course, is the competition. Every climber who can't time trial circled this race on their calendar, and it's unclear how Carthy will compete. Especially with the top puncheurs here too, it seems like Carthy could end up anywhere from 5-15th relatively easily, especially considering that some breakaway guys will end up in the top 10 over him. We just need him to get 10th, which we couldn't in the Giro.
The side plot for us in this race will be AKA. He still has Philly after this, but in a lot of ways it's something of a last hurrah for him. He's as bad of a climber as he's always been, so the chances of making it to the end to contest the final in Madrid or the green jersey are pretty low. The goal for him is a stage win to remember him for. He can finish outside the top 50 every other flat stage if he gets that.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-04-2026 04:56
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Team Leader
Posts: 5656
Joined: 18-10-2017
PCM$: 200.00
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We are all in on Philipsen here so I'm not looking forward to watching us botch every flat stage 
Thanks for the preview and the upcoming reports 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ezeefreak |
Posted on 17-04-2026 05:30
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Domestique
Posts: 712
Joined: 06-07-2009
PCM$: 300.00
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Also our first GT ever and probably the last for a couple seasons also  All I can hope for is to be part of some breakaways and letting our colors shine there. Besides from that looking at the team we have there its solely for our young riders to get experience for their future development.
Overall we seam to have a clear favorite in it. Good Luck to everyone and thanks for the preview and the upcomming reports!
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| Heine |
Posted on 17-04-2026 06:04
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4658
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Great preview Ulrich! Looking forward to this
Of course this is Silvio's to loose, can't see him do that... Too bad his managers is gone, but I bet he will be a popular and rich man over the summer
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 17-04-2026 06:17
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2013
Joined: 07-02-2009
PCM$: 300.00
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It's been a while since we've had a good result in a race and I'm hopeful we will have some luck in this one. I'm feeling good about Godoy's chances for a GC top 5 in this field and I will hope that Stockli can make it into the breakaway later in the race. There is no doubt Herklotz should take the win but it will be interesting to see how well Puma can control the race and how his day by day results will look at the end. Thanks for the preview.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 17-04-2026 07:36
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World Champion
Posts: 13756
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
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Champoussin our big card to play here. Hopefully, van der Kooij can mix it up in the sprints.
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| ember |
Posted on 17-04-2026 07:53
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Team Leader
Posts: 7176
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
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Well, well, well. Excited for this final Grand Tour of the season, especially as it is late in the season, making it a big highlight at this point.
This is also the GT we by far have the biggest hopes for, as I hope the hilly stages give Valter the chance to fight and shine early. Herklotz and Areruya makes for very difficult opposition, but he has proven again and again in the classics that he is competitive again both. Fingers crossed he treats it as several one day races from the start. If so, we should be in for an actionpacked start. Our main goal must be to be very visible, basically on all stages except the TTs. At least I hope Valter is treated as a stage and breakaway rider, and not a GC rider, but we shall see!
Thank you for the in-depth preview, UU. Looking forward to the reports  |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 17-04-2026 11:35
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| knockout |
Posted on 17-04-2026 09:26
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8385
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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Very curious how this plays out. With the race being so late in the season, it will be even more obvious which ranking battles to watch.
Evonik is here with double leadership of Plapp and Eenkhoorn. Both should be capable of a top 15 GC at least but ideally we can place one of them quite a bit higher and/or get some good stage results too. Plapp also needs to beat Rodriguez for the youth jersey.
Areruya making a rare GT is very exciting to watch. Really hope his move will be worth it with a podium looking reasonably possible here on a perfect route.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 17-04-2026 09:30
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3944
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Thank you for the nice preview, Ulrich!
I feer Aular could really struggle on this terrain, but a stage win is still the goal. Ideally with a top-10 in the final GC, like he did in the Giro. I assumed Aular was our best card to win a stage, but looking at the time trialists, Ocampo has a chance at well. And maybe Lopez Nolasco or Carcueva can surprise us pleasantly as well in that regard.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-04-2026 09:32
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15151
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 11500.00
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Alright, we (just) made the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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