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A Data Driven Preview [CT]
jt1109
Data Points


- We have 4 different data points, The usual Average total, Average depth, weighted average leaders and scoring potential (high scoring stats (e.g. Accel MO/HILL) score more)

- This is then combined to give us an overall team score

- These are combined into an overall division prediction and average finishing position index
 
jt1109
Before the preview lets look at our data points. These will give you an idea of where the teams may place going forward though some of these points factor less into the final rankings (im looking at you Average OVL) then others. As well as this a first in one category does not equal the same in another depending on how high you score in each.


Average OVL


Ethiopian Airlines1
Trans Looney Tunes2
Duvel-Tsingtao3
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh4
Cervelo Test Team5
Euskotren - Pays Basque6
Spark Team NZ7
Genii Hyundai N Cycling8
Newton Foundation p/b Zwift9
SEE Turtles10
Team Würth MODYF11
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team12
Euskadi-Murias13
Zain - Omantel14
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo15
Glanbia16
Babymetal17
Hilcona Racing Team18


Average Depth


Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh1
Cervelo Test Team2
Trans Looney Tunes3
Duvel-Tsingtao4
Euskotren - Pays Basque5
Spark Team NZ6
Ethiopian Airlines7
Newton Foundation p/b Zwift8
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team9
Genii Hyundai N Cycling10
Team Würth MODYF11
Euskadi-Murias12
Zain - Omantel13
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo14
Glanbia15
Babymetal16
SEE Turtles17
Hilcona Racing Team18


Average Leaders


Newton Foundation p/b Zwift1
Duvel-Tsingtao2
Cervelo Test Team3
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh4
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team5
Team Würth MODYF6
Ethiopian Airlines7
Euskadi-Murias8
Babymetal9
Trans Looney Tunes10
Zain - Omantel11
Spark Team NZ12
Genii Hyundai N Cycling13
Hilcona Racing Team14
Euskotren - Pays Basque15
Glanbia16
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo17
SEE Turtles18


Average Big Scorer Potential


Newton Foundation p/b Zwift1
Team Würth MODYF2
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team3
Zain - Omantel4
Duvel-Tsingtao5
Genii Hyundai N Cycling6
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh7
Ethiopian Airlines8
SEE Turtles9
Spark Team NZ10
Euskotren - Pays Basque11
Babymetal12
Cervelo Test Team13
Euskadi-Murias14
Trans Looney Tunes15
Hilcona Racing Team16
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo17
Glanbia18

Edited by jt1109 on 23-09-2024 16:33
 
jt1109
Prediction Table


PredictionTeam NameAverage Finishing Position
1????
2????
3????
4????
5????
6????
7????
8Zain - Omantel 8.65
9Genii Hyundai N Cycling 9.50
10Spark Team NZ 10.05
11Trans Looney Toons 10.55
12Euskadi-Murias 11.25
13Euskotren - Pays Basque11.45
14Babymetal 11.65
15SEE - Turtles13.85
16Hilcona Racing Team15.60
17Air NZ- Alpha Romeo 16.45
18Glanbia 16.65

Edited by jt1109 on 27-09-2024 10:47
 
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Teams 13-18

18th - Glanbia


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/mg212gla2m33035829ddb28d168566aac07aa993f965bc8122.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/NFaYEUd.jpeg

Last Season: 21st PCT


Glanbia Long-time team Glanbia finished 21st in PCT last year behind leader Ryan Eastman and previously finished 3rd in the 2022 CT.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Ian BoswellRyan Eastman
Tom DavidSean Mckenna
Gavin MannionConor Dunne

Boswell is a blast from the past but still competitive in a weak hilly division. David could be a great signing if planned to the also weak (outside of Zepuntke) cobbles division.

Leaders

Dylan Kennett Ian Boswell Tom David

Weighted OVL: A team with lots of talents scores low on OVL is hardly a surprise here though there's a couple of guys such as Bennett or Squire that are maybe just a little too weak even for this Division. 16th

Depth: This teams best scoring category the first 6 riders all have okay-good scoring potential throughout the season I highlight James Oram as someone who can score at a decent rate as the joint 7th best TT rider in the division. 15th

Leaders: Boswell, David fall into the potentially good riders but not stand out and hurt the teams scoring here rather then helping. I really like Kennett on paper but he scored behind Rubushchenko, Welten and Zariff here which limited the teams scoring overall. 16th

Scoring Potential: Bottom of the pile for Big Scoring Potential as has been highlighted above leaders that are in the second tier are hard to predict and one big season from a Tom David could make this look silly but on excel the team couldn't come through. 18th

Average Finishing Position: Placing on average 16.65 with a few finishes in the top 5 but mostly finishing 16th-18th randomiser this could be a long rebuilding season for Glanbia. But there is hope here Ben Healy and Jason Plowright come back from loan next season and there's development to come in a lot of areas. The team is also not without hope of blowing this prediction out the water with some good results for Tom David and Dylan Kennett but it is a strong indication of the overall strength at CT level this year that a team built like this could struggle greatly. 16.65th


17th - Air New Zealand - Alpha Romeo


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/anz2maillo4117aea9c900748fd3bc600eb25398a57d357719.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/IoeitwV.jpeg

Last Season: 19th CT


Air New Zealand - Alpha Romeo Came 2nd bottom of the CT last season behind Fabbro and returned with the same leader this year but a whole new secondary cast behind him

Important riders InImportant riders out
Louis VisserNur Aiman Zariff
Lars Van Der HaarJakub Skala

One of the few benefits of finishing low in the lowest division is you don't have many points to replace if you lose some riders. Losing 2nd and 4th best scorers Zariff and Skala was only a 97-point loss.

Leaders

Matteo Fabbro Tom Scully Lars Van Der Haar

Weighted OVL: A couple of declining 50k riders kept on from last year but mostly talents bring the OVL down which is never a bad thing if you have the top-end talent in my opinion. A couple of potential wastes in the mid-tier and Scully for 120k (10% budget) feels like an overpay. 15th

Depth: The Best category for this team is depth, which is easy to see. Down to Dries De Bondt this team has a rider who on the right day could produce in a one-day classic given the right circumstances with particular focus on Van Der Haar who I would bet will take a flat classic in a breakaway this year with the right amount of opportunities14th

Leaders: Now to the categories that can hurt a team and having a 117-point scoring from last year returning to lead the team hurts the scoring here. While I am a fan of Van Der Haar and De Bondt there is a few riders here that don't appeal to me or the calculations as even viable 50+ scorers.17th

Scoring Potential:Interesting to me this one as I believe Glanbia has better scorers than Air NZ but the acceleration advantage has tipped the scales in this case. That being said it's clear this team will not have a big scorer this season unless it's from breakaways alone and that's a risky strategy in the unpredictable PCM engine.17th

Average Finishing Position: Gaining 0.2 on Glanbia mainly from finishing mid-table more than them (though never promoting in my randomiser) it looks to be a tough season for Air NZ. Though the long rebuild is being played here with 7 lvl 1-2 guys this could be a great cheap foundation for the years to come provided some deadwood is cleared and no large contracts are handed out to average riders from the sponsor's region. 16.45th


16th - Hilcona Racing Team


[img]Erm can't currently find this shirt[/img]

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/bC0qUCh.jpeg

Last Season: 14th CT


Hilcona Racing Team Solid mid-table finish last season behind Kriegar, Keizer and Havik with all bar Keizer returning for this season.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Odd Christian EikingMartijn Keizer
Simon Carr

One of the few benefits of finishing low in the lowest division is you don't have many points to replace if you lose some riders. Losing 2nd and 4th best scorers Zariff and Skala was only a 97-point loss.

Leaders

Odd Christian Eiking Alexander Krieger Yoeri Havik

Weighted OVL: An obvious trend forming as another of the teams low on OVL is very talent heavy as expected. So the team will develop as the years progress though I'm not sure if the value on some of these guys is worth the 3 year development. 18th

Depth: Similar comments as above as some of the talents creep in at the bottom of the team depth impacting this heavily and dropping the team to last in this category. These are the two less important ones though, especially in CT so I wouldn't see this as a massive negative especially when they're filled with talents.18th

Leaders: Here we run into what could hurt Hilcona compared to last in the lack of a true 2nd leader behind Eiking and his solid scoring potential. Havik though has shown his tendency to grab lots of points with good planning and there's potential in Carr and Krieger as well though not as confident in Morin. 14th

Scoring Potential:Here's the first confirmation that the formula didn't like the top-end Punchuers and Sprinters not considered elite as the team doesn't score high on the top-end scoring even with Eiking looking a guarantee for a top 20 ranking. The lack of a second leader and riders for the mountains and TT hurt here. 16th

Average Finishing Position: Our final team of the three that kept coming out rooted to the bottom of CT. Hilcona has some big positives the development is plentiful and this is a team built for the long term. Eiking should provide plenty of fun on the hilly races in the short term though as well as Havik and Krieger in the sprint classics and stage races. 15.6th


15th - SEE Turtles


i.imgur.com/8nxZ7fT.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/gHY1kZk.jpeg

Last Season: 10th CT


SEE Turtles have made a name for themselves with a TT heavy focus especially in the Prologues and had a heavy scoring trio of Oka, Tivani and Hamza to carry them to a respectable 10th.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Julio CardonaAntoine Duchesne
Luke Keough
Similo Nyoni
Magnus Sheffield

More TT guys and a sprinting upgrade in Keough. Sheffield the real prize though and at a cheap wage compared to his talent is a great pickup.

Leaders

Luke Keough German Nicolas Tivani Atushi Oka

Weighted OVL: Some quality depth here especially in the TT and Sprint department, with the outline of a good TTT squad but mostly a prologue army. The cobbles team is less impressive to me at least but still scores well here, especially in a weak division. 10th

Depth: Here the team doesn't fall down exactly just others appear to have more top tier depth. The improvement in the sprint division also brings the teams score down here but with how unpredictable these are that's hard to judge. 17th

Leaders: An unsurprising score on paper for the team who's leader do appear the weakest in a stats terms. The score below though takes into account what this team will most be aiming for. 18th

Scoring Potential: Now we have this teams real strength with no less then 6 riders scoring well in this outcome though it must be noted that none where in the top tier its a very positive sign for this squad overall and shows they will in my opinion over perform all season as they did last season. Special shoutout to Luke Keough here who has a strong chance to be the top scorer sprinter in the division. 9th

Average Finishing Position: With a wide range of possible outcomes here and an average finishing position much higher than their actual position here SEE-Turtles are extremely hard to place. A lot comes down to good planning and some reasonable daily form and this team could very well find themselves promoted this season. The flip side is the TT level is strong and deep in the division this season and a lack of results in that discipline will be make or break for this squad. 13.85th


14th - Babymetal


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/mg232bbm2m728758212827c3917b3bd50d3c6ad4423f5f3664.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/VsH0i56.jpeg

Last Season: 16th CT


Babymetal have Victor Verschaeve returning with Aliaksandr Riabushenko from last year's team which had a quiet first year in CT with a few bright spots.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Cristian Raileanu
Jan Drago Petelin

Two very decent additions here both able to score points at the PCT level last season 86 and 52 respectively and in easier C2 competition this year might bump those numbers.

Leaders

Cristian Raileanu Aliaksandr Riabushenko Jan Drago Petelin

Weighted OVL: As we've come to expect now the talent-heavy teams struggle on this metric. And in this case, a few Asian talents being grown for the area doesn't help either. Along with two expensive sprint fillers that I can't see providing much value hurt too. 17th

Depth: And those same sprint fillers hurt on the depth rankings too, The Better news here is a couple of the unmaxed riders look like they will provide real value later down the line especially Uga Ryuki though a year in CT may hurt his development.17th

Leaders: Now onto a real upside for this squad the depth of the leadership is very good and was well rounded out in the off-season to add a strong hilly classic rider in Raileanu and Petelin for the high mountain classics and stage races that don't suit Verschaeve. The main problem for not being higher is the absence of a real leader through the formula I put in like Riabushenko a lot so I wonder if with better planning and more luck he could get a better score than last season. 9th

Scoring Potential: Less surprising to see the team quite far down in these rankings I would assume but maybe still higher than most think. The reason Riabushchenko, Arashiro and Raileanu all scored points on the big scorer potential. Arashiro and Raileanu are probably not too surprising both have great combos the game has seemed to love this edition. Riabushchenko I am intrigued though as on paper he does have a great sprinter combo. He scored best of the pure sprinters and if he can break the 130pt mark I think thats a good season 12th

Average Finishing Position: Another squad that in last season CT would probably have finished a lot higher but there is so much depth in this years division as evidenced by the teams below that the lack of a Certain leader is hurting teams who have tried to build around the secondary leaders as is the case at least in the data rankings. As mentioned above though plenty to look forward to in the future for this team especially if they can add a strong top tier leader in the future. The team finished mostly mid table in testing though hit the heights of 4th and the lows of 18th so a real anything is possible.11.65th


13th - Euskotren - Pays Basque


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/esk2maillo61154341d8bed7bbf97886e2284fed91f048394.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/QuSI7nR.jpeg

Last Season: 11th CT


Euskotren - Pays Basque got some great scoring out of Mikel Iturria (6th Individual Standings) with backup from Lafay and Wackermann last season to finish a more than respectable 10th place and only 2 spots of being promoted.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Hugo HofstetterSteven Manuel Polanco
Varsham Darbinyan

Upgrades to the sprinting and cobbles departments with Hofsetter and Darbinyan one in the top 10 and one in the top 20 best-cobbled riders in the division while Hofsetter should also challenge for sprint victories.

Leaders

Mikel Itturia Viktor Lafay Varsham Darbinyan

Weighted OVL: Strong team throughout with very little low-end talent or filler riders even down near the bottom of the team. Riders like Weinstein scored well last season and the addition of Poilitt is a similar rider who could pay out with a high point-to-wage ratio.6th

Depth: This team shines in the depth department with at least 15 riders able to score points in this category and that is very evident in their strong backup stats. Look for Wackermann in particular here who scored 100 points last season off his low OVL and should outperform again despite his high price tag for that OVL.5th

Leaders: Unfortunately that's where the good news stops for Euskotren in our data as the surge in quality in both Hills and Mountains in the division has impacted how effective our data believes Lafay and Itturia will be at producing points all season. It's not all doom and gloom though as Darbinyan was picked out as the 3rd highest-scoring on the team due to the weak depth in the cobbled fields and he could provide some much-needed higher scoring. 15th

Scoring Potential: Though still not where the team would like to be just below mid-table finish for Scoring Potential is higher than their leader ranking. This is due to the likes of Itturia, Darbinyan and Lafay scoring nicely here though as noted before the strong field is hurting Itturia with Lafay scoring the highest in this category for the team. 11th

Average Finishing Position: Though they may have ended up on the bottom third of our predictions here don't get it confused this team will be competing all season and is a viable promotion candidate. Taking top 8 promoting into account this team would have been promoted over 20% of the time. The low floor of the leaders though has accounted for plenty of lower-half finishes for the team. I can't lie this is a team after my own heart I love the depth and the number of riders that are possible scoring options but as we've seen in the predictions so far high-end leaders are heavily favoured in this division and when the 33% of team scoring that Itturia provided last year has been heavily eaten into by an increased depth in the division it's hard to see this team in the upper end of the division come the end of the season 11.45th

Edited by jt1109 on 26-09-2024 11:01
 
jt1109
Teams 7-12

12th - Euskadi-Murias


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/eus2maillo66020bff275750bb47fb716edd577eda5c5c4799.jpg

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/1IF4pN5.jpeg

Last Season: 17th CT


Euskadi-Murias had a tough year in the CT finishing close to the bottom. Top scorer Daniel Munoz returns though that was only 75pts which was a sharp decline from a promising 2022.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Mustafa Carsi
Jo Kogstad Ringheim
Luca Sterbini

A really solid window for the team not to lose any of their most prominent scorers from last year and adding new additions in the sprints, TT and cobbles. Really hard to know what to make of all the additions as all have not been in the CT for the last two years. Though Carsi was top 200 in the PT and is the favourite on any pan flat stage

Leaders

Mustafa Carsi Luca Sterbini Jo Kogstad Ringheim

Weighted OVL: Not a massive surprise this is a lower-end team in this metric though moves like keeping Sinkledam for an inflated wage make little sense and also hurt the team. Bar that a couple of solid 50k riders make a real difference too many guys are being slightly overpaid here Quevado and Ablenado for sure. 13th

Depth: Similar score for the team in the depth department though it's promising having Sterbini, Scheit and Garcia all who look capable of point-scoring seasons in the lower ends of the team OVL. Small points for the cobbled depth though I feel both are fairly useless due to the lack of backup stats.12th

Leaders: Now here's where this team comes into its own with a very solid score and a top 8 finish. As shown above Carsi, Ringheim and Sterbini all scored well here and it's clear the manager prioritised some high-value scorers. It has to be said that Ringheim and Sterbini don't reach the top 10 in either discipline though so a lot rests on Carsi and how well the management can plan the super fast sprinter picking out those pan-flat courses. 8th

Scoring Potential: Back to the lower-end scoring range here but not without hope. Carsi again brings the bulk of the points but Serrano and Sterbini both are expected to at least hit some high-value scoring. That being said this is a bare team in the top leader's department if Carsi doesn't produce. 14th

Average Finishing Position: This is one of the main teams where manager planning will be crucial this year probably 2nd only to SEE Turtles (though placing in prologues is easier than sprints) and if we see a great season plan for Carsi this team has a lot of potential to be a high-end mid-table team with the base from last year and the three additional scorers. I think there will be a very fine line between boom or bust here though and if Carsi fails the floor this team could fall too will be very low in the rankings. As the average position shows though this team was hitting mid tables and higher plenty of times in the randomiser coming in 12th in the prediction but an 11.25 average position. An interesting team to watch this season for sure. 11.25th


11th - Trans Looney Toons


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/2e7DZhw5pn4706c8b756c03a626588155fb9064cb300be1393.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/4ioVAUO.jpeg

Last Season: 22nd PCT


Trans Looney Toons return to CT after a spirited effort in PCT last season only finishing a few hundred points off staying in the division. Though without top scorer Lillian Calmejane.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Matevz Govekar Kyeng Ho Min
Giorgi Nareklishvili Lillian Calmejane
Sven Erik Bystrom
Zico Waeynets

A team really torn apart with the strict salary cap losing top scorer Calmejane was rough though keeping Jaka Primozic made the most sense from a long-term planning point of view.

Leaders

Jaka Primozic Roc Korosec Girogi Nareklishvili

Weighted OVL: The first team we've previewed to grab an elite score in a category and with good reason, this team packs 19 riders with scoring capability and even some extra TT depth behind those 19. Unlike most teams we've seen the Cobbles riders are also packing strong backup stats in a variety of ways a very well-built roster from the bottom up.2nd

Depth: Unsurprisingly after success overall the team also goes elite in the depth rankings, guys like James Knox, Cristian Munoz and Oliver Lecourt are all more than capable top 10 finishers on any given day. The only department with any lack of depth is sprinting and with a token leader in Vingerling there is unlikely to be many points good here. 3rd

Leaders: Now some positives and negatives in the leadership roles. Primozic has shown last season what he is capable of and should continue with another strong year alongside Narkeshvilli though both look like lower-end of the elite riders in the division. Korosec is a very capable hilly sprinter and given the right parcour should grab multiple good results during the season. The last leader Moulingui also looks a solid rider in the cobbles but very much in the mould of the others solid but not spectacular. 10th

Scoring Potential: And here is the big problem it would seem for Trans this season. Amazing depth but lacking what a Calmejane or Min could have provided in the heavy scoring department. The team did keep Primozic and he scores a heavy amount of points for the team in this category but he is in a stacked mountains division and how far he can go is anyone's guess but he could ride into 20-25 strong pure climber per race though not many of them can match his back up stats. Beyond him the only other heavy scorer is Narkeshvilli and if he comes out on top in another stacked division in the TT then this team will be climbing fairly above this ranking overall. 15th

Average Finishing Position: This team feel like it had a bit of bad luck with the renewals and subsequent sales of star riders while trying to rebuild for the future and though there was a very solid job done there is a real lack of top-end scoring that could count against the team come the end of the season. Top planning and some luck in the TTs are needed for this team to climb further than our finishing position here in 11th but that would not be out of the question.10.55th


10th - Spark Team NZ


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/Spark2Team3007cf4b75afb611b714de760c0cefb7362a6736.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/jHBhHXG.jpeg

Last Season: 24th PCT


Spark Team NZ returned to CT after finishing bottom of the PCT last season with old MG legends Angel Madrazo and Jack Bobridge. A team rebuild was needed over the off-season

Important riders InImportant riders out
George Bennett Angel Madrazo
Eduard Beltran Jack Bobridge
Jernaj Svab
Luis Enrique Lemus Devila
Anotine Duchesne

Big rebuild completed in the off season with star signing Bennett along with a New core for the hills and a chief domestique in the mountains very productive.

Leaders

George Bennett Eduard Beltran Luis Enrique Lemus Devila

Weighted OVL: Strong group overall for NZ which is pretty impressive considering Rodriguez still takes up 25% of the budget (excellent team-building talent of his ability), Svab was a great addition in the draft to give the team another scoring option though hard to know where exactly he will rank considering he was racing in the PT the last few years. The team carries a lot of talents to add to the core but all are of a good standard even the regionally-focused signings. 7th

Depth: Some nice scoring depth overall here to down to Rodriguez it's easy to see all riders pitching in with some points throughout the season. Notable lack of cobbled or TT riders, the first is a non-issue that can be avoided with planning the 2nd may be a bit trickier given the MG calendar heavy TTT and TT focus but still possible to avoid most for the team's leaders.6th

Leaders: A bit of a drop off here as it's hard to see a true team leader that isn't Bennett here. Beltran has a great Mo/HI combo but I worry with the backup stats and the amount of hilly classics that finish on a kicker having such low resistance (the rate the red bar deteriorates) could end up being a real issue. with most of his rivals having at least a 5-6 advantage in that category. The flip side is to find the races which influence most on the MO side as he can find himself at a huge advantage and the most difficult medium mountain stages. After those two with Cameron Scott a potential stage winner throughout the season and Jake Marryat a potential top 10 in TTs though it could be Bennett chief domestique Lemus Davila who is going under the radar the man scored 217 pts last season good enough for 15th Overall in the CT standings and if planned to be his leader from time to time is good enough to rack up a healthy scoring total. 12th

Scoring Potential: Though not just a one-man team the bulk of this season's scoring is down to Bennett and how well he will fare at the much weaker CT level. For me his TT is going to be a big disadvantage and finding the right races is going to be the key to unlocking his full scoring potential. Carapaz, Jorgensen, Lunke, Arensman and Elosegui are all capable of putting minutes into him in the wrong race setup. That being said there are so many points available in the mountains with the right planning and for me, he is a promotion winner on his own with the right season. Behind him, good planning for Beltran and Davila is needed but both score some points in this category along with Marryat, Svab and Scott though nothing to move the team out of mid-table. 10th

Average Finishing Position: It's a great rebuild after losing the bulk of the team's leaders and having so much budget placed behind one rider, I think Spark Team NZ have given themselves a great chance of promotion this season given the right planning. There is a downside to having such a bed of talent in the short term mainly the lack of secondary leaders but filling in the gaps with Beltran and Lemus Davilla was smart as concentrating on a few disciplines and not stretching the budget to a leader on all terrains. A strong effort that does produce promotion for a few teams in the sim and rarely falls too far down the rankings due to the floor a rider like Bennett has but with the increase in Mountains competition for Davilla it is hard to see where the secondary points will come from so I'm pretty comfortable with a mid-table finish for now with the caveat that Bennett could easily earn the team promotion on his own given the right schedule. 10.05th


9th - Genii Hyundai N Cycling


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/6sGzksn5pn632687100ee41beaab40f15bf32f4fbc7e417887.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/WHJuWTf.jpeg

Last Season: 23rd PCT


Genii Hyundai N Cycling returned to CT without two of their three top scorers from last season with both Penasa and Sicard leaving the team to leave them light on leaders but plenty of cap space to rebuild.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Kristian Haugaard Jensen Pierre Paolo Penasa
Julian Bernard Romain Sicard
Muhamma Afif Ahmad Zamri
Lukas Postlberger

A big rebuild it was indeed. Some great signings picked up here with Haugaard Jensen 14th in the individual rankings last year the pick of the bunch.

Leaders

Kristian Haugaard Jensen William Barta Lukas Postlberger

Weighted OVL: Few talents equal higher in these rankings as we've seen time and time again in this preview. I am a fan of having very few wasted roster spots here with only a couple of riders potentially hurting the team by taking up a roster spot but overall a strong team throughout. 8th

Depth: Solid depth throughout the climbing ranks here varying capabilities and strengths most have made planning the team a bit of a breeze in the high mountains with everything from TT heavy, attackers good MO/HI combos and even a climber who can sprint. A good TT depth in case of any TTT and for the odd TT result is also a bonus though the team does like any real scoring power in Cobbled and Sprint races though these can be avoided mostly and there is a sprint to throw into long stage races with a few flat stages if needed.10th

Leaders: Given top billing to Jensen here with not too much to actually talk about a top puncher in this division has increased competition at the top end but a weaker overall field than last year at least in the C2 races. Will Barta comes off the back of a strong season at PCT level (140pt), you would think he would improve that total down a division but the overall quality of the mountains field may mean reproducing that scorer would be classed as a good year. Postlberger as well drops down two divisions and is hard to place as a scorer but has some good backup stats to do well in TT-heavy events. 13th

Scoring Potential:One of the surprises of the scoring system initially for me but on closer inspection maybe not surprising at all. A strong TT mountains rider has been favoured quite a lot in this version of the game and Genii boasts three of these riders and another two TT riders capable of good results there. Added to a top 20 individual rankings rider in Jensen and you have the base for plenty of spikes throughout the season should the luck fall your way. 6th

Average Finishing Position: Overall this team has a very solid look and a very high floor with Jensen guaranteeing a good chunk of points on his own. There's probably a lack of a definitive Mountains leader to send this squad into the promotion contenders category but this team with the right results along the way could push them further up the rankings. This feels like one of the safest bets in the whole division that the team will end up somewhere from 7th-11th and the algorithm agreed slapping them nearly bang on 9th with a 9.25 average position. 9.25th


8th - Zain - Omantel


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/mg242zoi2m3160c2a4f8b107bf75035f12af7b66c9cac8679.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/xa12vCp.jpeg

Last Season: New MG team 2024


Zain - Omantel joins a brand new team becoming the only team based out of the Middle East in the MG.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Richard Carapaz
Riccardo Minali
Milos Borisavljevic

One huge new signing to the CT with Carapaz joining the team with two additional leaders in Minali for the sprints and Borisavljevic a secondary leader in the mountains.

Leaders

Richard Carapaz Riccardo Minali Milos Borisavljevic

Weighted OVL: Plenty of new talent here from the team region brings a score down a little bit and a couple are on the older side but with a very specific focus region the options were limited. All maxed riders though give good scoring opportunities and with most on minimum wages, it gave plenty of flexibility on the upper end of the roster. 14th

Depth: Very similar to the above rankings as a couple of unmaxed guys sneak in at the bottom of the depth. Guys like the La Lavandier twins and Lachine Saber are sneaky points scorers in the right type of races though while David Bartl is a potential TT result given the right profile but will likely ride in a helper role most of the season. 13th

Leaders: Now to the real part of this team there is a strong core of leaders here with Carapaz leading though Borisavljevic is more than capable of having a very strong season if given his opportunities for the year. Behind him, Minali and Bartl should add some points and hills leader Sirironnachai on the right route with less emphasis on MO stat may also score. 11th

Scoring Potential: A very high position in this category came down to two riders scoring in the top apex of the division. Carapaz comes out as the number 3 scorer in the division this season some high praise which I think mostly comes down to the lack of top climbers that can TT (there are some obvious exceptions) though of the 17 riders with above 78 mountains, only 6 have a TT better than 70. To add to that Borisavljevic has the best TT of all riders with 77 Mountains. I feel the only reason Carapaz hasn't come top is his low acceleration and some absurd backup stats for his main competition but these two should carry this team a long way this season despite the relative lack of scoring others can provide. 4th

Average Finishing Position: Could this team be this year Crabbe-CC Chevigny I'd say it's not out of the question that if Carapaz finds the right C1 race to target he can easily come away with a big scoring haul for the season to move this team up into the promotion spots single-handedly. Will they win the division, no there's one outlier team this year but this team could go a long way. To play devil's advocate now though if Carapaz doesn't perform the floor this team falls to could be very low as there's no real depth underneath to sustain an underperforming leader and that is why they have ended up with an 8.65th average finishing position. But they are one team that can dream of promotion for sure.8.65th


7th - Ethiopian Airlines


pcmdaily.com/images/shirtdb/ethiopian27110b228fe7f6e3e3afbbc5e5f5f4fdacd0a5964.png

Spoiler
i.imgur.com/OlHFQGD.jpeg

Last Season: New MG team 2024


Ethiopian Airlines joins a brand new team for the man-game but not a brand new manager, Dippoflex originally managed a Bank of Ireland team back in the 2014-2016 MG seasons.

Important riders InImportant riders out
Sven Erik Bystrom
Pierre Paolo Penasa
Ryan Gibbons
Juan Ernesto Chamorro

The table probably wouldn't be able to include all the signings made by Ethiopians but there are plenty more important ones that's for sure. Three strong leaders in Bystrom, Gibbons and Penasa are the headlines.
Leaders

Sven Erik Bystrom Pierre Paolo Penasa Ryan Gibbons

Weighted OVL: We have our first highest-ranking team of the preview and deserved it. This team hasn't wasted a single roster spot with even Kenyan talent Kipruto able to get over the hills and sprint to a good enough standard for breakaways. A personal favourite is Felix English who could be underrated but has perfect stats to disrupt the flat classics this year with his high flat/accel combo good stamina and sprint.1st

Depth: Interestingly this team instantly does fall in the rankings once depth is taken into account mostly due to others having more talents on their team which can impact the overall team. Don't get it wrong though this team still has great depth for the division Berhane, Schönberger, Grmay and Goncalves all are good Mo/Hill guys who could have strong rides at points in the season while Frison is a solid TT option. 7th

Leaders: Another stable position for the team in the top half for leaders. Though I would proceed with caution here as Bystrom struggled last season at the PCT level though this could change going down a division into a much weaker field in C2 events it is interesting to note. Penasa on the other hand was a very strong rider in the PCT field last year just outside the top 50 in the Individual standings. He should go well despite his first decline this season though a strong mountain field could hurt him there as well. Finally, Ryan Gibbons should be a solid top-10 option in the sprints all year and gain a solid amount of points for the team throughout the season. 7th

Scoring Potential: A slightly surprises strong finish for the team here in my own opinion but Penasa, Gibbons and Chamorro all contributed all Bystrom scores are a lot better than expected though still not as huge as expected seeing Eiking score from earlier in the preview though perhaps down to how bad the field in the hills is this season he will get away with a low mo/hill ratio in more races. The good news for Ethiopians is the amount of riders in the mountains adding value here with Berhane, Penasa and Chamorro combining to contribute a healthy score on their way to 8th in this category.8th

Average Finishing Position: The depth play is something that has worked well in many different CT years Tafjord Kraft last season used depth to hit a top 5 in the rankings without a top 30 scorer and this team gives similar vibes this season to me. There isn't to my eye one outstanding scorer on the team, even then there are enough balanced high-floor riders that they still have the high-scoring ability on the team as a collective according to the algorithm. This intrigues me and this could be a team that you don't see towards the front of the MG photos much this season but will always be lurking in the background picking up the points along the way. It's quite apt then that they finish these rankings lurking outside the promotion zone in 7th if there's one team that will take advantage of underperformance on star riders this season I wouldn't be surprised if it's this one.7.10th

Edited by jt1109 on 27-09-2024 20:30
 
jt1109
Teams 1-6
 
jt1109
Hi All,

Thats the reserved posting finished so feel free to comment from now onwards. I've updated our 18th placed team (sorry Glanbia) above to give you a feel for the preview and what the categories look for in particular.
 
Ezeefreak
I like the style of presenting the result here. Nice to read.
Though I dont think Glanbia looks like 8th to me too but if Data says so Grin
i.imgur.com/wu8Njxa.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
jt1109
Ezeefreak wrote:

I like the style of presenting the result here. Nice to read.
Though I dont think Glanbia looks like 8th to me too but if Data says so Grin


100% they wouldn't have been my choice but I guess no matter the model a human also knows the peculiar engine that is the wonderful PCM Grin
 
Booker
Loving this preview and the format, thanks for all the effort you’re putting into this, jt!

Looking forward to see the remainder fall into place and will give my outrageous views and disagreements more fully around the end Pfft
 
seancoll
Very, very excited to see the full preview. Less and less excited to see where I am, but that was common last year, too. We'll see whether predictions are a fluke or whether last year's overperformances are what made the difference.
MG Manager - SEE Turtles
 
jt1109
And that's the first third of the Preview done.

13th through 18th done thank you for reading so far


Booker wrote:

Loving this preview and the format, thanks for all the effort you’re putting into this, jt!

Looking forward to see the remainder fall into place and will give my outrageous views and disagreements more fully around the end Pfft


Thanks Booker really appreciate it though I highly doubt your going to disagree with where your team places Grin

seancoll wrote:

Very, very excited to see the full preview. Less and less excited to see where I am, but that was common last year, too. We'll see whether predictions are a fluke or whether last year's overperformances are what made the difference.


I think especially in a data preview your team will never place as high in real life and getting your team higher was a real challenge during my editing.
 
whitejersey
Great work so far!
 
Caspi
Very nice read so far! Looking forward to see the rest of the predictions Smile
 
Ezeefreak
Besides Glanbia being that low I think In generall I agree so far. Also I expect soon to see ourselves here, hopefully we can still postpone that a bit Pfft

In generally I love that prediction here and look forward to every new entry and how you present and discuss them!

Great work, keep it up Smile
i.imgur.com/wu8Njxa.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
jt1109
We are halfway now guys with spots 10 - 12 updated



Caspi wrote:

Very nice read so far! Looking forward to see the rest of the predictions Smile


whitejersey wrote:

Great work so far!


Much appreciated guys Grin

Ezeefreak wrote:

Besides Glanbia being that low I think In generall I agree so far. Also I expect soon to see ourselves here, hopefully we can still postpone that a bit Pfft

In generally I love that prediction here and look forward to every new entry and how you present and discuss them!

Great work, keep it up Smile


Yeah unsure on Glanbia certainly should be a few spots higher but can't see them cracking top 12 for instance. SEE Turtles is the one so far I think could be much higher but really hard to accurately predict that team just using the stats.
 
Jakstar22
I was hoping for higher but as you said, it completely depends on my backing scorers. Thanks for the information written though! Really interesting to read so far! Great work!
 
ivaneurope
I have no expectations to be honest, so mid-table finish is a realistic prediction. Perhaps a serious reboot is on the horizon for 2025
i.imgur.com/rrQH4R2.png
i.imgur.com/KoxIGiG.png
 
Aycon97
At first thank you for this nice way of a prediction, i am following it every time I am on here ^-^

I am honestly surprised my team came that "late". Sure I am happy about my top signings but like you said also below it lacks some depth at the moment with my regional riders. But I hope this will change in the future and I also hope I can live up to the prediction and If I am able to come in top 10 at the end I would be happy!
 
jt1109
And we are heading for the home stretch teams 7-12 now completed


Jakstar22 wrote:

I was hoping for higher but as you said, it completely depends on my backing scorers. Thanks for the information written though! Really interesting to read so far! Great work!


Very much a team that could go higher yourselves Jak just a shame for you how many in the league went heavy in the mountains (not a surprise after Chamorro last season) which has created a surplus at the top of good riders and spreads their points a bit thin.

ivaneurope wrote:

I have no expectations to be honest, so mid-table finish is a realistic prediction. Perhaps a serious reboot is on the horizon for 2025


I think your team is exceptionally solid Ivan and you'll have plenty to cheer on this season probably just lacking the Mountains leader for your solid mountains core to be at the top but if you had a Carapaz, Bennett, Arensman, Lunke type rider I'd say you step up another level.

Aycon97 wrote:

At first thank you for this nice way of a prediction, i am following it every time I am on here ^-^

I am honestly surprised my team came that "late". Sure I am happy about my top signings but like you said also below it lacks some depth at the moment with my regional riders. But I hope this will change in the future and I also hope I can live up to the prediction and If I am able to come in top 10 at the end I would be happy!


Thank you for the kind words, a very top-heavy team obviously but when you could potentially field the best mountain rider in the division that tends to be enough to get promoted a lot of the time in CT. It could be very much a go big or go home season for your guys but potential is there for sure.
 
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