8 managers provided CT rankings heading into the start of the season with a wide range of methodologies. In all CT rankings, we only include the final rankings of a manager, even when there are sub-rankings within their predictions (because those subrankings are already factored in). Many thanks to all who contributed rankings to help us prepare for the season and spice up the conversation - please give them a look and support if you haven't already
Upon first glance, it is easy to see two major trends. A select number of teams have consistent top of table rankings OR bottom of table rankings; while the vast majority of teams hold a high range of expectations from promotion to bottom 5. This shows us just how wide open the majority of the CT field is this year with a few predicted exceptions.
Looking at the combined rankings, Newton Foundation p/b Zwift takes the top spot! (but no one needed a full post to know that). Gjensidige should be expected in the top positions as well and comes through as a clear #2 by both median and mean predictions. Team Würth MODYF is the final clear promotion candidate when combining both median and mean predictions.
Past the top three, there's a few pockets of teams best discussed together. The battle from 4th - 9th is a measly 2.4 average score difference. Simba Cement-Tanga Fresh and Duvel-Tsingtao are the clear leaders of this group, but the differences are not enough to automatically slot them into promotion, especially when Duvel-Tsingtao has a 13 ranking difference from their top expectation to their last.
Cervelo and Trans Looney Tunes also stand out as two teams with a 2nd place expectation to their name, but with much wider ranges of rankings. The sit as the clearest teams to challenge for promotion. Spark Team NZ is a challenging team to evaluate due to the range in scoring but high median ranking. We'll see whether the signing of George Bennett truly makes the expected change. Zain-Omantel holds up this group with a reliance on Carapaz to move up.
There's a second major mid-table pocket off teams between Ethiopian Airlines and Euskotren-Pays Basque. All four of these teams have major red flags in their predictions, but have at least one manager predicting a promotion finish.
Finally, there is a bit of consensus around the final teams in the division. Still each has some significant upside and is well positioned for a push up the table, at least next year if this year doesn't work out.
Again, 8 managers provided PCT rankings heading into the season with a number of different strategies. In all PCT rankings, we only include the final rankings of a manager, even when there are sub-rankings within their predictions (because those subrankings are already factored in). Many thanks to all who contributed rankings to help us prepare for the season and spice up the conversation - please give them a look and support if you haven't already.
Compiled Rankings
SC
jph27
L147
UU
red
KO
Abhi
Cr14
Benetton Bimex Cycling
7
9
12
19
18
17
15
14
Bralirwa - Cegeka
4
10
11
15
6
9
18
6
DK Žalgiris
9
11
9
6
5
8
6
10
Ekoi - Le Creuset
17
23
19
21
20
19
12
19
ELCO - ABEA
2
1
2
1
3
4
1
1
Everesting
12
18
17
20
12
14
24
12
Indosat Ooredoo
5
6
5
7
8
5
8
5
ISA - Hexacta
8
3
4
2
9
2
5
4
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
22
21
23
22
21
22
19
22
Kraftwerk Man Machine
20
15
16
8
16
18
7
16
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
6
4
1
3
1
3
2
7
Llapi-Vita
21
20
14
23
23
23
21
23
Lotto-Caloi
16
8
20
13
19
13
13
21
Manada Coyote
24
22
22
17
17
21
22
20
McCormick Pro Cycling
18
7
6
10
14
12
20
13
Minions
15
12
10
9
7
6
10
8
Podium Ambition
23
24
24
24
24
24
23
24
Sauber Petronas Racing
13
14
18
16
13
15
16
17
Sony - Force India
3
2
3
5
2
1
3
2
Specialized
11
13
13
11
11
10
14
11
Tafjord Kraft
19
17
21
18
22
20
9
18
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
10
19
15
14
15
16
7
15
Team UBS
14
16
7
12
4
11
4
9
Tryg - Eni
1
5
8
4
10
7
11
3
My first take away from the pure rankings is how many teams have a very tight spread within their expectations. This ranges from teams at the very top of the rankings - for example ELCO - ABEA, to the very bottom of the rankings - for example Podium Ambition. Still, there are even some mid-table teams like Specialized who hold a very tight range of expectations, no matter which teams are slated above or below them. Overall, these rankings feel much more divided than CT by a significant margin.
Combined Rankings
Mean
Median
Range
ELCO - ABEA
1.875
1.5
3
Sony - Force India
2.625
2.5
4
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
3.375
3
6
ISA - Hexacta
4.625
4
7
Indosat Ooredoo
6.125
5.5
3
Tryg - Eni
6.125
6
10
DK Žalgiris
8
8.5
6
Minions
9.625
9.5
9
Team UBS
9.625
10
12
Bralirwa - Cegeka
9.875
9.5
14
Specialized
11.75
11
4
McCormick Pro Cycling
12.5
12.5
12
Benetton Bimex Cycling
13.875
14.5
12
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
13.875
15
12
Kraftwerk Man Machine
14.5
16
13
Sauber Petronas Racing
15.25
15.5
5
Lotto-Caloi
15.375
14.5
13
Everesting
16.125
15.5
12
Tafjord Kraft
18
18.5
12
Ekoi - Le Creuset
18.75
19
6
Manada Coyote
20.625
21.5
7
Llapi-Vita
21
22
9
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
21.5
22
4
Podium Ambition
23.75
24
1
Let's start at the bottom of the team rankings this time, where 7 of the bottom 8 teams are the promoting teams from the 2023 season. Heading into the transfer season, there were expectations that it would be a challenging endeavor to build deep rosters and this appears to have held true. Llapi-Vita has already hit some good momentum in the Down Under Classic as the year starts, but they clearly have a steep road to climb alongside Manada Coyote, JEWA TIROL, and Podium Ambition. Ekoi-Le Creuset and Tafjord Kraft have served significantly better in the rankings, but not high enough to push them out of the potential relegation battle.
Moving up into those slated to hold in PCT, there's a major grouping from Benetton Bimex Cycling in 13th place down to Everesting in 18th. This group is characterized by high variable rankings with everyone sporting a range of 12 or 13 except for Sauber Petronas Racing, who holds firm around 15-16th in most rankings. This should be a bit of a worry for Sauber where if all the other teams hit their highest expectations, Sauber will see the short end of the stick. In addition to their characterization with high range, this group is represented by a lack of significant GC leadership, outside of Benetton's combo of Reis and Powless.
McCormick and Specialized sit in a small grouping of their own, right outside the top 10. Their teams have depth, outside leadership potential, and high levels of faith from at least some rankings. Specialized has the more consistent rankings and should be considered a mid-table lock unless all eight rankings missed something in their structure.
The 7-10 range of teams is tightly packed, led by DK Zalgiris. No incredibly high rankings for them, but a number of borderline promotion rankings and absolutely no one expecting a bad season put them in a strong position to punch above their ranking as opposed to down. Minions, Team UBS, and Bralirwa - Stevens hold the remaining top 10 positions, each with a slightly less level of certainty. Bralirwa-Stevens has the highest range of any team in the division - that's the cost of Girmay. Minions at 8th is the lowest ranked of the relegating teams after not being able to sell Kinoshita in the offseason. Still, he should be able to provide another year of success here in PCT.
5th and 6th is a deadlock between Indosat Ooredoo and Tryg-Eni. Indosat is one of the most consistent rankings of teams in the rankings, where 5th-8th looks like their sweetspot. Tryg-Eni has a bit more variability, with rankings from 1st to 11th. They'll need more consistency from Demare, which is always a challenge in sprint races.
The top 4 teams each seem secure in their positions with clear delineations in the rankings. ELCO-ABEA is a huge favorite with 4 first place votes and nothing lower than 4th. A strong team on every terrain, they seem prepped to best utilize their RD and return quickly back to PT. Sony - Force India worked a masterful transfer season as well to provide high levels of confidence. 7 rankings in the top 3 have cemented their expectation to head up as well.
Lierse SK- Pizza Ullo PCTeam has expressed slightly less confidence, from both rankings and manager, but they still sit 3rd without question. 6 promotion rankings highlight their strong GC capabilities from Oomen and ability to score across the board. That leaves ISA-Hexacta in the 4th - a range of expectations here, but two 2nd place expectations lead the charge for the just relegated team. They've got a significant buffer over those 5th/6th in the rankings and should have confidence in their ability to return to the top level next year.
The biggest takeaways in these rankings appear to be:
- A true challenge for promoting teams to make a difference in this year's PCT battle
- A relatively secure top of the rankings with much less clarity for teams from 10th - 18th
- Lots of potential upside for individual teams with 15 teams receiving at least 1 top 8 ranking
A little delayed preview to allow a final prediction or two pop up leave the PT ranks with 6 counting predictions this year from 5 different managers. Many thanks to all involved in the discussion and predictions this year across all divisions!
Compiled Rankings
KB
jph27 V0
jph27 V2
KO
Abhi
Cr14
Aker - MOT
16
10
10
11
21
7
Assa Abloy
19
15
15
14
22
9
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
11
19
19
15
13
13
Cedevita
14
16
18
16
10
15
cycleYorkshire
17
18
20
10
18
11
EA Vesuvio
7
13
14
2
2
2
Evonik - ELKO
3
1
1
3
1
1
Fastned
6
20
16
9
3
6
Gazelle
13
4
4
4
15
8
Grieg-Maersk
4
9
13
18
9
10
Jura GIANTS
20
17
17
22
17
22
King Power
1
6
6
1
5
3
Lidl Cycling
22
7
8
20
19
19
MOL Cycling Team
10
22
22
19
14
17
Moser - Sygic
21
8
11
12
12
12
Oxxo - Frisby
5
21
21
8
16
16
Polar
12
3
2
5
4
4
Rabobank
18
12
7
7
8
14
Team Puma - SAP
8
2
5
6
7
5
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
2
11
9
17
6
21
Xero Racing
9
5
3
13
20
18
ZARA - Irizar
15
14
12
21
11
20
Our compiled rankings show a couple stand-out teams, but otherwise a diverse array of rankings across the board, including Tinkoff Team-La Datcha with a 2nd place and a 2nd to last place ranking. Fastned and Xero are similar but for 3rd places. The combined rankings will show much more detail, but even these show us that this is a top-heavy division, with much more fighting to be found in the mid-pack and relegation battle than at the top.
Combined Rankings
Mean
Median
Range
Evonik - ELKO
1.666666667
1
2
King Power
3.666666667
4
5
Polar
5
4
9
Team Puma - SAP
5.5
5.5
6
EA Vesuvio
6.666666667
4.5
12
Gazelle
8
6
11
Fastned
10
7.5
17
Grieg-Maersk
10.5
9.5
14
Rabobank
11
10
11
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
11
10
19
Xero Racing
11.33333333
11
17
Aker - MOT
12.5
10.5
14
Moser - Sygic
12.66666667
12
13
Oxxo - Frisby
14.5
16
16
Cedevita
14.83333333
15.5
8
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
15
14
8
ZARA - Irizar
15.5
14.5
9
Assa Abloy
15.66666667
15
13
cycleYorkshire
15.66666667
17.5
10
Lidl Cycling
15.83333333
19
15
MOL Cycling Team
17.33333333
18
12
Jura GIANTS
19.16666667
18.5
5
Only 6 teams have a mean ranking under 10, showing just how complicated these predictions were this year and how tight the battle could be. Evonik-ELKO is the clear favorite I wonder why... and behind them there's a solid grouping of teams expected in the top 6 - especially as shown by the median rankings. Everyone from Gazelle and up is a true top 3 contender.
Fastned leads the promoting teams into the 7th spot in the aggregate predictions with a very solid set of rankings. The investment in Phinney is a clear part here - as it should be. Looking at mean rankings alone, they lead the competition for the top 10 with Grieg-Maersk, Rabobank, Tinkoff Team - La Datcha, Xero Racing, Aker-MOT, and Moser-Sygic. There isn't much to differentiate the teams, especially since almost all of them at had least one top 6 rankings with many even higher.
Oxxo-Frisby leads the next tier of teams that slides all the way to Lidl Cycling and the relegation positions. Carlsberg had the least variation within this group and are probably the most likely to stay up, as are Zara-Irizar, but those bank on teams living up to their worst rankings more than their best. Always tough to know how to compare teams in this section, especially at the PT level where depth scoring can truly bolster a roster and is one of the more challenging predictions to make.
MOL Cycling and Jura GIANTS certainly have chances to push up above their low combined rankings, but they have the odds stacked against them at this point. Nothing either of these teams can't overcome, but some surprise wins would go a long way.
seancoll wrote:
This shows us just how wide open the majority of the CT field is this year with a few predicted exceptions.
Imo this should be one of the key takeaways from the CT predictions this year. In many past seasons, the quality difference between teams seemed the widest in CT with many teams seemingly quite locked in a certain region of the ranking. This year, it feels a lot more open and there is a much larger number of teams where promotions seems feasible if things go their way.
Past the top three, there's a few pockets of teams best discussed together. The battle from 4th - 9th is a measly 2.4 average score difference. Simba Cement-Tanga Fresh and Duvel-Tsingtao are the clear leaders of this group, but the differences are not enough to automatically slot them into promotion
Thanks for pulling all of this together, sean. Of course in the CT, it looks competitive based on the discrepancy in predictions and that's a clear message, but I had another takeaway.
For the first time I've seen in a little while, it seems a number of the teams relegating from PCT have taken the opportunity to do a full reset and perhaps build more of their regional focuses. Which of course is welcomed for the new managers gunning for promotion straightaway. I think jt, Dippofix, Aycon and myself have been helped by the PCT-relegated teams (aside from Newton) clearing the decks and resetting - at least that's what I would hope happened rather than stagnation.
Interesting to see people think PCT will be similarly stratified, with SotD clearly building a highly competitive ELCO, Abhi's Sony being pushed over the line by Olivier, and Lierse's talent factory paying dividends. But then it gets messy real fast, all the way down to Podium Ambition (which of course leads the PCT in vibez, anyway).
The huge range in PCT really paints the picture that the middle of the pack is very murky water where anything goes this season, going to be a blast following the races this year! Thanks for aggregating these Sean!
Sorry for the delay on PT rankings, which are now up. Hopefully folks enjoy and are able to provide a bit more depth than I could, but wanted to make sure they were up before first rankings.
It will be an interesting PCT season, that's for sure!
