|
Tour of Northern Europe - Discussion
|
| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 27-04-2025 23:31
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3914
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
|
Welcome to the 2025 Tour of Northern Europe. This year the route gets a complete rework, France and the Netherlands join Northern Europe while Germany gets dropped. The only stage to survive is last year’s stage 3, which is now the opening stage, taking the riders from Heers to Bergen op Zoom. Even it changes a little now being about 15k shorter. After that it is all new routes although much of the terrain is the same. The sprinters will have a little more glory as Stage 2 in the Netherlands is also flat so they should control the leader’s jersey for a few days.
Then the cobbled road stage, 158k from Bruges to Oudenaarde, nearly all the cobbles come in the last 40k with a series of cobbled bergs. More cobbles the next day as Stage 4 is now the TT. The race moving to France as Lille plays host. As before it is about 50% cobbles, but it is much shorter at just 14k and with Stage 3 having likely dictated the GC the race seems generally less favorable to the TTers.
Then there is another flat stage into Vise before attention turns to the puncheurs. Two tough punchy stages one in Belgium and the other Luxembourg wrap up the race. It will be a contest to see if the cobblers can hold their advantage and if neutral fans are lucky the race will still be in balance as the riders contest multiple ascents to Bourscheid on Stage 7.
Last year’s winner  Cosnefroy is back but with the changes to the route he may be hard pressed to repeat. The TT-focused riders have won 3 of the last 4 editions, Cosnefroy plus Tom Wirtgen and Nelson Oliveira.  Wirtgen returns this year. Michal Kwiatkowski won in 2022 and is probably the only winner to be more of a climber. Before that it was mostly cobblers, only one of them is back this year in 2019 winner  Wisniowski
The race will also be pivotal in the PT battle with Tinkoff and Gazelle at the top and Grieg and Rabobank towards the bottom all key players in this race.
We will look at 3 groups of GC contenders, centered around those strong in each main discipline (TT, HI, CO). First the TTers who can survive the hills and also ride the cobbles.
There are 27 riders with a TT value greater than 75. Of these the 9 listed below have 135 or higher combined HI and CO. The rest are excluded on the basis that they won’t be able to keep up on either the cobblers or the hills (or both). Most of these riders fit the Cosnefroy mode of strong TT’ers who can also survive the hills and cobbles, this combination has been a key to success in this race and many of these riders have thrived in past editions.  Van Baarle was 2nd last year and  Cavagna has 3 top 5 finishes although he was only 13th last year.  Kung has won the PCT version of this race, the Benelux Challenge.
Two names in this group stand out as different kind of riders.  Anderberg should also be strong on the cobbles and will be a favorite to win the TT, the challenge for him will be stages 6 and 7. 2021 winner Wirtgen is back and his challenge is the reverse of Anderberg’s, he will need to hold on, on the cobbles on S3, hope being the best traditional-TTer in the field protects him on S4 and then look to thrive on S6 and S7. The one warning on those last stages for him is if it comes down to a battle for bonus seconds, he will be dealing with a lot of punchier riders.
| Rider | FL | HI | TT | CO | AC | RS | | Wirtgen | 73 | 75 | 84 | 65 | 72 | 75 | | Cosnefroy | 76 | 71 | 78 | 69 | 69 | 81 | | Brunel | 75 | 71 | 78 | 66 | 65 | 78 | | Van Baarle | 76 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 76 | | Kung | 73 | 73 | 77 | 72 | 71 | 72 | | O'Brien | 75 | 75 | 77 | 61 | 69 | 77 | | Anderberg | 78 | 69 | 76 | 80 | 73 | 76 | | Cavagna | 77 | 74 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 74 | | Lampawog | 76 | 68 | 76 | 76 | 68 | 75 |
The second group of contenders are those who will look to thrive in the hills on the last two stages. A similar approach is applied here, the 23 riders with over 75 Hill were further narrowed based on TT+CO, with a cut off of 134 this time. Nine names meet this criteria:
| Rider | FL | HI | TT | CO | AC | RS |  De Bie | 72 | 83 | 71 | 67 | 74 | 75 |  Stannard | 73 | 81 | 67 | 67 | 78 | 76 | | Schmid | 72 | 79 | 68 | 69 | 79 | 78 |  Gerts | 77 | 78 | 67 | 82 | 70 | 80 | | Van der Poel | 73 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 77 | 77 | | Bettiol | 72 | 77 | 68 | 66 | 77 | 75 |  Pidcock | 78 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 81 | 78 |  Malecki | 73 | 76 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 75 | | Aleotti | 74 | 76 | 74 | 62 | 75 | 77 |
De Bie is the long-time flag bearer in this bucket with his solid TT and cobbles ability keeping him in contention to try and make a difference on the hilly stages. This strategy has had limited success in the past, his best finish was 5th in 2020 and he could find himself well down before the races reaches the climbs this year. As the best puncheur in the field he will want to make those stages hard and he has two good allies in Van der Poel and Bettiol. Stannard and Schmid are similar riders to De Bie and will also be looking to make the hills competitive.
The most unique rider on this list is Gerts, who is one of the best cobblers in the field. On this paper this race should suit him, but he has never finished better than 10th with his weak TT being his Achilles heel. But the shorter TT should really help him, particularly if it brings in his stronger prologue skill.
Finally, this list includes the two great all-rounders of the peloton - Pidcock and Malecki. Pidcock dominated the Benelux challenge last year, he has the ability to stay in touch on all terrains and is also a strong finisher. Malecki is a slightly weaker variant of Pidcock. Both of them will want only moderately selective stages.
There are more competent cobblers in the race than the other two categories, with 38 riders being above 75 cobbles so the cut off was set 1 higher. Of those, 17 have at least 135 HI+TT. For Anderberg and Gerts this is their second list as they both have a second strong skill. Many of the remainder are traditional cobblers with solid ability in the hills and average to weak TT skills. The best all rounders include most of the biggest names on the list: Wisniowski,  Van Hooydonck,  Per, and  Polanc. Wisniowski has the advantage of being strong in the prologue.
 Pedersen is the best cobbler but a little weaker in the hills than the rest. If TT skill does have less impact, then many of these riders could be within seconds of the lead going into the final stages.
| Rider | FL | HI | TT | CO | AC | RS | | Pedersen | 77 | 69 | 69 | 83 | 77 | 80 | | Gerts | 77 | 78 | 67 | 82 | 70 | 80 | | Wisniowski | 79 | 70 | 73 | 82 | 75 | 75 | | Van Hooydonck | 73 | 71 | 72 | 82 | 72 | 74 | | Per | 79 | 70 | 72 | 82 | 74 | 75 | | Anderberg | 78 | 69 | 76 | 80 | 73 | 76 | | Tiller | 74 | 70 | 67 | 79 | 73 | 75 | | Theuns | 71 | 73 | 64 | 79 | 74 | 71 |  Sulimov | 73 | 70 | 65 | 79 | 71 | 71 | | Polanc | 72 | 73 | 70 | 78 | 75 | 73 | | Gaday | 71 | 75 | 65 | 78 | 73 | 72 |  Siric | 78 | 71 | 65 | 78 | 71 | 80 | | Menten | 72 | 73 | 67 | 77 | 68 | 76 | | Meiler | 74 | 74 | 64 | 77 | 71 | 70 | | Stokbro | 75 | 69 | 66 | 77 | 71 | 73 | | Salzmann | 73 | 71 | 64 | 77 | 71 | 76 |  Boros | 73 | 73 | 62 | 77 | 66 | 69 |
In addition to all those listed above there are a variety of riders who are very strong in one discipline, who could thrive if that aspect of the race is dominant. Spengler, Senechal, and  Altur are all strong in the cobbles but pretty weak in the TT and only moderate in the hills.
Skujins, Ardila, Vansevenant,  Higuita, and  Romo are all excellent puncheurs but mediocre to bad in the other disciplines.
The strong TTers not mentioned are generally atrocious on the cobbles but Lammertink is one who might do a little better.
There are also 3 stages for the sprinters and a chance to wear the leader’s jersey although the sprint field isn’t that deep for a PT race.  Philipsen is clearly the best sprinter and could also challenge for the GC in the right circumstances. The rest of the field includes:
| Rider | FL | SP | AC | RS | | Philipsen | 74 | 81 | 80 | 70 | | Thijssen | 75 | 79 | 81 | 70 | | Banaszek | 74 | 79 | 81 | 73 | | Gross | 74 | 79 | 79 | 75 | | Hayakawa | 73 | 79 | 79 | 68 | | Bol | 76 | 79 | 77 | 77 | | Rajovic | 72 | 78 | 82 | 76 | | Sanikwathi | 72 | 78 | 78 | 67 | | Nommela | 72 | 78 | 78 | 70 | | Marin | 74 | 78 | 78 | 73 | | Pedersen | 77 | 78 | 77 | 80 | | Lander | 76 | 78 | 75 | 70 | | Silva | 75 | 77 | 78 | 70 | | Forssell | 69 | 77 | 77 | 74 | | Garcia Cortina | 76 | 77 | 76 | 72 | | Dekker | 77 | 77 | 76 | 77 |
After Philipsen the next strongest are Thijssen and Banaszek, the latter coming off a huge Tour. After those two a big group of fairly similar sprinters although Rajovic also had a strong tour. Pedersen towards the bottom of the list but if things go well he could pick up some bonus seconds.
Philipsen also has Garcia Cortina for the lead out and some sprint roulers to help with the chase.
23 teams and 184 riders will take to the start.
Startlist
 
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
| |
|
|
| ember |
Posted on 27-04-2025 23:45
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7057
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
|
Always a race that fills me with great, great excitement! This year is just the same, as we go again with a team I'm hoping can challenge for the GC with Anderberg.
Though, having learnt my lessons from previous editions, it looks really difficult for cobblers in general and also him, despite the TT advantage he hopefully can get. If Chrono d'Arenberg and the relatively small gaps there is anything to go by, I doubt we will see significant gaps in the TT. Then it all comes down to the AI and how it balances the different GC riders and their priorities. Will we get a selective cobbles stage? Certainly hope so! If not, this should be for TTers who can defend on the hills, which almost all of them can in such a race, I think. There's obviously also Pidcock. Maybe he has the X factor to shake things up on the cobbles or hills in addition to his okayish TT?
Really curious to see how it plays out this time around! Wirtgen must be the favourite for me, even with the cobbles coming first, as I fear we get a rather passive stage. If it goes aggressive, there's every chance to get properly into the mix, Anderberg! Maybe even also for the GC, at least to try to defend a top 10 or so on the final two stages.
Thank you for the preview, and looking a lot forward to the reports, UU! |
| |
|
|
| tastasol |
Posted on 28-04-2025 00:47
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
Joined: 11-09-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
A possibly very important race. I have a clear hope that Pedersen and the more hilly cobblers on our team might do something, but it's a race that's probably not that suited for us. Arenberg also leads me to think that the cobbles won't be super important, but we certainly hope for a selective race on stage 3.
With Gerts one of the favourites, it will also be a crucial race if we want to survive in the division. Interesting days ahead, thanks for the preview, Ulrich.
|
| |
|
|
| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-04-2025 01:21
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16552
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 13638.70
|
Per didn't have it here last year, but Wisniowski did. So there's always a shot. We're gonna need a lot of luck here to have any shot at the top 10. Our best shot is Per, so we've made sure to avoid any distractions with other riders. Not a ton of cobbles to get it done, but we'll do our best.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
| |
|
|
| jandal7 |
Posted on 28-04-2025 04:04
|
World Champion
Posts: 11621
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1120.00
|
Been waiting to see Pidcock race for us here since I signed him as a neo-pro. As a L3 at cycleYorkshire he was just outside the Top 10, now he's back at maxed and very excited to see what he can do 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 28-04-2025 06:10
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Welcome to the 2025 Tour of Northern Europe. This year the route gets a complete rework, France and the Netherlands join Northern Europe while Germany gets dropped.
 
Btw, According to stage names, the last stage starts in Germany. Not that it changes anything. Otherwise an outstanding preview!
The reroute could be helpful for Polanc but its still very much a gamble for what happens here. Can be great, can be terrible, can be everything in between. Which really makes this race special as most other races you have a much clearer idea how well it suits you
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
|
| alexkr00 |
Posted on 28-04-2025 08:54
|
World Champion
Posts: 13560
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
|
We are in a hole at the moment and one way to climb up from there would be if Gerts finally gets a good result here.
I wouldn't say the TTs were the reason for his poor results in the past, but the way the hilly and cobbled stages played out and how the game decided to treat Gerts in them. Still, the shorter TT is definitely not hurting his chances.
|
| |
|
|
| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-04-2025 09:02
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6174
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Sending Stannard here is a very spicy managerial decision (let's avoid derrogatory terms, shall we?). Can't wait! Thanks for the preview, UU!
|
| |
|
|
| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 28-04-2025 10:53
|
Team Leader
Posts: 5568
Joined: 12-06-2013
PCM$: 500.00
|
Really hoping we can "end" our season on a high with a big result from Cosnefroy. Going to be very difficult for him to repeat his heroics from last year and win it but I have fingers crossed for a strong performance! Also hoping that between Gaday in the hilly cobbles and Thijssen in the potential sprints, we may have some stage results up our sleeve too.
Thank you for the preview and good luck to all!
|
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 19:37
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| roturn |
Posted on 28-04-2025 13:02
|
Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
|
Basically here for Vansevenant and Van Hooydonck double leadership, which in the past often resulted in a good GC placement by the puncheur and maybe a stage win by the cobbler. 
Really no idea what to expect here but in the big hope for nice points per race day. |
| |
|
|
| Nemolito |
Posted on 28-04-2025 13:08
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3837
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
|
If the AI looks at the puncheurs to win the GC, this could be a vital race for us in the survival campaign. But need small to no gaps on the cobbles and ITT for that. Would be nice to finally see Marin do well in a sprint in his last race of the season 
Thanks for the great preview, Ulrich!
|
| |
|
|
| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-04-2025 15:29
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
Joined: 20-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
Very curious what type of rider will do well in this edition. We have no true GC favourite in the team, but we do have most bases covered in terms of terrain.
Super hard to predict whether we will do well. Fingers crossed, because we desperately need the points.
Always excited for this race!
|
| |
|
|
| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-04-2025 22:38
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
|
Really looking forward to this race
Well, I might change my mind tomorrow already, given that Bol is our sprinter here, but maybe, maybe he still gets at least one good result this year...
Generally speaking, actually rather (positively from my PoV) surprised by the startlist, definitely expected more sprinters and puncheurs given this new profile.
It looks like we're among the contenders on every terrain, which will hopefully lead to most of our team being attentive throughout the race. In which case we could get a really good result by several riders. But it can also go very wrong, obviously...
Not sure who should actually be our leader. In previous years, it'd have been Küng, no question. And I hope he can still do well. But in particular the final stage could be very selective if the best puncheurs decide to make the race really hard. In that sense, I'm hoping for a collaboration of Mauro with the likes of Vansevenant, Stannard, De Bie, Higuita, Gerts... Maybe Mauro could even try something on the cobbled stage, as he did in Macskako, or last year in Viana do Castelo. Should suit him.
Pidcock still has to be the favourite, just the best allrounder here. And looking at Portugal in particular, but also other races, apparently even a better climber/puncheur than Schmid according to PCM ^^ Will take 2nd behind him any time, though
Thanks for the great in-depth preview, good luck to all!
|
| |
|
|
| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 29-04-2025 01:43
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3914
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
|
knockout wrote:
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Welcome to the 2025 Tour of Northern Europe. This year the route gets a complete rework, France and the Netherlands join Northern Europe while Germany gets dropped.
 
Btw, According to stage names, the last stage starts in Germany. Not that it changes anything. Otherwise an outstanding preview!
The reroute could be helpful for Polanc but its still very much a gamble for what happens here. Can be great, can be terrible, can be everything in between. Which really makes this race special as most other races you have a much clearer idea how well it suits you
I chose this stage becaue I thought it got us into Germany but after I had looked at it more I realized there is also an Eschweiler in Luxembourg and looking at the stage I think it is more likely the town referenced.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
| |
|
|
| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-04-2025 02:42
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16552
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 13638.70
|
Well, Forssell at least was mildly involved in the sprint. Can't ask for much more .
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
| |
|
|
| SotD |
Posted on 29-04-2025 05:32
|
World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
|
Already pressure on the title run with another great result from the Tinkoff sprinter.
|
| |
|
|
| alexkr00 |
Posted on 29-04-2025 07:38
|
World Champion
Posts: 13560
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
|
A very nice surprise to see young Kooij in the top 10.
|
| |
|
|
| Nemolito |
Posted on 29-04-2025 07:52
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 3837
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
|
One point scored by Marin, one point closer to survival
Thank you for the nice report, Ulrich!
|
| |
|
|
| ember |
Posted on 29-04-2025 08:18
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7057
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
|
Räim joiking the sprint was a positive surprise. A top 10 is a top 10, after all Congratulations on the win, beagle. And with Banaszek in second, it’s almost as if the top teams understand what is at stake. |
| |
|
|
| roturn |
Posted on 29-04-2025 09:07
|
Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
|
Nothing to go for in stage 1 for my team.
I guess, seeing positioning, Vansevenant is indeed marked as leader here. so ideally, he will place himself well in the cobble stage and then be as aggressive as ever in the hill stages. |
| |
|
Tour of Northern Europe 
